3 from 5 already

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RalphCoatesComb
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3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:03 pm

Image

Brighton

Fulham

West Brom

Sheffield United and

Clarets

It's going to be difficult. Season started yesterday

Time to get some points on the board !

Goobs
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Goobs » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:13 pm

********. Leeds look like they can't buy a win at the moment, Newcastle aren't good. Long way to go and plenty of teams can go on a run like us or Sheffield while we do similar to their starts.
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tiger76
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:16 pm

RalphCoatesComb wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:03 pm
Image

Brighton

Fulham

West Brom

Sheffield United and

Clarets

It's going to be difficult. Season started yesterday

Time to get some points on the board !
It's looking that way, not a bad weekend really, we picked up a useful point at Brighton, and both Fulham & Sheff Utd lost, importantly we still have to play all those teams at home, and I wouldn't totally discount Leeds or possibly one or two others from the equation yet, if we can amass 4/5 wins from the games against those sides around us, it'll help immensely in our survival battle. We'll have a much clearer picture by Xmas, that's usually when the table takes some shape.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by TsarBomba » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:26 pm

Looking at the goals conceded column, we’ve conceded fewer than anyone else down there (albeit one game less). That is a real positive we can build on. It gives us something to work with.

Apart from the odd mauling here and there that can happen to anyone, we generally don’t ship too many. I’d wager the bottom 4/5 down there with us concede more by seasons end, in some cases much more.

We need to carry on keeping it tight and keep in touch with everyone else, until our strikers hit form and/or we reach the next transfer window, when hopefully we’ll have a bit of investment to play with.

Keep the faith.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by thelaughingclaret » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:38 pm

2 from 4. We are doomed. Can’t see any turn around this season. At some point your luck has to run out.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Bigvince » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:41 pm

Goobs wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:13 pm
********. Leeds look like they can't buy a win at the moment, Newcastle aren't good. Long way to go and plenty of teams can go on a run like us or Sheffield while we do similar to their starts.
Yes you’re right Leeds have gone one league game without a win! That’s a fair losing streak

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by ElectroClaret » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:44 pm

Very early days. Quite a few just above us will get sucked into it.

Relax. 8-)

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Rileybobs » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:47 pm

Bigvince wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:41 pm
Yes you’re right Leeds have gone one league game without a win! That’s a fair losing streak
They’ve lost their last two, both 4-1 defeats.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Bigvince » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:51 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:47 pm
They’ve lost their last two, both 4-1 defeats.
Apologies, I was just going off the table the OP put up, but it’s hardly a long losing streak!

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Rileybobs » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:53 pm

Bigvince wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:51 pm
Apologies, I was just going off the table the OP put up, but it’s hardly a long losing streak!
True that.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Vegas Claret » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:53 pm

Southampton and Palace have had terrible starts in previous seasons and have got out of it - no reason we can't

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Goobs » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:00 pm

Bigvince wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:51 pm
Apologies, I was just going off the table the OP put up, but it’s hardly a long losing streak!
True but they have looked Awful defensively when I have seen them in last few games. Maybe I got a little carried away but my point was that it is hardly a case of 3 from 5.

We win our game in hand and we are about 5 points off Leeds and others which is easily overturned over 30 games.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by bfcjg » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:01 pm

I think a slight change in our style of play and some reinforcements and we will be ok

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Bigvince » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:05 pm

Goobs wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:00 pm
True but they have looked Awful defensively when I have seen them in last few games. Maybe I got a little carried away but my point was that it is hardly a case of 3 from 5.

We win our game in hand and we are about 5 points off Leeds and others which is easily overturned over 30 games.
I haven’t watched their performances, was trying to judge them off results. I agree their are more teams that could be dragged into the relegation picture. There’s a long way to go, with all the usual twists and turns!

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:53 pm
Southampton and Palace have had terrible starts in previous seasons and have got out of it - no reason we can't
After eight games. There’s usually at least two if not all three of the bottom three in there that finish there. One exception was three years ago. But the year before that all three went down.

