Energy Switch

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kazza
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kazza » Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:55 pm

clarethomer wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:51 pm
There is a link on about the 3rd/4th post of this thread which if you click on it, there is the ability for £100 to be shared by you and me - so you get £50 free credit on your account. If you do use the referral link and would like me to donate that to the foodbank or something I am happy to do that too.
Yeah, Bulb did that when I joined through a friend.

Unless I'm missing something, Octopus are cheaper standing charges on both Electricity AND Has, AND, they are lower kWh.

So it's a case of seeing if there's even better than Octopus - there appears to be when I do bulk checks, such as Utility Warehouse. So long as it's cheaper and smooth to transfer, and I can move away again any time I like, that's what matters.

fanzone
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by fanzone » Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:56 pm

I'm going for octopus.

Scottish power emailed my to say there will be a rise in October, so after using an average of £84 per month combined gas and electric the best fixed rate deal they can offer me is £179 per month :o

Bosscat
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Bosscat » Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:59 pm

kazza wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:11 pm
Just bumping this. Bulb has once again emailed me to say prices are going up - they seem to be doing it often now and have become a bit of a joke...

"We're increasing our electricity unit rate from 17.714p to 19.720p per kWh and electricity standing charge from 30.756p to 31.170p per day.

We're increasing our gas unit rate from 3.234p to 3.982p per kWh and standing charge from 25.683p to 26.112p per day."


I've just checked Octopus and it seems cheaper on all 4 of the above... so makes sense to at least move to Octopus, right? Octopus doesn't have exit fees, although can't find if there's a minimum 12 month contract.

Anybody recently made the same move?
Deja vu here kazza ...

Not 5 minutes ago the wife came in saying she had just had an email from Bulb about prices rising ... we are at the moment in transition from Bulb to EDF Energy (a darned sight less than the quoted increases by Bulb I might add)

kazza
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kazza » Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:02 pm

fanzone wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:56 pm
I'm going for octopus.

Scottish power emailed my to say there will be a rise in October, so after using an average of £84 per month combined gas and electric the best fixed rate deal they can offer me is £179 per month :o
Ouch. Somebody said that they raise prices hoping you won't do anything about it - but doesn't that mean they raise prices per customer? I thought the 'we are raising our prices due to rising energy costs' meant it's for every customer (not on a fixed rate plan).

ClaretMov
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretMov » Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:40 pm

£50 credit when you switch to Octopus Energy https://share.octopus.energy/clean-newt ... SkVQcNCBZI

Peter Loo
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Peter Loo » Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:41 pm

kazza wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:51 pm
If they didn't keep putting the prices up as much as some do, then there'd be more room to take into account things like how Green the company is. But as they keep raising them, it's simply forcing people to care less about it.
As I say it's more than about money.

kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:25 pm

With the wholesale prices of gas and electricity going through the roof it is estimated that a whole host of the smaller energy companies will go bust before the end of this year. There were 70 energy companies trading at the start of 2021 but this could be drastically reduced to just 10 by the end of the year. According to the BBC News website if your current energy company ceases trading you will still continue to receive power but be switched automatically to one of the bigger suppliers. I am currently with Octopus so a question of wait and see in these volatile times.

beddie
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by beddie » Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:11 pm

We went with Avro a couple of months back, they were better at the time than Octopus.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by SalisburyClaret » Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:28 pm

I’m with Octopus- just offered me an increase of £159 per year - steer clear

kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:15 pm

Bulb the UK's 6th largest energy supplier seeking emergency funding to try and stay afloat according to BBC News page.

Jakubclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:28 pm

My variable tariff as gone up with British Gas even if you change eventually they’ll put the prices up you might save for a short period you’ll be back to square 1 sooner or later, I’ll just use everything less & I’d rather spend money on thermal vests & long johns & clothing to save on the GCH with cooking that’s different & a hard 1 to dodge.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:18 pm

My Octopus variable rate just went up by about 25%. The fixed rate on offer is even higher. Will check the switches but the prices need to all settle first, at present fixed rates are v high.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Quickenthetempo » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:27 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:18 pm
My Octopus variable rate just went up by about 25%. The fixed rate on offer is even higher. Will check the switches but the prices need to all settle first, at present fixed rates are v high.
Same here, they claim energy prices have gone up 212%.

