Is the fix now worse than the problem?

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PeterWilton
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by PeterWilton » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:29 pm

I am fascinated by the way some people are going with this thing. Can you imagine if we were given the option of shutting down the economy or allowing a terrorist attack to kill 10,000 people? Does anyone seriously believe that we'd even think about keeping the economy open?

This thing is a natural disaster. A natural WMD. It is insane to me that people are still arguing that we shouldnt do everything to stop it/mitigate it even after we've watched it kill about 60-70,000 of us in just the first wave.
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:32 pm

Burnley1989 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:26 pm
TBF there's been no decent film releases this year
Not sure if you're joking, you know they've all been pulled right because they'd make no money back?

They tried with Tennet which was very good by all accounts, but no one went to see it because of there being a global pandemic. That's what caused Bond to postpone for the 3rd time.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Burnley1989 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:36 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:32 pm
Not sure if you're joking, you know they've all been pulled right because they'd make no money back?

They tried with Tennet which was very good by all accounts, but no one went to see it because of there being a global pandemic. That's what caused Bond to postpone for the 3rd time.
Sorry mate, Im being a pest :D
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Grumps » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:37 pm

Mala591 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:25 pm
The government should be making more effort to identify exactly WHERE the transmission is occuring.

What if pubs/gyms etc are being 'put out of business' for the sake of (let's say) 5% transmission rate. It doesn't make sense.

If the source of transmission can be identified then lockdown measures can be targeted and will be more effective (even if that means closing down schools and universities for a few weeks).
The areas in Blackburn for example which have high infection rates don't have a population that visits pubs etc, so they Carnt be the reason for the continual rise of infections in these areas. The local council acknowledged this a few months ago, but don't have the power to do anything meaningful to combat the rise.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:43 pm

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by dsr » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:46 pm

PeterWilton wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:29 pm
I am fascinated by the way some people are going with this thing. Can you imagine if we were given the option of shutting down the economy or allowing a terrorist attack to kill 10,000 people? Does anyone seriously believe that we'd even think about keeping the economy open?

This thing is a natural disaster. A natural WMD. It is insane to me that people are still arguing that we shouldnt do everything to stop it/mitigate it even after we've watched it kill about 60-70,000 of us in just the first wave.
No, I can't. Please give me some sort of plausible scenario where that could happen and that choice could apply, and I'll try and imagine it.

When you put it your way, of course, the answer is easy. Because you're asking the question with the unspoken assumption that stopping people from dying is the only thing that matters. If you factor in the other side of the equation - the job losses, the dementia, the depression, the people dying of other illnesses, the hit to the economy, the enforced austerity - then the answer is less easy.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by ten bellies » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:46 pm

After the failure of the original lockdown to eradicate the virus, there was only one sensible option - herd immunity. Instead we've had this hokey cokey of restrictions that has developed into a political fiasco, backed up by scientists basing their judgements on spurious figures gathered from doctors guessing cause of death. This methodology is causing misery and death that far outweighs the threat of this virus and what is worse is there is no end in sight.
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Burnley1989 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:50 pm

PeterWilton wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:29 pm
I am fascinated by the way some people are going with this thing. Can you imagine if we were given the option of shutting down the economy or allowing a terrorist attack to kill 10,000 people? Does anyone seriously believe that we'd even think about keeping the economy open?

This thing is a natural disaster. A natural WMD. It is insane to me that people are still arguing that we shouldnt do everything to stop it/mitigate it even after we've watched it kill about 60-70,000 of us in just the first wave.
I think the question is, without a cure how long can we survive anyway without an economy?

