Magic Numbers 2017/2018

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:40 pm

MrTopTier wrote:Like the fact, based on the last six results, we will finish above Manchester Utd.

Yes, I'm going to be following our magic numbers v the "top 6" from now. ManC down to 94 - it was over 100 a few matches ago.

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aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:26 am

Now that we're over 10 games I've added in the extrapolated position based on 10 games form.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:47 pm

Newcastle, Southampton, WBA and, of course, the current bottom 3 are the teams that should be concerned, going on how things are changing from the 6-game form compared to the 10-game form.

Unless those teams notch another victory soon they could well find themselves in the soft and sticky (if they aren't there already!).

Still relatively early days, though, I suppose........

thedoge · Post by **thedoge** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:58 pm

Any updates on the Magic Numbers

CrispyClaret · Post by **CrispyClaret** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:22 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:18 pm

looking good

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:16 pm

Over the last 2matches some of the bottom sides magic numbers have dropped by 12 points
After 12 matches
Everton.............-8..........69
West Brom ........-12.........67
West Ham..........-12.........66
Swansea............-12.........65
Palace..............11..........62
I’m hoping there will be a half a dozen under 60 by 15 matches. Although at this rate there may be 1 or 2 under 50!!
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Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:43 am

All done this week, with 12 games completed by all.....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:21 pm

Week 13 completed, now over a third of the way through the season....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:50 pm

After such a frustrating day, it's helpful to be reminded that the bottom three have moved nearer to zero i.e. we are still heading towards safety at a rate of knots.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:44 pm

Week 14 signed and sealed, after Saturday, we'll be able to compare this season to week 15 last time round....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:07 pm

After 14 matches

West Brom ........60
West Ham .........58
Swansea ...........57
Palace..............57

With one match left until we’ve played 15 we have 3 teams under 60 and one on 60.
Over the last four matches these four teams magic numbers have dropped by
West Brom.......19
West Ham........20
Swansea..........20
Palace............16

As silly as it sounds if we carry on at this rate by the time we get to 20 matches we could have some magic numbers in the 20’s, and that would be after the Man Utd match.
What a time to be a claret!!!!!!!!

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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:12 pm

Just been looking at the next round of fixtures. Four of the bottom five play each other whilst the fifth, West Ham, play Man City away.
West Brom v Palace
Stoke v Swansea
Man City v West Ham
Two draws and a thumping City win will help the magic numbers tumble a little further. Even if there are wins in the West Brom and Stoke matches some of the numbers still go down.
Happy days
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:23 pm

Looking a little further, the next three matches for the bottom five
Stoke..61
Swansea home
Tottenham away
Burnley away

West Brom ..60
Palace Home
Swansea away
Liverpool away

West Ham ..58
Man City away
Chelsea Home
Arsenal Home

Swansea..57
Stoke away
West Brom home
Man City Home

Palace..57
West Brom away
Bournemouth home
Watford home

Should see some reduction in the magic numbers across all five teams.
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:22 pm

With 15 matches played ( I cant see West ham getting anything at Man City,so we'll knock 3 points off) the bottom looks like this.
Newcastle.......60
Huddersfield....60
West Brom......58
West Ham ......58 (still to get beat by Man City).
Palace............55
Swansea.........54
With Bournemouth to play Southampton they could also be down to 60 or below if they don't win !!!
The comparisons with last year and from 5 matches ago will be along later.
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:48 pm

Over the last 5 matches (10 to 15)some teams at the bottom have had their Magic Numbers devastated. We have affected everyones number by 9 (3 wins).
Newcastle.....Lost 4...Drawn 1...-14 - 9 = -23
Huddersfield..Lost 4 ..............-12 - 9 = -21
West Brom ...Lost 2 ..Drawn 3.. -12 - 9 = -21
West Ham....Lost 4...Drawn 1.. -14 - 9 = -23 ( assuming they lose to Man City)
Palace.........Lost 1.. Drawn 3.. - 9 - 9 = -18
Swansea .....Lost 4 .. Drawn 1.. -14 - 9 = -23
If the magic numbers carry on dropping at this rate then we could see some teams down to single figures by match 25 which is January 31st away at Newcastle!!
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evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:22 pm

This is fabulous stuff.
Even if the Brady catastrophe does cause a blip or two, we should be home and dry by Easter at the very, very latest.
It's up to Taylor, Wells or Arfield to seize the chance they've been waiting for.
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:08 pm

After 15 matches

Bournemouth........60
Newcastle.............60
Huddersfield.........60
West Bromwich....58
Palace...................55
West Ham.............55
Swansea...............54

After 15 matches last season

Palace.................67
Middlesbrough...67
West Ham...........65
Swansea.............64
Hull......................64
Sunderland.........63

That means the magic numbers are 9 points less than last year. 10 if you want to count goal difference.
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Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:04 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:After 15 matches

Bournemouth........60
Newcastle.............60
Huddersfield.........60
West Bromwich....58
Palace...................55
West Ham.............55
Swansea...............54

After 15 matches last season

Palace.................67
Middlesbrough...67
West Ham...........65
Swansea.............64
Hull......................64
Sunderland.........63

That means the magic numbers are 9 points less than last year. 10 if you want to count goal difference.
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That's interesting to see that of the bottom 6 last season, take out the 3 that were relegated and we've got the bottom 3 for this season.

