Magic Numbers 2019-20 ...

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:44 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:36 pm
Brighton may have done enough to be safe with 33 points. Scrap between the bottom 5, with Norwich the first to confirm their relegation.

So long as Brentford or Fulham take 3rd spot in the promotion positions, I'll have the same number of "near by" games to get to next season, if and when they start to let fans back into the grounds.

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Brighton probably need 1 more win, and maybe a draw somewhere to be safe, the bottom 5 are struggling to move out of the 20 odd point territory, and none of them can buy a win, their form pre-lockdown/post-lockdown is dire, and it's getting to the stage where they'll need to start stringing back-to-back wins together, can't see that happening in their present malaise.

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:02 pm

After today's early fixtures

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huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:04 pm

Need Watford down to 8, at this time tomorrow.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:21 pm

Matchday 30

W/E 20-21 June

Man City 5-0 Burnley

Liverpool...........-2....69
Man City..................49
Leicester ..........-2....40
Chelsea ..................37
Man Utd ...........-2....32
Wolves ...................32
Sheffield Utd .....-3....30
Tottenham ........-2....28
Palace ....................28
Arsenal .............-3...26
Burnley
Everton ............-2.....24
Newcastle ................24
Southampton .............23
Brighton ..................18
Watford ...........-2......14
West Ham ........-3......13
Bournemouth ....-3......13
Villa ...............-3......12
Norwich ..........-3......7

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huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 pm

After Watford.

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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:37 pm

Matchday 31

Mid Week 23-24-25 June

Burnley 1-0 Watford

Liverpool............-3........66
Man City.............-6........43
Leicester............-5........35
Chelsea .............-3........34
Man Utd ............-3........29
Wolves ..............-3.......29
Tottenham .........-3........25
Sheffield Utd ......-6.......24
Arsenal .............-3.......23
Palace ..............-6.......22
Burnley
Everton.............-3.......21
Newcastle .........-5.......19
Southampton .....-6.......17
Brighton ...........-5.......13
Watford ............-6........8
West Ham .........-6........7
Bournemouth .....-6........7
Villa ................-5........7
Norwich ...........-6........1

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DCWat · Post by **DCWat** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:44 pm

If there were any doubts before tonight (there shouldn’t have been) they’ve now been put to bed - surely!!

Finish the season strongly, get Dyche and Garlick signed up to marriage counselling, spend a bit in the window - roll on next season

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:18 pm

DCWat wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:44 pm
If there were any doubts before tonight (there shouldn’t have been) they’ve now been put to bed - surely!!

Finish the season strongly, get Dyche and Garlick signed up to marriage counselling, spend a bit in the window - roll on next season

Sean Dyche and Mike Garlick saw their counsellors last night, a team of footballers in Claret and Blue.

Little bit surprised there's not more "we've got 40 points" celebrations on this mb since yesterday evening. Maybe it's because we've still got 7 games left - and only 3 points away from 7th.

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Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:51 pm

We've done brilliant in the prem these last 4 years.
If there was a downside, it's our inability to see the season out. Almost get safe and hit the beach.
I don't think we can reach Europe, but it would be nice to see it out and get as high as we can.
Points mean cash.

ClaretAL · Post by **ClaretAL** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:05 pm

Am I right in thinking that 8th could get us to Europe, with the Man City Ban ?

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:13 pm

ClaretAL wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:05 pm
Am I right in thinking that 8th could get us to Europe, with the Man City Ban ?

Yes. If one of the top 6 wins the FA Cup, I believe.

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:49 pm

Villa drop another 3 points - their magic number now down to 4

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:31 pm

bfcmik wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:49 pm
Villa drop another 3 points - their magic number now down to 4

All bottom 4 have got challenging games to play. West Ham have also got games against Norwich and Villa, so, if WHU lose those two games they are effectively only on +1 at present, and if WHU win both those games then Norwich are effectively on -2 and Villa on +1. I guess Eddie and Bournemouth will be looking at those WHU games are working what it means for their chances of "escape."

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:42 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:31 pm
All bottom 4 have got challenging games to play. West Ham have also got games against Norwich and Villa, so, if WHU lose those two games they are effectively only on +1 at present, and if WHU win both those games then Norwich are effectively on -2 and Villa on +1. I guess Eddie and Bournemouth will be looking at those WHU games are working what it means for their chances of "escape."

Villa's next game is away to the new Champions too

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:57 pm

huw.Y.WattfromWare wrote: ↑
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:04 pm
Need Watford down to 8, at this time tomorrow.

Now down to 5 !

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:57 am

Bump ....

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:09 am

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

What a difference a week makes.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:25 am

So it's now impossible for us to finish bottom.

claretblue · Post by **claretblue** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 am

aggi wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:25 am
So it's now impossible for us to finish bottom.

more importantly we can finish runner-up!

1st time since '62!