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:52 pm

ten bellies wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:46 pm
After the failure of the original lockdown to eradicate the virus, there was only one sensible option - herd immunity.
Trolling or woefully ignorant
Lockdowns are not meant to eradicate the virus but reduce the infection rate and get the spread down to a manageable level.
Herd immunity cannot be achieved without a vaccine. Polio, Influenza, Hepatitis, Measles, Tetanus etc etc we never developed herd immunity to these without a vaccine.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by jrgbfc » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:57 pm

If lockdown measures save 20 thousand lives, but then kill an equal number due to missed cancer operations, heart disease, depression, as well as completely destroying our economy and dooming thousands of kids to a lifetime of poverty what have we achieved?
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:08 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:22 pm
as always it's relative to your own circumstance along with your immediate family, group thinking then applies and so starts the never ending circle of what is right and wrong plus the choices made. Some people were ridiculed for suggesting the title of the thread months ago but clearly, for many, if not the majority, the answer will be yes to the question, however they will soon change minds on this if it effects them personally going forward.

There is no easy fix or solution that will satisfy everyone, so we should be cognizant of others circumstances when people post answer to a conundrum.
Don't necessarily agree. But understand the point. I do know that peoples views have changed as things have affected them. For example I know someone who was living in fear of the virus, until his job became at risk then his view shifted totally. But know people on the other side. But its only natural for many peoples views to be biased. Although most people can look at it reasonably impartially.

We all know plenty of people who are at risk. We all know what the risks are. So its a case of least worse option.

My baby daughter needed hospital examination right at the start of lockdown. It has taken until today to have that appointment. Fortunately that has come back all clear. But I can't even imagine how we had felt had it not. The nearly eight months of concern and worry have been enough!

There are people in that similar delay but with major issues that exist that arent being looked at.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:10 pm

Burnley1989 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:25 pm
I mentioned it before but my 85 year old Grandad said to me recently, ''I don't want to be shielded, I'll social distance and wear a mask if I must but If I have to spend the last few years of my life away from my family and locked away at home without family meals, going to Turf Moor and visits to Church, I'd rather die anyway''
Its sad to think there will be a lot of people in the same boat.
My grandma. 90. Isn't suppose to see family. Or go to bingo. Or have any semblance of normality. She is meant to exist. Fortunately she is strong minded (and sound minded) and laid back.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:11 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:57 pm
If lockdown measures save 20 thousand lives, but then kill an equal number due to missed cancer operations, heart disease, depression, as well as completely destroying our economy and dooming thousands of kids to a lifetime of poverty what have we achieved?
The point of several short two week lockdowns which could be planned for, would be so that normal operations, diagnoses and treatments for these could happen in the months between them. Instead of what happened last time which was we let it get so back the lockdown itself took months.
So we've hopefully save most from both groups and not hang either out to dry.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:12 pm

PeterWilton wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:29 pm
I am fascinated by the way some people are going with this thing. Can you imagine if we were given the option of shutting down the economy or allowing a terrorist attack to kill 10,000 people? Does anyone seriously believe that we'd even think about keeping the economy open?

This thing is a natural disaster. A natural WMD. It is insane to me that people are still arguing that we shouldnt do everything to stop it/mitigate it even after we've watched it kill about 60-70,000 of us in just the first wave.
The problem is most pro lock downers think its lockdown or nothing. Most anti lockdowners think the opposite.

The reality is most people sit in the middle of those two camps and just want some logic and balance.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:18 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:12 pm
The reality is most people sit in the middle of those two camps and just want some logic and balance.
Agree here, a problem that was predicted was that we opened up too much too quickly after the major lock down, we did not wait to see what each component did to the infection rate. We could have achieved a neutral buoyancy so to speak and said, 'right stop there' where R was close to 1 again but instead we unplugged all the holes and the water has rushed back in and we're sinking again.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by IAmAClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:25 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:11 pm
The 5.8% is likely to be vastly, vastly over estimated.

Even the WHO have recently acknowledged that its closer to 0.05%!
The UK has 66.5m people.

If the whole population caught the virus, 0.05% would amount to 33,250 deaths.

I repeat, we've had 43,000 deaths.

