More young signings

[aggi]

Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere, I didn't notice it but I didn't really venture into the massive transfer thread.

So this window we've signed two 21 year olds and a 23 year old.

Although I'm not against a decent number of young players I'm not convinced it's what we needed this window. I'd have thought a bit of nous, a bit of experience in the team would really have helped, particularly in our back line.

[Goobs]

You'll never win anything with kids....

[Anonymous Claret]

You'll never win anything with kids....

When Hanson said this in 1995 Man Utd still had a strong core of very experienced players including Schmeichel, Irwin, Bruce, Pallister, Keane and Cantona.

[Rowls]

When Hanson said this in 1995 Man Utd still had a strong core of very experienced players including Schmeichel, Irwin, Bruce, Pallister, Keane and Cantona.

Keane wasn't truly a regular starter until the 95-96 season and Cantona had hung up his boots in the summer.

Edit - Cantona hadnt hung up his boots, sorry. But he was banned until October that year.

[burnley007]

Brighton have kids, they also signed the most experienced player in the league in Milner!

[Bordeauxclaret]

Cantana played that season and the next.
Keane played more games in 93/94 for United than he did in 95/96.

[NewClaret]

Brighton have kids, they also signed the most experienced player in the league in Milner!

Weren’t we in for him? I imagine the £60k per week he’s earning at Brighton was a factor though.

[Firthy]

I think we will be relegated this season. I'm just hoping we can keep hold of players like Koleosho, Odobert, (Trafford or Muric). Bring on players like Ramsey, Tresor and Messengo and bring in a LB, striker and couple of ball winning midfielders (like Barton) and we have another season like last year and bounce straight back.

We then might stand a chance of staying in the Premier League with a young more experienced settled squad.

[SalisburyClaret]

The algorithms say you can make more money by buying young - so that’s what we do.

[randomclaret2]

The algorithms say you can make more money by buying young - so that’s what we do.

Spot on...the club has decided this is the way we are going...relegation or no relegation

[Foshiznik]

It's also cheaper to buy a young player than it is an established one at this level (transfer fee and wages).

For what it's worth, Esteve is one of the best young left footed centre backs on Football Manager...

[Woodleyclaret]

The future starts tomorrow with our 3 points v Fulham as our teams starts to gell.We are up against it, needing to win 8 games but its not impossible and I for one think we will survive UTC

[Claret Toni]

You'll never win anything with kids....

For what it's worth those United kids were exceptional - Neville Brothers, Scholes, Beckham, Butt - and that's just the one's I can remember who all won loads of England caps, and then there was Giggs who played for Wales (but only when Sir Alex let him).

I'd venture an opinion that we'll never see a bunch of kids like that come through together, and even with Claret glasses, those at the Turf are nowhere near.

[aggi]

You'll never win anything with kids....

That's the perfect illustration. Their main back line that season was Schmeichel, Neville, Bruce, Pallister and Irwin.

An experienced, solid foundation which lets you blood the young players with a lower risk.

The algorithms say you can make more money by buying young - so that’s what we do.

That's a bit simplistic though. If the owners want to maximise return on their investment the club needs to be in the Premier League.

[Goody1975]

You would hope we don't continue with the massive turnover of players each summer.

If we can keep the core of this team together next season (no matter what division we are in), you'd assume the players will be fully acclimatised to the English game, have settled to the lifestyle and more importantly matured both physically and through the experience of playing games.

The big worry is that we go through another window and chopping and changing the squad.

Just having the majority of the team together for a full pre season is vital.

[ClaretLoup]

If you look at the City team the other night they had three ‘youngsters’ in the team Lewis, Foden and the £77 million Gvardiol. Conversely we had three experienced players Brownhill, Berge and JBG.

If you look at all the other successful clubs in the league they will pretty much be the same, even clubs that need to produce players to sell like Brighton and Brentford.

I just don’t understand how the ‘project’ is ever going to work. It’s like that sign in the pub, “ Free beer tomorrow “

[KRBFC]

The problem with getting experienced players is they’ll be poor ones, ones not wanted at other PL clubs. You also hit a ceiling with them. Very limiting.

If we can keep this side together for the next 3-4 years, we could do really well on the field.

I fully buy into the project of buying young and hoping they develop for what the team can potentially become, I don’t give a monkeys to make the owners money.

Hopefully we now see a more settled team moving forward now we’ve cleared out some deadwood like Roberts.

[Darthlaw]

If you look at the City team the other night they had three ‘youngsters’ in the team Lewis, Foden and the £77 million Gvardiol. Conversely we had three experienced players Brownhill, Berge and JBG.