I signed up to the variable one as you can leave for free anytime.
They have all gone up in price but if you spit something cheaper put it on here.

Papabendi
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Papabendi » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:54 am

Octopus is about to go bust.

kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:14 am

Papabendi wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:54 am
Octopus is about to go bust.

Bulb and Octopus both have around 1.5 million domestic energy customers so if both go bust that will be 3 million customers without an energy supplier.

Government will be forced to step in with emergency loans as it is already considering doing with the major suppliers of CO2. Empty supermarket shelves not a great look for those in power leading up to Christmas.

GaryClaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by GaryClaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:33 am

Papabendi wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:54 am
Octopus is about to go bust.
Where did you see that? Indications are that they should be fine. Though I know "he would say that" etc. https://twitter.com/g__j/status/1439276 ... 87969?s=20

Devils_Advocate
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:39 am

kentonclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:14 am
Bulb and Octopus both have around 1.5 million domestic energy customers so if both go bust that will be 3 million customers without an energy supplier.

Government will be forced to step in with emergency loans as it is already considering doing with the major suppliers of CO2. Empty supermarket shelves not a great look for those in power leading up to Christmas.
Whenever an energy supplier goes bust the remaining big companys are required to put in a tender for taking on their customer base and BEIS and Ofgem will select one of the tenders and all the customers will be transferred to that supplier.

This will be a more challenging process for companys the size of Bulb and Octopus and the govt may intervene but they dont have to and customers will not be left without an energy supplier no matter what happens

kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:56 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:39 am
Whenever an energy supplier goes bust the remaining big companys are required to put in a tender for taking on their customer base and BEIS and Ofgem will select one of the tenders and all the customers will be transferred to that supplier.

This will be a more challenging process for companys the size of Bulb and Octopus and the govt may intervene but they dont have to and customers will not be left without an energy supplier no matter what happens

I understand the process, but the fact that 70 energy suppliers at the start of 2021 were expected to be whittled down to just 10 by the end of the year means that an awful lot of customers will need to be put on new tariffs with different suppliers. Bulb and Octopus were both thought to be strong enough to be among the remaining 10 and I don't believe that Octopus will go under.

The fact that a fifth of Britain's nuclear power stations are currently offline undergoing maintenance doesn't help the situation.

The government is not obliged to step in to prop up the major suppliers of CO2 but will be forced to if it wants to avoid major disruption to the food supply chain already beset with transport issues etc.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by JohnMac » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:58 am

I signed up with lookaftermybills and the only thing on offer is about £30 a month on top of what we pay now. So they say stay with British Gas but my contract runs out soon and then you get switched to the Variable Standard Tarriff.
A long and bleak Winter beckons...

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:11 am

kentonclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:56 am
I understand the process, but the fact that 70 energy suppliers at the start of 2021 were expected to be whittled down to just 10 by the end of the year means that an awful lot of customers will need to be put on new tariffs with different suppliers. Bulb and Octopus were both thought to be strong enough to be among the remaining 10 and I don't believe that Octopus will go under.

The fact that a fifth of Britain's nuclear power stations are currently offline undergoing maintenance doesn't help the situation.

The government is not obliged to step in to prop up the major suppliers of CO2 but will be forced to if it wants to avoid major disruption to the food supply chain already beset with transport issues etc.
I agree with you around the gravity of the situation and expect the govt to do something but there is no risk to any customers finding themselves without a supplier no matter how many suppliers go bust and no matter what the government do (or dont do)

Dy1geo
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Dy1geo » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:41 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:39 am
Whenever an energy supplier goes bust the remaining big companys are required to put in a tender for taking on their customer base and BEIS and Ofgem will select one of the tenders and all the customers will be transferred to that supplier.