It is therefore impossible to be anywhere near 0.05% in this country, so the WHO are incorrect. Again.

Let's say 1.5m have had the virus (double the known cases).
The rate then is 2.9%.

2.9% of 6.5m (10% of the population) = around 200,000 deaths.

Still not worth sticking to the fix?

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:28 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:56 pm
If it was so widely "discredited" then why did you need to misrepresent it?

It's written by immunologists.

There may be idsagreement between immunologists as to how best to tackle the virus but that is not the same as "discrediting" something.

The proposed approach has certainly not been "discredited" and the fact that countries who did not enforce strict lockdowns appear to be avoiding second waves is showing there is a lot of credit in taking that approach.

You don't appear to be interested in engaging in serious debate on this martin.
An article about the people behind the GBD:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/89204

A link in which experts (actual real ones) go into why GBD is stupid:

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/v ... eclaration

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:39 pm

Burnley1989 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:50 pm
I think the question is, without a cure how long can we survive anyway without an economy?
Pause the economy. Deal with the virus. Reopen the economy.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:48 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:11 pm
Even the WHO have recently acknowledged that its closer to 0.05%!
CF
WHO published a study from one Standford doctor saying it could be as low as 0.05%
They publish a lot of studies from around the world with varying conclusions, they are after all the World Health Organization.

That is not them 'acknowledging' anything of the sort, merely sharing research data.

Stop using the Daily Mail as your primary source and then misrepresenting what even that says.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... laims.html

If you want to know what WHO says on mortality here you go
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentar ... m-covid-19
IAmAClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:25 pm
It is therefore impossible to be anywhere near 0.05% in this country, so the WHO are incorrect. Again.
In this case, blame the messenger because WHO did not say this.
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Dyched
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Dyched » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:49 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:12 pm
The problem is most pro lock downers think its lockdown or nothing. Most anti lockdowners think the opposite.

The reality is most people sit in the middle of those two camps and just want some logic and balance.
I just think most people are thick tbh.

Most thought Covid would disappear after the lockdown. Most think your Covid safe with a mask. Most think your Covid safe at 2 metres. Most couldn’t understand what were and still are quite simple rules. That Little Britain twerp summed up our countries thickness when he tried taking the **** out of the Boris speech months ago. “Go to work stay home, do go to work”. It was quite simple what the message was. There’s also people trying to find fault in each simple rule “I can go to the pub but not my grans” etc.

English people are generally thick as ****.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:52 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:48 pm
CF
WHO published a study from one Standford doctor saying it could be as low as 0.05%
They publish a lot of studies from around the world with varying conclusions, they are after all the World Health Organization.

That is not them 'acknowledging' anything of the sort, merely sharing research data.

Stop using the Daily Mail as your primary source and then misrepresenting what even that says.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... laims.html

If you want to know what WHO says on mortality here you go
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentar ... m-covid-19
I don't read the Daily mail. 8-) 8-)

My point was that it was CLOSER to 0.05 than the 5 it was originally muted as.

I dont know for sure. If I was a betting man I would say its certainly way less than 1%. With a caveat that if you are old, overweight, otherwise unwell its evidently going to be much higher.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:53 pm

Dyched wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:49 pm
I just think most people are thick tbh.

Most thought Covid would disappear after the lockdown. Most think your Covid safe with a mask. Most think your Covid safe at 2 metres. Most couldn’t understand what were and still are quite simple rules. That Little Britain twerp summed up our countries thickness when he tried taking the **** out of the Boris speech months ago. “Go to work stay home, do go to work”. It was quite simple what the message was. There’s also people trying to find fault in each simple rule “I can go to the pub but not my grans” etc.

English people are generally thick as ****.
I dont dispute that either. I said at the start and maintain we absolutely have to take some accountability for our own actions. And stop blaming others.

