• Is it terminal if we go down?

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:28 am**

As much as I don't think it will happen, how serious would the implications be for our new owners if we did get relegated? Are they prepared for that?

Surely you don't buy a club like Burnley without factoring in the possibility of relegation?

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:29 am**

I had heard the new owners don't know you can be relegated

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:29 am**

Our saleable assets would see us right until we got the wage bill under control or promoted.

Wouldn’t be a disaster I don’t think.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:30 am**

IF it's only for 1 season, and IF Dyche stayed, and IF we kept pretty much the entire squad, I doubt it would be a big problem. But that's a lot of ifs.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:32 am**

This squad would probably walk the Championship.
Problem would be keeping it together.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:32 am**

Parachute payments plus sales of Dwight (£40m), Pope (£30-40m - based on Ramsdale), Cornet, Wood and Taylor would most likely see us be able to pay off the MSD loan and be able to sign some of the best players in that league as well.

Not terminal in the slightest financially, although the upheaval in squad and (one would assume) loss of Dyche could leave us in a very worrying position on the pitch.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:34 am**

I'm pretty sure we have relegation clauses, that's one of the reasons why some players don't sign, or stay, so the wage bill would drop automatically.

When you say terminal, I'm fairly sure we wouldn't drop as fast as Sunderland for example.
We'd give it a good go at bouncing back and if we didn't do it first go that's when we'd have some players wanting to go

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:34 am**

It would need someone more financially sound to answer.

However I think the average revenue of championship clubs is around £36m mark. I think our latest figures had our operational costs at around the £120m mark, however that is before the debt repayment and new owners fees.

I would suggest it wouldn’t be catastrophic but would result in a hell of a lot of sales and the release of players.

If Dyche stayed i think we would be ok.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:37 am**

jedi_master wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:32 am
Parachute payments plus sales of Dwight (£40m), Pope (£30-40m - based on Ramsdale), Cornet, Wood and Taylor would most likely see us be able to pay off the MSD loan and be able to sign some of the best players in that league as well.

Not terminal in the slightest financially, although the upheaval in squad and (one would assume) loss of Dyche could leave us in a very worrying position on the pitch.

Might be easier to get the right players in,in the Championship after all most of our squad won't be good enough for the Premier soon, a season in the Championship to regroup & rebuild might be a good thing.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:38 am**

I think the core of our current team would be good enough to come straight back up, but it would need to be done within 2 seasons, otherwise it would be pretty catastrophic!

Potentially a relegation would allow Dyche to blood some of the younger players coming through...

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:45 am**

It’ll take bigger investment to get back up than it would have took to plug the gaps we have this season.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:48 am**

kazza wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:30 am
IF it's only for 1 season, and IF Dyche stayed, and IF we kept pretty much the entire squad, I doubt it would be a big problem. But that's a lot of ifs.

Blimey that is a lot of ifs.

Difficult to say without knowing all the facts, but when we dropped in 2010, we seemed to be able to keep most of our big earners for a season, mainly due to the parachute payments I guess, but in the 2nd season we had to have a large fire sale, and it's worth remembering the parachute payments are now spread over 2 seasons instead of 3.

In 15/16 we retained the core of our squad, and with some astute captures made an immediate return to the PL, so looking at the signings of Collins & Roberts for example, you'd expect them both to be top Championship stars, and a couple more in that mould, and we'd have no trouble coming straight back, for evidence just look at Fulham & West Brom, who are both looking strong favourites to make an instant return to the big time.

One advantage we would enjoy should the worst happen, is we have assets in the shape of McNeil & Pope to name but two, who we could expect to generate decent money for in the event of them wanting to leave.

What we don't know is how our debt repayments are structured, and obviously our income would be drastically reduced, however the fact we have relegation clauses inserted into the player's, and I assume the managers contract's should ensure we are able to cope with relegation in the short term.

And it may not even happen, well not this season anyway, we're only 4 games into the campaign, so talk of relegation is premature in my view, win against Arsenal on Saturday, and we'll be mid-table or thereabouts, so let's not be too despondent at this embryonic stage of the season.

Bizarre as it may seem, I actually think SD is more likely to stay in the event of relegation, and let's be honest if you wanted a manager to bring you out of the Championship he'd be high on anyone's list.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:50 am**

Losing your best players isn't a problem if they are well replaced.

Look at the 14/15 relegation, we came down and lost Danny Ings (top goalscorer), Kieran Trippier (best player) and Jason Shackell (captain). We still went back up as Champions.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:51 am**

kazza wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:30 am
IF it's only for 1 season, and IF Dyche stayed, and IF we kept pretty much the entire squad, I doubt it would be a big problem. But that's a lot of ifs.

