Odds for Wednesday
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Odds for Wednesday
We are 11/4 to beat Aston Villa at home - I know they are having a decent season but they aren't that good are they?!
Re: Odds for Wednesday
Probably as much down to our profligacy in front of goal as anything. Only scored five goals in eight games at home in the league. Averaging a goal a game conceded at home. Villa's away form isn't too great away at present though. Lost two and drew one of their last three.
Stats don't account for everything though and we're on the back of two very good away wins. One would hope confidence is high and that can translate into chances taken.
Re: Odds for Wednesday
If we can improve our delivery to the forwards, I assume we'll start with Wood and Barnes we've a good chance of beating them. They're a good side and we'll have to be on top of our game.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
We are overpriced in almost every game...you just need to back us in every game to pretty much guarantee a return every season...simples
Nonsense odds in every sense...last 4 home for us reads 2w,1d,1l and last 4 away for them reads 1w,1d,2l....irrespective of who you have played to a certain extent the odds are nonsense.
The game should be priced at around 6/4 home win and around 7/4 away win...they shouldn’t be favourites for the game tbh..
Nonsense odds in every sense...last 4 home for us reads 2w,1d,1l and last 4 away for them reads 1w,1d,2l....irrespective of who you have played to a certain extent the odds are nonsense.
The game should be priced at around 6/4 home win and around 7/4 away win...they shouldn’t be favourites for the game tbh..
Last edited by Hibsclaret on Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
We should have beaten them last time and will beat them at home.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Back it
Re: Odds for Wednesday
How much have you made following this strategy?Hibsclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:13 amWe are overpriced in every game...you just need to back us in every game to pretty much guarantee a return every season...simples
Nonsense odds in every sense...last 4 home for us reads 2w,1d,1l and last 4 away for them reads 1w,1d,2l....irrespective of who you have played to a certain extent the odds are nonsense.
The game should be priced at around 6/4 home win and around 7/4 away win...they shouldn’t be favourites for the game tbh..
It does look like decent value for tomorrow's game to be fair. Don't think we should be anywhere near favourites though.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Looking for some value?
Draw Half-time / WBA Full-time (Currently trading around 60/1 on Betfair)
Crazy? Yes, but that's what happened last week at Anfield.
Draw Half-time / WBA Full-time (Currently trading around 60/1 on Betfair)
Crazy? Yes, but that's what happened last week at Anfield.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Good odds.RalphCoatesComb wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:21 amLooking for some value?
Draw Half-time / WBA Full-time (Currently trading around 60/1 on Betfair)
Crazy? Yes, but that's what happened last week at Anfield.
All this money we're saving, worth a tenner.
Re: Odds for Wednesday
We need to handle Grealish better than last time at the Turf!
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
I haven’t worked it out tbh but I am definitely in profit by backing us in the games we are overpriced the most. Did well on the top ten finish last season that’s for sure. I’ve taken 18/1 this year too tbh.
As for being anywhere near favourites it sounds like you agree with the bookies odds then...I think it is a very even game and the odds should reflect that. How many points did we finish above them just last season, for example. Whilst accepting they have improved, our form is better than theirs over the last 12 games too. There definitely is an argument for us to be favourites in a home game
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Buxtonclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:40 amGood odds.
All this money we're saving, worth a tenner.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
They beat Liverpool by a five goal margin Burnley only managed one, so obviously they are favourites
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Definitely worth a bet. Bet365 currently has 14/5 which is even (slightly) better than the 11/4. I'll have a bet at that, though the draw is 5/2 is also attractive.
Re: Odds for Wednesday
I thought you said every game, not just the ones we are overpriced the most.Hibsclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:24 amI haven’t worked it out tbh but I am definitely in profit by backing us in the games we are overpriced the most. Did well on the top ten finish last season that’s for sure. I’ve taken 18/1 this year too tbh.
As for being anywhere near favourites it sounds like you agree with the bookies odds then...I think it is a very even game and the odds should reflect that. How many points did we finish above them just last season, for example. Whilst accepting they have improved, our form is better than theirs over the last 12 games too. There definitely is an argument for us to be favourites in a home game
I don't quite agree with the bookies, as I said it looks like decent value this one, will probably stick a few quid on. I'd say we should be closer to 2/1 with Villa around 6/4.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
I said you just need to back every game not that I did do...
Not taken specifically we may not be overpriced against Sheff U for example but we are generally overpriced, meaning most matches. I bet if you backed us in every game you would more than break even, certainly backed not to lose if taken over the last 3 seasons...
There is even better value in the season end markets where we are always overpriced for a top half finish or not to be relegated. You can currently get a good price on us to finish above Palace, for example, at 6/4. Nice on a season ending acca...
Not taken specifically we may not be overpriced against Sheff U for example but we are generally overpriced, meaning most matches. I bet if you backed us in every game you would more than break even, certainly backed not to lose if taken over the last 3 seasons...
