Three Tier Lockdown

[DCWat]

But they are the least likely to obey the orders, as has been made clear over the last few weeks.

To be fair, I’ve seen plenty of over thirties, forties and fifties ignoring rules. When the 10pm rule came into play, there was footage on the local news which showed everyone partying in the streets with drinks, in York. I’d expected it to be all younger people, but there were loads of older people at it.

I think the issue is individuals of all ages. Some 18 year olds are being sensible, others not. Just as some 60 year olds are being sensible, others not.

They need to get numbers in control ahead of Christmas because there’ll be far more people willing to break rules at that time of year, just as we saw in some areas with Eid.

[Boss Hogg]

Tomorrow we can all thank the people that have been filling up the beaches, had to have a summer holiday abroad when it clearly wasn’t safe and for filling up pubs. The selfish have now made it much harder for the selfless.

[evensteadiereddie]

The beaches I've visited or seen were perfectly safe and I've been into a lot of pubs, all of which have taken precautions to ridiculous levels.
Don't believe everything you read.

[Boss Hogg]

How surprising

[BigRedrose]

The average age of the patients I’m taking into ICU is about 50. Once intubated the chance of survival remains about 50:50.

Is this figure correct? Are you saying half the patients you are seeing in intensive care (WITH AN AVERAGE AGE OF 50) are not surviving? That figure seems extremely high for such a relatively young age bracket.

[Swizzlestick]

Those people ‘filling up pubs’ have probably kept the hospitality industry going. Indeed they were encouraged to for a month. I doubt you’ll find a more Covid safe environment than a pub these days.

[Boss Hogg]

Those people ‘filling up pubs’ have probably kept the hospitality industry going. Indeed they were encouraged to for a month. I doubt you’ll find a more Covid safe environment than a pub these days.

Some pubs are trying very hard but many people are just not keeping enough distance from other people. Too big a risk.

[CombatClaret]

Just on your view of wearing masks I've become particularly chesty around times of wearing a mask, my personal feeling regarding the mask is that 12 months down the line there'll be horrendous issues with this, we'll have a nation of people presenting with chesty /asthma type problems...

Surgeons, nail technicians, painters, heavy industry etc.

All these jobs require regular wearing of masks for long periods and there no evidence of increased rates of respiratory problems in these professions with decades of data.
Mask wearing isn't new, it's just new to the general population in general. It's a minor inconvenience.

[BigRedrose]

Tomorrow we can all thank the people that have been filling up the beaches, had to have a summer holiday abroad when it clearly wasn’t safe and for filling up pubs. The selfish have now made it much harder for the selfless.

I've done all these things over the last few months BH, strictly within the guidance available at the time. I can't see how I've made it much harder for anyone else. The pubs that have flouted the laws have been rightly closed down, (including at least one in Burnley). In my experience the overwhelming majority of pubs I've visited or come across are adhering meticulously to the law.

[Swizzlestick]

Frankly I think shutting pubs will exacerbate the problem if anything.

[FactualFrank]

I've done all these things over the last few months BH, strictly within the guidance available at the time. I can't see how I've made it much harder for anyone else. The pubs that have flouted the laws have been rightly closed down, (including at least one in Burnley). In my experience the overwhelming majority of pubs I've visited or come across are adhering meticulously to the law.

That, of course, doesn't mean other pubs are doing everything right. There's a Brewers Fayre place near me that have everything set up spot on. For me, I actually prefer it when you go to your seat and they come to you.

There's other pubs I've been into where it's obvious that things aren't ran properly. Some are, some aren't. Because one person goes into a few pubs and everything is ran smoothly, in no way says they all are.

Nearly third of UK coronavirus cases spread through pubs and restaurants, minister says
Evidence presented to MPs shows hospitality is single biggest spreader of infection, warns Nadhim Zahawi

A third of all UK coronavirus infections are spreading through pubs and restaurants, business minister Nadhim Zahawi has said.

Some 30 per cent of all Covid-19 cases are being contracted by people visiting such venues according to evidence presented to MPs by Chris Whitty, he told the BBC on Friday morning.

"The evidence that Chris Whitty shared with my colleagues, northern MPs, yesterday, does demonstrate that between restaurants, bars and cafes about 30 per cent of the infections are coming through that hospitality, social interactions, if I can describe it as such,” he said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 04636.html

Pubs and restaurants: do scientists think Covid closures and curfews work?

Are pubs and restaurants important in the spread of Covid-19?

Outbreaks often begin in crowded indoor settings, such as cruise ships, conferences, bars and restaurants, with transmission then occurring beyond that, for example, in households. That’s according to studies cited by Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton.

