Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I completely forgot that I updated the magic numbers spreadsheet a few weeks ago for the Premier League.
At the moment I've hidden the extrapolated tables based on 6 & 10 matches as they're a bit meaningless.
Usual caveats apply, it's a theoretical total for each team individually, it doesn't take into account teams playing each other.
Link is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
At the moment I've hidden the extrapolated tables based on 6 & 10 matches as they're a bit meaningless.
Usual caveats apply, it's a theoretical total for each team individually, it doesn't take into account teams playing each other.
Link is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Bit optimistic
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Quality, you should also put in an automatic explanation of how it works, when the inevitable question arises.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Not altogether sure but if Burnley are starting with 108 doesn't that mean we beat everybody we've yet to play twice. Therefore their magic number should have come down by 6 not 3?
Cheers for starting it up again.
Cheers for starting it up again.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Not really.Garnerssoap wrote:Bit optimistic
We simply have to reduce 3 teams to zero instead of 23!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Now that we've all played more than 6 games I've reinstated the extrapolated table based on the form in the last 6 games. Nothing on there is particularly interesting at the moment given that we're only a few games into the season.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Yes !!!
I've missed this !!!
I've missed this !!!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Good work aggi
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Nice work guys.
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Has this been forgotten. I like it when we are doing well.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Now that we've played more than 10 games I've added back the extrapolated position based on the last 10 matches as well.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I tried to copy and paste the table after 10 matches but because I'm an IT numbskull I can't. One of you clever IT types couldn't do it could you then we can see how quickly/slowly the magic numbers reduce as the season progresses and we can reference back.
UTC
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
That's probably due to the table all being made up of formulae. If you copy it and then when you want to paste, right click, choose paste special and values only.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I took a screenshot on my I pad after 10 matches and wanted to post that. It's in my photos and allows me to copy it but not to paste it. Like I said I've not got much idea when it comes to IT stuff. Any ideas?
UTC
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
It's a great document.
Thanks.
Thanks.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Managed it!!!!!!
After 10 matches so we can reference back.
UTC
After 10 matches so we can reference back.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
If I remember I'll try and copy it into a new tab every 5 weeks.
There's a good chance I won't remember though (the spreadsheet updates itself without me doing anything) so it will probably be wise to bump it at that point.
There's a good chance I won't remember though (the spreadsheet updates itself without me doing anything) so it will probably be wise to bump it at that point.
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Week 15 has been copied to a new tab.
We're still doing OK, although those teams that were doing really badly down the bottom end of the table like Sunderland, Swansea and Hull have improved their form somewhat compared to the first 10 games.
We're still doing OK, although those teams that were doing really badly down the bottom end of the table like Sunderland, Swansea and Hull have improved their form somewhat compared to the first 10 games.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
5 matches on and Sunderland have dropped by 12
Hull By 16
Swansea by 14
West Ham by 18
Middlesbrough by 16
Crystal Palace by 17
Our next 5 matches are against
West Ham
Tottenham
Middlesbrough
Sunderland and
Man City
IF we can avoid defeat against West Ham Middlesbrough and Sunderland we should be on track for a point a match and their numbers will have reduced further, wins against these three and half way through the season we'll be well ahead of where we need to be!!!
UTC
Hull By 16
Swansea by 14
West Ham by 18
Middlesbrough by 16
Crystal Palace by 17
Our next 5 matches are against
West Ham
Tottenham
Middlesbrough
Sunderland and
Man City
IF we can avoid defeat against West Ham Middlesbrough and Sunderland we should be on track for a point a match and their numbers will have reduced further, wins against these three and half way through the season we'll be well ahead of where we need to be!!!
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
First up - many thanks for those doing this.
A couple of observations;
1. Those previously doing really badly are still doing really badly in spite of any upturn in form. After 10 games we were 4 points above third from bottom and now we are 5 points above that position.
2. I'm (pleasantly) surprised about how quickly the magic numbers have come down. Teams like Hull dropping 16 points nearer to the 'magic' zero!!
3. Surprised, too about the form table and the fact that even teams like Everton (in theory) could get sucked into a relegation battle if they aren't careful.
4. On whatever basis you look, according to those extrapolations and form tables, it looks as though as low as 35 points might be enough. (Still would prefer nailed on safety of 38-40 points, mind).
I don't wish to get complacent but all this does give cause for hope/optimism about our achieving safety(although ask me again after tomorrow night's game, perhaps!)
