Post
by KateR » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:16 am
I don't think there is a question anymore regarding EV's vs ICE, ICE days are numbered so it's just a question of when you will change and will you hold on long enough to change from ICE to FCEV, if you change during the next 10 years most/majority will change to EV during the next 7 years but if you wait 5 years you might be tempted to stick with your ICE and wait for the H2 refueling to catch up and miss the EV stepping stone.
However as always things take longer than expected and therefore the majority will switch to EV's by 2030, but it's a long way down the road, but even today for many the draw/calculations/costs means a switch from ICE to EV's during the next 2-3 years.
Battery enhancement will also play a part in this evolution of choices, personally I am hanging on to my ICE for now and not even considering anything during the next 5 years, then I will look more in depth. Personally for us cost is not the main determining factor, aesthetics very much are for now.
Demand for lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries will grow to more than 3,500 gigawatt hours (GWh) by 2030, from about 220 GWh in 2019. The structure of demand for Li-ion batteries is shifting rapidly, too. Batteries for consumer electronics could represent a much smaller part of total demand—about 2 percent in 2030, versus 18 percent today. Meanwhile, demand for Li-ion batteries for use in electric cars, trucks, and buses could rise to more than 85 percent of the total, from just 7 percent in 2020.7 Power storage for the electricity grid would account for 13 percent of demand for new batteries.
In this high-growth target scenario, 120 new large-scale factories would be needed to produce battery cells. The required raw-material inputs would increase up to 40 times, depending on the mineral used. Production of the active materials in battery cells would rise nearly 15-fold. In parallel, a more robust circular value chain, including a network of facilities to refurbish and recycle batteries, would have to expand by orders of magnitude.
Additionally charging can effect battery life but there is so little data around that today, but having to change your batteries will be worse than changing an engine in today's ICE world, not often required these days but in the past was not that uncommon.