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:42 pm

Going down rapidly. I hope it continues.

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:10 pm

If I work it out correctly then it is Palace now on 50, Swansea on 51 and West Ham on 52! And there are still 2 games to go before we reach the halfway mark of the season!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:15 pm

Well another successful weekend brings a further reduction all round in the magic numbers
After 16 matches
Bournemouth ...-5......55
Stoke..............-6......55
Newcastle .......-6......54
West Brom .......-6......52
West Ham ........-3......52
Swansea...........-3......51
Palace.............-5......50
With a win on Tuesday we could see all these teams under 50
What a time to be a Claret
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Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:25 pm

Don't mean to put a commentator's curse on things here, but do we need this focus on the teams at the bottom. Maybe we could post the teams at the top, as well, given the way we're performing and pushing, as unlikely as it seems, for a European place. (I know the full list is available on the spreadsheet links but I'm talking about posting updates it's always those at the bottom of the table that get posted....I know, I've been as guilty as anyone!)

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:33 pm

First things first, Goddy, first things first - it won't be long.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:41 pm

If we were to get zero points from now we would be close to staying up !!!

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:19 pm

We are still in the wonderful position of having so many teams below us when any of them get a win they are taking the points from another.

19 more defeats will see off the bottom 4

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:05 pm

Week 16 has come and gone......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview

11 Teams on sixty or below... last season, we didn't get to 29 points until the 1-0 home win v Leicester on 31st January, and then only picked up 11 points from the remaining 15 games, out of 45 available, so it's looking promising !

Last year, Southampton finished 8th on 46 points, and received £25,240,917 merit payment ( prize money ) from the EPL, we finished 16th and got £9,708,045. I doubt this year's figures will differ much, and that would be an extra £15,532,872 in our coffers, if we finished 8th..

It's easy to get blase about the TV money, but £15.5 million still looks a decent wedge to me !!

CnBtruntru · Post by **CnBtruntru** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:11 pm

Clarets4me wrote:Week 16 has come and gone......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview

11 Teams on sixty or below... last season, we didn't get to 29 points until the 1-0 home win v Leicester on 31st January, and then only picked up 11 points from the remaining 15 games, out of 45 available, so it's looking promising !

Last year, Southampton finished 8th on 46 points, and received £25,240,917 merit payment ( prize money ) from the EPL, we finished 16th and got £9,708,045. I doubt this year's figures will differ much, and that would be an extra £15,532,872 in our coffers, if we finished 8th..

It's easy to get blase about the TV money, but £15.5 million still looks a decent wedge to me !!

Aye, that's 2 players on 50,000 a week x 3 years, wonder if that Bale guy will be available?

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:12 am

Clarets4me wrote:Week 16 has come and gone......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview

11 Teams on sixty or below... last season, we didn't get to 29 points until the 1-0 home win v Leicester on 31st January, and then only picked up 11 points from the remaining 15 games, out of 45 available, so it's looking promising !

Last year, Southampton finished 8th on 46 points, and received £25,240,917 merit payment ( prize money ) from the EPL, we finished 16th and got £9,708,045. I doubt this year's figures will differ much, and that would be an extra £15,532,872 in our coffers, if we finished 8th..

It's easy to get blase about the TV money, but £15.5 million still looks a decent wedge to me !!

well said

CrispyClaret · Post by **CrispyClaret** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:48 pm

After our 17th game the bottom 4 are now under 50 points
Crystal Palace 47
West Brom 49
West Ham 49
Swansea 48

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:54 pm

CrispyClaret wrote:After our 17th game the bottom 4 are now under 50 points
Crystal Palace 47
West Brom 49
West Ham 49
Swansea 48

As are 15th place Stoke .... also on 49

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:57 pm

Also worth noting that games in hand aren't a good thing in Magic Numbers as those numbers are assuming that teams will win their game in hand.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:50 pm

Match week 17 all completed... now showing 8 Clubs with Magic numbers at 50 or below ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:50 am

Not sure that the numbers are really that relevant any more given our current points haul. With 3 more wins, maybe even 2, we'll have enough points to stop up but the magic numbers for the bottom teams will still be in the high 30s.

At this current rate we'll have over 50 points before the bottom 3 get to 0 on the magic numbers.

What a difference to previous years where the numbers were a great way of figuring out our survival chances!

