How many points will we need to stay up
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How many points will we need to stay up
So roughly a 1/4 of the campaign gone after Saturday, and this is generally about the time you get a fair idea of what it'll take to survive.
Assessing the table as it stands I'd estimate 36-38 points should be enough to ensure we remain in this league.
And one thing is clear the bottom 3 will more than likely amass more points than they did last season when it was a record low for all the relegated teams.
So 9 wins and a handful of draws could be ample, 10 wins and a few draws most certainly will be, however 10 wins seems a long way away at this moment in time, so the sooner we start racking them up the better.
Assessing the table as it stands I'd estimate 36-38 points should be enough to ensure we remain in this league.
And one thing is clear the bottom 3 will more than likely amass more points than they did last season when it was a record low for all the relegated teams.
So 9 wins and a handful of draws could be ample, 10 wins and a few draws most certainly will be, however 10 wins seems a long way away at this moment in time, so the sooner we start racking them up the better.
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Hmmm, so after careful consideration, you think we will need high thirties to stay up and that to get that total we will need to win 10 or 11 games and get a few draws?
No s**t Sherlock!
No s**t Sherlock!
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
I think it far too early yet to come up with anything
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
One point more than 3 teams below us....simples.
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
I'm still gonna guess tho. 36
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
36 points needed to stay up; or 35 points if you have a goal difference of -24 or better; or 35 points and a goal difference of -25 if you have scored 35 or more goals; or 35 points, a goal difference of -25 and a goal scored of 34 goals if the first letter of your team name starts with R or better.
Only a rough guess but thats my prediction
Only a rough guess but thats my prediction
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
The bottom four at this stage last season were
Fulham 4 pts
West Brom 3 pts
Burnley 2pts
Sheff Utd 1 pt
We'd a game in hand but we did win the next game
Fulham 4 pts
West Brom 3 pts
Burnley 2pts
Sheff Utd 1 pt
We'd a game in hand but we did win the next game
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Same as ever, got to base it 40 points as virtually guaranteed survival, aim for that then other teams shock results needn’t stress us out (or more importantly, our players).
In other words, I’m more concerned about being on 3 points than I am about Watford being on ‘x’ points. We simply have to get to 40, if we need less, its a bonus.
In other words, I’m more concerned about being on 3 points than I am about Watford being on ‘x’ points. We simply have to get to 40, if we need less, its a bonus.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
In the last ten seasons teams in 18th got:
11/12 - 36 pts
12/13 - 36 pts
13/14 - 33 pts
14/15 - 35 pts
15/16 - 37 pts
16/17 - 34 pts
17/18 - 33 pts
18/19 - 34 pts
19/20 - 34 pts
20/21 - 28 pts
Averages out at 34 points so you'd need 35 points to survive in 17th.
11/12 - 36 pts
12/13 - 36 pts
13/14 - 33 pts
14/15 - 35 pts
15/16 - 37 pts
16/17 - 34 pts
17/18 - 33 pts
18/19 - 34 pts
19/20 - 34 pts
20/21 - 28 pts
Averages out at 34 points so you'd need 35 points to survive in 17th.
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Just doesn't work like that and in 10/11 two teams went down with 39 pointsSpijed wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:06 amIn the last ten seasons teams in 18th got:
11/12 - 36 pts
12/13 - 36 pts
13/14 - 33 pts
14/15 - 35 pts
15/16 - 37 pts
16/17 - 34 pts
17/18 - 33 pts
18/19 - 34 pts
19/20 - 34 pts
20/21 - 28 pts
Averages out at 34 points so you'd need 35 points to survive in 17th.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
So far we are averaging 0.375 points per game. If this continues we would end the season with 14 points (14.25). If we need 38 to stay up we will need another 35 points from the remaining 30 games which is an average of 1.166 per game. Doable for sure but a very tough call.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
We are going to have to win around 10 games and
Draw about 7 or 8 out of the last 30 games left just to scrape staying up, I can't see this season this team winning 9 or 10 game's, I think we might manage 6 or 7 top's and draw the same but losing around 16 more game's this season resulting in us ending the season on around 25/28 point's and relegated, lack of investment when needed and an old squad will unfortunately show.
