Palace game

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:33 am

Can't wait for it, one thing our lads do is react to a bad performance. After Bardsley slams Zaha into the Longside in the first minute we will beat them.

Longside4evr · Post by **Longside4evr** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:57 am

Hope we play better than we did last night as that performance wasn't far off the abysmal one on show at Selhurst Park we through in
If we play anything like last night it will be a double double on us and both them sides will be wishing they could play us every week

theroyaldyche · Post by **theroyaldyche** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:02 am

Extra days rest too

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:10 am

Longside4evr wrote:Hope we play better than we did last night as that performance wasn't far off the abysmal one on show at Selhurst Park we through in
If we play anything like last night it will be a double double on us and both them sides will be wishing they could play us every week

Last night was far better than the one at Selhurst Park as we created good chances last night.

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:42 pm

All bets are off...

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:10 pm

I think this is a real must win.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:14 pm

bfcjg wrote:I think this is a real must win.

And if we don't?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:15 pm

The way its shaping up, its going to be Cardiff down there.

As long as we beat them I reckon we will be safe, but I'd like to get there asap

boatshed bill · Post by **boatshed bill** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:17 pm

Spijed wrote:And if we don't?

We could be 2 points above the bottom 3. Cause for genuine concern.

not that losing any game is a good thing: we'd have been much better off losing to Spurs and beating Newcastle.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:21 pm

Spijed wrote:And if we don't?

Relegation financial collapse administration points deduction another relegation then a decade or two in the bottom two divisions thinking a cup run will bring salvation.

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:25 pm

Glad we beat Spues otherwise we would be in it. Massive need for the win, on Saturday and then two more, we'll have to beat leicester and Wolves and get a draw at Bournmouth, which won't be easy. Otherwise we need some Spurs-type wins.

Steve-Harpers-perm · Post by **Steve-Harpers-perm** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:25 pm

Reckon 38 points will be enough this season to stay up. Keep playing like we have been (bar last night) we’ll be fine and should be looking to finish towards the top half.

Ashingtonclaret46 · Post by **Ashingtonclaret46** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:25 pm

bfcjg wrote:Relegation financial collapse administration points deduction another relegation then a decade or two in the bottom two divisions thinking a cup run will bring salvation.

I really do enjoy reading posts like this because it makes me realise that being happy all the time is a real bonus in life. Why worry about anything? It really isn't worth it, particularly when you are not in a position to influence the outcome of anything major in the world.
Waken up in the morning and be happy, it's great.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The way its shaping up, its going to be Cardiff down there.

As long as we beat them I reckon we will be safe, but I'd like to get there asap

True, everybody else will be thinking the same thing, l think the teams that stop up will be quite fortunate that hudd & fulham are making a complete arse of things, i wouldn't discount cardiff they seem to be in contention either way, but i think they will go.

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:34 pm

Jeez ...... doom and gloom doesn't take long to grab on here does it.

Saturday beating Tottingham hotspuds and it was "Yippeeee we are magnificent and can beat anyone"...

3 days later and losing to the Barcodes and its "Oh Woe, Woe and thrice Woe"...

Get a grip people and get behind the lads on Saturday Afternoon...

Co.e on you Clarets

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:46 pm

Pstotto wrote:Glad we beat Spues otherwise we would be in it. Massive need for the win, on Saturday and then two more, we'll have to beat leicester and Wolves and get a draw at Bournmouth, which won't be easy. Otherwise we need some Spurs-type wins.

So you're assuming we'll lose at home to Cardiff then?
If we were to beat Cardiff at home, one more win or 3 draws, taking us to 36 points would probably be enough, so long as we have a reasonable goal difference.
Looking at their remaining fixtures it would be a big ask for Cardiff to get to 37 points if they lose to us. (That would be 4 wins from 9 games and they are mainly tough ones).

