Did we change too much or too little?

[Sleeping Cat]

According to last years stats from here https://www.uptheclarets.com/202223-burnley-fc-stats

Last seasons top 16 names by mins

.................Starts - Subs - Mins
Josh Cullen 43 0 3,844
Arijanet Muric 41 0 3,616
Josh Brownhill 41 0 3,579
Connor Roberts 39 4 3529
Ian Maatsen 38 1 3321
Taylor H’d-B 31 1 2767
Jordan Beyer 29 1 2,532
Nathan Tella 31 8 2510
Jack Cork.... 26 13 2,434
Anass Zaroury 27 7 2,357
Vitinho..... 23 12 2,096
JB Guð..... 23 13 1,946
Ashley Barnes 22 17 1898
Jay Rodriguez 20 8 1,823
Charlie Taylor 17 16 1,712
Manuel Benson 14 19 1,487


When you look at the names above and compare to this years team, there's not much continuity and some big players missing.

[RVclaret]

And that surprises you when the owners have expertise in finance and making money and zero knowledge of running a football club.

Didn’t they run Real Salt Lake and play a pivotal role in the success sustained just after they left, specifically the 2009 MLS Championship, the only title in the clubs history? Oh and turned this club around in the face of adversity last season by making a brilliant appointment and nailing the strategy, to win the league? Perhaps worth rethinking that one.

[superdimitri]

I'm not writing off any of our younger players like Beyer, Vitinho etc but it's true that they aren't currently good enough for the Premier League. I also don't think Tella or Zaroury or Al-Dakhil are good enough for the Premier League. Cullen is a little different being older.

But when a lot of these players were signed initially I also don't think we expected to be promoted so fast so I can completely understand why we changed so much.

In hindsight a lot of the changes were in the wrong areas but I don't think I could say by changing less we would be better. What I will agree with is a lack of experience and leadership is an issue, but perhaps Kompany thought that would come from Cork, Rodriguez or Brownhill.. even Cullen? Who knows.

I think overall we should be in a much better position getting relegated this time to come back with a squad with more potential to make it in the Premier League, but of course there's always a big risk that just doesn't happen... And inevitably we will lose some players.

Regarding Luton I think a lot of their relative success has been because of their play style compared to us. They play more pragmatic Dyche like football which definitely helps teams when they are lacking in overall quality. We have just failed to keep possession and put chances away.. and you know that possession style football is certainly how Kompany wants to play. I don't believe Luton have more quality than we do, but they just got the balance right with their play style to win more games.

[Sleeping Cat]

Luton had 60% possession against us the other week. They may be physical, but they can play too.

We were a possession team. I'm not sure what we are now.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

I'm not writing off any of our younger players like Beyer, Vitinho etc but it's true that they aren't currently good enough for the Premier League. I also don't think Tella or Zaroury or Al-Dakhil are good enough for the Premier League. Cullen is a little different being older.

But when a lot of these players were signed initially I also don't think we expected to be promoted so fast so I can completely understand why we changed so much.

In hindsight a lot of the changes were in the wrong areas but I don't think I could say by changing less we would be better. What I will agree with is a lack of experience and leadership is an issue, but perhaps Kompany thought that would come from Cork, Rodriguez or Brownhill.. even Cullen? Who knows.

I think overall we should be in a much better position getting relegated this time to come back with a squad with more potential to make it in the Premier League, but of course there's always a big risk that just doesn't happen... And inevitably we will lose some players.

Regarding Luton I think a lot of their relative success has been because of their play style compared to us. They play more pragmatic Dyche like football which definitely helps teams when they are lacking in overall quality. We have just failed to keep possession and put chances away.. and you know that possession style football is certainly how Kompany wants to play. I don't believe Luton have more quality than we do, but they just got the balance right with their play style to win more games.

How do you know Tella, Al Dakhil and Zaroury aren’t good enough for this level? They were part of a team that finished way ahead of Luton whose players they’ve largely stuck with look at the moment very comfortable at this level. Amazing what a consistent system and time on the pitch can do.

[Big Vinny K]

If you break that down:

- 3 loans needed replacing to stand still
- 2 Barnsey & Jay needed replacing
- 3 we needed a new RB, LB and CM
- 2 assuming you subscribe to Benson & Zaroury perhaps being too lightweight for the Prem, 2 new wingers needed (not six, I agree)

So assuming everyone subscribes to that, that’s 10 players we needed to replace. You could argue the 11th we didn’t was Muric. Huge numbers regardless.

