38 points
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38 points
Just had a look at the remaining fixtures and predicted the results and came up with 38 points and that was without another single away win,38 points will be plenty,home form will have to improve though
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Re: 38 points
Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.
This user liked this post: Steve1956
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Re: 38 points
Yea i didnt have us getting a point in the last four gameshappyclaret17 wrote:Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.
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Re: 38 points
Another negative thread!Steve1956 wrote:Yea i didnt have us getting a point in the last four games
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Re: 38 points
Sometimes it’s the best time to play one of the big six in the run in. If they have a massive European Final coming up for example you end up playing their reserves.
Re: 38 points
I've done the same as Steve1956 and come up with 35 points and us still
staying up.
Given there's one team with 10pts and two with 9 points from 16 games
they are going to have to get a point a game from the remaining 22 games
to reach 31/32 points which is no mean feat.
So I think 38 would be more than comfortable and 35 should be enough.
Seven more wins and a couple of draws should do it.
Hope so, really do.
staying up.
Given there's one team with 10pts and two with 9 points from 16 games
they are going to have to get a point a game from the remaining 22 games
to reach 31/32 points which is no mean feat.
So I think 38 would be more than comfortable and 35 should be enough.
Seven more wins and a couple of draws should do it.
Hope so, really do.
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Re: 38 points
West Brom stayed up with 34 points in 2005,and Bradford with 36 points survived in 2000,this looks like being a season when a relatively low number will ensure Premier League status,if you offered any of the bottom 7 38 points they would bite your hands off.
Re: 38 points
Brown trouser job
Re: 38 points
Is it going to be three from the bottom seven or will others drop into the mix ?. If you include Wolves they are only a point behind Watford and two below Brighton and West Ham.
Re: 38 points
Last season we got 7 points from those four fixtures. A repeat of that would be amazing!happyclaret17 wrote:Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.
These 2 users liked this post: houseboy BFCmaj
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Re: 38 points
I really cannot see Wolves being down there. Don't forget they have their 50-100 million January spend, to come.redwasp wrote:Is it going to be three from the bottom seven or will others drop into the mix ?. If you include Wolves they are only a point behind Watford and two below Brighton and West Ham.
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Re: 38 points
38 points looks a long way away,but I have confidence this January transfer window we will get the players required to keep us safe.
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Re: 38 points
To get 38 we will have to win all our home games against the bottom clubs that's too much pressure , we have to pick up some wins on the road , I went through and did it honestly and we got 24 points!
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Re: 38 points
Can't see anyone from West Ham upwards being sucked into a relegation scrap,Brighton didn't impress yesterday and their away form is a problem for them,Watford must be thankful they started like a house on fire,1 point from 15 and three defeats on the spin,it's not impossible either or both could be looking over their shoulders in the new year.redwasp wrote:Is it going to be three from the bottom seven or will others drop into the mix ?. If you include Wolves they are only a point behind Watford and two below Brighton and West Ham.
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Re: 38 points
I think it's mandatory that we do something decent in the Jan window, if we're to stay up.Steve1956 wrote:38 points looks a long way away,but I have confidence this January transfer window we will get the players required to keep us safe.
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Re: 38 points
100% agree Frank if we have a window like the last two,we will be lucky if we get 28 pointsFactualFrank wrote:I think it's mandatory that we do something decent in the Jan window, if we're to stay up.
Re: 38 points
If we are in a relegation battle during the next transfer window I think we will find it tremendously difficult to sign players who would improve our starting 11. If that's the case I believe we will be largely or entirely relying on what we already have to steer us clear of relegation.
Re: 38 points
We’re odds on favourites at 1/2 alongside Huddersfield to be relegated.
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Re: 38 points
12 wins and our 12 points and we are sorted
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Re: 38 points
Think we'll end up on around 34 points. I reckon home wins against WHU, Ful, CP, Wol and Car plus a few draws (home and away) and that will be that.