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:51 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:So you're assuming we'll lose at home to Cardiff then?
If we were to beat Cardiff at home, one more win or 3 draws, taking us to 36 points would probably be enough, so long as we have a reasonable goal difference.
Looking at their remaining fixtures it would be a big ask for Cardiff to get to 37 points if they lose to us. (That would be 4 wins from 9 games and they are mainly tough ones).

That's the kind of result what will throw up, expect the unexpected, & in turn a result what was wrote off on paper will bear fruit

exilecanada · Post by **exilecanada** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:06 pm

nil_desperandum wrote: If we were to beat Cardiff at home, one more win or 3 draws, taking us to 36 points would probably be enough, so long as we have a reasonable goal difference.

In past seasons our superior goals difference has been worth the mythical ‘extra point’. This season the opposite is true, it could end up as our Achilles heel. A win against Palace Saturday is more or less a must, considering the difficult final four games of the season.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:17 am

exilecanada wrote:In past seasons our superior goals difference has been worth the mythical ‘extra point’. This season the opposite is true, it could end up as our Achilles heel. A win against Palace Saturday is more or less a must, considering the difficult final four games of the season.

That's why I deliberately used the term "reasonable".
Cardiff are currently minus 30. So if - as I said - we beat Cardiff, (even by a single goal), we'd be 13 goals ahead of them.
Throw in the fact that they have some really tough fixtures including Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, and Liverpool and they are going to struggle to overcome that unless we throw in some really poor defensive performances.
Of course if we lose to Cardiff then we might need an extra couple of points.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:10 am

nil_desperandum wrote:That's why I deliberately used the term "reasonable".
Cardiff are currently minus 30. So if - as I said - we beat Cardiff, (even by a single goal), we'd be 13 goals ahead of them.
Throw in the fact that they have some really tough fixtures including Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, and Liverpool and they are going to struggle to overcome that unless we throw in some really poor defensive performances.
Of course if we lose to Cardiff then we might need an extra couple of points.

As it currently stands Cardiff need to win the equivalent of two more matches than us (with the GD taken into account) from this point onwards.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:30 am

Spijed wrote:As it currently stands Cardiff need to win the equivalent of two more matches than us (with the GD taken into account) from this point onwards.

That's true, but as I said, if we were to defeat them and pick up a further 3 points somewhere else, (taking us to 36), then they would almost certainly need to get to 37 to finish above us, so that would either be 4 wins from 9 or virtually going unbeaten in all their remaining matches in a combination of wins and draws.
But it's in the balance if we were both to end up on the same points and meanwhile we should take some heavy defeats in our hard fixtures whilst Cardiff improve their current defensive record. (That would no doubt swing GD in their favour).

JohnDearyMe · Post by **JohnDearyMe** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

Huge game this weekend. Palace are a funny side, some excellent attacking play at times but they look generally pretty suspect at the back

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:58 am

JohnDearyMe wrote:Huge game this weekend. Palace are a funny side, some excellent attacking play at times but they look generally pretty suspect at the back

Statistics suggest otherwise. They have the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table (except Newcastle), - significantly better than most until last night, but have only scored 32 goals in 28 matches.
(On checking I find that only 7 teams have conceded fewer than Palace)
They are capable of "excellent attacking play" as you say, and have some v dangerous players, but their game is built on a v solid defence..

JohnDearyMe · Post by **JohnDearyMe** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:15 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Statistics suggest otherwise. They have the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table (except Newcastle), - significantly better than most until last night, but have only scored 32 goals in 28 matches.
(On checking I find that only 7 teams have conceded fewer than Palace)
They are capable of "excellent attacking play" as you say, and have some v dangerous players, but their game is built on a v solid defence..

Interesting, thanks, i did not know that. Impressive that they've managed that despite rotating keepers quite a bit this seaaon.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:47 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Statistics suggest otherwise. They have the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table (except Newcastle), - significantly better than most until last night, but have only scored 32 goals in 28 matches.
(On checking I find that only 7 teams have conceded fewer than Palace)
They are capable of "excellent attacking play" as you say, and have some v dangerous players, but their game is built on a v solid defence..

