Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:57 am
We only need to reach 76 points.
Nice castCaernarfon_Claret wrote:We only need to reach 76 points.
UTC
http://uptheclarets.com/messageboard/
Magic Numbers 2017/2018
http://uptheclarets.com/messageboard/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=20589
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Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:14 pm
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:18 pm
CrispyClaret wrote:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:27 pm
More a light hearted joke, but if you see it that way, fair enough.Vince Fontaine wrote:Nice cast
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:42 pm
Link for the new page
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Bournemouth dropping by 3 more as I type
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:49 pm
After 18 matches
Huddersfield.........-1........50
Southampton.......-4.........47
Brighton...............-3..........47
Palace.................-1...........46
West Ham...........-1...........46
Bournemouth.....-4...........45
Stoke..................-4...........45
Newcastle...........-4..........44
West Brom.........-4...........43
Swansea...........-4............41
UTC
Huddersfield.........-1........50
Southampton.......-4.........47
Brighton...............-3..........47
Palace.................-1...........46
West Ham...........-1...........46
Bournemouth.....-4...........45
Stoke..................-4...........45
Newcastle...........-4..........44
West Brom.........-4...........43
Swansea...........-4............41
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:00 pm
With 5 of the bottom 10 sides losing 10 points over the last 2 matches the magic number s continue to drop at a very healthy rate.
I think we could see the first of these teams down to single figures before the end of January.
UTC
I think we could see the first of these teams down to single figures before the end of January.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:18 am
Week 19 completed, exactly half way through the season.....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:57 pm
Into the 30s we go.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:36 pm
The bottom 10 after 20 (19 for Crystal Palace) matches. They’ve dropped again
Huddersfield..-3....45
Brighton.......-4....43
Stoke...........-3....42
Southampton..-4....41
Newcastle.....-4.....40
Palace.................43..(19)
West Ham.......-3...40
Bournemouth...-3...39
West Brom.......-3...37
Swansea..........-4..35
Looking good
UTC
Huddersfield..-3....45
Brighton.......-4....43
Stoke...........-3....42
Southampton..-4....41
Newcastle.....-4.....40
Palace.................43..(19)
West Ham.......-3...40
Bournemouth...-3...39
West Brom.......-3...37
Swansea..........-4..35
Looking good
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:55 pm
Over the last 5 matches the numbers have dropped nicely
Huddersfield .....60...-15.....45
Brighton ..........62....-19....43
Stoke...............61....-19....42
Southampton .....62...-21....41
Newcastle .........60...-20.....40
Palace ..............55...-12....43..(19)
West Ham ..........55...-15....40
Bournemouth ......60...-21....39
West Brom .........58...-21....37
Swansea ............54...-19....35
Some are dropping at a rate of over 4 a match and that is with us only affecting the magic numbers by 8. We could be safe in less than 10 matches around, our tenth match from now is West Ham away on March 10th.
UTC
Huddersfield .....60...-15.....45
Brighton ..........62....-19....43
Stoke...............61....-19....42
Southampton .....62...-21....41
Newcastle .........60...-20.....40
Palace ..............55...-12....43..(19)
West Ham ..........55...-15....40
Bournemouth ......60...-21....39
West Brom .........58...-21....37
Swansea ............54...-19....35
Some are dropping at a rate of over 4 a match and that is with us only affecting the magic numbers by 8. We could be safe in less than 10 matches around, our tenth match from now is West Ham away on March 10th.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:35 am
The elephant in the room with these figures is that we could be safe within 1 matchVince Fontaine wrote:Over the last 5 matches the numbers have dropped nicely
Huddersfield .....60...-15.....45
Brighton ..........62....-19....43
Stoke...............61....-19....42
Southampton .....62...-21....41
Newcastle .........60...-20.....40
Palace ..............55...-12....43..(19)
West Ham ..........55...-15....40
Bournemouth ......60...-21....39
West Brom .........58...-21....37
Swansea ............54...-19....35
Some are dropping at a rate of over 4 a match and that is with us only affecting the magic numbers by 8. We could be safe in less than 10 matches around, our tenth match from now is West Ham away on March 10th.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:50 am
True but we wouldn't find out until the bottom 3 could no longer reach 36 points, which might not be until March or April, by which time we'd hopefully be on over 50 points.Croydon Claret wrote:The elephant in the room with these figures is that we could be safe within 1 match
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:35 pm
We shuold be looking at Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Everton, Watford and Leicester in these numbers 
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:57 pm
Week 20 complete, after Arsenal's win at Palace......