This will be a more challenging process for companys the size of Bulb and Octopus and the govt may intervene but they dont have to and customers will not be left without an energy supplier no matter what happens
Been listening to an expert on BBC Five Live Wake up to Money and he said that is what happens in normal times, but we are not in normal times and he said it may be the case that none of the big suppliers tender for the customers of a bigger failed company as they are unprofitable many with credit balances that they would have to settle and as he said it would be unprecedented if that was to happen.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:55 am

Dy1geo wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:41 am
Been listening to an expert on BBC Five Live Wake up to Money and he said that is what happens in normal times, but we are not in normal times and he said it may be the case that none of the big suppliers tender for the customers of a bigger failed company as they are unprofitable many with credit balances that they would have to settle and as he said it would be unprecedented if that was to happen.
I've had some restricted internal industry information shared today that I cannot fully disclose but I can share what the view is with regards your point although I cannot add some of the context that support the view.

"Under the Supplier of last Resort regulations, Ofgem first offers retail companies to other suppliers – who take on all liabilities. In this case this is unlikely. Liabilities will be higher than customer value. If no one takes on this retail business, Ofgem will allocate the retail business to another supplier. Suppliers will then be able recover all additional costs pro-rata to the original supply licenses and this cost is added to the price cap in future periods."

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Quickenthetempo » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:05 pm

Has anyone requested money back from Octopus?

I have built up quite a surplus that they like you to have for winter bills. But it's probably best to reclaim now.

I can't seem to find a way of doing it on the website.

HahaYeah
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by HahaYeah » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:18 pm

Octopus will be fine.

casualclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by casualclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:31 pm

Had an email last week from my supplier Utility Point. They have gone out of business and l am to be appointed another supplier. Have been told to sit tight.

kazza
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kazza » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:34 pm

Whatever you do... DO NOT go with Bulb.

I'm moving away from them this month.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:40 pm

Is the Jimmy Mc stand sponsored by an Energy Company now?

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by dandeclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:46 pm

Anybody any ideas why the UK energy market seems to be collapsing? Double and more of existing costs seems to be the latest forecast...... a true winter of discontent ahead, with food supply issues, energy prices bursting inflation..... and no turkeys. There's an oft used quote about the last group and christmas....... rather apt at current times i'd say. Except obviously it's the equivalent of them voting for the trimmings and tinsel.....

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Quickenthetempo » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:51 pm

dandeclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:46 pm
Anybody any ideas why the UK energy market seems to be collapsing? Double and more of existing costs seems to be the latest forecast...... a true winter of discontent ahead, with food supply issues, energy prices bursting inflation..... and no turkeys. There's an oft used quote about the last group and christmas....... rather apt at current times i'd say. Except obviously it's the equivalent of them voting for the trimmings and tinsel.....
Someone mentioned 5 of our big power stations are out of commission for repairs.

We will probably invade another gas supplying country in the name of terrorism soon. Hang tight.

Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:12 pm

JohnMac wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:58 am
I signed up with lookaftermybills and the only thing on offer is about £30 a month on top of what we pay now. So they say stay with British Gas but my contract runs out soon and then you get switched to the Variable Standard Tarriff.
A long and bleak Winter beckons...
Variable tariff will be lowest available - because the cap was set based on prices earlier in the year. Of course, there will be losses for the energy suppliers. I'd expect the largest ones to be able to survive - but will still suffer losses. Large number of the small ones should never have been licensed to supply energy - they have always been too small to manage the price and volume risks that are a factor of the gas and elec supply business. Unfortunately, politicians have never taken the time to understand this.

For consumers, I recommend just watching what gas and elec you are using. The electricity supply issues are short term, the nuclear generators maintenance will be completed, the wind turbines will start to turn again, and later the interconnector with France will be operational again. Similarly, global gas supplies will re-balance in a few months, though prices may remain high through winter in the northern hemisphere.
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Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:28 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:05 pm
Has anyone requested money back from Octopus?

I have built up quite a surplus that they like you to have for winter bills. But it's probably best to reclaim now.

I can't seem to find a way of doing it on the website.
I'm also with Octopus. I'm also in credit, just as I'd expect to be at the end of the summer.

I don't see any reason to be concerned about Octopus. They are closer to being one of the "big" companies than one of the 50 or so that are likely to fail. Octopus speak of having hedged their gas and elec needs. The small companies, for the most part, don't have the investment to be able to hedge - which is one of the reasons, in my experience, why they should not have been licensed in the first place.

Industry rules: If you gas/elec supplier does fail and you are in credit when they fail the money you are owed is covered by all the big suppliers i.e. effectively by the customers of the big suppliers.