Who knows how many points needed to avoid the drop although I do think, like a few others, that we won't need 38 points for survival this time round.
Who knows how many points needed to avoid the drop although I do think, like a few others, that we won't need 38 points for survival this time round.
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Re: 38 points
It’s not about how many points the team in 17th achieved, it’s about getting 1 more than the team in 18th.
Over the past 10 seasons the average points gained by the team in 18th place is 34.6 (Blackpool with a high of 39, Burnley with a low of 30), so 35 when rounded up. We would therefore need 36 points, another 24 from the remaining 22 games.
It seems that when the title is won by a side with less than 80 points (2016 & 2011) then the points in that 18th position are higher. When the title is won by a team in the high 80’s, or a number of clubs are into the 80+ point area then the lower the points in 18th. I can’t see Man City or Liverpool getting less than 80 points, and maybe even Chelsea too, so it could be a record low year?
Over the past 10 seasons the average points gained by the team in 18th place is 34.6 (Blackpool with a high of 39, Burnley with a low of 30), so 35 when rounded up. We would therefore need 36 points, another 24 from the remaining 22 games.
It seems that when the title is won by a side with less than 80 points (2016 & 2011) then the points in that 18th position are higher. When the title is won by a team in the high 80’s, or a number of clubs are into the 80+ point area then the lower the points in 18th. I can’t see Man City or Liverpool getting less than 80 points, and maybe even Chelsea too, so it could be a record low year?
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Re: 38 points
Fair enough Claretforever.
Looks like 34 points could well be enough this year. Fingers crossed we get at least that if not substantially more......
Looks like 34 points could well be enough this year. Fingers crossed we get at least that if not substantially more......
Re: 38 points
Looking at the extrapolated points for the season here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; it has 25 points being safe.
Realistically that isn't going to be the case. If you look at the Week 15 tabs for 16/17 and 17/18 the extrapolated number of points for safety at this point was a fair bit lower than it ended up (particularly last year).
Realistically that isn't going to be the case. If you look at the Week 15 tabs for 16/17 and 17/18 the extrapolated number of points for safety at this point was a fair bit lower than it ended up (particularly last year).
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Re: 38 points
Given our record in almost every previous transfer window, I wish I could share your confidence. I fully expect to be chasing a very limited choice of player, make a derisory offer that is rejected out of hand. This will drag on until the end of the transfer window, where we will panic and sign a player from a lower league. That player will then be seen in the first team about as many times as Lord Lucan and Loch Ness Monster are spotted. There will be statements about the cost of players, being unable to compete and ultimately we reach the point where the "happy with the group we have" mantra will be once again released. Like it did a few years ago when we failed to sign cover for Dean Marney, ended up with Jones and Arfield in the centre and ultimately departed the Premier League again.Steve1956 wrote:38 points looks a long way away,but I have confidence this January transfer window we will get the players required to keep us safe.
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Re: 38 points
25 points might be a tad optimistic for staying up, but 34 will definitely do it.
Re: 38 points
One point from home games against Huddersfield and Newcastle could be the difference
We need to strengthen central midfield and a decent goalscorer this Jan
Said before start of season, bottom 6 but staying up, everything crossed at mo
We need to strengthen central midfield and a decent goalscorer this Jan
Said before start of season, bottom 6 but staying up, everything crossed at mo
Re: 38 points
Huddersfield, Watford, Brighton, Newcastle, Bournemouth all away maybe 5 or 7 points? Oh what the heck one game at a time UTC
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Re: 38 points
I look at it as requiring 8 more wins as no team has been relegated from the Premier League having secured 11 wins
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Re: 38 points
You are right but you also have to factor in that the board, if they think relegation is a real possibility, unlike most other boards, would save the money for Championship level income rather than try to improve chances of survival. I've said all season that come January we won't spend a thing of note if relegation looks 'on'.taio wrote:If we are in a relegation battle during the next transfer window I think we will find it tremendously difficult to sign players who would improve our starting 11. If that's the case I believe we will be largely or entirely relying on what we already have to steer us clear of relegation.