I agree we bought too many of the same type of players and not enough of others. I think that is a big error and why we are where we are, not the fact there was too much change because I think that was very much needed. And arguably more.

Firstly you are double counting the left back we needed.
That was one of the loans.

We did not need a new keeper either.

And as you said we did not need the number of wingers we bought or you could argue players like Ramsay or Amdouni

Whatever we you look at it we brought in too many players and spent too much money for the positions we supposedly “strengthened”

[Darthlaw]

For me we changed way too much.

Aside the critical purchases at the time (fullbacks and centre forwards) we should have concentrated on quality / premier league nous to continue our approach to last year.

Trafford wasn’t needed at the time although we could have done with a backup experienced PL Keeper in the mould of Hennessy like last time to help Muric.

Too early to judge Assignon but I don’t think Delcroix is / was of sufficient quality for a starting PL LB.

We probably needed one of O’Shea / Delcroix / Esteve and should have gone into the season with McNally as our fourth choice CB.

I’m happy with Berge and Massengo as potential midfield destroyer but we should have only gone for one of Tresor / Amdouni to play attacking midfield. Assuming Ramsey is a centre midfielder, we just didn’t need him.

Wingers (deep breath) should have gone with Redmond, Townsend and probably one of Koleosho or Odobert. JBL was a waste.

Finally we needed Fofana at the start of the season plus probably one up and coming striker. Obafemi was just a waste from start to finish.

I make us 7 players too heavy in the squad and bloated with Trafford, one of Delcroix/Esteve, Odobert, JBL, Ramsey, Amdouni and Obafemi going being those players.

All without the benefit of hindsight, of course.

[Ampth7]

I think the combination of transfers that haven’t paid off (yet), with the naive belief that we were somehow going to dominate possession the way we did last season has killed us.

We basically started the season with the game plan of trying to dominate, trying to play out from the back at all times, and we got thumped every week. Unfortunately, this has inevitably forced us to change/adapt our style of play seeing us booting it long much more often than not, leading to us unable to even dominate the ball at home to Luton Town for example.

In my opinion, this change has led to us losing our identity from last season as we search desperately for something that enables positive results, but this scatter gun approach with the style of play and starting 11 never ends well. Personally, I really don’t envy VK because he clearly knows we’re not good enough to play out the way he wants at this level and it now feels as though he’s clutching in the hope of something akin to a miraculous turnaround in form and fortune built on nothing much.

Conversely, when you look at Luton Town, they have a clear identity, a set starting 11 and squad built around a well-drilled playing style. They are in essence, a team greater than the sum of its parts and you have to admire what they have done having spent very little money on a team that only won promotion last year via the playoffs.

I also think our ‘buy young talent for less and sell for more’ policy/strategy has been over-cooked if you like. Long story short, we just don’t have enough ready-made and seasoned professionals on the pitch at present and as we all know, talent and potential alone is not enough in this league.

Lessons to be learned for next season, and I maintain my position in thinking the next transfer window is going to be really important. Hopefully not in terms of numbers coming in/out but in terms of signing a small number of solid pros to rebuild the heart of our team around a playing style that can win us promotion again along with a better chance of survival next time at this level.

[Anthonini]

Luton had 60% possession against us the other week. They may be physical, but they can play too.

We were a possession team. I'm not sure what we are now.

And still we beat them but the referee decided they scored an equaliser.

Actually I think Burnley really aren't that bad as the table points out. We could have easily have had the same amount of points Luton have. We got unlucky but there are some things in the transfer window we could have done better. A left back and a good striker to replace Foster, who was unavailable for a big part of the season unfortunately... Not so many wingers. Bruun Larsen and Redmond were completely unnecessary.

Season's still not over but it looks like we are going down unfortunately. If you look at the teams above us it will be very hard to bridge that gap.

[JR1882]

We clearly loaned too many key players last season and the success of Tella and Maatsen meant they became out of reach. Not signing THB and him ending up in the champ was a strange one.

We needed most obviously….

- a striker (Lyle semi plugged that gap)
- an athletic centre mid (still don’t have one)
- a left back (still don’t have one)
- a strong physical centre back (Esteve?)
- an upgrade on Roberts/Vitinho (we may have one now)

So despite spending £100m and signing god knows how many players, we filled none of those gaps in the summer, and only 2 in Jan.

We do continue to sign players who make little contribution, for whatever reason.

So yes we changed too much but also we changed the wrong areas. Cluster f**k is the technical term I think.