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Week 20 from 2016/17 is available for comparison, at the link above...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Week 20 from 2016/17 is available for comparison, at the link above...
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:07 pm
Interestingly, last season Everton had only 30 points from 20 matches in 7th spot and they finished with 61 points.Clarets4me wrote:Week 20 complete, after Arsenal's win at Palace......
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Week 20 from 2016/17 is available for comparison, at the link above...
Europe is definitely on!
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:27 pm
In a strange season, Southampton finished 8th on 46 points ..... 15 points behind Everton in 7th, we finished 16th, only 6 points behind Southampton, just goes to show how tight it can be...Spijed wrote:Interestingly, last season Everton had only 30 points from 20 matches in 7th spot and they finished with 61 points.
Europe is definitely on!
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:04 am
Week 21 fixtures done, only missing a Tottenham v West Ham fixture that's yet to be played....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Fixtures coming thick and fast this week, before the FA Cup 3rd Round weekend....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Fixtures coming thick and fast this week, before the FA Cup 3rd Round weekend....
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 pm
Week 22 nearly done, Arsenal v Chelsea and Spurs v West Ham outstanding....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Our next three League games are, Palace ( A ), Man Utd ( H ) and Newcastle ( A )
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Our next three League games are, Palace ( A ), Man Utd ( H ) and Newcastle ( A )
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:31 am
3rd from bottom after 22 matches is on 20 pts. Last season it was 16 pts so you might need 38-39 pts to survive.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:11 am
Someone, I forget who, made a decent point on the radio tonight...Spijed wrote:3rd from bottom after 22 matches is on 20 pts. Last season it was 16 pts so you might need 38-39 pts to survive.
Swansea and WBA ( 16 points ) each have 5 games left against one of the big six... broadly speaking you can write them off, barring the odd draw or fluke win, that then leaves them 11 games in which to get 24 points to get to 40 points..the same is also true of both Stoke and Southampton, both on 20 points, who'd need 20 points off 11 games to get to 40 points..
Just noticed, Stoke, Swansea and Southampton also have to go to Leicester who seem to be on fire at present...
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:50 am
After 22 games none of the bottom 8 average better than a point a game.
With only 16 matches left we could be safe already but last season we were saying the same before it all went tits up, until the Palace match.
With only 16 matches left we could be safe already but last season we were saying the same before it all went tits up, until the Palace match.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:56 pm
After 22 matches (West Ham 21)
Huddersfield.......-6....39
Brighton............-5......38
Newcastle.........-3.....37
Palace.............-3.......37
Bournemouth..-3......36
West Ham........-1.....39...(still to play Tottenham)
Southampton.-6.......35
Stoke..............-7.......35
West Brom....-6........31
Swansea.......-4........31
We've affected every team by 1 point, except Huddersfield (-3) over the last 2 matches.
UTC
Huddersfield.......-6....39
Brighton............-5......38
Newcastle.........-3.....37
Palace.............-3.......37
Bournemouth..-3......36
West Ham........-1.....39...(still to play Tottenham)
Southampton.-6.......35
Stoke..............-7.......35
West Brom....-6........31
Swansea.......-4........31
We've affected every team by 1 point, except Huddersfield (-3) over the last 2 matches.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:10 pm
Over the last 7 matches the bottom 5 teams have reduced by
Bournemouth.....-24.......36
West Ham...........-16.......39 (still to play Tottenham)
Stoke..................-26........35
West Brom.........-27........31
Swansea............-23........31
We've affected every team by 9 points except Stoke (-12)
UTC
Bournemouth.....-24.......36
West Ham...........-16.......39 (still to play Tottenham)
Stoke..................-26........35
West Brom.........-27........31
Swansea............-23........31
We've affected every team by 9 points except Stoke (-12)
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:20 pm
Our next 7 matches are
Palace away
Man Utd home
Newcastle away
Man City home
Swansea away
Southampton home
Everton home
It shouldn't be long before we see a team in single figures and hopefully by the end of these we will have one or two at 0.
