Verbruggen Errors

[alwaysaclaret]

Spot on.

Chasing data/chasing an algorithm is daft.

It should inform decisions no doubt but can easily have yourself tied in knots.

Football is a simple game as you say - its complex in terms of it being a dynamic game with no real gain line.

I always make the reference to ‘moneyball’ and the Oakland As that really pioneered the data first approach to try and win a World Series as an under dog, bu prioritising stats like RBI (runs batted in) and OBP (on base percentage) to try and get unfancied players that could in theory win games…

They did very well - still didn’t win a World Series and baseball is a hell of a lot ‘simpler’ than football. One/two real phases of the game (pitch, then fielding the ball), the batter hits the ball at best 1/3 sort of times and EVEN THEN it didn’t get them over the line.

Football in comparison is very dynamic, and has a lot more nuance that you can’t really justify with some algorithm, imo.

Still is a ‘simple game’ - get a playstyle that
maximises the strengths of the players that you currently have and minimises their weaknesses

whilst trying to

target perceived weaknesses of the opposition

Case in point right now for us - we can’t play out after inviting a press with the personal that we continue to play, yet we keep trying it and it keeps backfiring in our face AND we also cannot defend set pieces with the ball in the 6 yard box…

So what have managers done against us? Pressed us high, and stuck the ball in the 6 yard box.

Really not rocket science is it? Yet our manager and his ginormous back room team keep making the same mistake week in and week out, whilst being paid an absolute fortune in the process.

I just don’t get it.

Absolutely spot on CC, and only 1 outcome imo, relegation. We're so easy and predictable to play against.

[Nori1958]

That is exactly how we’ve signed players for this season.

We are solely data driven on recruitment. 0 first team scouts

Iam sure I saw Kompany, and others sat at games watching players we eventually signed, plus those he already knew about from Belgium..... So I doubt we are solely driven by data

[NewClaret]

Hell fire - how bad is this Verbruggen?

As for credit needing to go to Kompany for persisting with Trafford - you can’t be serious. That’s been his biggest error since taking the reins.

From what I’ve seen, Trafford is stronger of the two. A better shot stopper and better with his feet now (that area is much-improved but still a way of Muric imo).

Like I say, in summer, I’d have much preferred Verbruggen and I think he will be suffering from being in/out of the team compared to Trafford but will also be benefiting from having a stronger team in front of him.

It’s impossible to know whether VK persisting with Trafford has been a mistake at all since we will never know how Muric would’ve performed in equivalent games. I’d have liked him to start the season and would still pick him now, but I think the answer is that Trafford has made more top drawer saves than point-losing errors. And usually a whole barrel of errors have been made in the build up to goals that could’ve prevented him ever being in a position to make the error as the last line of defence.

[StayingDown4Ever]

All this magic data available and we are still absolute pony.

If the data is as reliable/ useful as people claim then those employed to analyse it and make it work to our advantage are clearly failing in their roles.

It must show somehow that we can’t play out from the back so why do we keep trying it over and over? Embarrassing.

[alwaysaclaret]

That is exactly how we’ve signed players for this season.

We are solely data driven on recruitment. 0 first team scouts

Exactly CC, which brings me to re-iterate how many times did we hear dyche talk about overthinking thing's in he's interviews, I suspect this is exactly the sort of subject /line he was going down.

[CoolClaret]

Iam sure I saw Kompany, and others sat at games watching players we eventually signed, plus those he already knew about from Belgium..... So I doubt we are solely driven by data

Some players I’ll perhaps accept - the ones that VK has coached/coached against.

Still, we do have 0 first team scouts, which I find insane.

I refer you to an episode of ’From The Beehole End’ with Jamie Hoyland and the segment of him scouting Jarred Branthwaite. The ‘data analysts’ weren’t having him, yet Hoyland had seen him hold his own as a 17 yr old against powerful, Wiley old vet whilst playing for Carlisle and managed to get him signed.

Amdouni is a player that would have been signed purely on data - a heck of a lot to punt on for a player that’s flattered to deceive for me - especially for the fee.

Similarly, Odobert and Koleosho will have which look to be good signings, though Odobert being at Troyes/City group perhaps that other bloke in recruitment we have now from City will have known of his profile.

[Jamesy]

I initially thought Trafford was our second choice but it does make me wonder if he was actually first choice.

Trafford definitely looks the better acquisition.
, although it can’t be easy on Verbruggen being chopped and changed all the time. Whilst I was and still am Muric in, some credit needs to go to Kompany here for persisting with him and giving him the time he needs to develop.

