Energy Switch

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Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:03 pm

Marney&Mee wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:22 pm
Is that you Long Time Lurker?
I had a similar thought when I saw how much I'd written. ;)

Jakubclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:12 am

Millions of years ago our ancestors all managed to survive with inventive ways without gas & electric & survived I realise things have moved on in the modern world we live in now, but throwing on a fleece & going out with a chainsaw/axe & collecting some wood shouldn’t be beyond some people to be resourceful yourself & kinder to the planet.

SouthLondonexile
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by SouthLondonexile » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:51 am

I’ve changed to Octopus (last night).
On a different note but related to the current gas supply issue.
I do not accept that the current chaos is better than a state controlled energy supply.
In such an environment prices could be still be set by an independent regulator.
As a consumer we need certainty of supply at a reasonable cost.
The private sector was given a free hand by the Coalition for four years to raise prices with double figure increases.
This hit the poorest of families most. Disgraceful and unkind. So no the current system is broken. Also do not rely on the office of the energy ombudsman to provide help either, the system is rigged against the consumer.
Rant over. If you have been I thank you for listening!

dandeclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by dandeclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:52 am

Jakubclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:12 am
Millions of years ago our ancestors all managed to survive with inventive ways without gas & electric & survived I realise things have moved on in the modern world we live in now, but throwing on a fleece & going out with a chainsaw/axe & collecting some wood shouldn’t be beyond some people to be resourceful yourself & kinder to the planet.
:lol: :lol: :lol: Where do you start with this one?

beddie
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by beddie » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:54 am

“Too long, I know. But, as I said, I'm retired.”

Thanks Paul Waine, a very interesting read. I can see you you enjoyed getting back into work mode for a short period. :)
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kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:30 am

As I understand it with the Energy Price Cap in place companies are currently selling gas and electricity at a huge loss. The more customers that the existing suppliers take on from failing businesses the bigger their losses become also. No wonder the government is having to consider offering State backed loans to the larger companies to take on more customers.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:36 am

I suspect that once we get through this winter Ofgem will raise the Energy Price Cap allowing suppliers to increase their prices once more to a sustainable level.

Bordeauxclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:37 am

Jakubclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:12 am
Millions of years ago our ancestors all managed to survive with inventive ways without gas & electric & survived I realise things have moved on in the modern world we live in now, but throwing on a fleece & going out with a chainsaw/axe & collecting some wood shouldn’t be beyond some people to be resourceful yourself & kinder to the planet.
But without electric we wouldn’t be able to watch tv so how would we know who to vote for and have executed on your Saturday night tv programme?
Very short sighted of you Jakub, very short sighted.

claretonthecoast1882
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:43 am

dandeclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:52 am
:lol: :lol: :lol: Where do you start with this one?
Have you not seen the new range of equipment released by Sony, all tv + music streaming devices powered by burning wood. Comes with a guarantee it works in any cave as well.
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aggi
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by aggi » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:26 am

dandeclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:52 am
:lol: :lol: :lol: Where do you start with this one?
Have you not seen all those environmentalists gluing themselves to the motorway demanding that people get out there with a chainsaw and chop down some trees?
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Burnley Ace
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:34 pm

People’s Energy has stopped trading. I still owe them £50 as I left them last month!

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:24 pm

Seemingly the larger Energy suppliers seem happy to see the smaller operators going out of business leaving it to a handful of the largest operators to service the needs of customers. Safe in the knowledge that the Energy Price Cap will be uplifted by a further £280.00 from 1st April next year, and that prices will stabilise eventually, these operators will be left to "cash in for years to come" without the level of pricing competitiveness seen previously.

Darthlaw
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Darthlaw » Tue Sep 21, 2021 4:00 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:34 pm
People’s Energy has stopped trading. I still owe them £50 as I left them last month!
I was with Utility point for my Gas and they owed me £100. EDF have just e-mailed to say they're picking up the contract and my credit should be restored by them.

Just done a comparison to see if I can get cheaper than EDF's standard tariff and no-one is offering anything cheaper. Apparently utility firms arent really interested in taking on new customers, currently.

Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:55 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:33 pm
I really appreciate your detailed response to my post and we are fortunate enough to have such an esteemed expert as yourself commenting on this issue.

Whilst my knowledge of the energy industry is nowhere near as wide ranging as yours, I would like to take issue with your assertion that a state owned energy company would smother and inhibit all innovation in the green energy field.

Firstly if that were the case why would such a committed eco-warrior as Dale Vince be an advocate?

Secondly I do have some knowledge of green energy as I have some small trifling investments in waste conversion, tidal wave generation, pumped water schemes, and biomass energy. My experience is that these outfits struggle to raise capital and a huge amount of effort is expended on obtaining finance rather than developing the technology. State funding would smooth the path and also enable the tax payers to benefit from any successfully developed projects. Often their progress is hindered by cash flow.

Furthermore the state does develop technologies via their Catapult operations, the one to develop offshore technology is based in Blyth Northumberland. If market forces were so innovative and successful at this activity why does the Catapult exist?

Thirdly I also dealt with companies such as Vestas the Danish wind turbine manufacturers sadly they pulled out of their Uk plant on the IoW some years ago. Denmark are one of the countries leading the way in developing renewables and undergoing a massive switch from fossil fuels to renewables. In 2019 80% of their energy came from renewables. Admittedly I do not know a lot about the structure of the Danish Energy sector but from what I can make out the distribution network is state owned and the biggest company in the sector is DONG which I understand is 50% state owned. So does that square with your assertion that state ownership stifles innovation?

I know that EDF is the French state owned power generator and as you say a huge amount of French electricity is nuclear, however their tentacles have stretched over here to the UK and we buy a lot of French energy via the Interconnector so it is some what ironic that the free market has allowed a state owned foreign organisation impinge on the UK energy market? Not sure how strong they are on innovation in the renewables sector.
OK, another go at responding to some of your question. I typed a response last night then when I tried to submit I'd already been logged out. So, this time it may be split into 2 or 3 posts.

I started by responding to your flattery "esteemed expert" and promised that wins you no debates...

So, what is Dale Vince/Ecotricity arguing for? Yes, a committed "eco-warrior" perhaps...? Interesting story and been very successful. But, he'd have never got anywhere back then if all generation was still run by a state owned CEGB. Ecotricity own a number of their own wind turbines. Vince is also trying to buy another of the green energy firms, Good Energy - I also did business with Good Energy in early 2000s. from what I understand, Good Energy don't want to be owned by Vince/Ecotricity. I'm not sure where Vince's business instincts fit with his "eco-warrior" image. As for transmission and distribution, shared services for all gas/electricity generation and energy and supply companies and heavily regulated - but also maintained as separate operators so that the best practices of the best cab be used by the regulator (and their major customers) to encourage/force the best out of all the others. Least, that's the theory of the regulatory model.

Sounds like you have an interesting portfolio. Are any of them already generating? Is the technology new or already proven? I can understand projects aiming to use unproven technology will often find it difficult to raise finance, particularly if they are looking for debt or can't achieve the returns (or scale) that equity would require. How's the tidal power looking? It will be great if someone can demonstrate long-life and reliable tidal power.

Catapults: yes, interesting, though aren't these mainly about facilitating, linking and co-operating in the research and development? Someone I used to work with has a role in the Energy Catapult. Be great if they have some solid success stories to tell.

to be continued...

Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:19 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:33 pm

Furthermore the state does develop technologies via their Catapult operations, the one to develop offshore technology is based in Blyth Northumberland. If market forces were so innovative and successful at this activity why does the Catapult exist?

Thirdly I also dealt with companies such as Vestas the Danish wind turbine manufacturers sadly they pulled out of their Uk plant on the IoW some years ago. Denmark are one of the countries leading the way in developing renewables and undergoing a massive switch from fossil fuels to renewables. In 2019 80% of their energy came from renewables. Admittedly I do not know a lot about the structure of the Danish Energy sector but from what I can make out the distribution network is state owned and the biggest company in the sector is DONG which I understand is 50% state owned. So does that square with your assertion that state ownership stifles innovation?