I'm retired now. For 15-20 years I've been in the UK gas and elec business. It's a business that has always been very challenging to make money in. You need the resources to manage the price volatility and the volume volatility as well as the resources to provide decent customer service. Very few have all these skills and experiences. The government and Ofgem made big mistakes - I think it was 2016 - in inviting all these small firms to set up as energy suppliers.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by claretandy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:01 pm

dandeclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:46 pm
Anybody any ideas why the UK energy market seems to be collapsing? Double and more of existing costs seems to be the latest forecast...... a true winter of discontent ahead, with food supply issues, energy prices bursting inflation..... and no turkeys. There's an oft used quote about the last group and christmas....... rather apt at current times i'd say. Except obviously it's the equivalent of them voting for the trimmings and tinsel.....
Big 6 have the money to buy for the long term, they have to pay green surcharges, smaller companies buy short term, don't have to pay surcharges.
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Devils_Advocate
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:13 pm

claretandy wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:01 pm
Big 6 have the money to buy for the long term, they have to pay green surcharges, smaller companies buy short term, don't have to pay surcharges.
Do you work for the BBC Andy?

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by claretandy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:19 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:13 pm
Do you work for the BBC Andy?
Just quoting what an expert was saying on 5live this morning.

Tall Paul
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Tall Paul » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:34 pm

Listening to experts these days, are we?

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by claretandy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:51 pm

Tall Paul wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:34 pm
Listening to experts these days, are we?
That depends whether they speak with forked tongue.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:54 pm

Jesus, the levels that people sink to keep believing eh?

Anyway, listening to the minister responsible for dealing with this and he's not very reassuring, while trying really hard to be reassuring

Ace, this winter is going to be no fun at all

Les Lawrence
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Les Lawrence » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:08 pm

I was with Utility Point,and have a £500 credit balance,will I ever get it back?

kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:21 pm

Les Lawrence wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:08 pm
I was with Utility Point,and have a £500 credit balance,will I ever get it back?

According to an article posted on the BBC Business News page discussing what will happen if your current Energy supplier goes bust and your account is transferred to a new provider "If you are in credit your money is protected and you'll be paid back."

Bosscat
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Bosscat » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:24 pm

Les Lawrence wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:08 pm
I was with Utility Point,and have a £500 credit balance,will I ever get it back?
We had the same a couple of years ago Les with "Economy Energy" they went belly up and we were transfered to OVO Energy ... we got our money back "eventually" took about 6 months but we were re-imbursed ...

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretLoup » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:37 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:12 pm
Variable tariff will be lowest available - because the cap was set based on prices earlier in the year. Of course, there will be losses for the energy suppliers. I'd expect the largest ones to be able to survive - but will still suffer losses. Large number of the small ones should never have been licensed to supply energy - they have always been too small to manage the price and volume risks that are a factor of the gas and elec supply business. Unfortunately, politicians have never taken the time to understand this.

Dale Vince of Ecotricity gave a very concise explanation of the current predicament re electricity prices on BBC R5 and predicted that there would be eventually about 10 suppliers left. He also explained that the hedging situation would decimate the small suppliers. He did also envisage a scenario were the existing suppliers might not be able to absorb up those customers left without a supplier. When pressed for an answer as to what would happen, he could not give one as the current situation of a price cap, rapidly escalating costs and large numbers of suppliers going bust was unprecedented. He also said that the wind had dropped over the summer affecting renewable supplies and that UK was extremely vulnerable to gas price fluctuation as our storage capacity is now only capable of storing 1% of demand.

So all things considered it is going to be a bumpy ride particularly if there is a cold winter.

He also expressed the view that the country would be far better off if energy generation and distribution were re-nationalised. I seem to remember in the old days you had one supplier so you didn’t have to waste hours shopping around and energy was priced at the cost required to generate it plus some extra for investment for new supply facilities. Additionally we did not have to rely on the Chinese and French for the finance and expertise to build and finance power stations by giving them an extremely generous guaranteed price.

I wonder what your view is on Dale Vince’s suggestion?

