Stocks and shares during covid

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Goddy
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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Goddy » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:22 pm

@fatboy47 and @blackrod

I have to say one of the things this board has proven is that not many of us know that much about football, quite frankly. Whilst I don't profess to be an expert on investments myself, there are people on here who appear to be quite knowledgeable about stocks/shares e.g. I think there's a few who are IFAs and pensions advisers etc (if you choose to believe their backgrounds, of course).

@Top Claret - I was in Thor a while ago and managed to, let's say, cut my losses there. Didn't go too well for me, I'm afraid. :( I haven't followed them since but it sounds like I might have to go back and investigate.

@cricketfieldclarets - Ariana doing OK just now. As for the others I mentioned, BEM has gone up a bit and looks like (finally) some news might come out. That being said, I sold half of my relatively paltry holding just to bank a profit in case it's bad news that comes out!! LID went up lots and back down to where it came from in spite of outstanding results - sometimes I just can't work it out! INSE has gone down a bit but I'm in for the long haul there (and, in fact, added a few).

Whatever any of you do, if you do invest in anything, I wish you good luck but, as many have said on here, go in with the view that you can afford to lose the lot should the worst happen (and apologies if that all this sounds a bit patronising)

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by atlantalad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:05 am

Rolls Royce shares taking a drubbing today~ down 60% after the company try and raise £6bn. At the same time unions calling for 3 week strike at Barnoldswick plant for fear of plant closure and moving Trent blade technology to Singapore. Seems to me the company is fighting for survival and doing its best to safeguard the majority of its workforce through cost savings. Albeit, bad situation for the Barnoldswick employees but surely the unions should look at the bigger picture.

Striking now serves no useful purpose except for unions to be seen to be doing something at the expense of work force losing 3 weeks pay.

Global economy is another issue - unions continually pushing up pay ( i.e. majority of RR employees admitting pay was very good) - there must come a time when workforce/ unions out price themselves.

NewClaret
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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by NewClaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:15 am

atlantalad wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:05 am
Rolls Royce shares taking a drubbing today~ down 60% after the company try and raise £6bn. At the same time unions calling for 3 week strike at Barnoldswick plant for fear of plant closure and moving Trent blade technology to Singapore. Seems to me the company is fighting for survival and doing its best to safeguard the majority of its workforce through cost savings. Albeit, bad situation for the Barnoldswick employees but surely the unions should look at the bigger picture.

Striking now serves no useful purpose except for unions to be seen to be doing something at the expense of work force losing 3 weeks pay.

Global economy is another issue - unions continually pushing up pay ( i.e. majority of RR employees admitting pay was very good) - there must come a time when workforce/ unions out price themselves.
Wow, just seen that. Usually some money to be made off a bounce from these major falls but I still wouldn’t touch them. Or any shares at the moment.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:46 am

Saw the news yesterday thinking may be an opportunity. I bought rolls before they plummeted to recent lows. Haven’t even looked where they are today. 🤢

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by NewClaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:55 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:46 am
Saw the news yesterday thinking may be an opportunity. I bought rolls before they plummeted to recent lows. Haven’t even looked where they are today. 🤢
Sorry to hear that mate. I was in the banks the day that they dropped 60% so I know the feeling.

Dropped to 70p today. 80p at 10:40 and peaked at £1 at 11:20. Those in the know will’ve made 20% in 40 minutes. Astonishing really!

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:25 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:55 am
Sorry to hear that mate. I was in the banks the day that they dropped 60% so I know the feeling.

Dropped to 70p today. 80p at 10:40 and peaked at £1 at 11:20. Those in the know will’ve made 20% in 40 minutes. Astonishing really!
Wouldn’t have minded even £50 worth at the bottom increase 😂
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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Swizzlestick » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:28 pm

Swizzlestick wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:23 am
I couldn’t think of a worse possible time to invest.
I can only reiterate this. Absolutely chaotic out there.
This user liked this post: cricketfieldclarets

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by cbx750 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:01 pm

I think Rolls shares have been revalued today due to a rights issue, I just checked my share save account and I now have 3 times as many shares as yesterday but the value is about the same.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:02 pm

atlantalad wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:05 am
Rolls Royce shares taking a drubbing today~ down 60% after the company try and raise £6bn. At the same time unions calling for 3 week strike at Barnoldswick plant for fear of plant closure and moving Trent blade technology to Singapore. Seems to me the company is fighting for survival and doing its best to safeguard the majority of its workforce through cost savings. Albeit, bad situation for the Barnoldswick employees but surely the unions should look at the bigger picture.