Prof Linda Bauld, a public health expert at the University of Edinburgh, agreed, noting that contact tracing data from Aberdeen, where a local lockdown was imposed for three weeks in August, showed that the outbreak was triggered by a small number of infectious people entering hospitality venues.

“The idea with restricting access to pubs or restaurants, or closing them altogether, is that we can break the chain of transmission, reduce the number of super-spreading events, and then that should have a decent impact in terms of lowering new outbreaks and therefore onward transmission,” said Head.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... work-virus

But then of course, you read conflicting reports that pubs count for as little as 5% of cases.

[SingaporeClarets]

If bars and restaurants are not a significant cause for the spread then what is?

The tooth fairy going from house to house?

Still to hear a convincing argument for another reason why the virus is spreading?

Public Transport? Then what's the answer, increase the capacity, by how much, do we even have the vehicles and trains to meet that capacity? Or close public transport? Then how do essential workers get to work?

University settings? Maybe but that will be negligible in Burnley.

Lack of effective quarantine for returning travellers? Should travellers be paying 150 a night for 14 days to stay in a hotel room that they can't leave to prevent imported cases.

Any other reasons? What are they and what are the reasonable steps to take to manage them.

[Wellsy1882]

Tomorrow we can all thank the people that have been filling up the beaches, had to have a summer holiday abroad when it clearly wasn’t safe and for filling up pubs. The selfish have now made it much harder for the selfless.

I went to greece so **** everyone else
Thats all that mattered to me. A hol

[BigRedrose]

If bars and restaurants are not a significant cause for the spread then what is?

The tooth fairy going from house to house?

Still to hear a convincing argument for another reason why the virus is spreading?

Public Transport? Then what's the answer, increase the capacity, by how much, do we even have the vehicles and trains to meet that capacity? Or close public transport? Then how do essential workers get to work?

University settings? Maybe but that will be negligible in Burnley.

Lack of effective quarantine for returning travellers? Should travellers be paying 150 a night for 14 days to stay in a hotel room that they can't leave to prevent imported cases.

Any other reasons? What are they and what are the reasonable steps to take to manage them.

The latest steep rise in infections coincides with the start of the new term in schools, colleges and universities. Why would that factor be 'negiligable' in Burnley when we have a university?

[Grumps]

The latest steep rise in infections coincides with the start of the new term in schools, colleges and universities. Why would that factor be 'negiligable' in Burnley when we have a university?

And lots of people travel on a daily basis to educational centres in blackburn and Preston, from Burnley.

[Elizabeth]

I’ve said it a million times , keep anyone under 40 indoors and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

[FactualFrank]

I’ve said it a million times , keep anyone under 40 indoors and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

Love it

[Rileybobs]

If bars and restaurants are not a significant cause for the spread then what is?

The tooth fairy going from house to house?

Still to hear a convincing argument for another reason why the virus is spreading?

Erm, schools?

[BigRedrose]

And lots of people travel on a daily basis to educational centres in blackburn and Preston, from Burnley.

Exactly Grumps, and surely a major factor in the current rate of infections.

[Bosscat]

I’ve said it a million times , keep anyone under 40 indoors and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

Just what we said in the pub on Friday

[Elizabeth]

Thanks Frank, of course I’ve got my tongue firmly in my cheek buts it’s driving us all mad. I wonder if Wellsy isolated when he came back from his great Greek holiday ?

[Rileybobs]

Thanks Frank, of course I’ve got my tongue firmly in my cheek buts it’s driving us all mad. I wonder if Wellsy isolated when he came back from his great Greek holiday ?

You don’t need to isolate if you travel from mainland Greece.

[Elizabeth]

Is that where he was. Another thing for us all to work out

[Swizzlestick]

If bars and restaurants are not a significant cause for the spread then what is?

The tooth fairy going from house to house?

Still to hear a convincing argument for another reason why the virus is spreading?

Public Transport? Then what's the answer, increase the capacity, by how much, do we even have the vehicles and trains to meet that capacity? Or close public transport? Then how do essential workers get to work?

University settings? Maybe but that will be negligible in Burnley.

Lack of effective quarantine for returning travellers? Should travellers be paying 150 a night for 14 days to stay in a hotel room that they can't leave to prevent imported cases.

Any other reasons? What are they and what are the reasonable steps to take to manage them.

Quite bizarre that in your rather strident post you neglect to mention the reopening of schools which (and I’m no virologist admittedly) you’d imagine would be highly likely to contribute to the spread of a virus. The effect of students would be anything but negligible in Burnley considering a satellite of UCLAN is based there now.