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Les Lawrence » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:37 pm

**** I was hoping for the money to help at Christmas,but maybe get it before next Summer holidays.Thanks for help

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretLoup » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:54 pm


Anyway, listening to the minister responsible for dealing with this and he's not very reassuring, while trying really hard to be reassuring.
The Minister also expressed the hope that there would still be lots of companies around to supply electricity as “ choice” is a great thing to have. Personally I would rather have secure eco friendly supplies rather than creating opportunities for a load of skimmers to make a quick buck out of what is an essential commodity for a civilised life.

kentonclaret
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:45 pm

If this crisis ends up with the UK having just a handful of Energy suppliers that will surely impact on the business of Comparison websites? No further need to "Go Compare."

70 energy suppliers at the start of 2021 predicted to fall to around 10 by the close of the year.

Paul Waine
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:20 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:37 pm
Dale Vince of Ecotricity gave a very concise explanation of the current predicament re electricity prices on BBC R5 and predicted that there would be eventually about 10 suppliers left. He also explained that the hedging situation would decimate the small suppliers. He did also envisage a scenario were the existing suppliers might not be able to absorb up those customers left without a supplier. When pressed for an answer as to what would happen, he could not give one as the current situation of a price cap, rapidly escalating costs and large numbers of suppliers going bust was unprecedented. He also said that the wind had dropped over the summer affecting renewable supplies and that UK was extremely vulnerable to gas price fluctuation as our storage capacity is now only capable of storing 1% of demand.

So all things considered it is going to be a bumpy ride particularly if there is a cold winter.

He also expressed the view that the country would be far better off if energy generation and distribution were re-nationalised. I seem to remember in the old days you had one supplier so you didn’t have to waste hours shopping around and energy was priced at the cost required to generate it plus some extra for investment for new supply facilities. Additionally we did not have to rely on the Chinese and French for the finance and expertise to build and finance power stations by giving them an extremely generous guaranteed price.

I wonder what your view is on Dale Vince’s suggestion?
Hi ClaretLoup,

As I posted above, I'm now retired. Approx 15 years of my career included experience in UK gas and elec markets.

I've met Dale Vince and did business with Ecotricity, his company - well before he invested in Forest Green.

He's right that small companies that aren't hedged will be "decimated" - though as "decimated" means 1 in 10 wiped out, he's wrong: it will be closer to 100%. But, these small, undercapitalised energy supply companies should never have been granted a license - only companies that had the resources, plus the skills and experience to run a successful combined price risk and volume risk hedging programme should be licensed. It's always been a "tough gig" to manage the volume risk - hedges are sold as fixed volumes, but energy suppliers sell to their customers with the right to consume all the gas and power they want/need. Logically a company would hedge for average or expected customer demand and, of course, a large part of demand is driven by the weather: colder than average we burn more gas and power, warmer than average and we burn less. A supplier that is out of balance with their hedges will lose on the volume risk. A supplier who has no hedges will lose heavily on price risk.

Most of the small suppliers were tempted into the market because they don't pay many of the "green levies" - so they had an inbuilt lower cost advantage - and, I don't think they pay any of the costs of guaranteeing customers who are in credit when their supplier goes bust. This is all part of the "political distortion" that the market needed more suppliers and that small suppliers would solve the problem of "lack of competitiveness." By my count, at least 30 small supply companies have already failed in the past 3-4 years. The rest have only been "winging it" until something a little bit bigger also took them out. Global gas prices, which are swinging because of covid-19 impacts, globally, looks like it will do it.

Maintenance is regularly carried out in summer, because demand is lower - we don't need to heat our homes and the days are longer. But, things can and often have impacted on maintenance programmes. Sometimes maintenance takes longer than planned or it was simply planned to take longer because it was expected that the wind (and solar) would meet most of power needs. But, the weather patterns resulted in the wind turbines not turning...

Little things, such as the France-Angleterre Interconnector fire happen from time to time. They don't usually matter. But, they do matter when other things are also already out of operation.

Centrica Gas Storage announced close down of Rough Gas Storage in 2017. This was the UK's only major gas storage facility, based on a depleted (southern) north sea gas field. I think the close down programme was supposed to run to this summer - though it may have closed earlier. Given the drive to de-carbonize the economy I doubt any serious consideration was given to investing in a new natgas storage facility. I'm sure the expected life would have been too short to make any economic sense. Depleted gas fields in north sea are more likely candidates for (i) carbon capture and storage and (ii) hydrogen storage. Both of these activities are in the future, rather than near term.