And as they have players such as Townsend and Zaha it's strange why they are struggling for goals when you'd think they would create so many chances. I know Benteke is struggling but surely they should be sticking a few more chances away.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:17 pm

Spijed wrote:And as they have players such as Townsend and Zaha it's strange why they are struggling for goals when you'd think they would create so many chances. I know Benteke is struggling but surely they should be sticking a few more chances away.

Just wait till Saturday!

Longside4evr · Post by **Longside4evr** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:17 pm

Spijed wrote:Last night was far better than the one at Selhurst Park as we created good chances last night.

How bad was that display down their then ?
And if we play like we did the other night they will also do the double over us my take still stands regardless of what you say

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:44 pm

Ashingtonclaret46 wrote:I really do enjoy reading posts like this because it makes me realise that being happy all the time is a real bonus in life. Why worry about anything? It really isn't worth it, particularly when you are not in a position to influence the outcome of anything major in the world.
Waken up in the morning and be happy, it's great.

it was tongue in cheek, if we do lose (doubt it ) we still wont be caught by Cardiff and have enough of games left.

Spike · Post by **Spike** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:22 pm

Spijed wrote:And as they have players such as Townsend and Zaha it's strange why they are struggling for goals when you'd think they would create so many chances. I know Benteke is struggling but surely they should be sticking a few more chances away.

7 0r 8 of those goals have been from the penalty spot!

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:19 pm

Spijed wrote:As it currently stands Cardiff need to win the equivalent of two more matches than us (with the GD taken into account) from this point onwards.

Cardiff fixtures v ours
Wolves v Cardiff/Burnley v Palace
Cardiff v West ham/Liverpool v Burnley
Brighton v Cardiff/Burnley v Leicester
Cardiff v Chelsea/Burnley v Wolves
Man City v Cardiff/Bournemouth v Burnley
Burnley v Cardiff/Burnley v Cardiff
Cardiff v Liverpool/Chelsea v Burnley
Fulham v Cardiff/Burnley v Man City
Cardiff v Palace/Everton v Burnley
Man Urd v Cardiff/Burnley v Arsenal

Saturday is a really big game for us. Cardiff have at least 5 winnable games

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:20 pm

I forgot about Cardiff, Nil. I feel better now (IF we win).

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:35 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:Cardiff fixtures v ours
Wolves v Cardiff/Burnley v Palace
Cardiff v West ham/Liverpool v Burnley
Brighton v Cardiff/Burnley v Leicester
Cardiff v Chelsea/Burnley v Wolves
Man City v Cardiff/Bournemouth v Burnley
Burnley v Cardiff/Burnley v Cardiff
Cardiff v Liverpool/Chelsea v Burnley
Fulham v Cardiff/Burnley v Man City
Cardiff v Palace/Everton v Burnley
Man Urd v Cardiff/Burnley v Arsenal

Saturday is a really big game for us. Cardiff have at least 5 winnable games

...and how many winnable games do we have? Bear in mind we have 6 home games and Cardiff only have 4 at home. Cardiff's away form is, let's say, poor.

So, would you rather have Cardiff's fixtures and 5 fewer points or what we have? Thought not. I reckon we'll probably be reet whatever happens on Saturday (although I will admit if we lose to Cardiff later on in the season, that could be a defining moment).

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:44 pm

Cardiff have won 7 out of 28 and suddenly have 5 winnable games in the last 10 ?

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:46 pm

Goddy wrote:...and how many winnable games do we have? Bear in mind we have 6 home games and Cardiff only have 4 at home. Cardiff's away form is, let's say, poor.