Yes some players signed will fetch a pretty penny but they would have fetched more if they were supplemented with experience and we stayed up.

[boatshed bill]

My memory is going a bit these days but surely only THB ,Tella ,and Maatsen were the only ones that needed replacing,Beyer was a loaner but signed permanently for us .

Regardless of game time our squad was reduced by 6.

[Wokingclaret]

And still we beat them but the referee decided they scored an equaliser.

VAR are still saying it was the correct decision and not an error

[Wokingclaret]

See the thing I find interesting is how many posters comment on how s**t last seasons best players have been (Cullen and Beyer mentioned on this thread already). I’ve seen reputable posters comment on how Beyer is a ‘really bad defender’ yet there was a poll on here by Jdrobbo last season asking which loan players you want to sign if you could pick one, and Beyer was top/a close second with Tella.

So I am basing my opinion that the amount of change was fine on the basis most of last seasons team have struggled. Mainly with the physicality. Cullen is very small for midfield at this level, Beyer is quite small/less physical than the average PL cb. Therefore I find comments about playing the likes of Zaroury/Benson instead of others interesting, given they are, like the two just mentioned, very small and weak in comparison to their peers at this level.

Then my overarching view is that, while 13 points is clearly very poor if looked at without any type of analysis, we are 4-6 points short of what we’ve deserved / earned in games to be robbed by a game deciding VAR decision as it is, and if we had a genuine back up option for Foster (Fofana), better quality right back than Vitinho (Assignon) and some height/defensive nous at the back (Esteve) all season, we’d have turned some of those tight games (West Ham, Palace, United, Wolves to name a few) into more points. So overall I think the amount of change was needed, but some key and blatant positions weren’t addressed.

What's height got to do with it, the premier has had loads of small players that have run the show, that said the old fella used to say a god big un will always beat a good little un.

Burnley have had loads of small players over the decades, some very very good

Yes, I'm disappointed Cullen isn't running the show.

[boatshed bill]

Luton had 60% possession against us the other week. They may be physical, but they can play too.

We were a possession team. I'm not sure what we are now.

A possession based team that can't keep the ball?

[NewClaret]

Luton had 60% possession against us the other week. They may be physical, but they can play too.

We were a possession team. I'm not sure what we are now.

This is a good point and I think it’s a far more accurate statement that we recruited to be a possession based team, probably in the wrong areas/in an imbalanced way, and have then (at the behest of the fans) changed style… become more ‘pragmatic’ but lost our identity.

[beeholeclaret]

Loads of valid points and a good discussion from posters which makes for a thought provoking read.

My views.

I generally support the efforts of Alan Pace, VK and what they are trying to do because where do we go as a club if we dont support their plans? Burnley have always been a buy cheap / sell high club and have never had an open cheque book when it comes to transfers.

Who decides on the incoming players? Is it AP and the database gurus or is VK fully involved in each decision? AP has obviously provided funds to rebuild the team so doubt VK would complain about this aspect.

VK has seemingly made mistakes although not sure if the recruitment of an excessively large number of lightweight wingers is all down to him. On paper it appears that we have spent £100m but its unlikely we will have parted with all of this in cash up front. More than likely a number of deals where transfer fees are spread more thinly over months if not years. A case in point is James Trafford where people are going way over the top in criticising the supposed £19m fee to bring him in. I feel sure a fair chunk of this will be based upon appearances and whether we are in Premier League or Championship. Over the last 10 years or so many Premier League clubs have paid much larger fees for players who are much poorer in quality and offered little in the way of skill and effort.

Could we have kept the promotion team together? I, like many others, would've loved to see them stride forward confidently into the PL together and let the promotion bounce and team spirit garner a few extra points and better performances. THB and Beyer looked great in Championship but I think their lack of pace wouldve been found out in PL. THB had no other PL suitors and is at Southampton while Beyer has succumbed to a number of injuries and has struggled to maintain last season's standards. Maatsen was a great player in last season's position and style of play but his skills were mainly in offensive areas as opposed to providing a rock solid defence. I think he may well have been targeted in PL with the deftly switched ball over the diagonals. Once Poch came in at Chelsea he offered him hope (and big money) at his base club and any promises made were enough to keep his feet firmly in London when we came knocking. Tella I would have loved to see him play for us in PL. He had pace, vision and enthusiasm and played with a smile on his face. Whether the PL would've wiped that smile off his face I dont know. He didnt possess a lot of physical strength so he may well have struggled although the threat of pace on a breakaway may have stifled our opponenets somewhat.