I know that EDF is the French state owned power generator and as you say a huge amount of French electricity is nuclear, however their tentacles have stretched over here to the UK and we buy a lot of French energy via the Interconnector so it is some what ironic that the free market has allowed a state owned foreign organisation impinge on the UK energy market? Not sure how strong they are on innovation in the renewables sector.
Part 2 - picking up from Catapults. Back in the early 1980s I was involved with a project that the National Enterprise Board (NEB) had set up under the Callaghan Labour gov't. The NEB had introduced/selected/appointed an engineering firm owned by a textile business as the project lead on a specialist metals project, i.e. one which had nothing to do with textiles, but maybe strong project management skills could deliver the project. The project had been running for a couple of years when I got involved. Yes, things had gone wrong and the simple facts were that the engineering firm weren't up to the job. Around the same time, I had a colleague who had previously been brought in as part of a team cleaning up the mess left when De Lorean Motors went "belly up." That was another NEB sponsored project. Then in 1984, I was asked to carry out a review of a state owned ship building company on the Tees. In an effort to keep their business going they'd extended their services to offering engineering services to 3rd parties. The ship builder's offices were still in the 1920s. There was a total absence of investment in the firm. They closed down a year or two later...

These are just anecdotes. I could also add several stories about the things that have gone wrong with private sector firms. The key difference is that the profit motive and investors sort out the private sector firms that get things wrong. That's not often the case when the nationalised firm doesn't know if it is customer satisfaction or jobs or something else that is their priority - and it can change every 5 years as the politicians change.

I recall the story of Vestas closing a site on the Isle of Wight. Google tells me that was in 2009 because UK demand for their services had fallen. I'm guessing things have progressed a lot since then: a report in "On the Wight" from April this year is headlined: "Vestas intent UK expansion, creating 2,000 jobs in North East: ‘Potential’ expansion here too. If Vestas are successful in winning new contracts in the upcoming auction round, they say they want to expand their operations in the UK, including the Isle of Wight" In the body of the report mentions "20 years on IW" and "over 10,000 onshore and offshore blades since 2002." Is Vestas now owned by the Danish state? All I can see is that it was set up by a Danish engineer...

DONG changed its name to Ørsted A/S in 2017. From their website: "We develop, construct, own and operate offshore wind farms in Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, UK, USA and Taiwan with 6.8 GW of constructed capacity and a further 3.1 GW under construction."

It's great to see the success that both Vestas and Ørsted are achieving. I don't know the Danish state's ownership, if any, in Vestas. Does 50% ownership of Ørsted make the case for or against nationalisation or privatisation? I'd suggest it will depend on the owner's motives in their shareholding. Singapore is similarly successful with a number of their state owned businesses.

EdF bought what had been London Electricity, at the time a combined regional distribution and electricity supply company. EdF bought London Electric from a US utility company (I can't recall if there was also an earlier US owner). EdF bought in to the UK to get experience of a competitive energy market, as the EU was also looking to require all EU member states to open up their gas and power markets to competition. From memory, the French held out the longest against opening their home markets, but were happy to enter many of the markets that were open to competition around the world. In addition to EdF Energy which now owns the UK's nuclear generation fleet, plus is one of the big energy supply companies. EdF also set up EdF Trading in London. Quotes from website: "EDF Trading optimises assets for EDF and third party customers throughout the energy value chain in the electricity, natural gas, LNG, LPG, coal, freight and environmental products markets." "EDF Trading is a leading player across the global energy markets. It manages a portfolio of assets which give it the ability to source, supply, transport, store, blend, and convert physical commodities across the wholesale energy markets." When I was working I knew both EdF Energy and EdF Trading very well. Friends have worked at both companies. I doubt anyone could distinguish between EdF Trading and any "free market" commodity trading company most of the time. The same is probably true for EdF Energy - though we probably all want a conservative (small "c") approach to the operation of nuclear plants.