I think if there are shutting pubs tomorrow, it’s time to see the science and evidence behind it, because the graphs I’ve seen are showing the greatest spread is household based and hospitality causes are low. Closing pubs just drives people other people’s houses which is surely a recipe for disaster?

I don’t know what the answer is. Mask wearing could maybe be extended to all workplaces for a kick off. And getting on top of an effective test and trace system of course.

[alwaysaclaret]

Surgeons, nail technicians, painters, heavy industry etc.

All these jobs require regular wearing of masks for long periods and there no evidence of increased rates of respiratory problems in these professions with decades of data.
Mask wearing isn't new, it's just new to the general population in general. It's a minor inconvenience.

OK so may be I'll see my gp and find out what's going on, oh sorry forgot, can't do that gp's are closed, but before I go any further I did get tested last week, it was negative, but I was asked to do one to receive cortisone injections. But I assure you I am having issues wearing a mask, it's not imaginary.

[Elizabeth]

I certainly don’t think pubs should be closed . They have made a tremendous effort to keep a safe business going.
Unfortunately they are a central p(o)int for the people who are not taking this serious. Take it away from them and the lazy arses will stay at home .
In case I give the impression I have it in for young people can I add I could cry for the young people in town starting in business and doing a great job

[FactualFrank]

I certainly don’t think pubs should be closed.
They have made a tremendous effort to keep a safe business going.
Unfortunately they are a central p(o)int for the people who are not taking this serious. Take it away from them and the lazy arses will stay at home.

I'd say pubs don't deserve to have to close. But as you say, the thickos in this country (and it's growing every year), need to stay at home.

[dsr]

Question: (regarding potential ban on travel outside a tier 3 area, lets assume Burnley becomes tier 3):

Do we agree that (say) a grandparent living in Burnley cannot drive to Whalley to see their grandkids, if the grandparents are living sensibly and staying away from the virus?

Do we agree that the same elderly person cannot drive to Mytton Fold where he has a golf membership, that being his only form of exercise and socialising?

It would seem to be to be repressive, and wrong. I would much prefer measures to tackle the spread which are more targeted, not just geographical broad brushes. But I’m interested in opinions.

I have a genuine view that this will see the PM forced from office. I think he has to be very careful.

I agree with most of this.

The big unseen problem with lockdown is what is happening to the elderly. There are a lot of old people with some form of dementia, mild or severe. But whether it's mild or severe, a universally recognised part of the treatment is that they should keep busy, keep meeting people, keep a routine, keep active. Sitting at home for a year, two years, whatever it takes, is going to do a lot of harm.

If we come out of this having saved 100,000 lives (unlikely) while 100,000 more people have forgotten their own names, have we really gained?

[SingaporeClarets]

Erm, schools?

So what's the answer then if schools are the biggest factor?

Close the schools and the kids are at home?

Then parents need to be at home to look after the kids ? Then should we lock down workplaces because parents won't be able to work?

I don't know the answers but if we are going to say it's the hospitality industry, selfish "adults" in their twenties or schools then what can we do ?

At school, are these kids washing their hands before and after they eat, are they regularly sanitising their hands when touching door handles in corridors, this virus does not just spread by people like the computer says no woman in little Britain coughing in your face. Are the older kids wearing masks or where appropriate face shields?

When all the kids went back to school in Singapore on a part time basis in June and full time from July there was not an upsurge in cases, mitigations do work, particularly knowing that the person near you in a public space has no obligation to declare he's just returned back from Paris or Madrid and could be an asymptomatic spreader.

Regarding improving testing capacity, this is vital not just for symptomatic cases but also for routine checks of people in high risk environments to eliminate asymptomatic spread. The government need to do more to increase capacity.

Maybe the answer is more routine testing of teachers and pupils. All teachers in Singapore had to pass a test before they could return to work and are randomly tested.

[Burnley1989]

I’m not that arsed about pubs from a personal point of view, a month off won’t kill me, feel for those that work in the sector though and hope they are supported.

I’ll be gutted if they shut gyms for a month though, it’s the only thing keeping me going at the minute, all the crap going on in the world can be forgotten about for an hour everyday. I can always go back to running outdoors but with winter around the corner it’s a pain.

Bit of a selfish post reading it back

[SingaporeClarets]

Just watching those 3 lads stuck in Italy on good morning britain.

Who has the right system for travellers, a key point which was missed during the whole segment...

The UK where you are supposed to quarantine for 14 days although nobody checks or if you're Kanye West then you don't need to bother at all

Or Italy where you are stuck in quarantine until you get 2 consecutive negative tests

?