Credit to Kompany for persisting with him and giving him time he needs to develop? In the toughest league in the world? Great!
Meanwhile let’s just sleepwalk back to the Championship.

[CoolClaret]

Exactly CC, which brings me to re-iterate how many times did we hear dyche talk about overthinking thing's in he's interviews, I suspect this is exactly the sort of subject /line he was going down.

Management is mostly mental imo - why he’s done such a good job with Everton that were a basket case.

Anyone can have the best players hand picked for one system and get a tune out of them.

VK likes to talk about hard work and all that but has a lot to learn about management for me.

Having wholesale changes to start the season after finding a winning XI and expecting it to be the same was naive at best.

[CoolClaret]

Credit to Kompany for persisting with him and giving him time he needs to develop? In the toughest league in the world? Great!
Meanwhile let’s just sleepwalk back to the Championship.

I’d accept this if tickets/travel home and away was subsidised off the club.

Expecting us to pay top prices watching players that were signed for decent fees and are nowhere near ready for the Prem is obscene, imo.

[alwaysaclaret]

Management is mostly mental imo - why he’s done such a good job with Everton that were a basket case.

Anyone can have the best players hand picked for one system and get a tune out of them.

VK likes to talk about hard work and all that but has a lot to learn about management for me.

Having wholesale changes to start the season after finding a winning XI and expecting it to be the same was naive at best.

Vk looks way out of he's depth in this league for me, but some of which could be remedied if he just sacked he's stubborn naivety off.

As you say he'd found a winning formula last season with player's that suited the formula and knew each other, yes we needed signings but it was key to keep the player's that were clearly enjoying their time here and were progressing together, why on earth he's tampered with that I'm baffled. This season would never have been easy, but it could have been a damn sight easier imo.

[boatshed bill]

It does because we all know who has really made the mistakes

Then why take any notice of the stats presented? Why even read them?

[Nori1958]

People love stats when it supports their argument, not so much if it goes the other way. We were bombarded with stats showing Murics long passing ability by those now dismissing stats

[alwaysaclaret]

Then why take any notice of the stats presented? Why even read them?

Exactly, you said it bb, Why even read them.

[alwaysaclaret]

People love stats when it supports their argument, not so much if it goes the other way. We were bombarded with stats showing Murics long passing ability by those now dismissing stats

Don't need stats for that, just need to watch him, see it with your eyes.

[CoolClaret]

People love stats when it supports their argument, not so much if it goes the other way. We were bombarded with stats showing Murics long passing ability by those now dismissing stats

Completely different - that was used to verify that his distribution is indeed better - confirming the eye test.

Not only that but it's better by a considerable % in medium/long ranges

[Nori1958]

Completely different - that was used to verify that his distribution is indeed better - confirming the eye test.

Not only that but it's better by a considerable % in medium/long ranges

So that stats ok?
But the one quoted about Trafford is wrong?

[boatshed bill]

Completely different - that was used to verify that his distribution is indeed better - confirming the eye test.

Not only that but it's better by a considerable % in medium/long ranges

What we actually know beyond doubt is that Muric's distribution in the Championship was better than Trafford's is in the PL.
Any more than that would be conjecture.

[CoolClaret]

So that stats ok?
But the one quoted about Trafford is wrong?

How do I put this -

A completed pass is definitive - there’s no subjectivity to it whatsoever

An ‘error leading to a goal’ clearly isn’t so straight forward.

- not to mention you can’t make many errors if you don’t try and do anything.

Any keeper worth their salt claims that ball.

[CoolClaret]

What we actually know beyond doubt is that Muric's distribution in the Championship was better than Trafford's is in the PL.
Any more than that would be conjecture.

And better than his was in League One and in the games we’ve seen this season - though this has been done to death and some are still backing VKs decisions to the hilt.

[Nori1958]

How do I put this -

A completed pass is definitive - there’s no subjectivity to it whatsoever

An ‘error leading to a goal’ clearly isn’t so straight forward.

- not to mention you can’t make many errors if you don’t try and do anything.

Any keeper worth their salt claims that ball.

A goalkeeper kicks it long to his players head... Completed pass? But players heads it out of play, or to opposing player. Is that definitive enough?

[boatshed bill]

And better than his was in League One and in the games we’ve seen this season - though this has been done to death and some are still backing VKs decisions to the hilt.

I never saw JT in L1, so wouldn't know.

[CoolClaret]

A goalkeeper kicks it long to his players head... Completed pass? But players heads it out of play, or to opposing player. Is that definitive enough?

Erm yeah?