I might be a little cynical here but our board are not noted for their risk taking.
This user liked this post: Darnhill Claret
Re: 38 points
That probably applies to most teams in the bottom half, unless they pay silly wages.taio wrote:If we are in a relegation battle during the next transfer window I think we will find it tremendously difficult to sign players who would improve our starting 11. If that's the case I believe we will be largely or entirely relying on what we already have to steer us clear of relegation.
Re: 38 points
I'm not sure it would apply to those say 11th or 12th. And in any case we know others will pay silly wages.Spijed wrote:That probably applies to most teams in the bottom half, unless they pay silly wages.
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Re: 38 points
Keep the faith HC,everything will be hunky doryHerts Clarets wrote:Given our record in almost every previous transfer window, I wish I could share your confidence. I fully expect to be chasing a very limited choice of player, make a derisory offer that is rejected out of hand. This will drag on until the end of the transfer window, where we will panic and sign a player from a lower league. That player will then be seen in the first team about as many times as Lord Lucan and Loch Ness Monster are spotted. There will be statements about the cost of players, being unable to compete and ultimately we reach the point where the "happy with the group we have" mantra will be once again released. Like it did a few years ago when we failed to sign cover for Dean Marney, ended up with Jones and Arfield in the centre and ultimately departed the Premier League again.
Re: 38 points
The difference is this time we do have a few more options with Hendrick, Westwood, Defour & Cork. Plus JBG, Brady & Lennon.Herts Clarets wrote:Given our record in almost every previous transfer window, I wish I could share your confidence. I fully expect to be chasing a very limited choice of player, make a derisory offer that is rejected out of hand. This will drag on until the end of the transfer window, where we will panic and sign a player from a lower league. That player will then be seen in the first team about as many times as Lord Lucan and Loch Ness Monster are spotted. There will be statements about the cost of players, being unable to compete and ultimately we reach the point where the "happy with the group we have" mantra will be once again released. Like it did a few years ago when we failed to sign cover for Dean Marney, ended up with Jones and Arfield in the centre and ultimately departed the Premier League again.
When we had Jones and Arfield we had nothing else to offer.
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Re: 38 points
20 to go...just about double,although I think 34 will keep us up now
Re: 38 points
Has nobody ever noticed how every season people say it will be the lowest ever points total to stay up... and every year it's roughly the same
Re: 38 points
Based on the last ten years average 37 will almost certainly keep you up.
As for ever needing 40 points you might as well say you need 43 points as it's never required.
As for ever needing 40 points you might as well say you need 43 points as it's never required.
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Re: 38 points
Since the Prem reduced to 20 teams 1995/6; the third bottom team points (which is all you have to beat to stay up) have been:
38,40,40,36,33,34,36,42,33,33,34,38,36,34,30,39,36,36,33,35,37,34,33 (Poor old WHU in 2002/3 getting done on 42 )
The average of the first five there is 37.4, last five 34.4
average of first ten is 36.5, last ten is 34.7
Some decent evidence that the number has fallen over that full period. (and that 36 gives you a very good chance of survival latterly).
I think one key thing is how many "big teams" there are at the top which are gobbling up the points. Nowadays we have Chelsea, Arsenal (both as per) + Man City with their middle-eastern money + Liverpool now back strong + Spurs under Poch and Man U are there or thereabouts and looking better post-Mou. If you have 6 teams accumulating big point totals there's just less to go round for the other 14 -especially the bottom few.
38,40,40,36,33,34,36,42,33,33,34,38,36,34,30,39,36,36,33,35,37,34,33 (Poor old WHU in 2002/3 getting done on 42 )
The average of the first five there is 37.4, last five 34.4
average of first ten is 36.5, last ten is 34.7
Some decent evidence that the number has fallen over that full period. (and that 36 gives you a very good chance of survival latterly).
