Today's footie 2/1/21

[box_of_frogs]

BFS will be telling the ground staff to leave the snow on the pitch to get it called off

My thoughts exactly. Cheating fat barsteward

[ClaretTony]

Fat Sam isnt keeping these up im sorry

We know he’s good at keeping teams up but I don’t think he’s ever had a two and a half year break before and that could be a big difference.

[ClaretTony]

3-0

[Vegas Claret]

bit gutted for the lad who tried his best to score an OG but hit the post - was easier to score

[ClaretTony]

4-0

[Vegas Claret]

wow

[ClaretTony]

bit gutted for the lad who tried his best to score an OG but hit the post - was easier to score

Then he got the rebound smacked straight at him

[tim_noone]

Could be 8 or 9.....

[box_of_frogs]

Could be 8 or 9.....

Hopefully!

[FCBurnley]

Very decent day for us. Big defeat looming for BFS. Defeat for Sheff U who are finally looking dispirited and just a point for Brighton against a weakened Wolves.

[tim_noone]

Two from three down.....one place up for grabs.

[Bosscat]

Big Sam won't get relegated ... Sacked perhaps but Relegated never

[jollyjack]

Anyone for Austin back at TM?

[tiger76]

The bottom 2 are looking shot, Brighton only managed a draw again, 1 win in 15 for them now. Yes I'd class that as a decent weekend for us, plus we have 2 games in hand over that trio.

[FCBurnley]

Anyone for Austin back at TM?

Haha.

[Vegas Claret]

Anyone for Austin back at TM?

We don't need any prog sellers at the moment, ground is closed

[jollyjack]

Haha.

Worth a try!

[Bordeauxclaret]

Handshakes from managers at end of Stoke v Bournemouth game.
Didn’t know that was still a thing.

[The Enclosure]

That Tierney is some player

[tim_noone]

Could be 8 or 9.....

Kiss of death....

[Duffer_]

So easy for The Arse that Maitland-Niles is playing in his PJ bottoms.

[conyoviejo]

Good results all round for us then.

[Tall Paul]

Remember when people thought WBA appointing BFS would give them a decent chance of avoiding relegation?

[Rileybobs]

Far too early to write WBA off.

[DomBFC1882]

Remember when people thought WBA appointing BFS would give them a decent chance of avoiding relegation?

They have recently drawn at man city and Liverpool tbf although they were terrible tonight

[Tall Paul]

Far too early to write WBA off.

Not really, their chances of staying up are pretty small, like less than 15%.

[tiger76]

Far too early to write WBA off.

I do agree it's too early to write them off, but we're 8 points ahead of them and also have 2 games in hand, I'd much rather be in our place then in theirs's, and these heavy defeats can't be helping their confidence in the least, or their GD which is easily the worst in the division.

[Jenny55]

Good old BFS, sets his teams up to be difficult to beat! Thankfully he will struggle to turn it around at Albion but will still trouser a couple of million pounds. Let’s hope we see the back of him after this.

[ClaretTony]

Anyone for Austin back at TM?

There were quite a few on this board that wanted us to sign him when he moved from Southampton to West Brom

[conyoviejo]

Good old BFS, sets his teams up to be difficult to beat! Thankfully he will struggle to turn it around at Albion but will still trouser a couple of million pounds. Let’s hope we see the back of him after this.

He's needed for the new Star Wars movie next year.

[Rileybobs]

Not really, their chances of staying up are pretty small, like less than 15%.

Sky bet have them at 11/4 to survive, which is 27%. But I don’t think that bookmakers odds are really a true reflection of their chance of survival.

If I had to put money on it now I’d back them to go down. But if they win their next two games the picture will be a whole lot different. 6 points is nowhere near an insurmountable gap and they have a manager with a proven track record.

Like I say, too early to write them off.

[Rileybobs]

I do agree it's too early to write them off, but we're 8 points ahead of them and also have 2 games in hand, I'd much rather be in our place then in theirs's, and these heavy defeats can't be helping their confidence in the least, or their GD which is easily the worst in the division.

Absolutely. But I’m not talking about them catching us, just staying up.

