Magic Numbers - 2016/17

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Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:07 pm

Usual caveats apply, it's a theoretical total for each team individually, it doesn't take into account teams playing each other.

Link is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by dibraidio » Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:11 am

Currently we're out of the bottom 3 until March 18th. There will be 9 games to go at that point.
Hull's form will play a massive part in how this plays out as they face us, Leicester and Swansea in their next three games. Not forgetting that we play Hull, Swansea and Sunderland ourselves.

Swansea could go above us if they beat Chelsea away and then beat us on March 4th.
Boro could go above us on March 11th if they beat Palace and Stoke away and Sunderland at home.
Leicester could draw level on points if they beat Liverpool and Hull at home and Arsenal away, they can go above us on March 18th if they beat West Ham away.
Hull could overtake us on March 18th but that would mean beating us, Leicester away, Swansea at home and Everton away.
Palace could go above us on March 18th if they win their next four.
Sunderland could go above us if they beat us on March 18th but they'd also need to beat Everton, Manchester City and Boro.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:43 pm

With another five matches played this is how many points each team's magic number has fallen

Sunderland..............46 - 18 to 28
Palace......................47 - 19 to 28
Hull..........................44 - 15 to 29
Leicester..................52 - 22 to 30
Boro.........................50 - 19 to 31
Swansea..................46 - 13 to 33
Bournemouth..........56 - 21 to 35
Looking good.
UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bartons baggage » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:52 am

Vince Fontaine wrote:With another five matches played this is how many points each team's magic number has fallen

Sunderland..............46 - 18 to 28
Palace......................47 - 19 to 28
Hull..........................44 - 15 to 29
Leicester..................52 - 22 to 30
Boro.........................50 - 19 to 31
Swansea..................46 - 13 to 33
Bournemouth..........56 - 21 to 35
Looking good.
UTC
I wish i had a clue with this magic number thing but i don't.
I'll just rely on you brighter posters telling me it's good. :D
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by andyh » Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:02 am

Simply put when 3 teams get to 0 we are staying up. Every week we pick up points or a team fails to win reduces the number. So every week the number drops on at least half the teams. Every time we pick up a point every teams number drops by the number of points we pick up. So if we win and another team draws their number would drop by 5. As the numbers really aren't that big now a couple of good weeks and we are nearly there.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by mdd2 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:12 am

All teams have 13 games left and so could get another 39 points (in reality as they play each other they cannot, but stay with the assumption of an extra 39 pts). Add that 39 to the points they already gave and subtract the points we have currently eg Sunderland have 19 points, add on 39 and subtract 30 and you get 28 which is the number of points we need to get to equal Sunderland's theoretical total. If they win their next match and we lose that number remains at 28; if they draw and we lose the number falls to 26. If we win and they lose the number falls to 22.
It is just a complicated way of stating we need another 29 points to be certain to stay up but as Stan would say a blind man on a galloping horse can see it is less than that.
More confused now? I know I am. :? :? :?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Ric_C » Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:27 am

So from that list, only Swansea have gained on us over the last five games? That's pretty impressive

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:36 am

Vince Fontaine wrote:With another five matches played this is how many points each team's magic number has fallen

Sunderland..............46 - 18 to 28
Palace......................47 - 19 to 28
Hull..........................44 - 15 to 29
Leicester..................52 - 22 to 30
Boro.........................50 - 19 to 31
Swansea..................46 - 13 to 33
Bournemouth..........56 - 21 to 35
Looking good.
UTC

Looking at this again and with the next five fixtures of each team in mind. We could have single digit magic numbers at the 30 match point.
If we look at the two teams that have the same or a better record than us over the last 5 matches, Swansea ( 3 wins) and hull ( 2 wins 1 draw) they have had an up turn in form and a continuation of this would probably see them catch us. However two teams, Leicester (0 points) and Bournemouth ( 1 point) have managed to get themselves in trouble. The other 3 teams have carried on reducing at a similar rate ( 17/20 points) over the last five matches.
We have affected the magic numbers by 7 points of every club and an upturn in all these teams and a downturn in our form is virtually impossible ( as they play each other). I look forward to the most important 5/7 matches ( including the cup) in our recent history.
Exciting times
UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by claretandy » Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:38 am

doing the prem predictor on another thread i have us staying up with 3 games to go.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by aggi » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:56 pm

aggi wrote:I must admit that I don't find the magic numbers as interesting as the extrapolated form tables (although it will obviously become more interesting as teams head to zero).