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martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 am

By my reckoning if West Ham lose on Wednesday it’ll be mathematically impossible for three teams to finish above us.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:32 am

That is based upon WHU playing Villa and Watford so at least two of those drop points and would become negative

timshorts · Post by **timshorts** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:54 pm

martin_p wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 am
By my reckoning if West Ham lose on Wednesday it’ll be mathematically impossible for three teams to finish above us.

It doesn't work. If west ham lose on Wednesday, they could also lose to both Watford and villa leaving both of those able to finish above us.

What is certain, though, is that if we win one point, then that will see us mathematically safe.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:17 pm

We could be safe before we play again with Bournemouth to play twice at home to Newcastle and away to Man Utd and Watford once away at Chelsea, they could both be negative by Saturday night. Looking at it again draws would not be enough for them they need to win. Happy days safe with 6 matches to play??!!

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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:21 pm

From the season we qualified for Europe
Re: Magic Numbers 2017/2018
Post Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:54 pm

After the Saturday matches here is how we stand.

Leicester.........(31)....-3.......19
Everton...........(32)....-6.......13.. Currently getting beat 2-0 by man city
Bournemouth ...(32)....-5.......10
Watford..........(32).....-5.......10
Newcastle........(31)....-3.......11
Brighton...........(31)....-6......10
West Ham.........(31)....-3.......9
Swansea...........(32)....-6.......7
Huddersfield .....(32)....-6.......4
Palace.............(32)....-6........3
Southampton.....(31)....-6........4
Stoke...............(31)....-3.......3
West brom ........(32)....-6......-7
Nearly safe.
Looking like a top 8/9 finish at worst
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:58 pm

Matchday 32

27/06-02/07

Palace 0-1 Burnley

Liverpool...........-6.....60
Man City ...........-3.....40
Leicester ..........-3.....32
Chelsea ............-6.....28
Man Utd ...........-3.....26
Wolves .............-3.....26
Sheffield Utd ......-3....21
Arsenal .............-3....20
Tottenham .........-6....19
Burnley
Everton ............-3....18
Palace .............-6.....16
Newcastle..........-3....16
Southampton ......-3....14
Brighton ............-6.....7
West Ham...........-3.....4
Watford ............-6......2
Villa .................-6.....1
Bournemouth ......-6.....1
Norwich ............-6.....-5

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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:51 pm

In the last 10 matches we’ve had 6 wins 3 draws and 1 defeat
We’ve affected teams by

Liverpool..........29
Man City...........32
Leicester..........41
Chelsea............36
Man Utd ..........33
Wolves ............30
Sheffield Utd.....37
Arsenal ...........33
Tottenham .......36
Burnley
Everton ...........35
Palace ............38
Newcastle ........35
Southampton ....39
Brighton ..........42
West Ham ........46
Watford ..........45
Villa ...............45
Bournemouth ....44
Norwich ..........44

Some big numbers towards the bottom and unsurprisingly only Liverpool average under 3 per match.

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FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:57 pm

That’s a great stat

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:37 pm

If Watford fail to win away at Chelsea we will be safe!!!
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Zlatan · Post by **Zlatan** » Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:30 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote: ↑
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:37 pm
If Watford fail to win away at Chelsea we will be safe!!!
UTC

Already are safe...

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=48237

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:49 pm

It's looking 70% certain as if it's Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Norwich for the drop ....

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:59 pm

Matchday 33

4/5/6 July

Burnley 1-1 Sheffield Utd

Liverpool..........-1....59
Man City...........-4....36
Leicester..........-1....28
Chelsea............-1....27
Man Utd ..........-1....25
Wolves.............-4....22
Arsenal............-1....19
Tottenham........-1....18
Sheffield Utd.....-3....18
Burnley
Everton ............-4...14
Newcastle.........-3....13
Southampton.....-1....13
Palace.............-4.....12
Brighton...........-1.....6
West Ham.........-3.....1
Watford............-4....-2
Villa................-4....-3
Bournemouth.....-4....-3
Norwich...........-4....-9

4 teams minus!!

We’re safe !!
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:11 pm

Matchday 34

7/8/9 July

West Ham 0-1 Burnley

Liverpool .........-3....56
Man City ..........-3....33
Chelsea ...........-3....24
Leicester .........-5....23
Man Utd ...........-3...22
Wolves ............-6....16
Sheffield Utd ....-3....15
Arsenal ...........-5....14
Tottenham........-5....13
Burnley
Everton ...........-5......9
Southampton ....-5......8
Newcastle ........-6......7
Palace .............-6.....6
Brighton ...........-6.....0
West Ham .........-6....-5
Watford ............-3...-5
Bournemouth .....-5....-8
Villa ................-6....-9
Norwich ...........-6.....-15

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bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:56 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:11 pm
Matchday 34

7/8/9 July

West Ham 0-1 Burnley

Liverpool .........-3....56
Man City ..........-3....33
Chelsea ...........-3....24
Leicester .........-5....23
Man Utd ...........-3...22
Wolves ............-6....16
Sheffield Utd ....-3....15
Arsenal ...........-5....14
Tottenham........-5....13
Burnley
Everton ...........-5......9
Southampton ....-5......8
Newcastle ........-6......7
Palace .............-6.....6
Brighton ...........-6.....0
West Ham .........-6....-5
Watford ............-3...-5
Bournemouth .....-5....-8
Villa ................-6....-9
Norwich ...........-6.....-15

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Surely Brighton's magic number is -1 now. They can only reach 48 and we have 49! Is it because the spreadsheet adds 1 to the points total in order to take goal difference out of the equation?