Striking now serves no useful purpose except for unions to be seen to be doing something at the expense of work force losing 3 weeks pay.

Global economy is another issue - unions continually pushing up pay ( i.e. majority of RR employees admitting pay was very good) - there must come a time when workforce/ unions out price themselves.
I was asked by many people at my ex works when to buy RR shares, I kept telling them not until they get well below £1.

Then the rights issue was announced, that put the post rights issue price of RR shares at 54p.

I would not touch them unless they drop below that value now and they probably will.

The Barlick situation is very complex, I am not going to claim to know all what’s going on either.
However when you back a workforce into a corner and they don’t have a way out. Don’t be surprised when they react like this.

It will be a mistake to shut Barlick as Singapore do not have the skills to introduce a new design fan blade into production and never will have. Unfortunately many seniors don’t understand this and think it’s easy to do and that any Engineer can do it. They also think they don’t need to retain those skills because Ultrafan is their planned future, shame it’s not.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:03 pm

cbx750 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:01 pm
I think Rolls shares have been revalued today due to a rights issue, I just checked my share save account and I now have 3 times as many shares as yesterday but the value is about the same.
You are probably correct, I fortunately don’t own any anymore.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by cbx750 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:06 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:03 pm
You are probably correct, I fortunately don’t own any anymore.
I only had a few hundred, now 1500ish just glad I didn't hang on to them all like some people have.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Paul Waine » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:57 pm

Report in The Times, Tuesday re RR:

Strike over ‘secret agenda’ to shut Barnoldswick, home of Rolls-Royce jet engine

The factory in Lancashire was the crucible that made Rolls-Royce pre-eminent as a producer of jet engines. In 1943, Frank Whittle’s engines for the RAF’s first jet fighters were built at the plant, which gave the initials RB — Rolls Barnoldswick — to generations of the company’s jet engines.

Now, however, amid a financial crisis at Rolls-Royce, a three-week strike has been called at the historic Barnoldswick site, with trade unions claiming that the company has a secret agenda to close the facility on the Yorkshire border north of Burnley.

Rolls-Royce is set to secure a £5 billion rescue with the issuing of £2 billion of bonds, £2 billion of new shares to equity investors and raising £1 billion of bank loans as it counts the cost of the coronavirus pandemic on the aviation and aerospace sectors.

As part of its efforts to shore up its finances, the group is also trying to save hundreds of millions of pounds a year by laying off 9,000 people — about one in six of its workforce around the world.

The reason is obvious. Demand from Airbus and Boeing, its two main customers, has halved because airlines have deferred or cancelled deliveries of the new aircraft that the two manufacturers would normally be supplying. Fewer new aircraft means fewer new engines, forcing Rolls to review its options.

Barnoldswick’s operations to build fan blades for Rolls’ Trent XWB engines for the Airbus A350 are to be transferred from Lancashire to the company’s much newer facilities in Singapore. Since the start of the year, Barnoldswick’s workforce has fallen from 740 to 550 and, with 350 workers employed on the Trent fan blades, unions believe that there will not be enough work left to sustain the plant.

“To offshore work and destroy the viability of this historic factory would be nothing short of industrial vandalism,” Ross Quinn, a local officer at Unite, the industrial union, said.

Last month 94 per cent of Unite members at the factory voted for industrial action if Rolls could not guarantee that there would be no compulsory redundancies. Unite said that as the company had failed to give commitments on redundancies and the future of the plant, it had instructed members to take targeted strike action from Friday next week until the end of November.

“Barnoldswick is the cradle of the jet engine and the workforce and the local community will not allow Rolls-Royce to destroy the viability of the site without a huge fight,” Mr Quinn said.

A spokesman for Rolls said that the company had no intention of shutting Barnoldswick, adding that it would continue to produce engines for the RAF Typhoon combat jets and remained in the vanguard of work to produce Rolls’ next-generation “ultra-fan” commercial aircraft engines.

“Although we are proposing that some work will no longer take place at the site, we have no plans to close it,” the spokesman said. “Our people in Barnoldswick will play an important role in developing fan blades for our future jet engines, keeping the UK at the cutting edge of aerospace technology. We ask them to work with us, not against us.”

***************************

Thought of some of the posters on here when I read this report yesterday.