That said the inconsistent messages and rules have only amplified things.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Burnley1989 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:51 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:39 pm
Pause the economy. Deal with the virus. Reopen the economy.
But we can’t do that every few months, surely

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Firthy » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:13 pm

It doesn't matter what the government does while you have numpties with no common sense, people who just don't care, people who will do anything to defy the government and those who think it's all a hoax. It's one of those things when it doesn't matter what the majority do as it will all be undone by the minority.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Rowls » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:15 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:39 pm
Pause the economy. Deal with the virus. Reopen the economy.
"Pause the economy"

Pause all of your income without help?

Pause your medical treatment?

Pause looking after your mental health?
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Spiral » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:16 pm

Firthy wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:13 pm
It doesn't matter what the government does while you have numpties with no common sense, people who just don't care, people who will do anything to defy the government and those who think it's all a hoax. It's one of those things when it doesn't matter what the majority do as it will all be undone by the minority.
The fact daily deaths went from almost 1000 per day to single digit numbers within a few months proves that isn't true, and that what governments do, in spite of some people's idiocy, does in fact matter.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Rowls » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:22 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:28 pm
An article about the people behind the GBD:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/89204
Details on the authors of the declaration from your link:
medpagetoday wrote:Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD
Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine and economics at Stanford University
medpagetoday wrote:Martin Kulldorff, PhD
Kulldorff is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and Brigham & Women's Hospital who develops epidemiological and statistical models to detect infectious disease outbreaks.
medpagetoday wrote:Sunetra Gupta, PhD
Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology in the department of zoology at Oxford University
********
AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:28 pm
A link in which experts (actual real ones) go into why GBD is stupid:

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/v ... eclaration
The experts who wrote the Great Barrington Declaration are "actual real ones". You can see their qualifications in the "medpagetoday" article!

The article you've linked is simply an article which disagrees with the political opinion that blanket lockdowns for all are necessary.

You clearly are not capable of discerning between scientific opinions and political decisions or discussing this sensibly.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:31 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:15 pm
"Pause the economy"

Pause all of your income without help?

Pause your medical treatment?

Pause looking after your mental health?
What they should have done in the national lockdown. They partially did it, by shutting down some sections of the economy, but it should have covered financial responsibilities too.

I've explained my idea before, but in a nutshell; freeze mortgage, rent, credit repayments, etc all the way up the economy, so just as the landlord receives no rent, they also have no mortgage commitments during the same time period. Rather than paying expensive furlough wages, the government would only have to pay enough to cover food and utilities, for everyone. Companies could furlough staff without having to worry about paying them, and the other services could continue as they did during the pandemic. It would have saved the economy more than the government has, because businesses could have mothballed without continuing to accrue debt. Everybody would have been all in it together.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:50 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:22 pm
Details on the authors of the declaration from your link:





********



The experts who wrote the Great Barrington Declaration are "actual real ones". You can see their qualifications in the "medpagetoday" article!

The article you've linked is simply an article which disagrees with the political opinion that blanket lockdowns for all are necessary.

You clearly are not capable of discerning between scientific opinions and political decisions or discussing this sensibly.
Not all the claimed 8000 "public health experts signing it were actual real experts.

Had you read my link beyond their brief introductions, you'd have seen that they all opposed lockdown measures even as far back as March. We can all look back and imagine the carnage had their advice been taken. They're likely more informed by the extreme right wing sponsor than actual science. Just as there were always a few doctors back in the 50s and 60s willing to tell people that smoking wasn't that bad for you, they are (as you admit) representing a political desire. On this one I think most people will go with medical advice.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:15 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:31 pm
What they should have done in the national lockdown. They partially did it, by shutting down some sections of the economy, but it should have covered financial responsibilities too.