Draw about 7 or 8 out of the last 30 games left just to scrape staying up, I can't see this season this team winning 9 or 10 game's, I think we might manage 6 or 7 top's and draw the same but losing around 16 more game's this season resulting in us ending the season on around 25/28 point's and relegated, lack of investment when needed and an old squad will unfortunately show.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Can't edit so to add to the above post, we lack firepower up front and central midfield ball winner's
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
40 points is the benchmark but it’s very rarely needed that. The fact that we have more points than at the same stage last season, with better players, tells me we have nothing to worry about. Relegation is not even on my radar.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Now now Ian you know that sort of reasoning does not fit in with agenda of some on here ...
We have to be full of doom and gloom anything else just isn't the done thing ...
So ...... Shhhhhh don't tell anyone I said this ... but you are totally correct
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Oops. Sorry Boss. I was forgetting where I was for a minute. Must remember to abandon logic on here.
Note to self: don’t try to be logical on this site.
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
More than we've got.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Better players? Is that assuming players don't get worse with time? that's certainly defying logic...
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
So can I take it that we've given up on Europe?
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Pope, Tarks, Mee, Wood, JBG, note to mention the new lads, these are hardly over the hill are they? I’m not saying we don’t need new blood but we have enough to stay up.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Tarks may well exit in January if we want to get anything for him. If he hasn't signed a new contract by Xmas, then the rumour of him moving to a relegation rival may prove correct
But then Collins is younger.
But then Collins is younger.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
If the players play like they did last season with the addition of Cornet, Roberts and Collins, we should have enough. I'm not convinced all of the players have improved/stagnated in ability since last season. JBG was over the hill 2 years ago, 9 assists in 5 years and 3 assists since the start of 2019.
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
Re JBG being over the hill?
It's really hard to contribute to a game when you're injured
Personally I always think we need 40
We will need 37 after this Saturday
It's really hard to contribute to a game when you're injured
Personally I always think we need 40
We will need 37 after this Saturday
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
We will go down this season no doubt about it.
Re: How many points will we need to stay up
We've done it before so the argument is that we can do it again.
Stay up on whatever number of points we can muster as long as 3 teams have less.
I personally think we'll need 37/38 points. Possibly 1 or 2 more.
11 wins and a few draws would get us there.
So my reckoning is we need to win against:
Brentford, Palace, Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Newcastle at home
and Norwich, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle and Southampton away.
Drop any points from those and we'll need to pick up a win or two
against a few of the top ten teams.
You'd probably get good odds from the bookies if you bet on us winning all those.
I'd guess at 3 or 4 to 1 against us achieving that. Probably even more.
Maybe it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is?
Or at least find out what odds the bookies would give us?
Stay up on whatever number of points we can muster as long as 3 teams have less.
I personally think we'll need 37/38 points. Possibly 1 or 2 more.
11 wins and a few draws would get us there.
So my reckoning is we need to win against:
Brentford, Palace, Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Newcastle at home
and Norwich, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle and Southampton away.
Drop any points from those and we'll need to pick up a win or two
against a few of the top ten teams.
You'd probably get good odds from the bookies if you bet on us winning all those.
I'd guess at 3 or 4 to 1 against us achieving that. Probably even more.
Maybe it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is?
Or at least find out what odds the bookies would give us?
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up
An eleven fold you would be talking incredible odds. Probably close to 500-1jurek wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:56 pmWe've done it before so the argument is that we can do it again.
Stay up on whatever number of points we can muster as long as 3 teams have less.
I personally think we'll need 37/38 points. Possibly 1 or 2 more.
11 wins and a few draws would get us there.
So my reckoning is we need to win against:
Brentford, Palace, Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Newcastle at home
and Norwich, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle and Southampton away.
Drop any points from those and we'll need to pick up a win or two
against a few of the top ten teams.
You'd probably get good odds from the bookies if you bet on us winning all those.
I'd guess at 3 or 4 to 1 against us achieving that. Probably even more.
Maybe it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is?
Or at least find out what odds the bookies would give us?