A couple of observations;
1. Those previously doing really badly are still doing really badly in spite of any upturn in form. After 10 games we were 4 points above third from bottom and now we are 5 points above that position.
2. I'm (pleasantly) surprised about how quickly the magic numbers have come down. Teams like Hull dropping 16 points nearer to the 'magic' zero!!
3. Surprised, too about the form table and the fact that even teams like Everton (in theory) could get sucked into a relegation battle if they aren't careful.
4. On whatever basis you look, according to those extrapolations and form tables, it looks as though as low as 35 points might be enough. (Still would prefer nailed on safety of 38-40 points, mind).
I don't wish to get complacent but all this does give cause for hope/optimism about our achieving safety(although ask me again after tomorrow night's game, perhaps!)
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
We are certainly capable of getting 5 wins out of our remaining 10 home matches. That leaves one extra win and a few draws.Goddy wrote:First up - many thanks for those doing this.
A couple of observations;
1. Those previously doing really badly are still doing really badly in spite of any upturn in form. After 10 games we were 4 points above third from bottom and now we are 5 points above that position.
2. I'm (pleasantly) surprised about how quickly the magic numbers have come down. Teams like Hull dropping 16 points nearer to the 'magic' zero!!
3. Surprised, too about the form table and the fact that even teams like Everton (in theory) could get sucked into a relegation battle if they aren't careful.
4. On whatever basis you look, according to those extrapolations and form tables, it looks as though as low as 35 points might be enough. (Still would prefer nailed on safety of 38-40 points, mind).
I don't wish to get complacent but all this does give cause for hope/optimism about our achieving safety(although ask me again after tomorrow night's game, perhaps!)
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Be intersting to see this after the next 5 games.... I know the magic numbers cannot calculate which teams are playing each other but if we have a favourable run the next 5 - the magic numbers could look very very nice after our game with City.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
10 points knocked off in last 3 games and a potential to "knock 6" off Sunderland this week too....looking good going into the new year !!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Excellent work but you may need to add the Fat Sam factor for Palace.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Anyone done the "REALLY MAGIC NUMBERS" - the ones that show SuBo and his bunch of underachievers getting relegated?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Hull minus another 2
Now on 50 so that's 64 in 19 matches.
Let's see where we are half way through the season
UTC
Now on 50 so that's 64 in 19 matches.
Let's see where we are half way through the season
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Hi Aggi, if the doc. is updating constantly is there any way you can share it's link so we can peruse whenever?aggi wrote:If I remember I'll try and copy it into a new tab every 5 weeks.
There's a good chance I won't remember though (the spreadsheet updates itself without me doing anything) so it will probably be wise to bump it at that point.
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
It's the link in the first post.minnieclaret wrote:Hi Aggi, if the doc. is updating constantly is there any way you can share it's link so we can peruse whenever?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Cheers, it's a while since I looked at post 1.aggi wrote:It's the link in the first post.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
That's 3 teams with less than 50 points left.
Sunderland. 48
Hull 47
Swansea. 46
The best of the bottom 3 have decreased by 66 points (114-48=66) that's 23 from us and 43 from them, so if the bottom three show the same form in the second half of the season I make that 2 wins and we should be safe!!!
UTC
Sunderland. 48
Hull 47
Swansea. 46
The best of the bottom 3 have decreased by 66 points (114-48=66) that's 23 from us and 43 from them, so if the bottom three show the same form in the second half of the season I make that 2 wins and we should be safe!!!
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Aggis' link from post 1.
Aggis' link from post 1.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
i've tried to understand this for 3 seasons and never can (even though I read all the how to's you post), which is weird because I do in baseball!
So going on the current link, am I right in saying that if we get 48 points we are guaranteed to be ahead of Sunderland?
So going on the current link, am I right in saying that if we get 48 points we are guaranteed to be ahead of Sunderland?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
CharlieinNewMexico wrote:i've tried to understand this for 3 seasons and never can (even though I read all the how to's you post), which is weird because I do in baseball!
So going on the current link, am I right in saying that if we get 48 points we are guaranteed to be ahead of Sunderland?
If we get another 48 points (as in finish with 71 points) - this goes down by a maximum of 6 points per game (If we win and they lose)
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Bump
UTC
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Week 20 now snapshotted
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Interesting. Shows how the form of the bottom five has tailed off lately as their 10 game projections are higher than their six game.
Shows how well we've done lately too
Shows how well we've done lately too
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
So, it looks like over the course of the last five games, certainly, and averaged over the last 10 games, the magic numbers drop by just over 3 points per game for us against those in the bottom 3 in the table.