So, would you rather have Cardiff's fixtures and 5 fewer points or what we have? Thought not. I reckon we'll probably be reet whatever happens on Saturday (although I will admit if we lose to Cardiff later on in the season, that could be a defining moment).

nobody said that, I was pointing out that they have 5 winnable games, I didn't say they would win them nor did I say we wouldn't win ours.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:48 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:Cardiff have won 7 out of 28 and suddenly have 5 winnable games in the last 10 ?

so you don't think they have 5 winnable games ? Did you think we would beat Spurs ? History is exactly that. They've proved they can pick up points but I'm not saying they will, I was merely listing the fixtures.

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:52 pm

I am confident enough to bet they don't win 5 of them.

They only games looking at that list I think they should win are West Ham & Fulham.

Did I think we would beat Spurs ? I fancied a draw. That is 1 result, slightly different to going from winning 1 game every 4 to suddenly going on a winning run of games.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:22 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Saturday is a really big game for us. Cardiff have at least 5 winnable games

All games are winnable but realistically I 'm struggling to find 5 unless you include beating us, and my hypothesis was based on us winning and effectively taking 6 points. I agree that if we lose that game, it will be a lot tighter.
I said that if we beat Cardiff and got 3 more points they would have to get at least 4 wins.
So basically they would have to win all 4 of your "winnable" games.
Hopefully we might be + 36pts by the time we play Cardiff, but I'm absolutely taking nothing for granted.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:56 pm

As per post 32: Cardiff have only 4 H games left against 6 A. So far this season they've averaged c 1.2 points per home game & c 0.6 points per away game.
At that average, they'd get 8/9 points. The games left are pretty much averagely difficult (av league position 9th/10th)

Clarets have averaged c 1.3 points H, 0.9 A; at that average with 6 H, 4 A, we would get c 11 points. The average league position of our opponents is c 2 positions higher than Cardiff's but we are starting out with 5 points advantage + superior goal difference.

That's why bookies odds on "to be relegated" are Cardiff 2/7, Clarets 10/1 (Brighton and Saints also shorter odds than us at 7/1 and 8/1).

One game at a time though eh? If Cardiff gain ground on us this weekend, the odds will close some.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:04 pm

If we average only 1 point per home game ( inc only a draw v Cardiff) AND lose all 4 away games, we end with 36 points .

This would mean Cardiff would need 11 points from 10 games (inc 1 v Burnley). Plus they would need to get a superior GD.

None of the above is likely and I wont be losing any sleep.

Spike · Post by **Spike** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:29 pm

Cardiff will be relegated

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:23 pm

Spike wrote:Cardiff will be relegated

Don't beat about the bush Spike, come on man stop prevaricating and tell it straight ffs....

dpinsussex · Post by **dpinsussex** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:37 pm

Or beat palace, beat Cardiff. Job done

Foulthrow · Post by **Foulthrow** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:38 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:Cardiff fixtures v ours
Wolves v Cardiff/Burnley v Palace
Cardiff v West ham/Liverpool v Burnley
Brighton v Cardiff/Burnley v Leicester
Cardiff v Chelsea/Burnley v Wolves
Man City v Cardiff/Bournemouth v Burnley
Burnley v Cardiff/Burnley v Cardiff
Cardiff v Liverpool/Chelsea v Burnley
Fulham v Cardiff/Burnley v Man City
Cardiff v Palace/Everton v Burnley
Man Urd v Cardiff/Burnley v Arsenal

Saturday is a really big game for us. Cardiff have at least 5 winnable games

Looking at that list I’d say the spread of the fixtures between us and Cardiff is remarkably similar. And, as someone else pointed out, Cardiff need to make up two wins on us. Either Cardiff have to go on a fantastic run or we have to pretty much lose every game for them to overtake. Can’t understand this theory that we should be writing off the last four games.

Foulthrow · Post by **Foulthrow** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:40 pm

Added to that, we have six home games left and Cardiff have just four.

Longsider · Post by **Longsider** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:00 pm

Every non Burnley fan I speak to things we will stay up.