The whole "climate change" programme has had an impact in the UK gas and power markets since early 2000s. It will continue to have a growing impact in the years ahead. We should all expect the price we pay for heat (and cooling) and light to rise. These are the long term trends.

We should also expect that not everything will "go right" in the pursuit of a net-zero economy. Some programmes will fail, there will be wasted investments, many companies will go bust, many politicians will make the wrong decisions - and the electorate will often be "steadfast" in backing the ones that are making the biggest wrong decisions. (Wasn't it ever thus)?

Should the UK re-nationalise? I can't see that making things better. Governments are always great at making the worst choices. The old CEGB, National Grid, Regional Electricity Boards and British Gas monopolies were inefficient. The UK consumers and industries paid more than they needed to. If there's no profit motive then resources are wasted, new and better ways of doing things develop slowly, if at all. Customer prices will almost invariably be higher than they should be, in part because no one is incentivised to control costs and no one is rewarded for "selling" to customers, because the customers have either to buy from you at the price you decide - or find a substitute product or "do nothing" i.e. don't operate, close down or don't start-up.

UK power generation now includes wind, solar, biomass, hydro, energy from waste in addition to coal (to close in a couple of years), nuclear (but needing new plants as all the old ones retire) and natural gas (most being constructed by private owners). I doubt a state monopoly would have provided this broad range of generation capacity. I doubt a state monopoly would have provided any encouragement for Dale Vince, or similar, to develop a renewable energy generation and supply business.

Nuclear generation? I can't think of any private institutions that would invest in/back nuclear generation. The downsides are too heavily weighted against achieving the required return: Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island.... then there are the cost overruns on the EdF plant in Finland. But, nuclear is "zero carbon" when generating (though not zero-carbon in construction) and nuclear is reliable and predictable (when operated as designed) compared with wind and solar which is governed by uncontrollable weather patterns. France chose to focus on nuclear power generation when OPEC started controlling oil supplies - France didn't have the same coal reserves that the UK had and didn't have the oil and gas opportunities that the UK had in the north sea. So, France has majored in nuclear generation - I'm inclined to guess at a factor of 10 larger than the UK's nuclear generation fleet (without looking at google or elsewhere). China has developed it's nuclear generation capabilities as part of the state's political ambitions. It's way "beyond my pay grade" to know whether it's a "good idea" or a "strategic mistake" to depend on China for UK nuclear generators. Maybe there's a hint in AUKUS...

Of course, the state - in all countries and not just the UK - is heavily involved in the energy supply business. It's good that the state "sets the rules." We need to be clear that "carbon emissions" need to be cut and that means changing the way energy is transformed from the primary sources into consumable forms. As we know, in the coal and oil eras we weren't aware of the harms done by these transformations - in the earlier years, the benefits were greater - and, then we were probably slow to realise that balance was changing.

Let's summarise with a few bullets:

1) Energy markets too difficult for small companies - they should not have been licensed in the first place;
2) Wind turbines don't respond to consumer demand, so need back-up generation, but that is expensive, or need to be able to store when surplus (that is also expensive);
3) maintenance, always in summer when demand is low, but sometimes the demand isn't low in summer or other events disrupt the market;
4) nuclear, both good - zero-carbon and bad - risk rewards too far outside investors tolerance, so state supported only;
5) the state running monopolies is the worst of all choices, it will kill off all the innovation that is required to stand a chance to address climate change;
6) climate change requires (massive) transformation and disruption to existing industries and existing consumption patterns - the way we live now has to change - expect to have to pay the prices for these changes.

Too long, I know. But, as I said, I'm retired.
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by Marney&Mee » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:22 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:20 pm
Hi ClaretLoup,

As I posted above, I'm now retired. Approx 15 years of my career included experience in UK gas and elec markets.

I've met Dale Vince and did business with Ecotricity, his company - well before he invested in Forest Green.