The France-Angleterre Interconnector flows power both ways. There are times when the UK is exporting to France. There are times power flows from France to the UK. It is all "market price" driven and benefits consumers in both systems. The challenge, always, as the number of wind turbines grows, is how strongly the wind is blowing... Nuclear plants are great at base load, i.e the power that is always needed day and night, 24 x 7. Then there is "mid-merit" and "peak load" - but, if the wind doesn't blow there's a big hole in the available power.

Enough. Too long, again.

CBT
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by CBT » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:15 pm

beddie wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:11 pm
We went with Avro a couple of months back, they were better at the time than Octopus.
I'm with avro also beddie since April I think
If they go under I take it we'll be switched to someone else paying upto £600 a year more?

Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:08 pm

CBT wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:15 pm
I'm with avro also beddie since April I think
If they go under I take it we'll be switched to someone else paying upto £600 a year more?
My understanding of the current rules is that a new supplier will have to step up and you will get the same deal as you currently have with avro. If you are fixed price, your deal will continue to the end of your fixed price deal. If you are variable, then you will continue on the variable rate. However, the cap on variable rate deals is already due to go up on 1st October and that doesn't take into account the current very high prices.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Darthlaw » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:21 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:08 pm
My understanding of the current rules is that a new supplier will have to step up and you will get the same deal as you currently have with avro. If you are fixed price, your deal will continue to the end of your fixed price deal. If you are variable, then you will continue on the variable rate. However, the cap on variable rate deals is already due to go up on 1st October and that doesn't take into account the current very high prices.
I had a fixed price gas with utility point, set to expire in January. I have been moved to EDF’s standard tariff as they were appointed by ofgem, after utility points collapse.

By my reckoning, my gas bills are set to increase by around 70% thanks to the great deal I was on vs the horrific price they are now. Luckily, my gas bill is relatively low, so I’ll be able to stand it but others won’t be so lucky.

CBT
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by CBT » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:22 pm

Cheers Paul Waine i hope that's right because I understand it that the new supplier can put us on whatever tarrif they want and we'll need to contact them for a better one which will be by now considerably higher than what we're on present
Confusing abit but hopefully gas prices stabilise
Can't see it before next spring/summer
Only hope is avro don't go bust for me I think

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:34 pm

It is widely predicted that Ofgem will increase the Energy Price Cap by as much as £280 next April as gas and electricity is currently being sold to customers at less than cost. The days of "Cheap" energy are over for the foreseeable future.

Jakubclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Jakubclaret » Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:33 am

kentonclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:34 pm
It is widely predicted that Ofgem will increase the Energy Price Cap by as much as £280 next April as gas and electricity is currently being sold to customers at less than cost. The days of "Cheap" energy are over for the foreseeable future.
It’s been creeping up slowly for quite awhile & probably hit a level where it will stabilise the consumers won’t have any other choice than to suck up the costs inflicted because near enough everybody will be charging roughly the same, you can reduce things by being independently resourceful, it’ll hit families more who are likely to be in the house for longer, single people who work long hours hardly at home it’s either here nor there.

Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:02 am

CBT wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:22 pm
Cheers Paul Waine i hope that's right because I understand it that the new supplier can put us on whatever tarrif they want and we'll need to contact them for a better one which will be by now considerably higher than what we're on present
Confusing abit but hopefully gas prices stabilise
Can't see it before next spring/summer
Only hope is avro don't go bust for me I think
Darthlaw wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:21 pm
I had a fixed price gas with utility point, set to expire in January. I have been moved to EDF’s standard tariff as they were appointed by ofgem, after utility points collapse.

By my reckoning, my gas bills are set to increase by around 70% thanks to the great deal I was on vs the horrific price they are now. Luckily, my gas bill is relatively low, so I’ll be able to stand it but others won’t be so lucky.
Hi CBT, sorry, bad news, perhaps. It appears I'm wrong that you keep your existing fixed price deal until it expires. Reading Darthlaw's post it appears that a default supplier can move you to their standard tariff. My comments were based on much of the media reporting, but I'm more inclined to believe someone who has direct experience...