[CrosspoolClarets]

We’ll find out later but it seems that Boris is worried about his own MPs causing him trouble so he wants local leaders to agree an approach with him that doesn’t need a Commons vote, so they are still negotiating. All the local leaders in the big cities tend to be Labour mayors, not sure about the towns. They may be a bit of politicising of all this.

On the face of it though I am reassured by the rumours I hear that the restrictions on movement and travel will be guidance not legally enforceable (unlike the closure of premises and the national “rule of six”). That would give me some reassurance to my concerns a bit higher up this thread (elderly etc), if people can choose to ignore the guidance IF they feel they are being safe and sensible (e.g. if somebody has been shielding and chooses to visit family, knowing there is no way they can be a carrier).

I don’t agree with shutting pubs but I can see the logic so I would roll with that one.

There will always be a few prats abusing it but that shouldn’t in itself cause the NHS to obliterate. The majority would respect the spirit of the guidance. The aim isn’t to reduce the virus to zero - I think we all know now that isn’t realistic. It’s to keep it at a steady level.

[mealdeal]

They've clearly leaked it all out over the weekend to gauge support. I think there will be watered down restrictions, with a lot of finger wagging. Rightly so.

[Burnley1989]

Im probably just being a bit thick so someone will need to help me with this one.

We went in to lockdown, numbers slowly started to drop
We lifted some restrictions, numbers started to rise

We are now looking like we will be going into a tougher set of restrictions
I expect over the next few months the number will fall

We will then lift restrictions in 3 months (for example)
The number will rise again over the next 3 months

Am I missing something? This virus isn't going anywhere and could well be here to stay, what state will the UK be in if this goes on for another 12 months? Its just difficult to take when there is no end in sight, what exactly is the end goal? We save some lifes, but for how long? I'm not saying I don't care about people dieing, I really do, I'm just unsure what exactly the plan is. I also understand its to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed, but how long can we put off operations and delay hospital appointments for.

[Goalposts]

Those people ‘filling up pubs’ have probably kept the hospitality industry going. Indeed they were encouraged to for a month. I doubt you’ll find a more Covid safe environment than a pub these days.

Utter blood

[Cirrus_Minor]

All of the worst affected areas have had repetitive ramp ups of local restrictions and none have worked, we have instead seen the increase of infections on a daily basis. I can't be optimistic about the latest thee tier restrictions either. This is all heading to another national lockdown that will probably be in place over Christmas. So get expect panic buys on turkeys and crackers in November.

[Goalposts]

Those people ‘filling up pubs’ have probably kept the hospitality industry going. Indeed they were encouraged to for a month. I doubt you’ll find a more Covid safe environment than a pub these days.

Meant to say utter ********, but spell check kicked in

[jrgbfc]

Im probably just being a bit thick so someone will need to help me with this one.

We went in to lockdown, numbers slowly started to drop
We lifted some restrictions, numbers started to rise

We are now looking like we will be going into a tougher set of restrictions
I expect over the next few months the number will fall

We will then lift restrictions in 3 months (for example)
The number will rise again over the next 3 months

Am I missing something? This virus isn't going anywhere and could well be here to stay, what state will the UK be in if this goes on for another 12 months? Its just difficult to take when there is no end in sight, what exactly is the end goal? We save some lifes, but for how long? I'm not saying I don't care about people dieing, I really do, I'm just unsure what exactly the plan is. I also understand its to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed, but how long can we put off operations and delay hospital appointments for.

They're pinning all their hopes on a vaccine. As you say, the lockdowns are just a delaying tactic. It isn't realistic to carry on much longer as we are, the economy is going to be absolutely destroyed.

[Goalposts]

Im probably just being a bit thick so someone will need to help me with this one.

We went in to lockdown, numbers slowly started to drop
We lifted some restrictions, numbers started to rise

We are now looking like we will be going into a tougher set of restrictions
I expect over the next few months the number will fall

We will then lift restrictions in 3 months (for example)
The number will rise again over the next 3 months

Am I missing something? This virus isn't going anywhere and could well be here to stay, what state will the UK be in if this goes on for another 12 months? Its just difficult to take when there is no end in sight, what exactly is the end goal? We save some lifes, but for how long? I'm not saying I don't care about people dieing, I really do, I'm just unsure what exactly the plan is. I also understand its to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed, but how long can we put off operations and delay hospital appointments for.

In a nutshell, that’s exactly it. There is no guarantee with a vaccine either. The reality will be that OAP will be at risk for a long time, and family structures will struggle to cope

[Goalposts]

Probably the best that we can hope for is that the infection stays highly transmutable but keeps lessening in impact as it mutates..