There is even better value in the season end markets where we are always overpriced for a top half finish or not to be relegated. You can currently get a good price on us to finish above Palace, for example, at 6/4. Nice on a season ending acca...
Re: Odds for Wednesday
Back the double chance, Burnley win or draw @ 5/6 on sky bet, good price at home.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
I might keep track of it for the rest of the season, would prove quite interesting.Hibsclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:19 pmI said you just need to back every game not that I did do...
Not taken specifically we may not be overpriced against Sheff U for example but we are generally overpriced, meaning most matches. I bet if you backed us in every game you would more than break even, certainly backed not to lose if taken over the last 3 seasons...
I'm sure there's somewhere you can find historical odds for games, but can't seem to find it with Google.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
The odds against Man City will be very interesting tbh because Man City will be some ridiculous odds on figure. You have to look at that and think yes we will likely lose but if you look at the home league games against them over the previous seasons in the league the sequence is as follows:
1 - 0
1 - 2
1 - 1
0 - 1
1 - 4
The best bet here will likely be Burnley +2 on the handicap. There is an argument that Pep wasn’t in charge for the first game of the sequence and that the cup games and away games have been omitted but when you add in our lack of goals conceded in recent games to the fact that they may be missing De Bruyne and Aguero, I think there will be good odds around the handicap market (unless they factor in too much around the Liverpool win).
I accept they usually stuff us but predominantly at the Etihad so will be interesting to see tbh. They were also brilliant tonight...but West Brom were horrendous
1 - 0
1 - 2
1 - 1
0 - 1
1 - 4
The best bet here will likely be Burnley +2 on the handicap. There is an argument that Pep wasn’t in charge for the first game of the sequence and that the cup games and away games have been omitted but when you add in our lack of goals conceded in recent games to the fact that they may be missing De Bruyne and Aguero, I think there will be good odds around the handicap market (unless they factor in too much around the Liverpool win).
I accept they usually stuff us but predominantly at the Etihad so will be interesting to see tbh. They were also brilliant tonight...but West Brom were horrendous
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Definitely 16/1 to win at Anfield last week (you could even gets 4s with a goal start)
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
We were 33/1 when we won at Stamford Bridge a couple of years ago. Bets for almost a whole season covered by the first win. Bookies continually overpriced us because we're unfashionable, small town, punching above our weight but we've proven over a sustained period that we can compete at this level. Personally I'm not complaining.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
So Chelsea, Liverpool and Man U away has paid for at least 2 full seasons for starters
Re: Odds for Wednesday
That doesn't seem right, best odds available for Sheff Utd to win at the Etihad this weekend are 25/1 and surely there's a bigger gap in quality there than there was for us at Chelsea.what_no_pies wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:18 amWe were 33/1 when we won at Stamford Bridge a couple of years ago.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
It is accurate...it was first game of the season away to the champions so we were even more overpriced than normal
Re: Odds for Wednesday
These links suggest not:Hibsclaret wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:56 pmIt is accurate...it was first game of the season away to the champions so we were even more overpriced than normal
https://news.paddypower.com/football/20 ... ster-city/
https://www.williamhillplc.com/newsmedi ... -goalfest/
And according to the Guardian we were 16/1 to win that game. I know they'll have used one particular bookie's odds, but I doubt any other would have been offering double.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ch-preview
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
It doesn’t take much to move the odds between 16/1 and 33/1. Not really any need to make out someone is telling porkys when they would have got that price. In the day or two before the game the odds could change as much as that easily in what is a 3 horse race with a long odds on favourite
Re: Odds for Wednesday
It does take a lot to move odds that much, especially on a football match. I'm not making out that they're telling porkies, I just think they're probably mistaken or it was some sort of special offer for new customers or something.
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
They’re not mistaken..I got something similar and was at the match I remember it clearly. If you think it does take a lot you clearly don’t understand odds on a 3 horse race.
The number of people with a home win on their accas for that game, the first of the season would have meant the bookies able to offer almost any price on a Burnley win. It is the perfect result for the bookies and they could probably have offered even bigger odds and guarantee a profit.
The number of people with a home win on their accas for that game, the first of the season would have meant the bookies able to offer almost any price on a Burnley win. It is the perfect result for the bookies and they could probably have offered even bigger odds and guarantee a profit.
Re: Odds for Wednesday
Group betting Burnley win 1-0,2-0 or 2-1 is 4-1
You'd think a win would be one of those 3 scorlines
You'd think a win would be one of those 3 scorlines
Re: Odds for Wednesday
This aged well
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Cheers Tripps
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
Wonder what price Burnley was at half time to win. ?
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Re: Odds for Wednesday
16-1.
Re: Odds for Wednesday
I got 18/5 just before kick off.
Running profit 3.6 points.
Running profit 3.6 points.