No ifs about SD-he would not stay I am certain

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:51 am**

No

In the worst case scenario for the owners the club would transfer back into the hands of Garlick and John B. They would lose their 30m initial stake.

The club could reset- get the wage bill to 60m or so for the first season and lower if we stay down.

You could argue staying up for another 5 years is more costly as the wage bill could be 150m by then.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:55 am**

jedi_master wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:50 am
Losing your best players isn't a problem if they are well replaced.

Look at the 14/15 relegation, we came down and lost Danny Ings (top goalscorer), Kieran Trippier (best player) and Jason Shackell (captain). We still went back up as Champions.

Slightly different position, we had a squad of players then. If we are relegated I doubt we would offer contracts to any of our OOC players. So we could be looking at a squad of 14 senior players (that’s including Pope and McNeil). We would effectively have to purchase 6-7 players if we went down

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:59 am**

Josh Brownhill would be playing at his natural level

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:09 pm**

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:55 am
Slightly different position, we had a squad of players then. If we are relegated I doubt we would offer contracts to any of our OOC players. So we could be looking at a squad of 14 senior players (that’s including Pope and McNeil). We would effectively have to purchase 6-7 players if we went down

Most of us would assume that the majority of OOC players have signed new ones by then, or plans made to replace them like we've done signing Roberts for Bardsley.

People on here take great delight belittling our squad, claiming they won't get into other PL teams, so using that logic where else are they gonna go?

I'm also pretty sure Dyche took us up one season using just 18 senior players throughout the whole season.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:18 pm**

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:09 pm
Most of us would assume that the majority of OOC players have signed new ones by then, or plans made to replace them like we've done signing Roberts for Bardsley.

People on here take great delight belittling our squad, claiming they won't get into other PL teams, so using that logic where else are they gonna go?

I'm also pretty sure Dyche took us up one season using just 18 senior players throughout the whole season.

If we should suffer falling to the Championship, perhaps some of the development squad might get their chance, Richardson & Thomas are 2 that immediately spring to mind.

Regarding the OOC players I guess we'd probably offer some of them new deals on reduced terms, Jay and Vyds for example would be a fairly prolific strike force at that level, Collins would replace Tarks.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:30 pm**

The impact would be massive, like it is with any club. It is impossible to judge, though we hope huge bonus payments rather than huge basic wages negates some of the impact the steps taken at seasons end would dictate our response. I’d expect a cooling off season and then another push.

I fully expect it not to be an issue.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:49 pm**

I actually think the bounce back is a lot easier now than it was 7 years ago. The gap between the Prem and the Championship is widening, and the EFL enforcing FFP, helps as well. Our longevity in the Prem means we would receive the full 3 year parachute payments, so we can afford to speculate if necessary. Last season, and this one so far, have shown that the teams most likely to bounce back are the ones that didn't bet the ranch to get there, or to stay there. We fall into that category.
Promotion is never a given, but with our mindset, SDs nous, and a group of players who are a lot better than many appreciate we would be ok.

Much better not to find out though.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:04 pm**

Id love a season in the championship

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:13 pm**

It genuinely could go either way if we go down. We could be the next Ipswich, Rovers, Sunderland, Hull, Stoke etc. etc. OR we could do a Fulham, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom etc and rise to the top of a very murky gene pool. But because there is massive risk of the former I would NEVER wish for "a season in the Championship" or be blase about us getting relegated. I vividly remember being utterly distraught in May 1976 and yet consoling myself with the firm belief that with the players we had come May 1977 we'd be right back where we belong. Mmmmmm!

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:34 pm**

If we didn’t come back up quickly ( which is far from guaranteed) I can’t see how the new owners model would work. Revenues would reduce over time but we would still have high operating costs and particularly wages. The new owners won’t know how difficult it is to get out of the Championship and the laws of probability are that we wouldn’t do it again under Dyche.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:39 pm**

If fulham can go down and romp it so could we

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:50 pm**

Local cricketer wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:59 am
Josh Brownhill would be playing at his natural level

I read a lot of similar comments about Marney and Arfield on the old site.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:42 pm**

Dark Cloud wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:13 pm
It genuinely could go either way if we go down. We could be the next Ipswich, Rovers, Sunderland, Hull, Stoke etc. etc. OR we could do a Fulham, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom etc and rise to the top of a very murky gene pool. But because there is massive risk of the former I would NEVER wish for "a season in the Championship" or be blase about us getting relegated. I vividly remember being utterly distraught in May 1976 and yet consoling myself with the firm belief that with the players we had come May 1977 we'd be right back where we belong. Mmmmmm!