Some of the experienced (older) players had to go. They were no doubt on higher wages than the club was prepared to pay. Having kept Cork I'm surprised he hasnt featured this season even as a sub in games where we stood a chance of holding on for a point or two. Barnes left and we retained Jay although his legs and fitness are not up to current PL levels. JBG has played well in most games he's been called upon. Muric was inconsistent at times last season although we have missed his passing ability and sweeper role although I suspect PL opponenets wouldve soon hatched a plan to counteract his abilities.

In game management has not appeared too good this season. I think VK's substitutions against West Ham cost us 3 points. Although tiring, the front men were removed and replaced by fresh legsand it allowed a physically strong West Ham to launch attacks and long balls into our area. The new subs had no chance.

The strength of PL has been far greater than I imagined with most teams having far better players with strength and pace than at Burnley. Class and skill at the highest level was awesome with City, Spurs, Villa and Chelsea being far too good. Some of the opposing players had played more games at Turf Moor than many of our team.

Not only have we had to face these top teams but also seemingly the referees and their controllers in VAR. They have invariably awarded soft fouls to the opponents game in game out as a reward for their dramatic rolling and screaming. Our players have sometime manfully battled through shirt pulling and the rest without so much as free kick. Big decisions at Nottm Forest, Bournemouth and VIlla have potentially cost us 5 for 6 points which toghether with a few of the above mentioned self inflicted defeats couldve seen us in contention to stay up. Levels of inepxerience together with a tough fixture list have led to young players being devoid of confidence and this has shown in major moments where mistakes have cost us the game. VK's style is easy on the eye when it works but his Burnley experiment has had the locals worried and voicing their concerns for much of the season which is a shame after the joys of last May.

Lots of fine margins as Dyche used to say.

[Ampth7]

And still we beat them but the referee decided they scored an equaliser.

Actually I think Burnley really aren't that bad as the table points out. We could have easily have had the same amount of points Luton have. We got unlucky but there are some things in the transfer window we could have done better. A left back and a good striker to replace Foster, who was unavailable for a big part of the season unfortunately... Not so many wingers. Bruun Larsen and Redmond were completely unnecessary.

Season's still not over but it looks like we are going down unfortunately. If you look at the teams above us it will be very hard to bridge that gap.

I certainly agree with the left back situation, although in fairness there seems to be a lack of affordable options available in that position to improve us it seems. The Foster situation has also been unfortunate, as has losing Koleosho, although injuries are part and parcel of the game for every team.

However, I don’t agree with your suggestion that we maybe aren’t as bad as the table suggests. The table never lies in my opinion, especially at this stage of the year, although it can be misleading in the early stages of a season. Could have, should have, would have adds up to the root sum of nothing, and we now have a mountain to climb that would now be a record breaking effort (I think?) if we did somehow manage it.

I just desperately hope that we don’t go down with a whimper so to speak, because we really don’t want to be starting next season off the back of a 20 point season in the prem.

[Dark Cloud]

I know this thread isn't really about individual players, but two who have come up regularly throughout it are 1. Cullen: Absolutely deservedly player of the year last year, but not PL standard and he's had several opportunities to prove it this season (unlike some others!) and has been found wanting. Remember West Ham previously decided he wasn't up to the level and moved him on. 2. Beyer: I don't THINK he's ever been fully fit and was playing at times out of sheer necessity, so it's hard to say whether he's good enough or not. (imo)

[Claret Alfie]

We changed too much. Not just players but style of play too. I think we’d have more success playing the way we did last year than this.

We were miles better than Luton last season and now we are worse. All this nonsense of the step up from the Championship being too much but there’s numerous poor teams in this league. We’ve just been awful this season.

[boatshed bill]

We changed too much. Not just players but style of play too. I think we’d have more success playing the way we did last year than this.

We were miles better than Luton last season and now we are worse. All this nonsense of the step up from the Championship being too much but there’s numerous poor teams in this league. We’ve just been awful this season.

Head to head we are still better than Luton. We should have had all 6 points this season.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I certainly agree with the left back situation, although in fairness there seems to be a lack of affordable options available in that position to improve us it seems. The Foster situation has also been unfortunate, as has losing Koleosho, although injuries are part and parcel of the game for every team.

