We are 11/4 to beat Aston Villa at home - I know they are having a decent season but they aren't that good are they?!

claret10 wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:10 am

We are 11/4 to beat Aston Villa at home - I know they are having a decent season but they aren't that good are they?!

Probably as much down to our profligacy in front of goal as anything. Only scored five goals in eight games at home in the league. Averaging a goal a game conceded at home. Villa's away form isn't too great away at present though. Lost two and drew one of their last three.
Stats don't account for everything though and we're on the back of two very good away wins. One would hope confidence is high and that can translate into chances taken.

claret10 wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:10 am

We are 11/4 to beat Aston Villa at home - I know they are having a decent season but they aren't that good are they?!

Yes, they are. Dont forget they've spent over £200m on their squad.

If we can improve our delivery to the forwards, I assume we'll start with Wood and Barnes we've a good chance of beating them. They're a good side and we'll have to be on top of our game.

We are overpriced in almost every game...you just need to back us in every game to pretty much guarantee a return every season...simples

Nonsense odds in every sense...last 4 home for us reads 2w,1d,1l and last 4 away for them reads 1w,1d,2l....irrespective of who you have played to a certain extent the odds are nonsense.

The game should be priced at around 6/4 home win and around 7/4 away win...they shouldn’t be favourites for the game tbh..

We should have beaten them last time and will beat them at home.

Back it

Hibsclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:13 am

We are overpriced in every game...you just need to back us in every game to pretty much guarantee a return every season...simples

Nonsense odds in every sense...last 4 home for us reads 2w,1d,1l and last 4 away for them reads 1w,1d,2l....irrespective of who you have played to a certain extent the odds are nonsense.

The game should be priced at around 6/4 home win and around 7/4 away win...they shouldn’t be favourites for the game tbh..

How much have you made following this strategy?

It does look like decent value for tomorrow's game to be fair. Don't think we should be anywhere near favourites though.

Looking for some value?

Draw Half-time / WBA Full-time (Currently trading around 60/1 on Betfair)

Crazy? Yes, but that's what happened last week at Anfield.

RalphCoatesComb wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:21 am

Looking for some value?

Draw Half-time / WBA Full-time (Currently trading around 60/1 on Betfair)

Crazy? Yes, but that's what happened last week at Anfield.

Good odds.
All this money we're saving, worth a tenner.

We need to handle Grealish better than last time at the Turf!

claret10 wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:10 am

We are 11/4 to beat Aston Villa at home - I know they are having a decent season but they aren't that good are they?!

Lump on
Great price
2-0 to the Clarets

Steve1956 wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:04 am

Lump on
Great price
2-0 to the Clarets

You been chatting to Tripps Steve

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:20 am

You been chatting to Tripps Steve

Doesn't everyone?

Tall Paul wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:49 am

How much have you made following this strategy?

It does look like decent value for tomorrow's game to be fair. Don't think we should be anywhere near favourites though.

I haven’t worked it out tbh but I am definitely in profit by backing us in the games we are overpriced the most. Did well on the top ten finish last season that’s for sure. I’ve taken 18/1 this year too tbh.

As for being anywhere near favourites it sounds like you agree with the bookies odds then...I think it is a very even game and the odds should reflect that. How many points did we finish above them just last season, for example. Whilst accepting they have improved, our form is better than theirs over the last 12 games too. There definitely is an argument for us to be favourites in a home game

Buxtonclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:40 am

Good odds.
All this money we're saving, worth a tenner.

They beat Liverpool by a five goal margin Burnley only managed one, so obviously they are favourites

Definitely worth a bet. Bet365 currently has 14/5 which is even (slightly) better than the 11/4. I'll have a bet at that, though the draw is 5/2 is also attractive.

Hibsclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:24 am

I haven’t worked it out tbh but I am definitely in profit by backing us in the games we are overpriced the most. Did well on the top ten finish last season that’s for sure. I’ve taken 18/1 this year too tbh.

As for being anywhere near favourites it sounds like you agree with the bookies odds then...I think it is a very even game and the odds should reflect that. How many points did we finish above them just last season, for example. Whilst accepting they have improved, our form is better than theirs over the last 12 games too. There definitely is an argument for us to be favourites in a home game

I thought you said every game, not just the ones we are overpriced the most.

I don't quite agree with the bookies, as I said it looks like decent value this one, will probably stick a few quid on. I'd say we should be closer to 2/1 with Villa around 6/4.

I said you just need to back every game not that I did do...