Suppliers' standard tariffs are subject to the price cap - and these price caps are re-assessed every 6 months: April-Sept and Oct-March. The current price cap runs to the end of September. The new price cap starts in October - and this was announced in August - and was based on prices before then. I don't know the full mechanism for determining the price cap and how much it takes into account forward prices, i.e. the price for Oct21 to Mar22 if you were to buy this gas in July21, for example. (Forward prices are how suppliers set their fixed prices).

Of course, natgas prices have risen very significantly since the Oct-March cap was set. Suppliers will be reluctant to expand their customer numbers because they will lose money on every new customer they take on. I'd expect Ofgem and Government to find a "fudge" - and loans to the suppliers who take on the customers of failed suppliers sounds like the start of it. One way or another I'd expect Ofgem to do some "tinkering with their rules" that will allow the suppliers to pass on the costs of these loans to all their customers. Once more, the consumer pays.

I will be wearing an extra jumper when the weather cools.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:53 pm

It defies all logic that customers of the failed smaller energy firms would be able to retain their existing deals and enjoy cheap energy for the next 6 to 12 months. With hundreds of thousands of customers from these failing companies having to be bailed out by the larger energy firms the costs to them could be crippling without government assistance.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Darthlaw » Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:05 pm

kentonclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:53 pm
It defies all logic that customers of the failed smaller energy firms would be able to retain their existing deals and enjoy cheap energy for the next 6 to 12 months. With hundreds of thousands of customers from these failing companies having to be bailed out by the larger energy firms the costs to them could be crippling without government assistance.
Which is why that's not happening.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by TheOriginalLongsider » Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:33 pm

AVRO have gone bust now.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:43 pm

TheOriginalLongsider wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:33 pm
AVRO have gone bust now.

And Green, in total over 800k customers to be transferred to new suppliers.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by TheOriginalLongsider » Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:49 pm

And that can take months !

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Quickenthetempo » Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:12 pm

Money saving expert was saying Igloo going bust which is a big one.
Not one I have heard of though.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:21 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:12 pm
Money saving expert was saying Igloo going bust which is a big one.
Not one I have heard of though.

100k customers apparently so one of the smallest operators
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Burnley Ace
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Burnley Ace » Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:29 pm

Managemybills put a lot of customers into Green

Devils_Advocate
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Devils_Advocate » Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:44 pm

Whist it wouldn't be good for my career we would be better off re-nationalising the Energy industry.

Competition has grown over the last 10-15 years to such an extent that vulnerable, poor and elderly customers who have a high cost to serve value are being disenfranchised within the energy market.

Even the big companies who have license obligation to accept all customers are finding ways to legally degrade the service they provide and causing a lot of misery that could be avoided if it was state run.

Adequate access to Gas and Electricity is in my opinion far too much of a basic right to be exposed to the capitalist free market in the world we live in today. As a result I fear many families will go either hungry or cold this winter and many of our older generation will not make it at all.
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taio
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by taio » Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:16 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:12 pm
Money saving expert was saying Igloo going bust which is a big one.
Not one I have heard of though.
I switched to them recently and just before the energy crisis started.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by houseboy » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:04 am

We switched to Avro a few months ago. Wonder who we’ll wind up with?

beddie
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by beddie » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:14 am

Another here who signed up to Avro recently. :(

Hipper
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Hipper » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:03 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:44 pm
Whist it wouldn't be good for my career we would be better off re-nationalising the Energy industry.

Competition has grown over the last 10-15 years to such an extent that vulnerable, poor and elderly customers who have a high cost to serve value are being disenfranchised within the energy market.

Even the big companies who have license obligation to accept all customers are finding ways to legally degrade the service they provide and causing a lot of misery that could be avoided if it was state run.

Adequate access to Gas and Electricity is in my opinion far too much of a basic right to be exposed to the capitalist free market in the world we live in today. As a result I fear many families will go either hungry or cold this winter and many of our older generation will not make it at all.
You could of course say that for many industries.

It seems to me (from what I've read) that the fault is in the regulation of the business.

In any case this spike in gas prices is temporary surely so we will just ride the storm as we did with the oil price spike in 2011.

I would have thought it unlikely that 'vulnerable, poor and elderly customers' would have the sophistication to change accounts to these new energy companies, the ones that seem most vulnerable at the moment.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Devils_Advocate » Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:03 pm

Hipper wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:03 am
You could of course say that for many industries.