I think one key thing is how many "big teams" there are at the top which are gobbling up the points. Nowadays we have Chelsea, Arsenal (both as per) + Man City with their middle-eastern money + Liverpool now back strong + Spurs under Poch and Man U are there or thereabouts and looking better post-Mou. If you have 6 teams accumulating big point totals there's just less to go round for the other 14 -especially the bottom few.
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Re: 38 points
1 or more of those teams could have had their final position cemented by then, with a cup final to prepare for.happyclaret17 wrote:Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.
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Re: 38 points
Win the 6 pointer's and it makes a huge difference,if we beat Fulham on the 13th,they effectively have to win 3 games to overtake us,tough ask given the've only won 3 all season.
38 points should be enough to beat the drop,can't see 3 of the current bottom six,reaching that mark.
38 points should be enough to beat the drop,can't see 3 of the current bottom six,reaching that mark.
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Re: 38 points
And 1 of those was against us !tiger76 wrote:Win the 6 pointer's and it makes a huge difference,if we beat Fulham on the 13th,they effectively have to win 3 games to overtake us,tough ask given the've only won 3 all season.
38 points should be enough to beat the drop,can't see 3 of the current bottom six,reaching that mark.
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Re: 38 points
33 would have been enough last season with our current goal difference. Can't see it being much (if any) more required this season tbh.
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Re: 38 points
This is looking a long way off,maddening we threw three away yesterday against 10 men.
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Re: 38 points
We will be lucky to get 35 points
Re: 38 points
1 point a game average is pretty much always enough. 38 makes sense but we won’t need that. What we need is one more than what Cardiff get.
Re: 38 points
the Cardiff game is getting bigger and bigger every week and it could definitely end up defining if we go up or down, certainly for Cardiff they will have it down as a must win, while for me at the moment is a must not lose.
Re: 38 points
On current form it's looking like 38 points might be required. However, with the tough run-in for both us and Cardiff my gut feeling is that 36 (and goal difference) would be enough (and given the fixtures, if one team wins the Burnley v Cardiff match it will probably be them).
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Re: 38 points
I said a few weeks ago that I didn't expect the team finishing 17th to need more than 35 points, and I also said that one team would have a very bad run to the end of the season and we just needed to avoid being that team.
I still think that will end up being about right. We probably need one win and 2 or 3 draws from our 7 games to keep our head above water, provided we don't lose to Cardiff. But that game is now huge and defeat in that game would leave us with a lot to do.
I still think that will end up being about right. We probably need one win and 2 or 3 draws from our 7 games to keep our head above water, provided we don't lose to Cardiff. But that game is now huge and defeat in that game would leave us with a lot to do.
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Re: 38 points
Recalculate, after Cardiff beat Chelsea at home. A big possibility if Chelsea don't turn up like yesterday at Evertonclaretspice wrote:I said a few weeks ago that I didn't expect the team finishing 17th to need more than 35 points, and I also said that one team would have a very bad run to the end of the season and we just needed to avoid being that team.
I still think that will end up being about right. We probably need one win and 2 or 3 draws from our 7 games to keep our head above water, provided we don't lose to Cardiff. But that game is now huge and defeat in that game would leave us with a lot to do.
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Re: 38 points
Everything is possible. The guideline is that 35 points is almost invariably enough though, and teams like Cardiff traditionally tend to fizzle out a bit towards the end of the season. But there are always exceptional seasons, and its certainly a shame that we've not been able to put a bit more daylight between us and them to give them less scope for encouragement.Wokingclaret wrote:Recalculate, after Cardiff beat Chelsea at home. A big possibility if Chelsea don't turn up like yesterday at Everton
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Re: 38 points
A couple of unexpected wins for Cardiff and we're most likely down. Similarly, if we somehow excel ourselves in a few games, we'll save our skins.
There's always a couple of freak results get thrown up.
Let's hope they go our way.
There's always a couple of freak results get thrown up.
Let's hope they go our way.