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Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:27 pm
by tiger76
brexit wrote: ↑Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:12 pm
It was pre season but I think it will be WBA, sheff utd and Southampton
I can't see Southampton going down, yes they've had a bad run, but they picked up a useful point yesterday, and already have 30 points on the board.
And a decent haul of points in their next 5 games will see them effectively safe, and it's a fixture list I wouldn't mind Leeds. Everton, Sheff Utd, Man City & Brighton, at worse you'd expect them to amass 4 points out of those games, and they would probably be only a win and a draw away from what most people assume will be the magic number 37/38.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:58 am
by Hibsclaret
The relegation odds are interesting as you can get between 80/1 and 100/1 on Southampton going down and yet Palace are around 10/1 as an example. Bearing in mind Southampton are 1 point above Palace and have been in far worse form (1 win in the last 12 matches) and they have a similar run in the odds are completely wrong in my view. 80/1 is a great price for Southampton to be relegated. Whether it will happen remains to be seen but I suggest a few quid on that tbh.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:18 pm
by tiger76
So after this round of fixtures it looks like 3 from 6, it's a safe assumption to count Sheff Utd & West Brom out now, they both have too much ground to make up. so it's 1 from 4 for me Fulham, Newcastle, Brighton or Burnley, Southampton could get dragged in, but it's looks unlikely TBH, they will surely starting picking up points again soon.
So all we need to do is come above one of Brighton, Fulham or Newcastle, and if we can take say 4 points from the trip to Fulham and the visit of Newcastle we'll be almost there, as I have no doubt we'll scramble some points in our other games.
Sky will of course be hoping for a Fulham-Newcastle winner takes all clash on the final day, and the way things are heading they may well get their wish.
As long as we're safe by then I wouldn't mind a Fulham victory, at least we'll know we're going to get a result against them at TM, and it would be poetic justice if Hendrick suffered relegation after supposedly leaving Burnley to go on to bigger things.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:42 pm
by Elizabeth
When this thread was started we were 9 points behind Newcastle and only I point above Sheffield Utd. West Brom were above us .
The thread was started with good intentions but was unfortunately an early indication of the fear some people have about relegation .
That’s fair enough but what isn’t is the continuation of this fear factor.
Yeh, injuries , small squad, boring Dyche tactics, McNeil only having one foot, Tarkowski shouting at a team mate to pull his finger out....... how many excuses do some people want to feel miserable.
This thread could easily be replaced with a thread of how close we could be to finishing above Arsenal this season . But it won’t because no one has the proverbials to start one !
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:54 pm
by Hibsclaret
I said it was nonsense at the start and it remains so. People are now counting Palace out because they got the luckiest win possible tonight. They are quite capable of losing 7 or 8 on the spin as they proved post lockdown. They were worse than we were on Saturday tbh and got out of jail big time tonight.
Anyone Wolves and below can go down still, pretty much half the league and that’s what I said at the start of the thread. Fulham have got 7 points in a week and if they do that again all the bottom half need to watch out. Also West Brom didn’t play like a relegated team last week so they could do a 2015 Leicester escape. All still to play for.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:49 am
by jojomk1
Elizabeth wrote: ↑Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:42 pm
When this thread was started we were 9 points behind Newcastle and only I point above Sheffield Utd. West Brom were above us .
The thread was started with good intentions but was unfortunately an early indication of the fear some people have about relegation .
That’s fair enough but what isn’t is the continuation of this fear factor.
Yeh, injuries , small squad, boring Dyche tactics, McNeil only having one foot, Tarkowski shouting at a team mate to pull his finger out....... how many excuses do some people want to feel miserable.
This thread could easily be replaced with a thread of how close we could be to finishing above Arsenal this season . But it won’t because no one has the proverbials to start one !
So you just did
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:04 am
by Elizabeth
Yeh. I thought I’d try it just to see if it got any reaction. Apparently I’m living on Fantasy Island , which to be honest is a nice place to live and I suspect much better than Gilligan’s Island with all the shipwrecked crew that frequent this board
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:38 pm
by Spijed
We certainly don't look anywhere near a team who's likely to get relegated.
6-7 more points should be enough, especially with games against Wolves, Leeds, Southampton, Fulham, Sheff United and Newcastle to come.