The odds are against us even now.

Last three seasons attached.

The palace Bournemouth and Leicester one is the one where none went down but the previous season to that all three went down.
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Dyched
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Dyched » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:18 pm

Newcastle and Everton didn’t go down CFC.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Bosscat » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:21 pm

Dyched wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:18 pm
Newcastle and Everton didn’t go down CFC.
Don't spoil a good story with facts Dyched 😉

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Bin Ont Turf » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:37 pm

Watching Leeds' defending for the 4th goal tells me that they are going to be in and around it.

Proper shite but proper funny.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:41 am

Dyched wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:18 pm
Newcastle and Everton didn’t go down CFC.
I know. That’s exactly what I said.

At least two out of three most seasons.

None that one season three years ago.

Then all three the year before.

Basically most seasons at least two of the bottom three after eight games go down.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Quicknick » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:26 am

RalphCoatesComb wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:03 pm
Image

Brighton

Fulham

West Brom

Sheffield United and

Clarets

It's going to be difficult. Season started yesterday

Time to get some points on the board !
My pre-season prediction of Leeds to go down still stands. Conceded more goals than any other team. Watch them drop.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Vegas Claret » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:21 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 pm
After eight games. There’s usually at least two if not all three of the bottom three in there that finish there. One exception was three years ago. But the year before that all three went down.

The odds are against us even now.

Last three seasons attached.

The palace Bournemouth and Leicester one is the one where none went down but the previous season to that all three went down.
I know CC, but no point waving the white flag !!
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by leelad » Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:20 am

With the bottom 5 teams, it's difficult to see any of them going on an unbeaten run of a couple of games. Where are the goals going to come from from each of these teams?I think the bottom 5 will be the same bottom 5 at Christmas. For Burnley, the bottom 5 has now become our 'mini league'.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Damo » Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:26 am

If 2020 was a thread

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Marney&Mee » Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:32 am

tiger76 wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:16 pm
It's looking that way, not a bad weekend really, we picked up a useful point at Brighton, and both Fulham & Sheff Utd lost, importantly we still have to play all those teams at home, and I wouldn't totally discount Leeds or possibly one or two others from the equation yet, if we can amass 4/5 wins from the games against those sides around us, it'll help immensely in our survival battle. We'll have a much clearer picture by Xmas, that's usually when the table takes some shape.
We still have most teams to play at home...there’s 30 games left!

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by jojomk1 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:49 am

bfcjg wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:01 pm
I think a slight change in our style of play and some reinforcements and we will be ok
Well the first idea isn't going to happen at all

And the second isn't going to happen until next year at the earliest

Otherwise, some good points made
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Herts Clarets » Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:59 am

TsarBomba wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:26 pm
Looking at the goals conceded column, we’ve conceded fewer than anyone else down there (albeit one game less). That is a real positive we can build on. It gives us something to work with.

We have also scored less than anyone else. Goals win games, not clean sheets. We have scored 3 goals in 7 games. 5 games we haven't scored. We have had 1 shot on target in the last 2 games. There are no positives to take from any of those numbers. We are in trouble and on current form don't look like we have the ability to get out of it.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:20 am

Herts Clarets wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:59 am
We have also scored less than anyone else. Goals win games, not clean sheets. We have scored 3 goals in 7 games. 5 games we haven't scored. We have had 1 shot on target in the last 2 games. There are no positives to take from any of those numbers. We are in trouble and on current form don't look like we have the ability to get out of it.
Big Sam has always made a big thing about keeping clean sheets and pointed out that unless you can defend you have no chance.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by warksclaret » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:35 pm

We need to get better in the final third. Barring injuries in defense, that part of our game is not such a worry, even with the possession stats going against us. Get Dwight terrorising them again wide left, rather than trying to play like Pirlo in the middle, and lets get Jay Rob back and we have a chance

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by bfcjg » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:41 pm

jojomk1 wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:49 am
Well the first idea isn't going to happen at all

And the second isn't going to happen until next year at the earliest

Otherwise, some good points made
I bow to your superior wisdom. Are you doing the punditry for Sky today ?