It has occurred to me though that these may not be quite accurate. What we're showing at the moment is the points to be level with us. I think to be strictly accurate 1 should be added to the magic number so as to reflect the position where teams can't catch us at all.

The alternative is that the magic number reflects the current goal difference (i.e. if they have a better goal difference than Burnley 1 is added to the magic number, if it is worse then it stays the same). I'm not sure if this is a good idea as goal difference is a reflection of the current rather than final position.
I thought about this and decided that the magic numbers should all be increased by 1 to reflect that we could be level on points and not safe. The magic number, I would say, represents being unable to be caught.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Clarets4me » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:47 pm

bump

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:12 pm

Losses for Boro, Swansea, Sunderland and our draw mean they drop four points each.
Palace won but our draw takes them down a point.
Hull, of course, drew so drop two points plus our draw takes another off them.
Now, it's
Swans 29
Boro 27
Palace 27
Hull 26
Sunderland 24
If Leicester beat Liverpool they stay on 32, if they lose they go down to 29, a draw will move them down to 30.

Again, another very good day's work for the Clarets.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by minnieclaret » Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:03 pm

5 sides under 30 with 12 matches left is excellent news.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Croydon Claret » Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:36 pm

2 and a half points per game and we're sorted. We've been achieving above that for the last few weeks

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:56 pm

Gets better week by week

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by africlaret » Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:25 pm

Actually, if Leicester win they drop to 29,draw 27,lose 26.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:48 pm

Even better, if correct.
I've been away in Austria for the last ten days, I may well have missed a Leicester loss out.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:40 pm

With Boro and Hull losing and Bournemouth getting a draw, this is how it stands. It could be even better later today...

Bmouth...30
Lcstr......30
Swans.....30
Palace....28
Boro.......25
Sland......25
Hull.......24

The next few fixtures are
Today Sunderland v Man City

11/03 Bournemouth v WHU
Hull v Swansea
Lpool v Burnley

18/03 Sunderland v Burnley
Palace v Watford
WHU v Leicester
Bournemouth v Swansea

19/03 Boro v Man Utd

The worst case scenario, two defeats v Liverpool and Sunderland - even if Boro beat Man Utd and Hull beat Swansea - we'll still be six points above the relegation zone having played a game more.
Looking pretty good, I'd say. We're almost at the point where Sunderland, Hull and Bro have to win, draws aren't much good to them whereas any point(s) for us will do.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by mdd2 » Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:18 pm

It is the number of points we need to stay safe in the light of the teams winning all their matches so not sure it is getting much better all the time. We are a long way before the bottom three need to win all their matches. At the moment only one has to cobble together 6 wins for us to need another 6 points (Hull Boro or Sland).

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:40 pm

Looking at previous results you have to go back to the Man City game when the gap was less than 9 points (was 8 after 20 matches).

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Ashingtonclaret46 » Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:40 pm

mdd2 wrote:It is the number of points we need to stay safe in the light of the teams winning all their matches so not sure it is getting much better all the time. We are a long way before the bottom three need to win all their matches. At the moment only one has to cobble together 6 wins for us to need another 6 points (Hull Boro or Sland).
You have to remember though that apart from playing us, Sunderland have to play Middlesbrough and Hull away from home.
Middlesbrough have to play Sunderland at home and Hull away, which obviously means that Hull have to play Sunderland and Middlesbrough at home.
You could also add Crystal Palace into that mix because they have to play Middlesbrough and Hull at home, in fact, Palace have a difficult run-in because they also have to play Spurs and Arsenal at home and go away to Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United.
Middlesbrough probably have the second hardesst run-in with matches against Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City at home and Chelsea and Liverpool away.

In view of those fixtures this will affect the number of points that these clubs could get because if one managed to achieve 11 wins it would mean that the others could only achieve a maximum of 9.

We do need to pick up more points and it will not be easy, although even a point at Sunderland and a point at Palace would go a long way to keeping our status.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Mar 05, 2017 6:06 pm

Yup, they can't all win. I think we should see how we go on against Liverpool and then really rip into Sunderland.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by dibraidio » Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:46 am

Based on the current tally of points per game, the bottom three would fail to catch us on 31 points.