Plus the likelihood of the odd point against Man U, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton & West Ham.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:49 pm
by Aclaret
11 games to play, 2 wins should be enough.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:49 pm
by tiger76
Spijed wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:38 pm
We certainly don't look anywhere near a team who's likely to get relegated.
6-7 more points should be enough, especially with games against Wolves, Leeds, Southampton, Fulham, Sheff United and Newcastle to come.
Plus the likelihood of the odd point against Man U, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton & West Ham.
That point tonight, and more importantly the 2nd half performance in particular doesn't suggest a team fearing relegation, and you expect at least a couple of wins from the likes of Fulham, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheff Utd (although all being well we'll already be safe by then) Southampton (they will most certainly looking over their shoulders now) & Wolves who are inconsistent to say the least, and as tonight has shown we will nick points from some of the top sides, as I posted on another thread despite all the doom and gloom posters on here we have lost 1 in 6, so even if we're not at our best we will pick up points, and that's important if you are going to stay up.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:01 pm
by warksclaret
The "old" Burnley that we like turned up tonight, enabling them to distance themselves from the performances v Bornemouth, WBA and Spurs. Its nice to know the lads still have it in the tank
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:10 pm
by boatshed bill
Spijed wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:38 pm
We certainly don't look anywhere near a team who's likely to get relegated.
.
sometimes we do, sometimes we don't.
As one poster often says: "exciting times"
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:40 pm
by Bosscat
Aclaret wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:49 pm
11 games to play, 2 wins should be enough.
2 wins 3 draws should definitely be enough but ... lets be greedy
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:17 pm
by Spijed
There's every chance that if we can get at least a draw against Arsenal (regardless of what happens at Everton) we will have come through these four difficult fixtures with our position strengthened considering Fulham have Liverpool & Man City in their next two matches.
And then there is a nice gap before Southampton.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:28 am
by jojomk1
Fulham will get very few (if any) points in March and April but will fancy winning three of their last four games
Newcastle look a busted flush at the minute but still have 5 games to play against relegation rivals (four of these away)
Final game of the season - Fulham v Newcastle
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:33 am
by gc14
Fulham have Liverpool away Man City at home in the next two fixtures ... 'if' they lose them two games they will have 23 points
with 9 to play ... that's 4 wins out of 9 games just to get 35 ...
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:02 am
by dibraidio
Southampton could have a big impact on the relegation situation. Their next games are Sheff Utd, Man City, Brighton, Burnley, WBA and then Palace.
With the exception of Man City you'd think they'd be hoping for a minimum of a point a game which would put them on 35 and they still have Fulham to play.
Newcastle have got West Brom, Villa, Brighton,Spurs and Burnley in their next 5 games, I'm sure they'll see at least 3 of those as winnable including us.
Fulham have got Liverpool, Man City, Villa, Wolves, Arsenal and Chelsea as their next games. They'll have to up their game significantly if they're to get 10 points from that lot, which is what they'd need to be on a point a game with 4 games to go.
It would take a massive injury crisis for one of Southampton, Palace, Newcastle, Brighton or Burnley to end up in that bottom 3.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:14 am
by ElectroClaret
Beat Arsenal (not easy, of course), we're laughing.
There's no way after that we wouldn't pick up two or three more points, which is all we'd need.
But we'll get more than that.
UTC.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:53 am
by Top Claret
Sheffield United and WBA down bar the shouting. Final spot between Fulham, Newcastle and Southampton, unless us and BHA blow up which I can't see.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:10 pm
by Spijed
With ten games to go its worth looking back at the table ten games ago.
Fulham have closed the gap on us by three points since then.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:23 pm
by tiger76
Top Claret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:53 am
Sheffield United and WBA down bar the shouting. Final spot between Fulham, Newcastle and Southampton, unless us and BHA blow up which I can't see.
After this weekend's results I'd agree with Sheff Utd & West Brom being dead and buried, both needed to win to win their games this weekend to have even a slim chance of escape, where I disagree is you including Southampton in the at risk teams for that final spot, their win yesterday while not securing their PL place has gone a mighty long way to ensuring they'll be playing at this level next season.
So it looks like 1/4 between Brighton, Burnley, Fulham, Newcastle, and only Fulham of those 4 won this weekend, Brighton lost a point late on, and Burnley & Newcastle could only draw, thus allowing Fulham to close on the pack.