I'd go as far to say that football between now and 1977 is so different it's now a completely different sport.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:41 pm**

No chance it's terminal.

The Championship is so poor at the moment (lowest quality it's been for a long time, as evidenced by Rovers and Stoke doing well!) that we'd be straight back up even after losing a few.

People also seem to be forgetting the relegation clauses that we have in players contracts that would no doubt cut our outgoings to sustainable levels straight away, and I dare say the loan arrangements include some reasonable adjustments in these circumstances too.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:57 pm**

As has been said. If the owners can provide the backing to keep the squad together, with dyche I can not see us staying down for more than a couple of years. Even if we had to sell a couple I reckon we’d be alright. Although we haven’t signed many over the last couple of years, 5 years in the prem has left us with a lot of players who are too good for the championship.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:07 pm**

I think it’s easier staying in the premier league than getting out of the championship
The play off promotion was a magic carpet ride
The 2nd promotion was Dyche’s greatest achievement
Staying in the prem 1st time wasn’t far behind
The title win the season preceding it was very very good

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:43 pm**

Quickenthetempo wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:51 am
No

In the worst case scenario for the owners the club would transfer back into the hands of Garlick and John B. They would lose their 30m initial stake.

The club could reset- get the wage bill to 60m or so for the first season and lower if we stay down.

You could argue staying up for another 5 years is more costly as the wage bill could be 150m by then.

Worst thing that could happen is for the guys who lost their chequebook for (was it three years) come back into ownership full time. At least Alan and his pals want to spend some money , albeit it if its not really theirs yet.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:49 pm**

Some of the ludicrous figures being bandied around like 30m for Pope and 40m for Dwight not to mention those that think “ this squad would walk the champ even without its best assets “ are a joy to behold !

Naturally we’d have to realise the assets and the parachute would be keep us sweet for 1 season . After that you’d just be another ex prem team and likely far from the wealthiest .

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:57 pm**

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:49 pm
Some of the ludicrous figures being bandied around like 30m for Pope and 40m for Dwight not to mention those that think “ this squad would walk the champ even without its best assets “ are a joy to behold !

Naturally we’d have to realise the assets and the parachute would be keep us sweet for 1 season . After that you’d just be another ex prem team and likely far from the wealthiest .

How much do you think Arsenal paid for the England non international Ramsdale?

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:04 pm**

Is it terminal if we go down? Of course it isn't.
There are lots of football clubs outside the PL, you know.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:17 pm**

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:49 pm
Some of the ludicrous figures being bandied around like 30m for Pope and 40m for Dwight not to mention those that think “ this squad would walk the champ even without its best assets “ are a joy to behold !

Naturally we’d have to realise the assets and the parachute would be keep us sweet for 1 season . After that you’d just be another ex prem team and likely far from the wealthiest .

Arsenal just paid silly money for Ramsdale the relegation expert.

Villa just paid silly money for that lad from Norwich.

The figures we bandy around for our players are reasonable amounts.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:21 pm**

Spijed wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:57 pm
How much do you think Arsenal paid for the England non international Ramsdale?

The same non England international that went to the Euros?

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:28 pm**

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:21 pm
The same non England international that went to the Euros?

Only cos Pope was injured, he was never going to play unless there was a disaster

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:29 pm**

If we go down, stay down, throw money at getting straight back up and fail then the debt we have to service could become a real problem.

Thats the big risk we have with the new owners but lets hope we dont ever get to test out the theory

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:49 pm**

I'm not convinced we would walk the Championship, like I'm not convinced with most sides who get relegated. If you take out Wood, Pope, Tarkowski and Mcneil we're a really poor poor side.

I think the people suggesting we'd walk the league are the ones stuck in the past with these players, they remember Rodriguez and Barnes from 3-4 years ago and aren't factoring in the current ability of these players. We also have a ton of players out of contract.

I wouldn't be against a complete reset if we were relegated,

completely decimate the squad, new manager with fresh ideas/style, injection of youth team prospects.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:05 pm**

KRBFC wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:49 pm
I'm not convinced we would walk the Championship, like I'm not convinced with most sides who get relegated. If you take out Wood, Pope, Tarkowski and Mcneil we're a really poor poor side.

I think the people suggesting we'd walk the league are the ones stuck in the past with these players, they remember Rodriguez and Barnes from 3-4 years ago and aren't factoring in the current ability of these players. We also have a ton of players out of contract.

I wouldn't be against a complete reset if we were relegated,

completely decimate the squad, new manager with fresh ideas/style, injection of youth team prospects.