UTC
Palace away
Man Utd home
Newcastle away
Man City home
Swansea away
Southampton home
Everton home
It shouldn't be long before we see a team in single figures and hopefully by the end of these we will have one or two at 0.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:26 pm
Should we now have a Europa league Magic Numbers table
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:31 pm
The next 3 fixtures
Palace v Burnley
Huddersfield v West Ham
Newcastle v Swansea
Watford v Southampton
West Brom v Brighton
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Man Utd v Stoke
Brighton v Chelsea
Arsenal v Palace
Burnley v Man Utd
Everton v West Brom
Stoke v Huddersfield
West Ham v Bournemouth
Man City v Newcastle
Southampton v Tottenham
Swansea v Liverpool
Swansea v Arsenal
West Ham v Palace
Huddersfield v Liverpool
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Newcastle v Burnley
Southampton v Brighton
Man City v West Brom
Stoke v Watford
There could be some double figure losses in these three matches. Here's hoping
UTC
Palace v Burnley
Huddersfield v West Ham
Newcastle v Swansea
Watford v Southampton
West Brom v Brighton
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Man Utd v Stoke
Brighton v Chelsea
Arsenal v Palace
Burnley v Man Utd
Everton v West Brom
Stoke v Huddersfield
West Ham v Bournemouth
Man City v Newcastle
Southampton v Tottenham
Swansea v Liverpool
Swansea v Arsenal
West Ham v Palace
Huddersfield v Liverpool
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Newcastle v Burnley
Southampton v Brighton
Man City v West Brom
Stoke v Watford
There could be some double figure losses in these three matches. Here's hoping
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:35 pm
Manchester United 62
Chelsea 61
Liverpool 59
Tottenham Hotspur 58
Arsenal 54
Leicester City 45
Everton 42
Chelsea 61
Liverpool 59
Tottenham Hotspur 58
Arsenal 54
Leicester City 45
Everton 42
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:04 am
OK, I can see why you didn't include Manchester City.aggi wrote:Manchester United 62
Chelsea 61
Liverpool 59
Tottenham Hotspur 58
Arsenal 54
Leicester City 45
Everton 42
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:54 am
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:36 am
A few things strike me about that spreadsheet;Clarets4me wrote:Week 22 now fully complete.....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
1. Despite our recent lack of points (don't think our form is that bad - just playing some top teams), the extrapolated tables have us at 8th.
2. If those extrapolations are even roughly correct, it looks like you won't need 60+ points to take 7th place (which is very unusual compared to recent seasons).
3. Crystal Palace (and to some extent WHU) improvement in form shows up clearly with Palace even looking like they could be top 10 by the end of the season if they maintain their recent improvement. Who'da thought....?
4. Whichever way you look 3 of the current the bottom 4 are likely to make up the relegation places.
5. Seems there's already a reasonable chance we have enough points to stay up already (no sh!t)
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:23 pm
Looking at the past ten seasons the average points for seventh place was 59 or 61 for the past five seasons.Goddy wrote: 2. If those extrapolations are even roughly correct, it looks like you won't need 60+ points to take 7th place (which is very unusual compared to recent seasons).
There's quite a spread with the lowest being 53 and highest 64.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:43 pm
aggi wrote:Looking at the past ten seasons the average points for seventh place was 59 or 61 for the past five seasons.
There's quite a spread with the lowest being 53 and highest 64.
I only looked at the last 4 or 5 seasons, aggi, before I got bored
I think the range there was around 60-64 points but I'll bow to your superior research. Still, I reckon 20-25 more points might well see us take 7th place and would be an outrageously fantastic achievement.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:25 pm
There's a handy spreadsheet for looking back (not mine)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1992791076" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1992791076" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:48 pm
After 23 matches
West Ham..................37
Palace........................37
Bournemouth............36
Huddersfield.............36
Newcastle.................35
Brighton....................35
Southampton...........33
Stoke.........................32
West Brom................31
Swansea...................29
Although we lost they still drop. One team under 30.