Now if I was pushed to pick one of those 4 to take the last relegation slot I'd opt for Newcastle, but not with any great confidence it must be said, and as a Burnley fan I'm certainly not feeling very secure given how tight the table is just at the moment.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:50 pm
by boatshed bill
We are right back in it, 4 points from 15. If we don't improve on that we could well get overtaken by the 3 immediately below us.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:57 pm
by Tall Paul
boatshed bill wrote: ↑Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:50 pm
We are right back in it, 4 points from 15. If we don't improve on that we could well get overtaken by the 3 immediately below us.
They'd need to improve on their form too, of course.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:02 pm
by Spijed
boatshed bill wrote: ↑Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:50 pm
We are right back in it, 4 points from 15. If we don't improve on that we could well get overtaken by the 3 immediately below us.
Whilst it certainly is too close for comfort one thing to remember is that a group of teams never go on a good run.
It's only ever one, two at the most. As long as we got another 7-8 points then that's it, safe for another season.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:22 pm
by Bigvince
The good news is our last 2 performances have been excellent, and even the under par performances against Fulham and West Brom yielded 2 points! While Newcastle look shocking and Brighton keep snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:08 pm
by boatshed bill
Well let's just hope there are three sides even more crap than we are.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:44 pm
by Steve1956
boatshed bill wrote: ↑Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:08 pm
Well let's just hope there are three sides even more crap than we are.
the current bottom 3 were relegated weeks ago...chill out!
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:48 pm
by Spijed
If Southampton lose to Brighton tomorrow by two goals we go above them as well.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:48 pm
by tiger76
Steve1956 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:44 pm
the current bottom 3 were relegated weeks ago...chill out!
Don't care who goes down, but it won't be us now that's for sure.
If I had to predict now I'd plump for.
Newcastle
West Brom
Sheff Utd
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:52 pm
by Spijed
And we are only five points behind a top half finish!
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:59 pm
by boatshed bill
This latest result has put us firmly in control of our PL future. Hard to see us not clearing 40 points now.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:01 pm
by Bigvince
tiger76 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:48 pm
Don't care who goes down, but it won't be us now that's for sure.
If I had to predict now I'd plump for.
Newcastle
West Brom
Sheff Utd
I’d have to agree with that tiger, Fulham will surely overhaul Newcastle, who look awful at the moment!
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:04 pm
by nil_desperandum
boatshed bill wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:59 pm
This latest result has put us firmly in control of our PL future. Hard to see us not clearing 40 points now.
That's correct, but it's looking as though (unusually) 40 might be needed this season.
Brighton Fulham and Newcastle all have a few very "winnable" games.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:06 pm
by Dark Cloud
nil_desperandum wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:04 pm
That's correct, but it's looking as though (unusually) 40 might be needed this season.
Brighton Fulham and Newcastle all have a few very "winnable" games.
Even I still don't think it'll be 40.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:36 pm
by RalphCoatesComb
What is particularly interesting about this table are the teams that are no longer in it... City, United, West Ham and Leeds
Now that we're as good as safe, the other candidates (AND NEWCASTLE) are still there, and rightly so. Strangely, Fulham are still the team that I see as favourites to be for the chop
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:43 pm
by lakedistrictclaret
Having had a look at the final tables for the last twenty years or so, it appears that when there is one team adrift at the bottom, or when no sides are adrift, the number of points needed to stay up is usually 33-35.
However, when there are two sides adrift, as in this season, the magic number rises to 38-40. We are going to be ok, but I can see Fulham Brighton or Newcastle going down with 37.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:51 pm
by RalphCoatesComb
Apparently, West Ham went down with 42 points in 2002-3
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:03 pm
by clarethomer
If you were to replicate the last 5 games points accumulation and project that forward - its Brighton that needs to be worried most I think from those outside of the drop zone.
Fulham would expect to have lost today. As long as they keep on playing similarly - I think they have the potential to get up to 35pts
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:09 pm
by RalphCoatesComb
clarethomer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:03 pm
Fulham would expect to have lost today. As long as they keep on playing similarly - I think they have the potential to get up to 35pts
35 will probably not be enough
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:23 pm
by whentheballmoves
I said a few games ago that 2 wins and 2 draws would be enough.
We've since won 1 and drawn 2. I reckon another win should do it.
I think, therefore, that we will be safe, and will end up in the high 30s or low 40s, points wise...