Boro played 27, 22 points , points per game: 0.814, over 38 games: 30.932
Hull played 27, 21 points , points per game: 0.777, over 38 games: 29.555
S'land played 27, 19 points , points per game: 0.703, over 38 games: 26.740
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by dibraidio » Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:59 am

We're out of the bottom three until at least April 5th even if we lose our next four games.

Boro could catch us on April 5th but that would mean beating Man Utd and Man City at home and then they host us on the 8th.
Hull could catch us on April 5th if they win their next four.
Sunderland can catch us on 9th April assuming that they beat us and Man UTD at home and Leicester away.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Goddy » Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:09 am

dibraidio wrote:Based on the current tally of points per game, the bottom three would fail to catch us on 31 points.

Boro played 27, 22 points , points per game: 0.814, over 38 games: 30.932
Hull played 27, 21 points , points per game: 0.777, over 38 games: 29.555
S'land played 27, 19 points , points per game: 0.703, over 38 games: 26.740
Burnley played 27, 31 points, points per game: 1.148, over 38 games: 43.624

So, every three games, on average across the season so far, roughly, we pull a point away from Boro, Hull and Sunlan. For the remainder of the season one of those three suddenly has to start pulling back one point per game against us for the remainder of the season!!!!!

....or put another way, it would take a dramatic fall in form from us (like, only 2/3 more points for the season) - and remember after the L'pool and Sunlan games we have 5 to play at home and only 4 away left - combined with a dramatic upturn in form from one of those three (i.e. suddenly start going at over a point per game) for us to go down.

It's possible that the nightmare scenario could happen but highly unlikely. Quite frankly, I reckon we could, quite easily, be safe with 35 points. I'd be amazed if anyone gets relegated with 38 points, so for me, 2 wins and a draw will be enough.....and we'll do that.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:39 am

The way I look at it is that we've got into four games (Watford, Chelsea, Hull, Swansea) with a fair few options out, and we've still come out of it with two points.

Even continuing that form, thats still six points, which would be 37.

That would be a catastrophic loss of form, and probably a few more injuries, and we'd still be safe.

I'm starting to think that one more win will probably do it, as we bound to pick up draws here and there.

But I won't be 100% sure until its mathematically impossible!

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:48 pm

Re an earlier post above, if Sunderland don't win any of their games, they can't catch us. We could do with them nicking points off Boro and Hull.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by gawthorpe_view » Mon Mar 06, 2017 1:21 pm

Reading this I feel like someone who doesn't' 'get' a joke, but laughs along anyway.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Mon Mar 06, 2017 1:33 pm

gawthorpe_view wrote:Reading this I feel like someone who doesn't' 'get' a joke, but laughs along anyway.
:lol: :lol:

The world is a better place when you follow magic numbers more than the actual table.

It is the go to stat our whatsapp group chat goes to after every game played to make sure how we're doing.

I could try and explakn it if you like?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by gawthorpe_view » Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:55 pm

bfccrazy wrote::lol: :lol:

The world is a better place when you follow magic numbers more than the actual table.

It is the go to stat our whatsapp group chat goes to after every game played to make sure how we're doing.

I could try and explakn it if you like?
Ignorance is bliss, but thanks' for the offer.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vegas Claret » Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:07 pm

feel free to explain it !!!!!!!!!

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfcmik » Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:37 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:feel free to explain it !!!!!!!!!
Essentially it is how many points we need to take if each named team win EVERY one of their fixtures.

It can't happen that way as many of their fixtures are against other teams in the list but the idea is that 3 teams will eventually drop below the 0 and we will be 100% safe!

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vegas Claret » Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:39 pm

perfect, thank you !

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:11 am

Vegas Claret wrote:feel free to explain it !!!!!!!!!
It's the number of points each team in the league can finish above us at this point if they win every game remaining and we lose every game.

Once a team reaches 0 they can no longer catch our point tally at that point of the season.

The confusing bit comes where all the teams below us cannot get all the points shown as they have to play each other still and in that match (one of the games left in which they can gain points to catch us) one of the teams below us has to lose points (only 1 team can gain 3 points or both get 1 if they draw).

If we win a game and a team below us loses we gain a further 3 points advantage and they lose a game that they could have caught us on so alsp lose a further potential 3 points .... Meaning that they lose 6 points off their "magic number".

As the season progresses teams will drop points as they play gamea and what we look for is as many teams as possible dropping to that magical zero figure in the magic number column (which means they cannot mathematically catch is any longer).