I don't think Man City are the ones to look towards when it comes to developing players. They're more world class finished article ready for the first team players, rather than someone to bring on over time. You don't spend as much as chequebook Pep does by focusing on developing prospects.

[KRBFC]

If you look at the City team the other night they had three ‘youngsters’ in the team Lewis, Foden and the £77 million Gvardiol. Conversely we had three experienced players Brownhill, Berge and JBG.

If you look at all the other successful clubs in the league they will pretty much be the same, even clubs that need to produce players to sell like Brighton and Brentford.

I just don’t understand how the ‘project’ is ever going to work. It’s like that sign in the pub, “ Free beer tomorrow “

Age does not mean experience. Experience is what you have experienced. Phil Foden is more experienced at PL level than Brownhill despite the big age gap.

Experience is gained from experiencing things not just by becoming older, I believe the experience of relegation will be beneficial in the long run to this team. The pain will push those further to avoid relegation in the future.

[ClaretLoup]

KR do you think Foden would have developed & progressed so rapidly playing in a team like Burnley full of rookies or alongside a group of senior players?

Also if you look at Foden’s playing record he has made over 50 appearances as a sub. which suggests he was carefully integrated into the team.

Of course I am mindful in the massive disparity in resources between the two clubs but it’s the principle we are talking about here of how to achieve success in progressing inexperienced players.

[ClaretLoup]

I don't think Man City are the ones to look towards when it comes to developing players. They're more world class finished article ready for the first team players, rather than someone to bring on over time. You don't spend as much as chequebook Pep does by focusing on developing prospects.

Darth, I just picked on the City game as it was the most recent fixture. Brentford are a team that nurtures young talent and they signed Ben Mee.

I just don’t see how this model is sustainable. You bring in a load of youngsters and then sell off the best ones and then bring some more in. Moreover I can’t see which players that we brought in last season have actually progressed apart from Foster.

[agreenwood]

Whilst the club would never admit this, I’m not sure there’ll be much belief that we can avoid relegation this season and bringing in experienced/low risk/PL ready players who can improve us would be expensive. There may have been very few options that met that criteria.

To get to 32 points we’d need to win 10 of our final 16 games. Even that might not be enough. If we’d signed Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier and Jordan Henderson to fill the clear gaps in our squad, we’d still be highly unlikely to win 10-12 out of our final 16.

I suspect Fofana & Assignon have been brought in to fill gaps/allow others to go out on loan to get some football and Esteve is an investment for the future.

Not a particularly appealing situation to be in, but for me that’s the reality.

[boatshed bill]

When Broja, for example, gets valued at about £50million it's not difficult to see why we are buying young, cheaper options and trying to develop them.

[agreenwood]

Whilst the club would never admit this, I’m not sure there’ll be much belief that we can avoid relegation this season and bringing in experienced/low risk/PL ready players who can improve us would be expensive. There may have been very few options that met that criteria.

To get to 32 points we’d need to win 10 of our final 16 games. Even that might not be enough. If we’d signed Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier and Jordan Henderson to fill the clear gaps in our squad, we’d still be highly unlikely to win 10-12 out of our final 16.

I suspect Fofana & Assignon have been brought in to fill gaps/allow others to go out on loan to get some football and Esteve is an investment for the future.

Not a particularly appealing situation to be in, but for me that’s the reality.

To add to this, the average to survive since the PL began sits somewhere between 35-36 points. Even if the bar is lower this season, it leaves us requiring a virtually insurmountable turnaround that was always going to be beyond anything we could fix in January.

It’s all about next season now. Hopefully lessons have been learned if we do make it back in the next few years.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Whilst the club would never admit this, I’m not sure there’ll be much belief that we can avoid relegation this season and bringing in experienced/low risk/PL ready players who can improve us would be expensive. There may have been very few options that met that criteria.

To get to 32 points we’d need to win 10 of our final 16 games. Even that might not be enough. If we’d signed Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier and Jordan Henderson to fill the clear gaps in our squad, we’d still be highly unlikely to win 10-12 out of our final 16.

I suspect Fofana & Assignon have been brought in to fill gaps/allow others to go out on loan to get some football and Esteve is an investment for the future.

Not a particularly appealing situation to be in, but for me that’s the reality.

Just to give your confidence a boost 7 wins out of the last 16 would give us 33 point., rather than having to win 10

[agreenwood]

Just to give your confidence a boost 7 wins out of the last 16 would give us 33 point., rather than having to win 10

Correct. Shocking maths from me.

That’ll teach me for posting whilst stood in a queue

General point still stand though. Hell of a turnaround in form required.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Correct. Shocking maths from me.

That’ll teach me for posting whilst stood in a queue

General point still stand though. Hell of a turnaround in form required.