If things continue in the same vein for the rest of the season, then it looks like we should be safe after game 35.
Here's hoping...but might be a useful indicator to see if we keep this 3 points per game drop for those sad enough to be interested, like me!
If things continue in the same vein for the rest of the season, then it looks like we should be safe after game 35.
Here's hoping...but might be a useful indicator to see if we keep this 3 points per game drop for those sad enough to be interested, like me!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
The current table after another successful weekend.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Over the past 6 matches we've only affected the magic numbers by 9 points. The rest, 15 points in the case of the bottom 3, have been through their results. Looking at their next 6 or so fixtures, and if we manage another 9 points out of our next 6 matches, we could see their numbers down to the mid teens. That would be 8 matches left. It's hard to see where their points are going to come from.
UTC
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
We've won three so another two wins and we'll not be far off.Spijed wrote:We are certainly capable of getting 5 wins out of our remaining 10 home matches. That leaves one extra win and a few draws.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Next 6 matches for the bottom teams
Hull
Chelsea-away
Man Utd -away
Liverpool -home
Arsenal- away
Burnley - home
Leicester - away
Swansea
Liverpool - away
Southampton - home
Man City - away
Leicester - home
Chelsea - away
Burnley - home
Sunderland
West Brom -away
Spurs - home
Palace - away
Southampton - home
Everton -away
Man City - home
Boro - away
7th match Burnley home
If we lose against Hull and they don't win any of the other 5 their magic number will be down to 25 and that is with us losing the next 6 matches. Should we pick up 2 wins and beat them they will be down to 13 with 10 match still to play.
Let's say Swansea win three including against us and we lose all 6 their magic number will be down to 31. However should we pick up 2 wins and beat them, assuming they win 2,their magic number will be down to 19.
I can see Sunderland only winning one of their next 6, so if we lose our next 6 their magic number will be 25. If we've won just 2 it will be down to 19 with their next match against us and only 9 matches left after that.
I think if we manage to beat these three and win one more we'll be safe with Up to 6 matches left.
Happy days.
UTC
Hull
Chelsea-away
Man Utd -away
Liverpool -home
Arsenal- away
Burnley - home
Leicester - away
Swansea
Liverpool - away
Southampton - home
Man City - away
Leicester - home
Chelsea - away
Burnley - home
Sunderland
West Brom -away
Spurs - home
Palace - away
Southampton - home
Everton -away
Man City - home
Boro - away
7th match Burnley home
If we lose against Hull and they don't win any of the other 5 their magic number will be down to 25 and that is with us losing the next 6 matches. Should we pick up 2 wins and beat them they will be down to 13 with 10 match still to play.
Let's say Swansea win three including against us and we lose all 6 their magic number will be down to 31. However should we pick up 2 wins and beat them, assuming they win 2,their magic number will be down to 19.
I can see Sunderland only winning one of their next 6, so if we lose our next 6 their magic number will be 25. If we've won just 2 it will be down to 19 with their next match against us and only 9 matches left after that.
I think if we manage to beat these three and win one more we'll be safe with Up to 6 matches left.
Happy days.
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Hull are in serious trouble with those fixtures.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Crystal Palace
Everton - home
Bournemouth - away
Sunderland - home
Stoke - away
Boro - home
West Brom - away
Whilst these look easier they will, if they win, be reducing the other teams magic number.
Middlesbrough
West Ham - home
West Brom - home
Spurs - away
Everton - home
Palace - away
Stoke - away
Again easier but will be reducing those below us if they win.
Leicester
Southampton- away
Burnley - away
Man Utd - home
Swansea - away
Liverpool - home ( after a midweek trip to Sevilla )
Hull - home
If we can pick 3 points up against them they would be doing us a favour if they beat Swansea and Hull. Can't see them picking many more points up in the other 3 matches.
UTC
Everton - home
Bournemouth - away
Sunderland - home
Stoke - away
Boro - home
West Brom - away
Whilst these look easier they will, if they win, be reducing the other teams magic number.
Middlesbrough
West Ham - home
West Brom - home
Spurs - away
Everton - home
Palace - away
Stoke - away
Again easier but will be reducing those below us if they win.
Leicester
Southampton- away
Burnley - away
Man Utd - home
Swansea - away
Liverpool - home ( after a midweek trip to Sevilla )
Hull - home
If we can pick 3 points up against them they would be doing us a favour if they beat Swansea and Hull. Can't see them picking many more points up in the other 3 matches.
UTC