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:04 am

Croydon Claret wrote:Not sure that the numbers are really that relevant any more given our current points haul. With 3 more wins, maybe even 2, well have enough points to stop up but the magic numbers for the bottom teams will still be in the high 30s.
At this current rate we'll have over 50 points before the bottom 3 get to 0 on the magic numbers.
What a difference to previous years where the numbers were a great way of figuring out our survival chances!

Whilst taking your point, the numbers will be interesting in so far as once Clubs start slipping towards 0, and then into minus numbers, then it will indicate the lowest position we can finish, and our likely " merit payment ", ( Prize money ) which starts at £ 7.75m for 17th, and increases by roughly £1.9m per place...

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 am

We should be running a sweep on the date 3 teams reach zero.
I'll open up with March 3rd

Blackrod · Post by **Blackrod** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:19 am

Can someone remind me how this works again ? Thanks

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:34 am

Burnley win a game...every other Club loses 3 points...
If Chelsea play Brighton for example, and Chelsea win, then their number remains the same and Brighton lose 3 points....also if Asenal play Spurs and draw, then both sides lose 2 points and so on...
Once a team gets to 0, then they cannot finish above Burnley in the final table...

Once we have three teams at 0 or in minus figures, Burnley are safe...

Mathematically, we would be safe earlier than that point because " Magic Numbers " takes no account of teams having to play each other....

Ric_C · Post by **Ric_C** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:44 am

So if we finish 7th for example, that would be an extra 19 million in prize money from where we finished last season.

Which would pay the wages of 7 players on £50k per week for a year.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:02 am

Surely this is what we should be looking at:

Man City 82
Man Utd 71
Chelsea 68
Spurs 64
Liverpool 64
Arsenal 63

In terms of how it works, the magic numbers represents the theoretical maximum number of points that Burnley would need to get to finish above that team (even if that team won every remaining game). The closer they are to zero, the less likelihood is that they will finish above Burnley.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:07 am

Ric_C wrote:So if we finish 7th for example, that would be an extra 19 million in prize money from where we finished last season.
Which would pay the wages of 7 players on £50k per week for a year.

Everton finished 7th and got £27,182,526....we got £9,708,045 for our 16th place.. so it's £17,474,481 to be precise, I look at it as the new Gawthorpe, and the new facilities for fans who live with disabilities paid for....or alternatively, more than twice as much as B******n Rovers total turnover for the entire season !!

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:43 am

Half the league could be under 50 after weekend.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:19 pm

Magic Numbers for the European places. Now that would be something I never expected in my lifetime!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:12 pm

After 17 matches the bottom teams look like this

Southampton .....-6.....51
Huddersfield .....-6.....51
Brighton...........-6......50
Bournemouth .....-6.....49
Stoke ..............-6......49
Newcastle .........-6.....48
West Brom ........-5......47
Palace .............-3......47
West Ham .........-5......47
Swansea ...........-6......45

Ooh they tumble again
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Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:58 am

Not completely related to Magic Numbers but interesting that in the first half of the Dyche PL years we've picked up
16 points
23 points
31? Points

We've almost doubled the points tally for the first season.

In the second half of the season we've picked up 17 points in both campaigns.

So barring a massive collapse we would realistically expect to at least match those 17 points. (48 points)

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:56 am

Caernarfon_Claret wrote:Not completely related to Magic Numbers but interesting that in the first half of the Dyche PL years we've picked up
16 points
23 points
31? Points

We've almost doubled the points tally for the first season.

In the second half of the season we've picked up 17 points in both campaigns.

So barring a massive collapse we would realistically expect to at least match those 17 points. (48 points)

And still two matches from halfway, C_C. Bloody marvellous.

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:17 pm

A stat from The BBC website.

All but one of the 86 previous teams to have earned at least 31 points from their first 17 games of a Premier League season have ended that season in the top 10; 81 went on to finish in the top six.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:34 pm

Next three matches

Southampton
Chelsea away
Huddersfield home
Tottenham away

Huddersfield
Watford away
Southampton away
Stoke home

Brighton
Burnley home
Watford home
Chelsea away

Bournemouth
Liverpool home
Man City away
West Ham Home

Stoke
West Ham Home
West Brom Home
Huddersfield away

Newcastle
Arsenal away
West Ham away
Man City Home

West Brom
Man Utd Home
Stoke away
Everton home

Palace
Leicester away
Swansea away
Arsenal Home

West Ham
Stoke away
Newcastle home
Bournemouth away

Swansea
Everton away
Palace Home
Liverpool away

Quite a lot of matches against each other so further reductions in the magic numbers. Some could be under 40 after these next 3 matches.

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Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:06 am

Soon we'll only need to reach 70 points to be safe.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:44 pm

Commy wrote:Half the league could be under 50 after weekend.

I usually wait for the full round of matches, but as we stand, half the League are now on 50 points or below...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#