Last season we followed all the teams right up to Boro in 2nd place to the magical zero figure as we wom the league ..... This season the emphasis is more on getting 3 teams at the bottom of the table to that zero figure.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:59 am

With 11 matches to go it's perhaps worth looking at the table the same number of games back.

The gap between the teams isn't much different than it is now, even though we are in a difficult set of fixtures.

For example, Swansea are 4 points behind (5 previously)

The one big difference is that we've increased the gap between ourselves and the bottom three by quite a way!

It's looking good. :)
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Goddy » Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:51 am

Puts it in perspective how difficult it is to get points, Spijed, especially if confidence is low at the bottom of the league. So, in the last 11 games the current bottom 3 have collected;

Boro 7 points
Hull 9 points
Sunderland 8 points

Again, to reiterate, it's going to take a monumental effort from one of those 3 teams to get to, even 35 points as they'll each need the following number of points from their last 11 games to get to there;

Boro 13 more points
Hull 14 more points
Sunderland 16 more points

I maintain, that if we get to 36 points or better, we are highly likely to stay up. One win and a couple of draws could be enough.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:11 pm

Goddy wrote:I maintain, that if we get to 36 points or better, we are highly likely to stay up. One win and a couple of draws could be enough.
Sunderland(a), Stoke(h), Boro(a), could get us those 5 points.
With losing Liverpool(a), Spurs(h), Everton(a), Man U(h)

That would be safe with 4 games to go.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:23 pm

Swansea -3

And the last time we had a gap of less than 7 points was after the Boro game.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Jel » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:32 am

What's the latest?

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Rick_Muller » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:32 am

Jel wrote:What's the latest?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The spreadsheet updates automatically as far as I know - the latest numbers are on the link
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Jel » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:55 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

The spreadsheet updates automatically as far as I know - the latest numbers are on the link
I'm not sure if it does Rick, from what I can see the latest shows us having only played 30 games.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by aggi » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:24 pm

Jel wrote:I'm not sure if it does Rick, from what I can see the latest shows us having only played 30 games.
It's up to date (it updates when Sky Sports updates their league table) but we've only played 28 games so far.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Jel » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:13 pm

aggi wrote:It's up to date (it updates when Sky Sports updates their league table) but we've only played 28 games so far.
Sorry mixed that up. I meant only shows 30 points and 25 played

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by aggi » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:25 pm

Jel wrote:Sorry mixed that up. I meant only shows 30 points and 25 played
Ah, you're probably on the Week 25 tab which was a snapshot at week 25. You want the far left tab Tables

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Clarets4me » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Now updated after the Bournmouth result.....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Getting closer...

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by claretandy » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:02 am

Magic numbers don't really work when you are down the bottom as it assumes teams can win every game (which they won't), it worked last season because we were top and other teams who were winning were chasing us. I predict sunderland won't be able to catch us with 3 games to go and Boro and Hull might go to the last game so magic numbers are irrelevant.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by minnieclaret » Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:20 am

All positive.
Hull, 6 wins in 29, need 3 wins to pass us.
Boro, 4 wins in 27, need 4 matches to pass us.
S'land, 5 wins in 28, need 5 matches to pass us.

dibraidio
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by dibraidio » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:45 am

claretandy wrote:Magic numbers don't really work when you are down the bottom as it assumes teams can win every game (which they won't), it worked last season because we were top and other teams who were winning were chasing us. I predict sunderland won't be able to catch us with 3 games to go and Boro and Hull might go to the last game so magic numbers are irrelevant.
How can you say that claretandy? We now know that if we're going to qualify for the champions league we'll have to go via the qualifying rounds.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:18 am

A very interesting series of games coming up over the next few days
Saturday
BFC v Spurs
Hull v WHU
Watford v Sland
Chelsea v Palace

Sunday
Swansea v Boro

Tuesday
BFC v Stoke
Leicester v Sland

Weds
Soton v Palace
Swansea v Spurs

As many draws as possible for the teams below us would make our job even easier.
UTC
Last edited by evensteadiereddie on Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Spijed
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:49 am

evensteadiereddie wrote:A very interesting series of games coming up over the next few days
Saturday
BFC v Spurs
Hull v Palace
Watford v Sland

Sunday
Swansea v Boro

Tuesday
BFC v Stoke
Leicester v Sland

Weds
Soton v Palace
Swansea v Spurs

As many draws as possible for the teams below us would make our job even easier.
UTC
Hull play West Ham on Saturday.
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