Agree with all of what you said, although we are 3 wins nearer to staying up than we were half hour ago

[Goody1975]

Correct. Shocking maths from me.

That’ll teach me for posting whilst stood in a queue

General point still stand though. Hell of a turnaround in form required.

Tomorrow is a must win, you'd then assume the following two fixtures will end with defeats.

That leaves us needing at least six wins from the final thirteen games.

It's the hope, blind faith and delusion that kills us.

[agreenwood]

Agree with all of what you said, although we are 3 wins nearer to staying up than we were half hour ago

Genuinely don’t know how I made the error.

Anyway, I just think there’ll be an awareness within the club of what we’re now facing, both in terms of the likelihood of us surviving and our ability to attract decent PL players given our predicament.

With Liverpool and Arsenal to come in the next three games, that 7-8 wins may soon be required from only 14 games.

If we survived from here I assume it’d be one of the greatest escapes in PL history.

[dandeclaret]

If there's not an awareness, they could always look at the betting markets. Burnley are median price 1/6 to be relegated... or there is around an 86% likelihood of relegation happening.

[agreenwood]

If there's not an awareness, they could always look at the betting markets. Burnley are median price 1/6 to be relegated... or there is around an 86% likelihood of relegation happening.

Yep and i wonder if that awareness tempered any thought of trying to strengthen the squad significantly this January - if the money was even there.

[hetheclaret]

Whilst the club would never admit this, I’m not sure there’ll be much belief that we can avoid relegation this season and bringing in experienced/low risk/PL ready players who can improve us would be expensive. There may have been very few options that met that criteria.

To get to 32 points we’d need to win 10 of our final 16 games. Even that might not be enough. If we’d signed Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier and Jordan Henderson to fill the clear gaps in our squad, we’d still be highly unlikely to win 10-12 out of our final 16.

I suspect Fofana & Assignon have been brought in to fill gaps/allow others to go out on loan to get some football and Esteve is an investment for the future.

Not a particularly appealing situation to be in, but for me that’s the reality.

I agree - I think the club has been operating on a base case we will get relegated for some time. While I obviously don’t want to get relegated, in theory this summer the squad will need barely any work and will be full of young, talented players many of whom will be superb in the championship.

As you say, the club will never admit it, but I think the long term plan factored in a relegation and while it is a risk - promotion is not a given - let’s say we’re back in the PL for the 25/26 season, will will have a settled squad with much more experience and some young players who have developed into premier league quality.

Fingers crossed that happens!

[Vegas Claret]

we all waned THB, he was 21 and untried in the PL
Tella was only 24
Maatsen 21

What we are doing now isn't anything new

[CrosspoolClarets]

The betting markets are a nonsense. They swing wildly over the season when sides win or draw. It is apparent that the odds earlier on in the season mean nothing. Then we have the points deductions complicating matters.

We are obviously now odds against. How odds against is impossible to say. We have to assume we will continue to be shafted by officials (Wilder claimed bias openly yesterday). So the 6 wins and 2 draws to get to 32 points seems unlikely.

But this young side has it in it to get those wins. We have 3 already, should have been 5 but for officials. We have the easier run at home to come (though being robbed by refs/ VAR against West Ham and Luton doesn’t help because they were easier games too). Feels unlikely, but possible.

[hetheclaret]

The betting markets are a nonsense. They swing wildly over the season when sides win or draw. It is apparent that the odds earlier on in the season mean nothing. Then we have the points deductions complicating matters.

We are obviously now odds against. How odds against is impossible to say. We have to assume we will continue to be shafted by officials (Wilder claimed bias openly yesterday). So the 6 wins and 2 draws to get to 32 points seems unlikely.

But this young side has it in it to get those wins. We have 3 already, should have been 5 but for officials. We have the easier run at home to come (though being robbed by refs/ VAR against West Ham and Luton doesn’t help because they were easier games too). Feels unlikely, but possible.

Odds reflect what bets have been placed. If I put £1 million on us to stay up today, the odds will change massively. Not because the chances of us staying up have changed, but because the bookmakers need to cover my bet in case it wins.

Odds reflect the betting patterns, not reality. Hence why the bookies always win.

[Winstonswhite]

I wonder if there’s ever been a club who have gone through a period of two managers and management, who are polar opposites in every way, in such a short period of time.

[gandhisflipflop]

Our target should be 8 wins and a couple of draws. It’s more than achievable

[bf2k]

When Broja, for example, gets valued at about £50million it's not difficult to see why we are buying young, cheaper options and trying to develop them.

You are spot on but there are a lot of fans out there who don't realise this. Burnley aren't ever going to go and buy a premier league ready player. They are too expensive in terms of transfer fees and salary plus will have very little resale value.