I worked with a guy in the early 80s who told me he wrote the last £1 million cheque for RR before they went bankrupt in 1971 (or thereabouts) when they ran out of money developing the RB211. Ted Heath/Antony Barber rescued the company by nationalising on that occasion (if my memory is reasonably accurate). Of course, they guy I met was no longer working for RR - he was part of titanium manufacturing project - which shut down after maybe 5 years. :(

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:13 pm

Paul Waine,
Just keep in mind, you can tell when senior people or people who front things like this for RR. It’s pretty easy to know, their mouths move.
So I will try to spell out how it’s worked so far.
So seniors decided that the new plant in Singapore would have a zero scrap rate, they don’t listen. So Singapore didn’t have a scrap budget, so all their inevitable scrap went on Barnoldswick budget meaning they bust the budget by several million for several years. Making Singapore look good. Fan blade scrap rates are high, when I was team leader we hit out budget around 4 million for the year.
Engineers working on projects at Barlick to introduce new kit for Singapore went on Barlick budget. Singapore had engineers book on those projects whilst they worked on production in Singapore. Once again moving costs to Barlick.

So costs from Singapore were moved onto Barlick to make Singapore look good.

The new problem for Barlick is this.
Two plants, Ghyll and Bankfield. I will simplify this, Ghyll made small engine blades V2500 , 535 E4/f5. The A320 NEO replaced the V2500. This took Ghyll from 250 blades a week to 25 for spares.
Engineers, good ones did a plan to close Ghyll and move it. Cost 60 million to make 25 parts a week.
Making 130 Trents a week at Bankfield and 250 honeys at Ghyll cost rate was around £70 per hour.

Reduction in Ghyll production pushed cost rates to over £150 per hour.

Now moving Trent production to Singapore will costs rates over £250 per hour.

RR will just say it’s become to uneconomic to make parts at Barlick. But you understand how they work and how it’s going to go because you have seen this is how they roll. You know how they working this.

Plants they want to stay open they will put addition work into them.
The more standard hours production you have the less overhead costs push up your cost rate. Buildings and land are a massive cost. People are too but engineers are now really good at making parts with very little people.


Hope that makes sense.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by KateR » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:40 pm

Just out of interest, are any of you guys who might have investment in US companies, figuring the Presidential election in to your portfolios and what might happen, I don't just mean investments in the DOW etc. but in American owned companies, big tech etc.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:49 pm

KateR wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:40 pm
Just out of interest, are any of you guys who might have investment in US companies, figuring the Presidential election in to your portfolios and what might happen, I don't just mean investments in the DOW etc. but in American owned companies, big tech etc.
I invested in two American funds about 15 months ago. Baille Gifford American and an S & P 500 tracker with a few hundred quid prior to putting in several thousands. Which I am about to do. BGA has gone up about 75% and the S & P 500 about 22%.
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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:52 pm

KateR wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:40 pm
Just out of interest, are any of you guys who might have investment in US companies, figuring the Presidential election in to your portfolios and what might happen, I don't just mean investments in the DOW etc. but in American owned companies, big tech etc.
The S&p500 has taken a dip over the last few days, so is ripe for some investment. It might come down another hundred points or so. If it does I will be in big time.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by KateR » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:59 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:49 pm
I invested in two American funds about 15 months ago. Baille Gifford American and an S & P 500 tracker with a few hundred quid prior to putting in several thousands. Which I am about to do. BGA has gone up about 75% and the S & P 500 about 22%.

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LBC, my question was more on are you considering the presidential election in any way as to how the outcome will effect your US investment, also as I said it does not have to be on S&P for example.

I have a large spread of shares and not all US so what happens globally/politically does effect returns, so it maybe a UK or EU of Far East branch of a US parent company you have invested in, they will see effects from the outcome of the election, that's more my question.

By the way I have had my funds much longer with a global basket but one of the best performing has been a linked fund to S&P 500, which of course has yielded a much higher return than you are showing, simply due to the length of time I suspect. As always timing is everything :)

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:09 pm

KateR wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:59 pm
LBC, my question was more on are you considering the presidential election in any way as to how the outcome will effect your US investment, also as I said it does not have to be on S&P for example.

I have a large spread of shares and not all US so what happens globally/politically does effect returns, so it maybe a UK or EU of Far East branch of a US parent company you have invested in, they will see effects from the outcome of the election, that's more my question.

By the way I have had my funds much longer with a global basket but one of the best performing has been a linked fund to S&P 500, which of course has yielded a much higher return than you are showing, simply due to the length of time I suspect. As always timing is everything :)
The S & P 500 has done an average of just over 10% per year for over one hundred years.

Trump was trying to help American manufacturers hence a tech stocks fund.

But Biden is saying he will invest more than Trump in American companies but not be as hard on imports.

I only see American funds going up.