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:56 pm

Marney&Mee wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:32 am
We still have most teams to play at home...there’s 30 games left!
31 for us actually., however the 3 home games we've already had, were Southampton who are flying ATM, Spurs & Chelsea, those aren't the type of games which will ultimately define our season, and we're more then capable of picking up plenty of wins against the teams in the lower half of the table, unfortunately we haven't played many of them yet, and in the 2 games we have played against fellow strugglers, we've amassed 2 useful away draws, if you can draw away to your relegation rivals, and beat them at home you'll generally be ok come the end of the season.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by ClaretTony » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:03 pm

This time last season Everton were in the bottom three and Bournemouth were in the top half

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Yeovil1951 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:11 pm

Our three home games have been against 3 of the present top 4 and we have played 4 of the top 5 and the 3 other matches we have drawn 2 of 3 all away its not as bad as we think UTC

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Goddy » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:18 pm

Herts Clarets wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:59 am
We have also scored less than anyone else. Goals win games, not clean sheets. We have scored 3 goals in 7 games. 5 games we haven't scored. We have had 1 shot on target in the last 2 games. There are no positives to take from any of those numbers. We are in trouble and on current form don't look like we have the ability to get out of it.
I used to be a believer in your theory but speaking to a couple of (amateur, admittedly) coaches, they both went on about the importance of essentially starting with the idea that you should aim not to concede. I appreciate it's a truism, but if you don't concede you'll always get something out of the game. Perhaps, the match against Brighton was a perfect example of that. Didn't play particularly well; didn't really look like scoring; however, didn't concede - came away with a point.

Personally, after the Brighton game I'm much more optimistic. Defence looked pretty solid, just need a break in front of goal and we'll be off and running.

Personally, I think WBA, Fulham are as nailed on for relegation as you can get at this stage of the season and I think we will be ahead of at least one of Sheff U, Brighton, Leeds, Newcastle come the end of the season. That being said, I think it'll be a bumpy ride on the way.

UTC

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Sozturf7 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:51 pm

How can you not agree with CT, with just a few games gone. Perhaps lockdown has caused a few on here to loose the plot.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by IanMcL » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:55 pm

Only 93 points on offer?
Oh dear!

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by DAVETHEVICAR » Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:10 pm

We have played 4 of the top 5

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Firthy » Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:40 pm

On a positive note we gained a point on the other 3 teams closest to us this weekend. Fulham and West Brom aren't good enough and Sheffields bubble has burst. I would like to think our experience when all our players are fit will see us through this season. I'd settle for 17th at present and then hopefully if the takeover goes ahead we can invest in the squad for next season.

And yes I'm a glass half full person :)

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:30 pm

Miles away from 3from five.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:35 pm

ClaretTony wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:03 pm
This time last season Everton were in the bottom three and Bournemouth were in the top half
You are so right but the fixtures don't get any easier.

Palace

Citeh

Everton

Arsenal

Villa

I'm a Happy Clapper and always Glass Half Full but...

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by jurek » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:56 pm

Small margins as Dyche often says but at present
we're down there on merit.
Any one or two of those bottom five could string a few results together
and edge further up the table.
It doesn't look as if we're close to doing so yet and after the Palace game
we're got some very tough games coming up.

So it might be some while before can do so

We need it to still be 3 out of 5 come New Year.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by dsr » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:44 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 pm
After eight games. There’s usually at least two if not all three of the bottom three in there that finish there. One exception was three years ago. But the year before that all three went down.

The odds are against us even now.

Last three seasons attached.

The palace Bournemouth and Leicester one is the one where none went down but the previous season to that all three went down.
At risk of casting doubt on your statisitcs:

1. If in the last three years, 5 out of 9 clubs in the bottom three have survived, then doesn't that on the face of it suggest that the odds are in our favour?