UTC
West Ham..................37
Palace........................37
Bournemouth............36
Huddersfield.............36
Newcastle.................35
Brighton....................35
Southampton...........33
Stoke.........................32
West Brom................31
Swansea...................29
Although we lost they still drop. One team under 30.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:55 am
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:19 am
Slightly belatedly, here's week 24 all complete...no fixtures this weekend....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:16 pm
Nice one, Clarets4me.
So, looks like 35 points will be enough to stay up (whether you look at the extrapolation from the current table or the last 6 or 10 games), although 34 points also likely to be enough to avoid relegation.
Can't now reduce 3 teams to zero on magic numbers until after game 30, although, as I say, a distinct possibility we'll already have enough points to stay up.
So, looks like 35 points will be enough to stay up (whether you look at the extrapolation from the current table or the last 6 or 10 games), although 34 points also likely to be enough to avoid relegation.
Can't now reduce 3 teams to zero on magic numbers until after game 30, although, as I say, a distinct possibility we'll already have enough points to stay up.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:50 pm
bump
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:00 pm
That's week 25 all concluded, the Clarets are 5 points clear of where we were at the same point last season, with 13 games to go...
We picked up only 10 points in the final 13 games of last season , injuries aside, our squad is stronger this time around so let's crack on and finish as high as we can....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
We picked up only 10 points in the final 13 games of last season , injuries aside, our squad is stronger this time around so let's crack on and finish as high as we can....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:40 am
The big plus for us has been the number of drawn games between relegation rivals.
Better that two teams drop 2points each than one team drops 3.
Better that two teams drop 2points each than one team drops 3.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:07 pm
After 26 matches
Watford.........31
West Ham ......28
Brighton ........28
Palace ..........28
Southampton ..27
Newcastle .....26
Swansea ........25
Stoke ...........25
Huddersfield ...25
West Brom.....21
Looks like it won’t be long now. If we can manage to win at Swansea we’ll have two teams under 20
UTC
Watford.........31
West Ham ......28
Brighton ........28
Palace ..........28
Southampton ..27
Newcastle .....26
Swansea ........25
Stoke ...........25
Huddersfield ...25
West Brom.....21
Looks like it won’t be long now. If we can manage to win at Swansea we’ll have two teams under 20
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:12 pm
Hopefully will be a mathematical certainty with 5 or 6 games to go.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:18 pm
7 of the above still to play.
In magic number terms true 6 pointers.
This weekend:
Everton v Crystal Palace
Stoke v BHA
Swansea v CLARETS
West Ham v Watford
Man C v Leicester, purely for the race for seventh
Sunday.
Huddersfield v Bmouth
Newcastle v ManU
Southampton v Liverpool
Monday
Chelsea v WBA.
In magic number terms true 6 pointers.
This weekend:
Everton v Crystal Palace
Stoke v BHA
Swansea v CLARETS
West Ham v Watford
Man C v Leicester, purely for the race for seventh
Sunday.
Huddersfield v Bmouth
Newcastle v ManU
Southampton v Liverpool
Monday
Chelsea v WBA.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:44 pm
Good result on Saturday but we can't afford to drop any more points or we'll have to accept that we're mathematically out of the title challenge.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:42 pm
Bugger, as it stands, we can't do it.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:36 pm
Week 27 fixtures are done and dusted, with Chelsea's 3-0 win over West Brom this evening...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
The lads are in Portugal and hopefully a couple on the injured list back in contention, before we play Southampton at home on 24th February...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#
The lads are in Portugal and hopefully a couple on the injured list back in contention, before we play Southampton at home on 24th February...
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:04 am
Would be a blow if we don't match the 17 points from the second half of the season we've achieved in our previous two seasons in the PL under Dyche, although we have a deeper squad the injuries are an issue.
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:29 am
There will be some tears on here from certain posters if we only finish 13th.