We really aren’t a poor side without those in the championship, we’ve top championship players

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:07 pm**

Burnley1989 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:05 pm
We really aren’t a poor side without those in the championship, we’ve top championship players

Like who? and based on what?

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:08 pm**

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:28 pm
Only cos Pope was injured, he was never going to play unless there was a disaster

We will see, if Ramsdale starts playing regular for Arsenal (which I suspect to happen rather soon) he will be second choice from then.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:09 pm**

Burnley1989 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:05 pm
We really aren’t a poor side without those in the championship, we’ve top championship players

We really don’t at all.

Take McNeil, Pope and Tarks out of this team and we would struggle in the championship

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:10 pm**

KRBFC wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:49 pm
I'm not convinced we would walk the Championship, like I'm not convinced with most sides who get relegated. If you take out Wood, Pope, Tarkowski and Mcneil we're a really poor poor side.

I think the people suggesting we'd walk the league are the ones stuck in the past with these players, they remember Rodriguez and Barnes from 3-4 years ago and aren't factoring in the current ability of these players. We also have a ton of players out of contract.

I wouldn't be against a complete reset if we were relegated,

completely decimate the squad, new manager with fresh ideas/style, injection of youth team prospects.

Absolutely.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:14 pm**

KRBFC wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:07 pm
Like who? and based on what?

Based on the fact they’re top championship players, almost all of our squad.
Almost all of our match day squad would get in a top 6 championship team, and we have a manager that’s proven to be a top manager at that level and above.
I can’t actually believe I’m trying to argue this

You said we’d be a poor, poor side… we really wouldnt

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:17 pm**

Burnley1989 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:14 pm
Based on the fact they’re top championship players, almost all of our squad.
Almost all of our match day squad would get in a top 6 championship team, and we have a manager that’s proven to be a top manager at that level and above.

You need to change the tense of your verbs there.

I can’t actually believe I’m trying to argue this
You said we’d be a poor, poor side… we really wouldnt

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:20 pm**

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:34 am
I'm pretty sure we have relegation clauses, that's one of the reasons why some players don't sign, or stay, so the wage bill would drop automatically.

I've always wondered whether these relegation clauses apply also to the manager and his coaching staff or is it just the players?

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:30 pm**

Burnley1989 wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:14 pm
Based on the fact they’re top championship players, almost all of our squad.
Almost all of our match day squad would get in a top 6 championship team, and we have a manager that’s proven to be a top manager at that level and above.
I can’t actually believe I’m trying to argue this
You said we’d be a poor, poor side… we really wouldnt

People would've said the same about Brady, Boyd, Vokes, Jones and many others. Non of them were top Championship players when they left us.

Rodriguez scoring goals for WBA in the Championship 4 years ago.
Brownhill wasn't at a top 6 Championship club when he signed.
Vydra hasn't had a good season since he was at Derby in 2018.
Kevin Long has never been linked with a move to a top 6 Championship club in all of his time here.
Lennon was poor last season in a relegation Turkish team, I see zero evidence he's a world beater in the Championship.
Barnes, reminds me of Vokes who's now playing in League One.
Non of the youngsters from the youth teams who've filled out our bench have been loaned to top 6 Championship sides or been linked to that level of a loan.
Cork can't remember the last good game he had for us, you're remembering the Jack Cork from 4 years ago, that's cute.
Peacock Farrell, wasn't number 1 at Leeds, Casilla preferred now on loan in League One.
Gudmundsson looks like he's genuinely 76 years old, a clear athletic decline.
Stephens he has barely played a football game in 2 years, looks in terrible shape and a passenger.

So what are we left with?

Mee Lowton Westwood Cornet Taylor Pieters Bardsley Collins Roberts

Mee should be good enough despite a shaky start to the season.
Taylor should be the best left back in the Championship.
Cornet will probably leave.
Collins looks a great talent but hasn't really featured in the Championship at CB.
Pieters and Bardsley are solid cover players.
Roberts impressive figures, young and should be one of the best Championship right backs.
Westwood very limited player, robotic like, lacks composure on the ball for me.

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:32 pm**

minus Wood Mcneil Pope and Tarkowski, we genuinely wouldn't reach 15 points in the PL season. Poor side

Posted: **Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:33 pm**

kentonclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:20 pm
I've always wondered whether these relegation clauses apply also to the manager and his coaching staff or is it just the players?

I've never thought of that and I've don't recall ever seeing it mentioned.

90% of managers end up leaving, either by choice or getting potted, so I suppose it's never really been much of a discussion point on forums

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