I wonder if fans back in the 60s ever questioned the type & age of players being brought in?

[CoolClaret]

we all waned THB, he was 21 and untried in the PL
Tella was only 24
Maatsen 21

What we are doing now isn't anything new

For me this was just trying to keep a team ethos and continuity to hit the PL running and ride that wave and slowly bed in new players.

That's what I think we got wrong more than anything and I hope it's something VK reflects on.

[CoolClaret]

When Broja, for example, gets valued at about £50million it's not difficult to see why we are buying young, cheaper options and trying to develop them.

People just mean a few more in the Berge mould, not a 22yr old Chelsea player

[spt_claret]

we all waned THB, he was 21 and untried in the PL
Tella was only 24
Maatsen 21

What we are doing now isn't anything new

I didn't want THB, think he was very overrated. He might go on to be a top player but he didn't impress me the way ANY of his peer CBs did last season, and look how they've struggled to step up. Genuinely think O'Shea's as good or better, just playing in a less settled team at a higher level.
Wasn't sure about Maatsen either- when we were linked with Quillindschy Hartman I immediately thought "yes please, him instead". Better defensively, physically bigger, barely any older, would've been cheaper.
I didn't know if Tella was the right option for the price wanted AT FIRST, but with how much we subsequently bid/ended up paying for others, I was struggling to understand not going in for him at the wanted price.

I agree what we're doing isn't new but I think we needed 'new' to have any chance of stopping up. Bit more experience and current quality over potential quality/potential resale value, a 28 year old CB who steadies our foundation enough to stay up instantly repays his cost way beyond a 21 year old with potential to sell at profit, who doesn't keep us up.

I think it's fair to say we've written this season off and are building to plan for promotion next season, hoping that we bounce right back and have a more PL-ready side by summer 2025. Which to me, is a bigger gamble than focusing on staying up now, and building the conveyor belt later. Relies on a lot more hypotheticals and is somewhat self defeating given this model relies on player sales first & foremost, which also means gutting the team that's being built for promotion/future stability. I understand it, I understand the potential upside being very high in a few years, I just think it's riskier and I'm a bit risk-averse.

[Vegas Claret]

For me this was just trying to keep a team ethos and continuity to hit the PL running and ride that wave and slowly bed in new players.

That's what I think we got wrong more than anything and I hope it's something VK reflects on.

100%

[dandeclaret]

Odds reflect what bets have been placed. If I put £1 million on us to stay up today, the odds will change massively. Not because the chances of us staying up have changed, but because the bookmakers need to cover my bet in case it wins.

Odds reflect the betting patterns, not reality. Hence why the bookies always win.

Odds rely on 2 things.... Quants and Risk Managament

1) Quants - high quality statistical models, particularly in top flight English football where there is little corruption / match fixing. After each change in inputs, models can be ran in a matter of minutes to create 2000 scenarios, allowing for actual probabilities to be created... this is the driving force between odds

2) Risk management - particularly important where you might not have all of the information available, or the sport isn't always black and white - eg horse racing, cricket, football new manager markets and tennis for starters.. where people placing a large amount of money may have more information than the bookie. This is highly unlikely to be the case in premier league football, and your Million pound bet on Burnley to stay up would just be accepted with minimal change.

[steve1264b]

Proven 27 to 30 yr olds are 30+ million

Those over 30 are on around 100k a week and would be looking for at least 60k a week on a 3 year contract.

Lots of foreign signings fail for whatever reason.

The under 25 market is probably all we can afford..

[Wokingclaret]

For me this was just trying to keep a team ethos and continuity to hit the PL running and ride that wave and slowly bed in new players.

That's what I think we got wrong more than anything and I hope it's something VK reflects on.

Yes, we didn't have that promotion bounce

[kentonclaret]

The problem with getting experienced players is they’ll be poor ones, ones not wanted at other PL clubs. You also hit a ceiling with them. Very limiting.

You mean like Ben Mee?

[Winstonswhite]

Our target should be 8 wins and a couple of draws. It’s more than achievable

That’s a 50% win rate.

To put into context, West Ham, currently 6th have a 45% win rate.

You’re dreaming pal!!

[KRBFC]

You mean like Ben Mee?

What does that mean? We signed Ben Mee when he was a youngster. He chose to leave when we were a Championship side. Not sure if we could have signed him this summer?

[Westleigh]

It’s all water under the bridge but imagine if we had kept Ben Mee,he could have even filled in at LB .

[boatshed bill]

People just mean a few more in the Berge mould, not a 22yr old Chelsea player

I don't know what people mean. But I do understand that PL ready players are out of our budget.
Not sure we should buy a similar player to Berge, if that is what you mean.