I don’t do companies any more but if I did it would be Tesla.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by KateR » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:11 pm

you need to consider the tax implications from next week, obviously the corporate tax situation
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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:14 pm

Based on this tax increases, I cannot understand why Biden is going win, but he will.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Claretitus » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:30 pm

Another thing that RR as a company do not like is bad/negative publicity, that makes it look bad in the eyes of the public. They backed the Unions into a corner, and gave them no choice but to ballot for strike action. The Unions aren’t daft enough to believe the strike will make RR change their mind, but obviously had to do something. It’s a sorry state of affairs, and I’m glad I retired in 2014, having made good profits on Sharesave schemes. Just feel so sorry for the staff still there now, especially the very young ones.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Paul Waine » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:15 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:13 pm
Paul Waine,
Just keep in mind, you can tell when senior people or people who front things like this for RR. It’s pretty easy to know, their mouths move.
So I will try to spell out how it’s worked so far.
So seniors decided that the new plant in Singapore would have a zero scrap rate, they don’t listen. So Singapore didn’t have a scrap budget, so all their inevitable scrap went on Barnoldswick budget meaning they bust the budget by several million for several years. Making Singapore look good. Fan blade scrap rates are high, when I was team leader we hit out budget around 4 million for the year.
Engineers working on projects at Barlick to introduce new kit for Singapore went on Barlick budget. Singapore had engineers book on those projects whilst they worked on production in Singapore. Once again moving costs to Barlick.

So costs from Singapore were moved onto Barlick to make Singapore look good.

The new problem for Barlick is this.
Two plants, Ghyll and Bankfield. I will simplify this, Ghyll made small engine blades V2500 , 535 E4/f5. The A320 NEO replaced the V2500. This took Ghyll from 250 blades a week to 25 for spares.
Engineers, good ones did a plan to close Ghyll and move it. Cost 60 million to make 25 parts a week.
Making 130 Trents a week at Bankfield and 250 honeys at Ghyll cost rate was around £70 per hour.

Reduction in Ghyll production pushed cost rates to over £150 per hour.

Now moving Trent production to Singapore will costs rates over £250 per hour.

RR will just say it’s become to uneconomic to make parts at Barlick. But you understand how they work and how it’s going to go because you have seen this is how they roll. You know how they working this.

Plants they want to stay open they will put addition work into them.
The more standard hours production you have the less overhead costs push up your cost rate. Buildings and land are a massive cost. People are too but engineers are now really good at making parts with very little people.


Hope that makes sense.
Hi Lowbank, yes, I get what you are saying about cost allocations - a long, long time ago, more than 40 years ago (just worked that out - and I'm surprised how far back) I used to do some standard costing in engineering plants. It was always important to understand the differences between "standard cost" and actual costs and have a good understanding of the variances - it would bite you if you mixed up the two and made decisions based on inaccurate data. It still applies today.

I can understand how a new plant in Spore can have a manufacturing advantage over an older plant elsewhere, particularly if the engineering skills are transferable. So much of the growth in markets, including aviation (pre-covid) would be expected to come from Asia. Spore has a highly educated workforce, including a broad international base. It's also a very "can do" economy. Equally, I can see how an area like Barnoldswick and surrounding region can build up a lot of skills in a particular activity - RR turbine engines/blades in this case. It's leveraging of the competing advantages that may swing in favour of one location or the other. It's unfortunate that the union(s) feel that the only way to compete is to go on strike. That's the quickest way to persuade management to think about their alternatives. I'm not aware of unions having much involvement in Spore. I'd be looking for other strategies to make the case for keeping Barlick in business.

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Re: Stocks and shares during covid

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:48 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:15 pm
Hi Lowbank, yes, I get what you are saying about cost allocations - a long, long time ago, more than 40 years ago (just worked that out - and I'm surprised how far back) I used to do some standard costing in engineering plants. It was always important to understand the differences between "standard cost" and actual costs and have a good understanding of the variances - it would bite you if you mixed up the two and made decisions based on inaccurate data. It still applies today.

I can understand how a new plant in Spore can have a manufacturing advantage over an older plant elsewhere, particularly if the engineering skills are transferable. So much of the growth in markets, including aviation (pre-covid) would be expected to come from Asia. Spore has a highly educated workforce, including a broad international base. It's also a very "can do" economy. Equally, I can see how an area like Barnoldswick and surrounding region can build up a lot of skills in a particular activity - RR turbine engines/blades in this case. It's leveraging of the competing advantages that may swing in favour of one location or the other. It's unfortunate that the union(s) feel that the only way to compete is to go on strike. That's the quickest way to persuade management to think about their alternatives. I'm not aware of unions having much involvement in Spore. I'd be looking for other strategies to make the case for keeping Barlick in business.
Like I say there is more to it, but signing an NDA when I left means I cannot say more.

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