Not taken specifically we may not be overpriced against Sheff U for example but we are generally overpriced, meaning most matches. I bet if you backed us in every game you would more than break even, certainly backed not to lose if taken over the last 3 seasons...

There is even better value in the season end markets where we are always overpriced for a top half finish or not to be relegated. You can currently get a good price on us to finish above Palace, for example, at 6/4. Nice on a season ending acca...

LeadBelly wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:22 am

Definitely worth a bet. Bet365 currently has 14/5 which is even (slightly) better than the 11/4. I'll have a bet at that, though the draw is 5/2 is also attractive.

Back the double chance, Burnley win or draw @ 5/6 on sky bet, good price at home.

Hibsclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:19 pm

I said you just need to back every game not that I did do...

Not taken specifically we may not be overpriced against Sheff U for example but we are generally overpriced, meaning most matches. I bet if you backed us in every game you would more than break even, certainly backed not to lose if taken over the last 3 seasons...

I might keep track of it for the rest of the season, would prove quite interesting.

I'm sure there's somewhere you can find historical odds for games, but can't seem to find it with Google.

The odds against Man City will be very interesting tbh because Man City will be some ridiculous odds on figure. You have to look at that and think yes we will likely lose but if you look at the home league games against them over the previous seasons in the league the sequence is as follows:

1 - 0
1 - 2
1 - 1
0 - 1
1 - 4

The best bet here will likely be Burnley +2 on the handicap. There is an argument that Pep wasn’t in charge for the first game of the sequence and that the cup games and away games have been omitted but when you add in our lack of goals conceded in recent games to the fact that they may be missing De Bruyne and Aguero, I think there will be good odds around the handicap market (unless they factor in too much around the Liverpool win).

I accept they usually stuff us but predominantly at the Etihad so will be interesting to see tbh. They were also brilliant tonight...but West Brom were horrendous

Tall Paul wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:13 pm

I might keep track of it for the rest of the season, would prove quite interesting.

I'm sure there's somewhere you can find historical odds for games, but can't seem to find it with Google.

Definitely 16/1 to win at Anfield last week (you could even gets 4s with a goal start)

We were 33/1 when we won at Stamford Bridge a couple of years ago. Bets for almost a whole season covered by the first win. Bookies continually overpriced us because we're unfashionable, small town, punching above our weight but we've proven over a sustained period that we can compete at this level. Personally I'm not complaining.

So Chelsea, Liverpool and Man U away has paid for at least 2 full seasons for starters

what_no_pies wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:18 am

We were 33/1 when we won at Stamford Bridge a couple of years ago.

That doesn't seem right, best odds available for Sheff Utd to win at the Etihad this weekend are 25/1 and surely there's a bigger gap in quality there than there was for us at Chelsea.

Tall Paul wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:25 pm

That doesn't seem right, best odds available for Sheff Utd to win at the Etihad this weekend are 25/1 and surely there's a bigger gap in quality there than there was for us at Chelsea.

It is accurate...it was first game of the season away to the champions so we were even more overpriced than normal

Hibsclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:56 pm

It is accurate...it was first game of the season away to the champions so we were even more overpriced than normal

These links suggest not:

https://news.paddypower.com/football/20 ... ster-city/

https://www.williamhillplc.com/newsmedi ... -goalfest/

And according to the Guardian we were 16/1 to win that game. I know they'll have used one particular bookie's odds, but I doubt any other would have been offering double.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ch-preview

It doesn’t take much to move the odds between 16/1 and 33/1. Not really any need to make out someone is telling porkys when they would have got that price. In the day or two before the game the odds could change as much as that easily in what is a 3 horse race with a long odds on favourite

It does take a lot to move odds that much, especially on a football match. I'm not making out that they're telling porkies, I just think they're probably mistaken or it was some sort of special offer for new customers or something.

They’re not mistaken..I got something similar and was at the match I remember it clearly. If you think it does take a lot you clearly don’t understand odds on a 3 horse race.

The number of people with a home win on their accas for that game, the first of the season would have meant the bookies able to offer almost any price on a Burnley win. It is the perfect result for the bookies and they could probably have offered even bigger odds and guarantee a profit.

Group betting Burnley win 1-0,2-0 or 2-1 is 4-1
You'd think a win would be one of those 3 scorlines

This aged well

Cheers Tripps

Steve1956 wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:14 pm

Cheers Tripps

Wonder what price Burnley was at half time to win. ?

conyoviejo wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:19 pm

Wonder what price Burnley was at half time to win. ?

16-1.

I got 18/5 just before kick off.

Running profit 3.6 points.