Especially when the % difference is significant - ie more than a few percent

Data should backup the eye test, imo.

See this all the time - the NFL draft is a prime example.

The NFL combine roles around every year (athletic tests etc for players coming out of college) and the Yanks fixate on a few freaks that put up daft physical numbers in the athletic tests and every year without fail some player that doesn't overtly impress in the 40 yard dash or vertical jump ends up going under the radar and making everyone look stupid.

& that is a sport that is data obsessed.

[StayingDown4Ever]

Arsenal away
Bournemouth away
Everton home

All embarrassing goalkeeping for goals in the above games.

We should have known we’d been completely mugged off with him when he got humiliated in that friendly against Betis when he got beat by a player who shot from his own half.

[CoolClaret]

Arsenal away
Bournemouth away
Everton home

All embarrassing goalkeeping for goals in the above games.

We should have known we’d been completely mugged off with him when he got humiliated in that friendly against Betis when he got beat by a player who shot from his own half.

Flapped at one away at Genk pre season as well. Sign of things to come.

Scandalous that he started the season and is continuing to play.

[StayingDown4Ever]

Flapped at one away at Genk pre season as well. Sign of things to come.

Scandalous that he started the season and is continuing to play.

Exactly. The friendlies even showed he wasn’t up to this level and we still started with him and even more bizarrely still persist on doing so.

[Ric_C]

Not wanting to de-rail the thread, but watching us this season is like watching us when we played in the cups last season. We were just not the same team without Muric. Apart from the odd mistake (Blackpool) he was imperious with his feet and this confidence spread across the defence and the team.

Then we played BPF against city and it fell apart. I know this league is a massive step up, but I think our defence would breathe a sigh of relief if Muric was in goal.

[Rileybobs]

I wonder what the topic of conversation will be over CoolClaret’s Christmas turkey this year.

[CoolClaret]

I wonder what the topic of conversation will be over CoolClaret’s Christmas turkey this year.

Depends on tomorrow's result I'd say

[Rileybobs]

Depends on tomorrow's result I'd say

I doubt that very much

[boatshed bill]

Not wanting to de-rail the thread, but watching us this season is like watching us when we played in the cups last season. We were just not the same team without Muric. Apart from the odd mistake (Blackpool) he was imperious with his feet and this confidence spread across the defence and the team.

Then we played BPF against city and it fell apart. I know this league is a massive step up, but I think our defence would breathe a sigh of relief if Muric was in goal.

Very few teams really put us under pressure last season. long through balls made Muric's sweeping look brilliant and we all loved it.
Not many PL teams play like that.

[Taffy on the wing]

The Premier League official site, stats page.

By the way, for balance, Trafford has conceded about 3-4 more than his expected goals conceded, plus his distribution is more laboured than Muric, so I’m not saying he has been superb, just stating facts.

It was meant to be a lighthearted post......nevertheless, expected goals or direct errors aside, Trafford's farting around has led to many goals conceded & the demoralizing of our defenders & fans (the ones who aren't blind).
He may come good one day....but he's been a disaster so far.

[alwaysaclaret]

Very few teams really put us under pressure last season. long through balls made Muric's sweeping look brilliant and we all loved it.
Not many PL teams play like that.

Simple fact is Muric for at least 2/3rds of last season was brilliant, dodgy for the first 1/3rd but he's progression and improvement from then on was brilliant, surely given the present predicament of almost half the season gone and most clarets wondering where the next point is coming from it maybe an idea to give a more experienced, stronger more assertive goalkeeper a go.

Reason's, Muric
1, Played a full season in a championship winning team
2, full International goalkeeper
Trafford
1, Highest level, league one, play off place.
2, u21 international goalkeeper

[boatshed bill]

Simple fact is Muric for at least 2/3rds of last season was brilliant, dodgy for the first 1/3rd but he's progression and improvement from then on was brilliant, surely given the present predicament of almost half the season gone and most clarets wondering where the next point is coming from it maybe an idea to give a more experienced, stronger more assertive goalkeeper a go.

Reason's, Muric
1, Played a full season in a championship winning team
2, full International goalkeeper
Trafford
1, Highest level, league one, play off place.
2, u21 international goalkeeper

Full international, yes, but on that basis would you prefer San Marino's, or Faroe Islands' keeper to Trafford?

[bumba]

Then why take any notice of the stats presented? Why even read them?

Stats can be viewed in all sorts of ways, some good some bad but not all give you accurate information.
Wolves away O'Shea completes a pass to Berge who loses the ball and Wolves score, O'Shea has one completed stat pass, Berge has one mistake leading to a goal stat.....anybody who has played football knows O'Shea made the mistake in that scenario.