It seems to me (from what I've read) that the fault is in the regulation of the business.

In any case this spike in gas prices is temporary surely so we will just ride the storm as we did with the oil price spike in 2011.

I would have thought it unlikely that 'vulnerable, poor and elderly customers' would have the sophistication to change accounts to these new energy companies, the ones that seem most vulnerable at the moment.
Im just speaking about the Energy industry because I have first hand experience of nearly 20 years and have watched what has happened in that time. I am not just talking with regards to this very recent situation but about the way the industry has changed as a whole but exceptional cases like this really highlight the problem.

I think you have misunderstood what I was saying because it is nothing to do with the poor, vulnerable or elderlys preference or ability to change supply but what the impact of how the market has changed has affected them. 10 years ago there was a margin for Suppliers that was fed back into supporting the sort of customers I've mentioned who need a lot more tailoured and expensive services to support them and give them fair access to the market.

Competition where company's have been allowed in some areas to run at a loss has resulted in much harsher practices where suppliers are only interested in customers that are profitable and if they had their way would just refuse to supply the other customers. The big company's cant refuse so they just denigrate their service to a level to try and drive the customers elsewhere or just force them to have to cope with situations that is beyond them.

Now in a free capitalist market only wanting customers who are profitable is a perfectly acceptable and expected practice but as I said in my previous post in my opinion energy is a basic human right and need and therefore it shouldnt be left to the free market (especially when it is working so badly)

If you'd have asked me 10 years ago should the energy market be nationalised I would have been strongly opposed as there were some really good ethics and practices beyond the headline profits that used to make the papers but today I am 100% of the opinion that re-nationalisation is the right thing to do and would support it even though I would be a big loser financially
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Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:37 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:33 pm
I really appreciate your detailed response to my post and we are fortunate enough to have such an esteemed expert as yourself commenting on this issue.

Whilst my knowledge of the energy industry is nowhere near as wide ranging as yours, I would like to take issue with your assertion that a state owned energy company would smother and inhibit all innovation in the green energy field.

Firstly if that were the case why would such a committed eco-warrior as Dale Vince be an advocate?
Hi ClaretLoup, have you seen the report on Avro Energy and all the other companies that the two owners/directors had? To quote the Times: "Avro Energy sent money to firms run by owners."

My point: Ofgem licensed Avro as an energy supply company. It's reported that the owners of Avro hadn't put any of their own money into Avro. OK, we can assume that private companies will be run for the benefit of their owners, after all, that's what the profit motive is all about. However, it isn't positive that the state regulator deemed it appropriate that Avro Energy be granted an energy supply license with no capital backing, in a business where significant capital is required to manage the business risks.

Ofgem's rules, of course, spread all the costs of Avro's failure across all the energy consumers.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:35 pm

CBT wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:15 pm
I'm with avro also beddie since April I think
If they go under I take it we'll be switched to someone else paying upto £600 a year more?
Welcome to Octopus Energy - they are reported to be the successful bidder for Avro's 580,000 customers.

Octopus are separately reported in the Sunday Times (print edition) that Octopus is looking at bidding for Bulb - who are understood to be looking for capital injection. ST also mentions that Tokyo Gas took a small stake in Octopus last December.

I'm with Octopus. I get the sense it as a well run business and will be around at the end of this very necessary "shake out" and rationalisation of the retail energy supplier sector.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by beddie » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:35 pm

We’ve just had the email from Octopus saying that they’ll be our new supplier in place of Avro, I’m pleased with that and hopeful it won’t cost a lot more. So if you were previously with Avro watch out for the email.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:48 pm

beddie wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:35 pm
We’ve just had the email from Octopus saying that they’ll be our new supplier in place of Avro, I’m pleased with that and hopeful it won’t cost a lot more. So if you were previously with Avro watch out for the email.

All of the larger Energy suppliers (Octopus included) taking on hundreds of thousands of customers from failing firms are doing so at considerable cost to themselves since they will be selling gas and electricity to these customers at a loss (even though these customers will be paying more).