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:33 am

The lowest we can finish is 14th.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:03 am

claretandy wrote: ↑
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:33 am
The lowest we can finish is 14th.

which is amazing !

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:07 pm

Bump ...

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:51 pm

The clubs we can effect. Good to see the teams below us have worse GDs.

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Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:16 pm

Palace have got Man United and Spurs at home, and a trip to Wolves left, they need to win all three, and Burnley to get nothing from our remaining fixtures to overtake us, so I'm going out on a limb and saying we can't finish worse than 13th ....

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:52 pm

I hope Palace turn it around and pick up two wins otherwise I see Woy being potted and maybe SD asked to take over

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:52 pm

Clarets4me wrote: ↑
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:16 pm
Palace have got Man United and Spurs at home, and a trip to Wolves left, they need to win all three, and Burnley to get nothing from our remaining fixtures to overtake us, so I'm going out on a limb and saying we can't finish worse than 13th ....

Hmm, why are you looking down? I'm looking at what the Clarets need to do qualify for Europa.

Need to beat Wolves, Norwich and Brighton.

We play Wolves on Wed 15th. Spurs have Newcastle same day and Arsenal have L'pool. Everything will be a lot clearer after that. (Sheff Utd play Leicester the next day).

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Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:58 pm

After the last experience of Europe and given our likely squad size, I wouldn't be mortified if we finished one below a European place, thus ensuring maximum prize money for our League finish, without having to play in Europe .... I fully realise this is a minority view ...

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:20 am

Matchday 35

11/12/13 July

Liverpool 1-1 Burnley

Liverpool..........-3......53
Man City ..........-1......32
Chelsea ...........-4......20
Leicester .........-4......19
Man Utd ..........-3......18
Wolves ............-1......15
Sheffield Utd.....-1......14
Tottenham .......-1......12
Arsenal ...........-4......10
Burnley
Everton ..........-4.......5
Southampton ....-3......5
Newcastle .......-4.......3
Palace ............-4......2
Brighton .........-4.......-4
West Ham .......-1.......-6
Watford ..........-1......-6
Bournemouth ....-1......-9
Villa ...............-1......-10
Norwich ..........-4.......-19

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huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:17 pm

One more win leaves Everton & Saints having to win every game.
10th looking a minimum position.

Silkyskills1 · Post by **Silkyskills1** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:17 pm

Clarets4me wrote: ↑
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:58 pm
After the last experience of Europe and given our likely squad size, I wouldn't be mortified if we finished one below a European place, thus ensuring maximum prize money for our League finish, without having to play in Europe .... I fully realise this is a minority view ...

Well, I, for one, agree with you.

CaptainKirk · Post by **CaptainKirk** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:52 pm

Agreed. As high as possible without actually qualifying would do me.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:27 pm

A win today and a Spurs loss would be nice

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:59 pm

The lowest finish possible is now 10th ..... with 48 hours more rest than our last game opponents, Brighton

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:17 pm

Teams who we will finish above include Aston Villa, West Ham, Palace, Newcastle, Saints, Everton and possibly Arsenal !!!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:14 pm

Matchday 36

14/15/16/17 July

Burnley 1-1 Wolves

Liverpool ...........-4........49
Man City ............-1........31
Chelsea .............-1........19
Leicester ...........-1........18
Man Utd ............-1........17
Wolves...............-3........12
Tottenham .........-1........11
Sheffield Utd.......-4........10
Arsenal .............-1........9
Burnley
Everton ............-3........2
Southampton .....-3........2
Newcastle .........-4........-1
Palace .............-4........-2
West Ham .........-1........-7
Brighton ............-3.......-7
Watford ............-4........-10
Bournemouth .....-4........-13
Villa .................-3.......-13
Norwich ............-4.......-23

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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:20 pm

Matchday 37

18/19/20/21/22

Norwich 0-2 Burnley

Liverpool .........-3......46
Man City ..........-3......28
Man Utd ...........-4.....13
Chelsea ............-6.....13
Leicester ..........-6......12
Wolves .............-3......9
Tottenham ........-3......8
Sheffield Utd .....-6......4
Burnley
Arsenal ............-6......3
Everton ............-3......-1
Southampton .....-3......-1
Newcastle .........-4......-5
Palace .............-6......-8
West Ham .........-4......-11
Brighton ...........-4......-11
Villa ................-3......-16
Watford ............-6......-16
Bournemouth .....-6......-19
Norwich ............-6......-29

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