[Hibsclaret]

Every week we get some team or other written off or the second coming of Barcelona....first couple of weeks of the season Brighton were (supposedly) better than us playing eye catching football...blah blah blah.

As I have said on other threads...3 from about 12 teams can go down when the season is not half way through. That remains the case despite Sheff U being in trouble. West Brom were drawing with Liverpool the other week and we have seen many great escapes in the past with just a handful of games left. Leicester the year before they won the title looked doomed with about 6 games left and if I’m not mistaken they bridged the gap a similar size to the one WBA have now....

[Tall Paul]

Sky bet have them at 11/4 to survive, which is 27%. But I don’t think that bookmakers odds are really a true reflection of their chance of survival.

If I had to put money on it now I’d back them to go down. But if they win their next two games the picture will be a whole lot different. 6 points is nowhere near an insurmountable gap and they have a manager with a proven track record.

Like I say, too early to write them off.

Their next two games are away at Wolves then home to Man City, I'd say the chances of their winning both of them are even less than their chances of them staying up.

[Rileybobs]

Their next two games are away at Wolves then home to Man City, I'd say the chances of their winning both of them are even less than their chances of them staying up.

I was speaking figuratively. They could win 2 out of their next 4 games and they’ll be on the cusp of the bottom three. You only have to look at our recent run to see how quickly fortunes can change at the bottom when you string a few results together.

Like I say, as things stand I’d back them to go down. But there’s far too long left to completely write them off.

[Tall Paul]

I was speaking figuratively. They could win 2 out of their next 4 games and they’ll be on the cusp of the bottom three. You only have to look at our recent run to see how quickly fortunes can change at the bottom when you string a few results together.

Like I say, as things stand I’d back them to go down. But there’s far too long left to completely write them off.

I haven't written them off completely, they have a small chance of staying up, but that chance is no bigger than it was before they appointed BFS.

[Rileybobs]

I haven't written them off completely, they have a small chance of staying up, but that chance is no bigger than it was before they appointed BFS.

Fair enough, I agree with that - but you challenged my post saying it was too early to write them off. I imagine if BFS got his ‘circuit breaker’ and a few weeks to drill his team he’ll fancy his chances of grinding the results out though. Likewise, a couple of shrewd purchases this month could change their fortunes.

[Jakubclaret]

I haven't written them off completely, they have a small chance of staying up, but that chance is no bigger than it was before they appointed BFS.

Slightly smaller than Fulham & Brighton & us, if we win our games in hand we’d be level with palace & wolves & potentially go above Newcastle but they’ve got games in hand, it’s a funny old league where you win back to back & the odds will shift dramatically, it’s shaping up to be about 6/7 teams in danger discounting Sheffield united considered gone.

[TVC15]

Sky bet have them at 11/4 to survive, which is 27%. But I don’t think that bookmakers odds are really a true reflection of their chance of survival.

If I had to put money on it now I’d back them to go down. But if they win their next two games the picture will be a whole lot different. 6 points is nowhere near an insurmountable gap and they have a manager with a proven track record.

Like I say, too early to write them off.

7/2 for them to stay up
1/6 on if you want to back to them get relegated.

The odds are a reflection of what the bookies believe are West Brom’s chance of survival are right now (combined with how much money they had placed already on it happening)

Of course things can change quickly with good results - but the odds will change just as quick if this happens.

Current odds are not really about the gap being “only” 6 points - it’s the way they are getting beat, the fact they are a promoted side who were already one of the favourites, their relative lack of spending power, the state of their current squad etc.

If it was Arsenal who were 6 points from safety right now there’s no way in a million years they would be the same odds as West Brom currently are

Without Allardyce in charge and his track record of turning things round they may be even longer odds to survive. The bookies factor in every relevant factor in coming up with their view of the odds.

[Rileybobs]

7/2 for them to stay up
1/6 on if you want to back to them get relegated.

The odds are a reflection of what the bookies believe are West Brom’s chance of survival are right now (combined with how much money they had placed already on it happening)

Of course things can change quickly with good results - but the odds will change just as quick if this happens.

Current odds are not really about the gap being “only” 6 points - it’s the way they are getting beat, the fact they are a promoted side who were already one of the favourites, their relative lack of spending power, the state of their current squad etc.