[CrosspoolClarets]

Pubs are certainly not as bad as households - table service only now, track and trace details provided, surfaces cleaned regularly, toilet protocols in place etc.

Can anyone see the same being consistently done in households, e.g. students houses with a dozen living in them?

The local leaders claim the data shows pubs aren’t the problem - I can believe that, though the few packed weekend ones need more stringent capacity limits probably.

[SingaporeClarets]

Do pubs that are open after 9pm do table service, how many people are at a table, how loudly are they talking to each other, how far away are they from each other and other tables?

[TVC15]

Frankly I think shutting pubs will exacerbate the problem if anything.

How ?
And talking specifically here around Covid rather than economy etc

[mdd2]

Van Tam has again re-iterated that young children pose a very low risk and although the risk rises with age it doesn't take off until the late teens so no need to close schools this time around as the data do not support it. They are an important source of flu-so we are now wanting to vaccinate them but not Covid-19

[FactualFrank]

Van Tam has again re-iterated that young children pose a very low risk and although the risk rises with age it doesn't take off until the late teens so no need to close schools this time around as the data do not support it. They are an important source of flu-so we are now wanting to vaccinate them but not Covid-19

Yeah I've just read that on the BBC site as I've been out.

He said:

On the infection rate in schools, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says: "Actually if you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to the age of 16."

He says the infection rate then picks up a bit in the 17 and 18 age bracket.

[Swizzlestick]

How ?
And talking specifically here around Covid rather than economy etc

Increases the likelihood of house to house interactions (particularly amongst students) which, I would imagine, is the key driver here. Removing safer environments will just drive those who are looking to flout the rules underground, if you will - or at least make it more likely. Like I say, very interested to see the science behind it.

[TVC15]

Increases the likelihood of house to house interactions (particularly amongst students) which, I would imagine, is the key driver here. Removing safer environments will just drive those who are looking to flout the rules underground, if you will - or at least make it more likely. Like I say, very interested to see the science behind it.

Problem is though that there are as we know many pubs that did not abide by the rules. If they all would have done the social distancing, table service, limiting numbers, household restrictions etc then I agree it would have only had a minimal impact on the Covid numbers.
But they didn’t all do that and we know it’s impossible to police and the breaking of the rules must have contributed to the increase.
Everybody is asking for evidence in the data but we already know it’s not tracked in this was and the data is not granular enough to show this. We also know that track and trace is also not sophisticated enough to do highlight this issue either.

There is also a lot of subjective decision making being made by owners of pubs - even those that are abiding by social distancing etc. One of the most popular and well run pubs in Burnley recently had a situation where they were called on a Monday / Tuesday to say that one of the people who had been in their pub the previous Friday night had tested positive for Covid over that weekend. They chose to do nothing about contacting other people in the pub. What is the point of track and trace ? The person who had Covid also had to contact people off his own back - there was no kind of protocol or procedure.

I know what you mean about pushing people to congregate indoors - but these are invariably the same people who ate breaking the rules anyway.
Closing pubs and restaurants won’t solve anything in isolation - you also need to take other measures to stop the other rule breaking.

Unfortunately I honestly think it’s a cultural thing in this country - and other countries like Italy, Germany, Spain etc just seem to treat it more seriously and take individual responsibility to do the right thing.

[Boss Hogg]

Do pubs that are open after 9pm do table service, how many people are at a table, how loudly are they talking to each other, how far away are they from each other and other tables?

This. Schools are essential and pubs aren’t. Pub and restaurant owners are making great efforts on the whole but it’s the thickos who don’t understand the 2 metre rule when they are sober let alone after having a few. You need a mask when in a shop but not in a pub when you are eating and drinking and talking and the virus is airborne. Right ok then.

[Rileybobs]

Do pubs that are open after 9pm do table service, how many people are at a table, how loudly are they talking to each other, how far away are they from each other and other tables?

The pubs that I’ve been to have been table service only. Either ordering by an app or the normal way. Maximum of 6 people to a table as per guidance. Tables well distanced.

Masks have to be worn when not seated ie. when entering the pub and when going to the toilet. Sign in on the NHS app and hand sanitise on entry. Staff wearing masks.

Not sure what the relevance of how loudly people are talking to each other is though.

[Rileybobs]

This. Schools are essential and pubs aren’t. Pub and restaurant owners are making great efforts on the whole but it’s the thickos who don’t understand the 2 metre rule when they are sober let alone after having a few. You need a mask when in a shop but not in a pub when you are eating and drinking and talking and the virus is airborne. Right ok then.

Probably because wearing a mask doesn’t really prevent you from shopping, but is a little difficult to do when eating or drinking.