I've explained my idea before, but in a nutshell; freeze mortgage, rent, credit repayments, etc all the way up the economy, so just as the landlord receives no rent, they also have no mortgage commitments during the same time period. Rather than paying expensive furlough wages, the government would only have to pay enough to cover food and utilities, for everyone. Companies could furlough staff without having to worry about paying them, and the other services could continue as they did during the pandemic. It would have saved the economy more than the government has, because businesses could have mothballed without continuing to accrue debt. Everybody would have been all in it together.
Your suggestion wouldn't work and makes it overly complicated.

It's down to the individual banks and financial services to suspend payments, I don't know if the government can force them to suspend everything, unless can show me otherwise.

How much would the government have to pay each household for food and utilities?
No household is the same and we all know the gov would really struggle with millions of different amounts to confirm and pay out, they're bad enough with the universal credit system and that's been going for a few years now.
They didn't have enough time to devise a system that would work correctly.

They came up with a quick solution that for the most part worked.
Yes some people fell through safety net and unfortunately that was always going to be the case.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:24 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:31 pm
What they should have done in the national lockdown. They partially did it, by shutting down some sections of the economy, but it should have covered financial responsibilities too.

I've explained my idea before, but in a nutshell; freeze mortgage, rent, credit repayments, etc all the way up the economy, so just as the landlord receives no rent, they also have no mortgage commitments during the same time period. Rather than paying expensive furlough wages, the government would only have to pay enough to cover food and utilities, for everyone. Companies could furlough staff without having to worry about paying them, and the other services could continue as they did during the pandemic. It would have saved the economy more than the government has, because businesses could have mothballed without continuing to accrue debt. Everybody would have been all in it together.
That's what did happen though, people were allowed mortgage holidays & even a further extension was allowed & emergency legislation ensured no evictions & help with renting was available, companies could furlough staff & did furlough staff, what some people received from the government actually went far beyond any food or utility bills, if the food shopping & utility bills exceeded the furloughed percentages you are buying high end waitrose/marks & spencers & leaving your GCH on pretty much 24/7 if metered water the tap is never turned off accompanied with a low normal wage. The government couldn't do enough for people initially when the lockdown got introduced.
Last edited by Jakubclaret on Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:25 pm

I find it really interesting how this debate has not really progressed.
In the original thread long ago locked I said how serious this would get, only to be belittled. It’s gone as predicted to be fair.

It was also so obvious we would have second wave worse than the first, history tells us that over and over again.

People don’t seem to be able to grasp if you let this virus run wild, the health service will overload. Not only will Covid kill thousands, the cancer patients and everyone else will not get treatment either. So it’s not a balance between Covid and other illnesses, all those illnesses would die in an overload situation.

It’s going to be a very difficult winter, lots of people will die and we will have a recession.
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by martin_p » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:25 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:57 pm
If lockdown measures save 20 thousand lives, but then kill an equal number due to missed cancer operations, heart disease, depression, as well as completely destroying our economy and dooming thousands of kids to a lifetime of poverty what have we achieved?
How do you think the cancer operations were going to happen when the NHS was overwhelmed with no lockdown?

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:35 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:25 pm
I find it really interesting how this debate has not really progressed.
In the original thread long ago locked I said how serious this would get, only to be belittled. It’s gone as predicted to be fair.

It was also so obvious we would have second wave worse than the first, history tells us that over and over again.

People don’t seem to be able to grasp if you let this virus run wild, the health service will overload. Not only will Covid kill thousands, the cancer patients and everyone else will not get treatment either. So it’s not a balance between Covid and other illnesses, all those illnesses would die in an overload situation.

It’s going to be a very difficult winter, lots of people will die and we will have a recession.
I think it's mostly people who aren't vulnerable with strong immunity who have adopted that mindset, the 50/60 year old man/woman with COPD ect aren't even factored.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Rowls » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:41 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:50 pm
Not all the claimed 8000 "public health experts signing it were actual real experts.