All of these larger companies are playing the long game knowing that the Energy Cap is due to be raised once more next April. Also they are hoping that after this upheaval customers will be a lot less willing to "shop around for better deals" and "switch" once the market stabilises, meaning that they have millions more customers on their books. The days of cheap energy are over.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by aggi » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:25 am

Octopus probably have pretty deep pockets. They're owned by a hefty investment fund so should be better placed to see out rough times. (Unless they start to get squashed in other areas.)

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Granny WeatherWax » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:30 am

beddie wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:35 pm
We’ve just had the email from Octopus saying that they’ll be our new supplier in place of Avro, I’m pleased with that and hopeful it won’t cost a lot more. So if you were previously with Avro watch out for the email.
My Avro payments were £73 a month, and i was £330 in credit. I expect Octopus (or any new supplier) will mean payments are going to be very close to the price cap based on our usage, although i'm not 100% how the price cap works, however would mean about £35-£40 extra per month.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:52 pm

kentonclaret wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:48 pm
All of the larger Energy suppliers (Octopus included) taking on hundreds of thousands of customers from failing firms are doing so at considerable cost to themselves since they will be selling gas and electricity to these customers at a loss (even though these customers will be paying more).

All of these larger companies are playing the long game knowing that the Energy Cap is due to be raised once more next April. Also they are hoping that after this upheaval customers will be a lot less willing to "shop around for better deals" and "switch" once the market stabilises, meaning that they have millions more customers on their books. The days of cheap energy are over.
Octopus (and others) will be comparing the loss they will suffer on taking on Avro's (and other failed energy suppliers) customers with the acquisition cost they incur when the pick up the customers from (i) price comparison sites and (ii) the cash back they give to existing customers and shared with the new customer when a new customer signs up. I think Octopus was paying £100 x 2 for recommendations from existing customers.

It may be that the industry will be hoping that Ofgem will take another look at how they set the cap, making it more reflective of the prices for the period of the cap. The cap that will come in in April 2022, for example, shouldn't be based on the gas prices that were in the market in the winter of 2021/22. Summer and winter demand are very obviously different. Customers buy a lot less and energy suppliers sell a lot less in summer than they do in winter.

Quote from Sunday Times: "For a typical dual-fuel bill, 34 per cent is the wholesale cost, 25 per cent network costs, 18.6 per cent operating costs and 15.3 per cent covers environmental and social costs."

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:40 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:52 pm
Octopus (and others) will be comparing the loss they will suffer on taking on Avro's (and other failed energy suppliers) customers with the acquisition cost they incur when the pick up the customers from (i) price comparison sites and (ii) the cash back they give to existing customers and shared with the new customer when a new customer signs up. I think Octopus was paying £100 x 2 for recommendations from existing customers.

It may be that the industry will be hoping that Ofgem will take another look at how they set the cap, making it more reflective of the prices for the period of the cap. The cap that will come in in April 2022, for example, shouldn't be based on the gas prices that were in the market in the winter of 2021/22. Summer and winter demand are very obviously different. Customers buy a lot less and energy suppliers sell a lot less in summer than they do in winter.

Quote from Sunday Times: "For a typical dual-fuel bill, 34 per cent is the wholesale cost, 25 per cent network costs, 18.6 per cent operating costs and 15.3 per cent covers environmental and social costs."
As I read the situation the losses that these larger Energy suppliers (including Octopus) suffer from taking on customers from failing businesses will be recovered from the end users through a levy.

To quote from an article on the BBC News website today "Millions of customers face being moved to higher tariffs from bigger suppliers and the cost those larger companies incur from taking on new customers will be added to all consumers bills through an industry-wide levy">
"The BBC has been told that Ministers believe the current system for managing the failure of Energy companies, which allows companies to recoup losses through the levy, is working satisfactorily - even though it will add costs to millions of customers' bills."

So, it is not just the higher fuel costs that are being passed on to the end-user but the cost of the failed businesses within the energy industry on top of that.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:56 pm

kentonclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:40 pm
As I read the situation the losses that these larger Energy suppliers (including Octopus) suffer from taking on customers from failing businesses will be recovered from the end users through a levy.