He's right that small companies that aren't hedged will be "decimated" - though as "decimated" means 1 in 10 wiped out, he's wrong: it will be closer to 100%. But, these small, undercapitalised energy supply companies should never have been granted a license - only companies that had the resources, plus the skills and experience to run a successful combined price risk and volume risk hedging programme should be licensed. It's always been a "tough gig" to manage the volume risk - hedges are sold as fixed volumes, but energy suppliers sell to their customers with the right to consume all the gas and power they want/need. Logically a company would hedge for average or expected customer demand and, of course, a large part of demand is driven by the weather: colder than average we burn more gas and power, warmer than average and we burn less. A supplier that is out of balance with their hedges will lose on the volume risk. A supplier who has no hedges will lose heavily on price risk.

Most of the small suppliers were tempted into the market because they don't pay many of the "green levies" - so they had an inbuilt lower cost advantage - and, I don't think they pay any of the costs of guaranteeing customers who are in credit when their supplier goes bust. This is all part of the "political distortion" that the market needed more suppliers and that small suppliers would solve the problem of "lack of competitiveness." By my count, at least 30 small supply companies have already failed in the past 3-4 years. The rest have only been "winging it" until something a little bit bigger also took them out. Global gas prices, which are swinging because of covid-19 impacts, globally, looks like it will do it.

Maintenance is regularly carried out in summer, because demand is lower - we don't need to heat our homes and the days are longer. But, things can and often have impacted on maintenance programmes. Sometimes maintenance takes longer than planned or it was simply planned to take longer because it was expected that the wind (and solar) would meet most of power needs. But, the weather patterns resulted in the wind turbines not turning...

Little things, such as the France-Angleterre Interconnector fire happen from time to time. They don't usually matter. But, they do matter when other things are also already out of operation.

Centrica Gas Storage announced close down of Rough Gas Storage in 2017. This was the UK's only major gas storage facility, based on a depleted (southern) north sea gas field. I think the close down programme was supposed to run to this summer - though it may have closed earlier. Given the drive to de-carbonize the economy I doubt any serious consideration was given to investing in a new natgas storage facility. I'm sure the expected life would have been too short to make any economic sense. Depleted gas fields in north sea are more likely candidates for (i) carbon capture and storage and (ii) hydrogen storage. Both of these activities are in the future, rather than near term.

The whole "climate change" programme has had an impact in the UK gas and power markets since early 2000s. It will continue to have a growing impact in the years ahead. We should all expect the price we pay for heat (and cooling) and light to rise. These are the long term trends.

We should also expect that not everything will "go right" in the pursuit of a net-zero economy. Some programmes will fail, there will be wasted investments, many companies will go bust, many politicians will make the wrong decisions - and the electorate will often be "steadfast" in backing the ones that are making the biggest wrong decisions. (Wasn't it ever thus)?

Should the UK re-nationalise? I can't see that making things better. Governments are always great at making the worst choices. The old CEGB, National Grid, Regional Electricity Boards and British Gas monopolies were inefficient. The UK consumers and industries paid more than they needed to. If there's no profit motive then resources are wasted, new and better ways of doing things develop slowly, if at all. Customer prices will almost invariably be higher than they should be, in part because no one is incentivised to control costs and no one is rewarded for "selling" to customers, because the customers have either to buy from you at the price you decide - or find a substitute product or "do nothing" i.e. don't operate, close down or don't start-up.

UK power generation now includes wind, solar, biomass, hydro, energy from waste in addition to coal (to close in a couple of years), nuclear (but needing new plants as all the old ones retire) and natural gas (most being constructed by private owners). I doubt a state monopoly would have provided this broad range of generation capacity. I doubt a state monopoly would have provided any encouragement for Dale Vince, or similar, to develop a renewable energy generation and supply business.

Nuclear generation? I can't think of any private institutions that would invest in/back nuclear generation. The downsides are too heavily weighted against achieving the required return: Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island.... then there are the cost overruns on the EdF plant in Finland. But, nuclear is "zero carbon" when generating (though not zero-carbon in construction) and nuclear is reliable and predictable (when operated as designed) compared with wind and solar which is governed by uncontrollable weather patterns. France chose to focus on nuclear power generation when OPEC started controlling oil supplies - France didn't have the same coal reserves that the UK had and didn't have the oil and gas opportunities that the UK had in the north sea. So, France has majored in nuclear generation - I'm inclined to guess at a factor of 10 larger than the UK's nuclear generation fleet (without looking at google or elsewhere). China has developed it's nuclear generation capabilities as part of the state's political ambitions. It's way "beyond my pay grade" to know whether it's a "good idea" or a "strategic mistake" to depend on China for UK nuclear generators. Maybe there's a hint in AUKUS...