Had you read my link beyond their brief introductions, you'd have seen that they all opposed lockdown measures even as far back as March. We can all look back and imagine the carnage had their advice been taken. They're likely more informed by the extreme right wing sponsor than actual science. Just as there were always a few doctors back in the 50s and 60s willing to tell people that smoking wasn't that bad for you, they are (as you admit) representing a political desire. On this one I think most people will go with medical advice.
Had we taken their advice we'd have been where Sweden was and is.

It is nothing like your ridiculous smoking metaphor.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:59 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:15 pm
Your suggestion wouldn't work and makes it overly complicated.

It's down to the individual banks and financial services to suspend payments, I don't know if the government can force them to suspend everything, unless can show me otherwise.

How much would the government have to pay each household for food and utilities?
No household is the same and we all know the gov would really struggle with millions of different amounts to confirm and pay out, they're bad enough with the universal credit system and that's been going for a few years now.
They didn't have enough time to devise a system that would work correctly.

They came up with a quick solution that for the most part worked.
Yes some people fell through safety net and unfortunately that was always going to be the case.
Pay everyone the same - based on the number of adults and children. That simplifies things. Make prescriptions free. You can’t tell me that’s more complicated than Sunak’s furlough, plus payments to sole traders based on their individual earnings from the last year? :) Plus it would have covered everyone (or everyone not working if you wanted to add a complication), and would have been far less open to fraud, unlike the billions lost under the furlough scheme.

As for pausing transactions, an Act of Parliament could have done that. It could have been simply a law saying “you don’t have to pay these payments until we say you do again” and that way people could still have moved money around. The government forced businesses to close. Banks may be a little more powerful than the local beauty salon, but they wouldn’t have had the power to stop an act of Parliament freezing the economy. We already know the government took the lesser action of mortgage holidays, and a freeze on evictions.

This freeze on evictions still allowed rents owed to mount up. So your beauty salon has been shut for months, unable to earn money, and yet still has outgoings growing. That’s a recipe for disaster, because the landlord still has to pay the mortgage, and the tenant is now in arrears. A freeze could have prevented this.

So, it’s not really that complicated, and could have saved a lot of businesses. We may yet end up going down this route - though I hope not. If the virus mutates and becomes more deadly, would you want to have people among us so desperate they’d break lockdown to try to earn money to feed themselves?

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by mdd2 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:03 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:25 pm
I find it really interesting how this debate has not really progressed.
In the original thread long ago locked I said how serious this would get, only to be belittled. It’s gone as predicted to be fair.

It was also so obvious we would have second wave worse than the first, history tells us that over and over again.

People don’t seem to be able to grasp if you let this virus run wild, the health service will overload. Not only will Covid kill thousands, the cancer patients and everyone else will not get treatment either. So it’s not a balance between Covid and other illnesses, all those illnesses would die in an overload situation.

It’s going to be a very difficult winter, lots of people will die and we will have a recession.
Not sure the Covid case numbers will reach the highs of March April but we cannot afford that to happen as I have posted before. In a normal winter some ops get cancelled due to medical patients blocking surgical beds so any appreciable number of Covid admissions to a hospital will screw its other roles. Another hope is that folk get an effective flu jab that reduces admissions with flu and secondary pneumonia. There have been quite a few additional medical beds blocked awaiting negative Covid tests before transfers back to RH and NH as well as a few beds no doubt in many hospitals of Mental Health patients needing in-patient care of their deteriorating mental health problems likely precipitated by the social deprivation from Covid.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by martin_p » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:19 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:41 pm
Had we taken their advice we'd have been where Sweden was and is.

It is nothing like your ridiculous smoking metaphor.
Sweden’s cases are on the rise again.

Compare Sweden’s death rate with neighbouring Scandinavian countries and tell me their approach was better!

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:20 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:41 pm
Had we taken their advice we'd have been where Sweden was and is.