2. We haven't played 8 games.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:09 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:44 am
We haven't played 8 games
We'd better get Robbie Blake out of retirement now then with our missing game being Manure at t'Turf ;)
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Herts Clarets » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:27 am

Goddy wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:18 pm
I used to be a believer in your theory but speaking to a couple of (amateur, admittedly) coaches, they both went on about the importance of essentially starting with the idea that you should aim not to concede. I appreciate it's a truism, but if you don't concede you'll always get something out of the game. Perhaps, the match against Brighton was a perfect example of that. Didn't play particularly well; didn't really look like scoring; however, didn't concede - came away with a point.

Personally, after the Brighton game I'm much more optimistic. Defence looked pretty solid, just need a break in front of goal and we'll be off and running.

Personally, I think WBA, Fulham are as nailed on for relegation as you can get at this stage of the season and I think we will be ahead of at least one of Sheff U, Brighton, Leeds, Newcastle come the end of the season. That being said, I think it'll be a bumpy ride on the way.

UTC
Aiming not to concede is all well and good. It becomes a problem when that is the only plan. Eventually, whether through skill or luck, the opposition are going to score. If, as is the case with us at present, you don't look likely to score if you carried on playing after the other side have gone off for their half time oranges, then it becomes a real problem.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by CharlieinNewMexico » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:52 am

bfcjg wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:01 pm
I think a slight change in our style of play and some reinforcements and we will be ok
You’re expecting a slight change after a 100 games of 442 and lumping it forward to Barnes and Wood? 😴😴😴😴

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Down_Rover » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:15 am

If you don't concede you get at least a point. If fact you only need to score one for a win

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Terry Cochrane » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:37 am

Down_Rover wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:15 am
If you don't concede you get at least a point. If fact you only need to score one for a win
Its worked the last two seasons and expect it to eventually work again. Defence getting its house in order first and then we start to nick wins. They will come.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:50 am

Down_Rover wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:15 am
If you don't concede you get at least a point. If fact you only need to score one for a win

Post lockdown last season we scored nine goals in our nine matches yet got fifteen points.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:21 pm

The stats over the last 3-5 seasons show that you are more likely to get relegated if you are in the bottom three of the goals for column than if you are in the bottom three of the goals against column

This suggests that you have more chance of staying up if you score goals than if you keep clean sheets

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:41 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:21 pm
The stats over the last 3-5 seasons show that you are more likely to get relegated if you are in the bottom three of the goals for column than if you are in the bottom three of the goals against column

This suggests that you have more chance of staying up if you score goals than if you keep clean sheets
That approach worked for Bournemouth for a few years, but last season they eventually succumbed to the inevitable, hardly a surprise after shipping 60+ goals for 5 seasons on the spin, yes we need to start scoring goals, we all know that, but we also need to get back to keeping clean sheets first and foremost, once we start doing that regularly we'll start picking up a few wins, I do agree the Barnes/Wood combo isn't working, and we need to change it up, probably by bringing in Jay for Barnes, if memory serves me correctly Wood and Jay were our 2 top scorers last season, of course even with them in the team we'll still need to provide them with service, they can't fire the weapons without any bullets.

Devils_Advocate
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:41 pm
That approach worked for Bournemouth for a few years, but last season they eventually succumbed to the inevitable, hardly a surprise after shipping 60+ goals for 5 seasons on the spin, yes we need to start scoring goals, we all know that, but we also need to get back to keeping clean sheets first and foremost, once we start doing that regularly we'll start picking up a few wins, I do agree the Barnes/Wood combo isn't working, and we need to change it up, probably by bringing in Jay for Barnes, if memory serves me correctly Wood and Jay were our 2 top scorers last season, of course even with them in the team we'll still need to provide them with service, they can't fire the weapons without any bullets.
I wasn't suggesting either as an approach cos you should be just trying to win or draw each match as best you can

I was more commenting about how the majority view on here seems to be that the way to survive as one of the weaker teams is to have a good defence rather than a good attack but the stats don't really support that view

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