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:29 pm
by clarethomer
RalphCoatesComb wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:09 pm
35 will probably not be enough
You may be right and by looking at the pts per game over the last 5 games and predicting the same points per game over the remaining games gives you the following;
- Screenshot 2021-03-13 at 22.15.09.png (92.79 KiB) Viewed 2953 times
Southampton - 0.8pts per game (1.17 Season To Date PPG Average) - 10 games left - further 8pts predicted = 41pts
Burnley - 1.2pts per game (1.14 Season To Date PPG Average) - 9 games left = 11pts predicted = 44pts
Newcastle - 0.6pts per game (1 Season To Date PPG Average) - 10 games left = 6pts predicted = 34pts
Brighton - 0.4pts per game ( 0.96 Season To Date PPG Average) - 11 games left = 5pts predicted = 31pts
Fulham - 1.4pts per game - (0.89 Season To Date PPG Average) 9 games left = 13pts predicted = 39pts
WBA - 1pt per game (0.62 Season To Date PPG Average) - 9 games left = 9pts predicted = 27pts
Sheff Utd - 0.6pts per game (0.5 Season To Date PPG Average) - 10 games left = 6pts predicted = 20pts.
I appreciate that the difficulty of fixtures hasn't been considered but what I predict is that providing Fulham don't lose their heads after today's loss, they are in a great position to drop Brighton into the relegation zone and keep Newcastle on their toes.
Interestingly, we are probably the only team in that group who are showing consistency to the longer Season To Date PPG average which I think shows that we have the stamina/ability within the squad to see the season out.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:45 am
by superdimitri
I really hope it's Hove albion. Would be the icing on the cake.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:20 pm
by RalphCoatesComb
superdimitri wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:45 am
I really hope it's Hove albion. Would be the icing on the cake.
Being selfish, I want Fulham to go down. They may give us more problems than the others next season. My heart wants Bruce to go down though.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:03 pm
by tiger76
RalphCoatesComb wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:20 pm
Being selfish, I want Fulham to go down. They may give us more problems than the others next season. My heart wants Bruce to go down though.
Now we're safe I wouldn't mind Newcastle dropping, it would be karma for Hendrick he thought he was leaving Burnley for better things, and he could be playing in the Championship next season.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:16 pm
by Duffer_
I want Fulham to go down because half of their team is regularly made up of loan players.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:27 pm
by RalphCoatesComb
tiger76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:03 pm
It would be karma for Hendrick he thought he was leaving Burnley for better things, and he could be playing in the Championship next season.
Not sure if that even entered the equation. More money for him, and his Agent of course!
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:47 pm
by boatshed bill
tiger76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:03 pm
Now we're safe I wouldn't mind Newcastle dropping, it would be karma for Hendrick he thought he was leaving Burnley for better things, and he could be playing in the Championship next season.
No team is safe on 33 points, Tiger.
But it's looking very likely we'll stay up after yesterday's fine win.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:29 pm
by tiger76
boatshed bill wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:47 pm
No team is safe on 33 points, Tiger.
But it's looking very likely we'll stay up after yesterday's fine win.
No of course we're not mathematically safe quite yet, but obviously we won't finish on 33 points, and any reasonable pundit will say we're safe.
It just might take us another couple of games to confirm our PL status for another year, but it's only a question of when we secure our safety not if.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:42 pm
by boatshed bill
tiger76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:29 pm
No of course we're not mathematically safe quite yet, but obviously we won't finish on 33 points, and any reasonable pundit will say we're safe.
It just might take us another couple of games to confirm our PL status for another year, but it's only a question of when we secure our safety not if.
2 more wins minimum, if one is against Newcastle all the better.
I am always cautious where BFC is concerned.
And if we produced the same form as Southampton have over the last 12 games we could still be in the mix.
Re: 3 from 5 already
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:53 pm
by tiger76
boatshed bill wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:42 pm
2 more wins minimum, if one is against Newcastle all the better.
I am always cautious where BFC is concerned.
And if we produced the same form as Southampton have over the last 12 games we could still be in the mix.
Yes we'll probably need a couple of wins to be sure, but we'll surely get those given our remaining fixtures, and even a win and a few draws should suffice now.
Thankfully for us we got our bad run out of the way early in the season, and now we've hit our straps we're coming on strong, indeed if anything we're more likely to climb the table than fall down it.