To quote from an article on the BBC News website today "Millions of customers face being moved to higher tariffs from bigger suppliers and the cost those larger companies incur from taking on new customers will be added to all consumers bills through an industry-wide levy">
"The BBC has been told that Ministers believe the current system for managing the failure of Energy companies, which allows companies to recoup losses through the levy, is working satisfactorily - even though it will add costs to millions of customers' bills."

So, it is not just the higher fuel costs that are being passed on to the end-user but the cost of the failed businesses within the energy industry on top of that.
Hi kenton, I'd not seen that the default suppliers are being protected against the difference between the cap and the cost of gas and power prices being above the cap. It's interesting if that is true, though it will be very difficult to determine what that cost actually is. Would it be measured by the cost of buying gas to hedge the anticipated volumes of gas the customers taken on would consume be on the day that the customers are taken on? would it be measured by the cost of the actual gas consumed when the winter is over? Or measured for the period until the new customer has entered into a new deal, either with their new default supplier or has chosen to leave their default supplier and go elsewhere? Then, what if the default energy supplier had been over-hedged for existing customers expected gas needs, so was already offsetting some potential losses by taking on the customers of the failed company(ies)? We all know the expression "how long is a piece of string." If Ofgem (gov't) plans to measure these costs from new customers it will be like trying to measure a whole basket of balls of string after a dozen kittens have stopped fighting over it. However, I wonder if they will just "make up a number" and someone wins and others lose.

It's also possible the BBC is getting mixed up with the existing levy that protects customer the credits that customers of the defaulting energy suppliers had with them when they defaulted. And, there are also some other "social" levies that all energy consumers pay towards. All part of the "15.3 per cent environmental and social costs" I quoted from Sunday Times.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:04 pm

aggi wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:25 am
Octopus probably have pretty deep pockets. They're owned by a hefty investment fund so should be better placed to see out rough times. (Unless they start to get squashed in other areas.)
Very interesting news re Octopus in the Guardian (US edition) this afternoon: "Octopus secures up to $600m from investment fund set up by Al Gore."
Value of UK energy firm, which has taken on customers from collapsed rivals, put at $4.6bn."

The article goes on to say "The price tag means Octopus, a renewable energy specialist launched in 2016, could be worth ore on paper than Centrica, the parent company of British Gas, by the time the investment is complete."

"Octopus said it would use the cash to build on its rapid growth, founded on the success of its green energy platform Kraken, software that helps manage power usage more efficiently. The platform is used to manage 17m energy accounts globally, including Octopus customers, as well as those of rival suppliers such as npower, E.ON and Good Energy."

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by OssyClaret » Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:24 pm

Just wanted to share my referral code for anyone thinking of switching to Octopus at this time. If you join using the link, we both get £50.

UTC

share.octopus.energy/new-gaur-446

share.octopus.energy/new-gaur-446

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretMov » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:16 pm

Or mine 😆🤣😂

share.octopus.energy/clean-newt-241

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretMov » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:21 pm


Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:00 am

OssyClaret wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:24 pm
Just wanted to share my referral code for anyone thinking of switching to Octopus at this time. If you join using the link, we both get £50.

UTC

share.octopus.energy/new-gaur-446

share.octopus.energy/new-gaur-446
ClaretMov wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:21 pm
A working link

https://share.octopus.energy/clean-newt-241
Hi Ossy and Mov, do you think Octopus is still trying to add new customers at the present time - and is still offering to pay out 2 x £50 for people signing up? The only sensible action given where gas and elec prices are at the moment is to stay with your existing supplier on whatever deal you had with them. The best you can get if you move is the capped standard variable rate - and Octopus (and all other energy suppliers) will be losing hundreds of pounds if anyone does sign up on that rate.

Anyone who is on a fixed rate and it's now coming to an end should stick on the capped rate with their supplier (it's the same rate with all suppliers).

Anyone who has a fixed rate and it's not coming to an end for a few more weeks/months (and longer) stick with it. It will be the best you can get.

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