It is nothing like your ridiculous smoking metaphor.
We suffered over forty thousand deaths with the lockdown. How many more would have died without it? Even after a lockdown and slow reopening, the numbers are rising again - so much so parts of the country are locking down again. Your argument would be laughable, we’re it not for the significantly higher death toll that would have accompanied it; that you seem bizarrely relaxed about contemplating. And for what? Do you not think that with people getting ill and dying a lot more frequently, the rest of us wouldn’t panic and shut down the economy by our own actions? You’re trumpeting the ideology of a rich libertarian American, who has sponsored this idea.

And my analogy is fine thanks. Tobacco companies hired medical people and did research to play down the negative effects of smoking. Oil companies have done the same with climate change. And now billionaire right wingers are (and have been from the beginning) getting medical people to say Covid isn’t too bad. It’s a playbook, and in each case the preponderance of experts and evidence refute them.
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:23 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:59 pm
Pay everyone the same - based on the number of adults and children. That simplifies things. Make prescriptions free. You can’t tell me that’s more complicated than Sunak’s furlough, plus payments to sole traders based on their individual earnings from the last year? :) Plus it would have covered everyone (or everyone not working if you wanted to add a complication), and would have been far less open to fraud, unlike the billions lost under the furlough scheme.

As for pausing transactions, an Act of Parliament could have done that. It could have been simply a law saying “you don’t have to pay these payments until we say you do again” and that way people could still have moved money around. The government forced businesses to close. Banks may be a little more powerful than the local beauty salon, but they wouldn’t have had the power to stop an act of Parliament freezing the economy. We already know the government took the lesser action of mortgage holidays, and a freeze on evictions.

This freeze on evictions still allowed rents owed to mount up. So your beauty salon has been shut for months, unable to earn money, and yet still has outgoings growing. That’s a recipe for disaster, because the landlord still has to pay the mortgage, and the tenant is now in arrears. A freeze could have prevented this.

So, it’s not really that complicated, and could have saved a lot of businesses. We may yet end up going down this route - though I hope not. If the virus mutates and becomes more deadly, would you want to have people among us so desperate they’d break lockdown to try to earn money to feed themselves?
Banks are operating 24 hrs a day, around the world.
The money going in is needed, if you stop that money then you'll run the risk of ruining the banking system.
That might be acceptable to you, but not for most of us.

Weren't people able to suspend mortgage payments?


As for fraud, every system ever devised has been open to fraud.
You can't just pay everyone the same, things do actually cost different amounts around the country, especially fuel.
Different supermarkets with different prices etc.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by boatshed bill » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:24 pm

The death rate is only part of the problem
the long-term health issues make this virus a major threat to the lifestyle we have come to expect.
Will "normal life, as we knew it, ever be returned?

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Devils_Advocate » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:25 pm

martin_p wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:19 pm
Sweden’s cases are on the rise again.

Compare Sweden’s death rate with neighbouring Scandinavian countries and tell me their approach was better!
Image

But what about the impacts on these other country's economys I hear you ask

Image
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Elizabeth » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:30 pm

How do you fix a broken society ?

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by FulledgeClaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:32 pm

martin_p wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:18 pm
Which countries are avoiding second waves?
New Zealand aren't doing too bad as of yet, from what little I know NZ initially locked down no-one in no-one out and most of population stuck to it unlike here, so they pretty much Irradicated it off the Islands and then when it came to reopening they were strict on testing incoming travellers and using quarantine measures. a lot of our problems were the messages coming from Gov eg March- masks are useless July- wear a mask to slow transmission. common sense said face coverings would help slow transmission of a respiratory virus, then you have the measures that were pretty simple to understand but seemed to baffle a lot of people so they ignored them and continue to do so mask/hands/distance. Too many have the I'm alrite jack attitude I'm not in the at risk group so why should I stay in and now we have the same with masks or they don't believe its a real thing and seem to think its a way to control us.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/
you cant really trust china for stats but they are also not to bad now. maybe if they had been more upfront from the beginning it wouldnt be as bad as it is with probably worse to come.
My daughter spent May 2018 to May 2019 teaching in china and in late october a friend of hers who was still over there told her that there was something really big going on but they weren't telling anybody what, even their own population. it was Dec/Jan before they told the rest of the world they had unleashed covid on us and by that time it had had 2-3 months to silently embed itself all around the world.