However, I don’t agree with your suggestion that we maybe aren’t as bad as the table suggests. The table never lies in my opinion, especially at this stage of the year, although it can be misleading in the early stages of a season. Could have, should have, would have adds up to the root sum of nothing, and we now have a mountain to climb that would now be a record breaking effort (I think?) if we did somehow manage it.

I just desperately hope that we don’t go down with a whimper so to speak, because we really don’t want to be starting next season off the back of a 20 point season in the prem.

Statisticians have a phrase “regression to the mean” which would support your theory about the table never lying. However, that would only apply if we played hundreds more games. 38 games isn’t statistically enough for chance not to have a big say.

That is proven by today’s news about the clubs that have gained, or lost, due to VAR. Liverpool have apparently lost the most and would be miles clear by now. I have no doubt we deserve to be on 20 points even with how we are playing.

So I expect we will be stronger next season than many think, whichever league we are in.

[Wokingclaret]

Head to head we are still better than Luton. We should have had all 6 points this season.

But we didn't and the table doesn't lie.

[CoolClaret]

I don't think it's anything quite like the players weren't good enough, no one that isn't deluded knew how tough it'd be - more that riding that wave of promotion with the team we could have taken a few more points in the opening third of the season.

We all knew it took a good 10 games to even begin to gel last season - so going into this one and starting players that hadn't played for the club before in VKs system that is notably hard to become accustomed to was just insanity - as was some of the earlier season set ups which at times were even more expansive than they were last season and in turn made players like Cullen look really bad - namely that sort of '4-2-4' ish that we had with him and Berge in midfield with Berge bombing on, often leaving Cullen completely isolated in the middle.

Then you look at Spurs away in the cup and Luton at home and Cullen actually played well and looked really settled - though the poorer showings early season has helped push that narrative that he isn't good enough.

If we started the season with something like:

-------------Muric
Roberts-Ekdal-Beyer-Chaz/New
---------Cullen-Cork/New
New------Brownhill-----Zaroury
------------Foster

I hand on heart believe that we'd have picked up more points than we had in the first 10 games or so, then slowly start integrating other signings we'd be sitting a lot prettier than we are now

Amdouni's inclusion has also been at a massive cost of the team overall.

He's an absolute passenger for large parts of games and his output hasn't anywhere near justified his continuous inclusion, sacrificing for a midfielder or pushing Brownhill further forward would have allowed us to defend/press from the front much more effectively.

Now we have this weird style where we can't play the expansive game that VK wants us to (keeper doesn't have the ability with the ball, and we were shipping too many) yet we also don't have the personnel to play a more direct/physical style, leading to a lot of these absolute nothing mish-mash performances and a lot of fans scratching their heads.

[Clive 1960]

for me not enough experience players on the pitch and not a proper captain to talk to the young players..

[Big Vinny K]

We changed too much. Not just players but style of play too. I think we’d have more success playing the way we did last year than this.

We were miles better than Luton last season and now we are worse. All this nonsense of the step up from the Championship being too much but there’s numerous poor teams in this league. We’ve just been awful this season.

If you look at the 4 games we have played against Luton there has actually been very little between the teams. Even last year when we finished miles ahead of them they caused us problems with their height and physicality.

This season Luton have kept the bulk of their team and where they have added it’s been quality. Most of our players have changed and so as our style of play (on more than one occasion).

And as we know with our previous style of play under Dyche a more direct style relying on physicality and focusing in particular in winning the second ball can cause problems for teams in the PL.

You can see in that Luton team a number of players who are really hungry to prove to themselves and others that they can compete in this league. They have a lot of athletic players and a very high degree of fitness. Other than Barkley they don’t have many players with as much technical ability as most of other teams - but the fact that they have managed to rejuvenate Barkley has been massive for them. He’s exceeded everyone’s expectations this year including probably his own. He’s stayed fit too and he’s at the heart of everything they do. The way he has played this year he would have got in at least half of the teams in this league. It’s inspired signings like this that can sometimes make the difference.

[superdimitri]

How do you know Tella, Al Dakhil and Zaroury aren’t good enough for this level? They were part of a team that finished way ahead of Luton whose players they’ve largely stuck with look at the moment very comfortable at this level. Amazing what a consistent system and time on the pitch can do.

Partly because of their strengths and weaknesses and the difference in the leagues. You have to play a very different game to do well in the championship to the premier league. Lutons tactics are just more effective when you can't obtain a certain calibre player... Much the same as Dyche tactics were at Burnley.