Even with claret tinted specs on it really isn't difficult to understand a keeper the club claim is 6 foot 6 should be claiming any corner that lands just yards away from his goal line and should not be being out jumped by a midfielder shorted than him that cannot use his hands

[pushpinpussy]

There are some really sad depressing people on this message board these days. i understand that a lot of you are sad old men with boring lives and have nothing better to do but you really need to take a long hard look at yourselves. It is truly embarrassing.

[StayingDown4Ever]

Full international, yes, but on that basis would you prefer San Marino's, or Faroe Islands' keeper to Trafford?

Probably!

[CoolClaret]

There are some really sad depressing people on this message board these days. i understand that a lot of you are sad old men with boring lives and have nothing better to do but you really need to take a long hard look at yourselves. It is truly embarrassing.

What does that make you reading it then? Projection much?

[Jamesy]

There are some really sad depressing people on this message board these days. i understand that a lot of you are sad old men with boring lives and have nothing better to do but you really need to take a long hard look at yourselves. It is truly embarrassing.

What are you on about? You haven’t just posted this by accident have you? Was it meant for the older singles site?

[forzagranata]

It all depends what data you look at.

Data which determines a keeper dropping a ball to be a error will tell you 'no errors'.

Data which says a goalkeeper should deal with a cross in his six yard box - will give you different results.

[Taffy on the wing]

I think they are using analytic equipment, Pixellot, or similar. Cameras following each player.

It's Elmer Fudd.....as already discussed.

[Benson]

It's Elmer Fudd.....as already discussed.

It wasn’t funny the first time.

[Darthlaw]

What’s funny is Elmer Fudd’s eyesight was just fine. I guess Taffy meant Mr Magoo.

New thread incoming Fudd or Magoo?

[Rileybobs]

Simple fact is Muric for at least 2/3rds of last season was brilliant, dodgy for the first 1/3rd but he's progression and improvement from then on was brilliant, surely given the present predicament of almost half the season gone and most clarets wondering where the next point is coming from it maybe an idea to give a more experienced, stronger more assertive goalkeeper a go.

Reason's, Muric
1, Played a full season in a championship winning team
2, full International goalkeeper
Trafford
1, Highest level, league one, play off place.
2, u21 international goalkeeper

Not really correct as Trafford has played at a higher level than Muric.

[Goliath]

Not really correct as Trafford has played at a higher level than Muric.

Muric has played international football and cup games for City against Premier League teams as well as winning an award for best goalkeeper in the season when he was in Turkey if i remember rightly. So its a very typically narrow minded English view to say Trafford has played at a higher level because hes played for 4 or 5 months in a rank bad Premier league team.

[Rileybobs]

Muric has played international football and cup games for City against Premier League teams as well as winning an award for best goalkeeper in the season when he was in Turkey if i remember rightly. So its a very typically narrow minded English view to say Trafford has played at a higher level because hes played for 4 or 5 months in a rank bad Premier league team.

It’s not narrow minded to suggest that the English Premier League is a higher level than the Turkish league.

[CoolClaret]

It’s not narrow minded to suggest that the English Premier League is a higher level than the Turkish league.

It isn’t no. However I’d say the standard of the Turkish league has improved somewhat recently.

I reckon the top 5 teams are much better than we are.

[Goliath]

It’s not narrow minded to suggest that the English Premier League is a higher level than the Turkish league.

Ok, I dont think I ever said it wasn't. Youve decided to select a few words from my post and ignore the wider context.
By your logic Peacock-Farrell should be ahead of Muric as well.

[Rileybobs]

Ok, I dont think I ever said it wasn't. Youve decided to select a few words from my post and ignore the wider context.
By your logic Peacock-Farrell should be ahead of Muric as well.

I haven’t said one keeper should be above the other based on the level they’ve played at. I just responded to a poster who suggested that Muric should play as he’s played in the Championship whereas the highest level Trafford has played is league one. I was simply pointing out that this is incorrect because Trafford has played in the Premier League, and Muric hasn’t.

[Goliath]

I haven’t said one keeper should be above the other based on the level they’ve played at. I just responded to a poster who suggested that Muric should play as he’s played in the Championship whereas the highest level Trafford has played is league one. I was simply pointing out that this is incorrect because Trafford has played in the Premier League, and Muric hasn’t.

Fair enough, ive jumped to a conclusion there without fully reading the thread, apologies!

[Rileybobs]

Fair enough, ive jumped to a conclusion there without fully reading the thread, apologies!

No sweat.