we could well be in a full national lockdown before the month is out.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by bfcmik » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:40 pm

Burnley1989 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:25 pm
I mentioned it before but my 85 year old Grandad said to me recently, ''I don't want to be shielded, I'll social distance and wear a mask if I must but If I have to spend the last few years of my life away from my family and locked away at home without family meals, going to Turf Moor and visits to Church, I'd rather die anyway''
Its sad to think there will be a lot of people in the same boat.
I have to say I completely agree with your grandad.

None of us know when your 'expiry date' will be (unless you are to be executed) so no-one can ever say they died before their time. What is the point of me 'saving' myself by living a completely pointless existence? I could drop dead the day restrictions are lifted - or I could have another 40 years of life. Who knows.
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:44 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:35 pm
I think it's mostly people who aren't vulnerable with strong immunity who have adopted that mindset, the 50/60 year old man/woman with COPD ect aren't even factored.
But now it’s mainly people who are 30 or 40 who are hospitals, as it spreads it will take in in other age groups.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:47 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:03 pm
Not sure the Covid case numbers will reach the highs of March April but we cannot afford that to happen as I have posted before. In a normal winter some ops get cancelled due to medical patients blocking surgical beds so any appreciable number of Covid admissions to a hospital will screw its other roles. Another hope is that folk get an effective flu jab that reduces admissions with flu and secondary pneumonia. There have been quite a few additional medical beds blocked awaiting negative Covid tests before transfers back to RH and NH as well as a few beds no doubt in many hospitals of Mental Health patients needing in-patient care of their deteriorating mental health problems likely precipitated by the social deprivation from Covid.
It will reach those heights, and beyond.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by Spiral » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:50 pm

I can imagine how it might be easy for some 85 year olds to say something like that, perhaps a bit more difficult for a 62yo, or someone with a pre-existing respiratory disease, heart problems, perhaps someone who is the grandparent guardian of a child without living parents. The thing about this is you don't get to pick whether, or whom or how many people you kill by spreading it. Protective measures aren't just there for those who are relaxed about dying, they're also there for those who'd rather not die quite yet.
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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:54 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:23 pm
Banks are operating 24 hrs a day, around the world.
The money going in is needed, if you stop that money then you'll run the risk of ruining the banking system.
That might be acceptable to you, but not for most of us.

Weren't people able to suspend mortgage payments?


As for fraud, every system ever devised has been open to fraud.
You can't just pay everyone the same, things do actually cost different amounts around the country, especially fuel.
Different supermarkets with different prices etc.
Actually - if all you’re doing is paying for food and basic utilities, as long as it covers the costs of the most expensive area - probably London - then everyone’s okay. Rent, mortgage, credit card bills - they’re all different, but when you take them out of the equation, we’re all quite similar. If you want to add transport - like when during a lockdown you have to go to Barnard Castle for an eye test - then let’s add some for transport too.

As you say mortgage payments were suspended. But banks didn’t go bust. The government basically took over lots of things - railways, and buses - so there’s no reason they couldn’t have loaned the banks a few quid too. I wouldn’t like to see the banking sector go bust.

Again - entirely workable, way less fraud than furlough (which had way more fraud than regular benefits - which people often complain is a massive drain on our economy), and nobody gets left behind. HoP legislates the economy begins again after we’ve beaten the disease, and businesses emerge from mothball.

Compare that to now.

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Re: Is the fix now worse than the problem?

Post by dsr » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:59 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:47 pm
It will reach those heights, and beyond.
Obviously there is little or no statistical evidence to suggest it will be worse, so why are you so adamant that it will be worse this time?

Locked