There's also that Kompany himself (and backroom staff) see players in training and if he thinks Zaroury isn't near the level required then he's not going to start him. Al-Dakhil you could tell was very raw (and naive) from his run in the side and Tella didn't break through into Southampton side when they were in the division.

That doesn't mean they won't develop to that level, just that they aren't there right now. To play the brand of football we want to play we need players to be better and we need leaders and more character. I think once relegated it should mean we come back stronger but we must replace those we already know aren't going to get good enough and keep those with room for development.

[ClaretTony]

Too many changes for sure and not in the right areas which has left us with an ill equipped, unbalanced squad. We anlso have a serious lack of Premier League experience with much of what we have rarely featuring. Add to that the number of changes game by game and it’s hardly conducive to good, consistent results.

We’ve no idea yet what the three January signings are going to give us but hopefully they will make positive contributions although I can’t see how we can get close to staying up now.

[KRBFC]

I think the most glaring thing we’ve changed is the entire gameplan and tactics that got us there.

[boatshed bill]

But we didn't and the table doesn't lie.

4/6 says we are better

[chipbutty]

Far too much change.
Far too young.
Far too quick.
That's the problem.
Same as it would be anywhere.

[DCWat]

We had a weapons grade, bat **** mental summer! We’ve lost what made us so great last season.

It’s quite right that we are judged against Luton. A team that last season we were head and shoulders above. One of us recruited sensibly, astutely, didn’t throw the baby out with the bath water and took a calculated risk on the likes of Barkley (a player many deemed not good enough for us).

The other, spunked silly money in the same areas when Stevie Wonder could have identified the key areas that needed attention. Last summer smacks of naivety, some vanity project that Pace and his cronies bought into without any consideration of the squad as a whole.

We could and should have stayed up this season, with just a little more sense in our transfer dealings and a tad more loyalty to those who served us so well, last season.

I wouldn’t bin Kompany off (we can’t forget last season) but **** me, he’s made a right balls up of it this year! He needs to learn quickly otherwise his managerial career will go the way of so many other ‘big’ names.

I still believe that he has a bit more about him - hopefully I’m not clutching at straws!!

[mikeS]

One factor I believe that didn't help us was from the end of last Season was not playing any pre-season friendlies in the summer at home.
The first time we played we got thumped by City.
Second time thumped by Villa and the Spurs on and on.
I hope the club don't do that again and nice though it might be touring around Europe in the summer, for the players and fans alike, it didn't help build an awareness for the new players settling in on their home ground and playing there in front of a home crowd.

[Nori1958]

One factor I believe that didn't help us was from the end of last Season was not playing any pre-season friendlies in the summer at home.
The first time we played we got thumped by City.
Second time thumped by Villa and the Spurs on and on.
I hope the club don't do that again and nice though it might be touring around Europe in the summer, for the players and fans alike, it didn't help build an awareness for the new players settling in on their home ground and playing there in front of a home crowd.

Iam sure playing in front of 3000 in a friendly would have helped in the games you mentioned.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Got to be time to bring back the Lancs Manx Cup and then we can really get our seasons going.

[Ampth7]

Statisticians have a phrase “regression to the mean” which would support your theory about the table never lying. However, that would only apply if we played hundreds more games. 38 games isn’t statistically enough for chance not to have a big say.

That is proven by today’s news about the clubs that have gained, or lost, due to VAR. Liverpool have apparently lost the most and would be miles clear by now. I have no doubt we deserve to be on 20 points even with how we are playing.

So I expect we will be stronger next season than many think, whichever league we are in.

Interesting points and well made. However, we aren’t anywhere near 20 points in reality, and whilst we can blame that on luck, VAR, injuries, the end outcome of relegation still looks highly likely. In that sense, the stats don’t/won’t lie come the end of the season whether we finish in the relegation zone on say 22 points or not. The outcome will either be relegation or not, and if we are relegated it will be because ultimately we haven’t been good enough and not because of bad luck.

Regarding next season, I certainly like your idea that we may well be stronger whichever division we are in, and let’s hope you are right. However, I’m not convinced that the stats for this season can fully support this idea other than the one stat that shows teams who go down have a much better chance than the rest of winning promotion. I believe this because the stats can’t predict the many unknowns between now and then. Unknowns such as ins and outs, has/will VK lost/lose the dressing room, the style of play the manager will employ, pre-season, how strong is the championship going to at the top of the division etc….

Ultimately time will tell and in the first instance let’s hope for a miraculous recovery this season, and failing that, let’s hope we bounce back stronger the following year!