Of course, the state - in all countries and not just the UK - is heavily involved in the energy supply business. It's good that the state "sets the rules." We need to be clear that "carbon emissions" need to be cut and that means changing the way energy is transformed from the primary sources into consumable forms. As we know, in the coal and oil eras we weren't aware of the harms done by these transformations - in the earlier years, the benefits were greater - and, then we were probably slow to realise that balance was changing.

Let's summarise with a few bullets:

1) Energy markets too difficult for small companies - they should not have been licensed in the first place;
2) Wind turbines don't respond to consumer demand, so need back-up generation, but that is expensive, or need to be able to store when surplus (that is also expensive);
3) maintenance, always in summer when demand is low, but sometimes the demand isn't low in summer or other events disrupt the market;
4) nuclear, both good - zero-carbon and bad - risk rewards too far outside investors tolerance, so state supported only;
5) the state running monopolies is the worst of all choices, it will kill off all the innovation that is required to stand a chance to address climate change;
6) climate change requires (massive) transformation and disruption to existing industries and existing consumption patterns - the way we live now has to change - expect to have to pay the prices for these changes.

Too long, I know. But, as I said, I'm retired.
Is that you Long Time Lurker?
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ClaretLoup
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretLoup » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:33 pm

I really appreciate your detailed response to my post and we are fortunate enough to have such an esteemed expert as yourself commenting on this issue.

Whilst my knowledge of the energy industry is nowhere near as wide ranging as yours, I would like to take issue with your assertion that a state owned energy company would smother and inhibit all innovation in the green energy field.

Firstly if that were the case why would such a committed eco-warrior as Dale Vince be an advocate?

Secondly I do have some knowledge of green energy as I have some small trifling investments in waste conversion, tidal wave generation, pumped water schemes, and biomass energy. My experience is that these outfits struggle to raise capital and a huge amount of effort is expended on obtaining finance rather than developing the technology. State funding would smooth the path and also enable the tax payers to benefit from any successfully developed projects. Often their progress is hindered by cash flow.

Furthermore the state does develop technologies via their Catapult operations, the one to develop offshore technology is based in Blyth Northumberland. If market forces were so innovative and successful at this activity why does the Catapult exist?

Thirdly I also dealt with companies such as Vestas the Danish wind turbine manufacturers sadly they pulled out of their Uk plant on the IoW some years ago. Denmark are one of the countries leading the way in developing renewables and undergoing a massive switch from fossil fuels to renewables. In 2019 80% of their energy came from renewables. Admittedly I do not know a lot about the structure of the Danish Energy sector but from what I can make out the distribution network is state owned and the biggest company in the sector is DONG which I understand is 50% state owned. So does that square with your assertion that state ownership stifles innovation?

I know that EDF is the French state owned power generator and as you say a huge amount of French electricity is nuclear, however their tentacles have stretched over here to the UK and we buy a lot of French energy via the Interconnector so it is some what ironic that the free market has allowed a state owned foreign organisation impinge on the UK energy market? Not sure how strong they are on innovation in the renewables sector.
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Re: Energy Switch

Post by chorleyhere » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:35 pm

I was with Ovo Energy and my contract finishes with them in October so I used Martin's Money saver comparison (Energy Club) and have switched to
E.ON Next Fixed 2 year which will save me £132 over the period compared with the new Ovo prices.
I should think that fixed prices will be very scarce in the coming weeks /months.

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by mill hill claret » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:08 pm

I'm with bulb but with all the uncertainty and rising tariffs I've tonight signed up to EDF ..time will tell if I've done the right thing

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Re: Energy Switch

Post by ClaretMov » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:14 pm

ClaretMov wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:40 pm
£50 credit when you switch to Octopus Energy https://share.octopus.energy/clean-newt ... SkVQcNCBZI
I'm still with octopus they still are the best price for me at the moment

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