If it was Arsenal who were 6 points from safety right now there’s no way in a million years they would be the same odds as West Brom currently are

Without Allardyce in charge and his track record of turning things round they may be even longer odds to survive. The bookies factor in every relevant factor in coming up with their view of the odds.

Yes, I'm aware of that. I'm just saying it's too early to write them off, and I'm surprised anyone can disagree with that statement to be honest.

[Tall Paul]

Slightly smaller than Fulham & Brighton & us, if we win our games in hand we’d be level with palace & wolves & potentially go above Newcastle but they’ve got games in hand, it’s a funny old league where you win back to back & the odds will shift dramatically, it’s shaping up to be about 6/7 teams in danger discounting Sheffield united considered gone.

Not slightly smaller, significantly smaller - certainly compared to Brighton's & our chances.

[TVC15]

Yes, I'm aware of that. I'm just saying it's too early to write them off, and I'm surprised anyone can disagree with that statement to be honest.

Who’s written them off ?
Are people disagreeing with you on that point ?
The bookies certainly haven’t.
When you can’t back em to stay up then the bookies have written them off.

[Jakubclaret]

Not slightly smaller, significantly smaller - certainly compared to Brighton's & our chances.

Current prices the bookies think West Brom & Fulham remember though that’s based on us having another potential 6pts on the board with the games in hand which aren’t guaranteed, failure to do anything with them games leaves Fulham needing 1 win to actually go above us because Fulham play us. Lots of ifs & buts & maybes, I said about 6/7 teams of all varying degrees of risk from wolves downwards.

[Tall Paul]

Current prices the bookies think West Brom & Fulham remember though that’s based on us having another potential 6pts on the board with the games in hand which aren’t guaranteed,

No it isn't.

[Rileybobs]

Who’s written them off ?
Are people disagreeing with you on that point ?

Yes. Hence the drawn out discussion about whether or not it’s too early to write WBA off, which I’m sure everyone agrees has run its course.

[Jakubclaret]

No it isn't.

I’m on 2 browsers I’m actually looking at the relegation odds now, palace were 10/1 about a hr ago now 8/1 the markets are dictated by the bets being placed online every minute, schullp & benteke went off injured today maybe that’s why it’s shortened.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegation

[tiger76]

I’m on 2 browsers I’m actually looking at the relegation odds now, palace were 10/1 about a hr ago now 8/1 the markets are dictated by the bets being placed online every minute, schullp & benteke went off injured today maybe that’s why it’s shortened.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegation

Palace will be fine, like us they win the important games, yes they'll suffer the odd hammering, but they always recover and dig results out when they need to. Can you really not see Roy managing to chalk up 4 wins in 21 games, and that's all they'll need along with the odd point here and there.

[Jakubclaret]

Palace will be fine, like us they win the important games, yes they'll suffer the odd hammering, but they always recover and dig results out when they need to. Can you really not see Roy managing to chalk up 4 wins in 21 games, and that's all they'll need along with the odd point here and there.

I know I agree, the post was more towards explaining how the betting markets fluctuate depending on the fluid factors & trying to help people understand who appeared to be struggling with gambling concept, palace I think will be fine overall they just about do enough each & every season with a clutch of other clubs who invariably end up midtable to lower.

[Tall Paul]

I know I agree, the post was more towards explaining how the betting markets fluctuate depending on the fluid factors & trying to help people understand who appeared to be struggling with gambling concept, palace I think will be fine overall they just about do enough each & every season with a clutch of other clubs who invariably end up midtable to lower.

There's only one person "struggling with gambling concept" and it isn't who you think it is.

[tiger76]

I know I agree, the post was more towards explaining how the betting markets fluctuate depending on the fluid factors & trying to help people understand who appeared to be struggling with gambling concept, palace I think will be fine overall they just about do enough each & every season with a clutch of other clubs who invariably end up midtable to lower.

I'm not a betting man so I don't follow the odds like some of you may, however I do know that it doesn't take a huge amount to sway the odds slightly, and as you rightly point out injuries to a couple of Palace players may cause that small shift.

I'm not a gambler because in my view it's a mug's game, but for those that are the best of luck, especially in this topsy-turvy season.