How many points will we need to stay up

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tiger76
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How many points will we need to stay up

Post by tiger76 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:20 am

So roughly a 1/4 of the campaign gone after Saturday, and this is generally about the time you get a fair idea of what it'll take to survive.

Assessing the table as it stands I'd estimate 36-38 points should be enough to ensure we remain in this league.

And one thing is clear the bottom 3 will more than likely amass more points than they did last season when it was a record low for all the relegated teams.

So 9 wins and a handful of draws could be ample, 10 wins and a few draws most certainly will be, however 10 wins seems a long way away at this moment in time, so the sooner we start racking them up the better. :)

CaptainKirk
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by CaptainKirk » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:25 am

Hmmm, so after careful consideration, you think we will need high thirties to stay up and that to get that total we will need to win 10 or 11 games and get a few draws?
No s**t Sherlock! :D

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by ClaretTony » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:25 am

I think it far too early yet to come up with anything

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Steve1956 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:31 am

One point more than 3 teams below us....simples.

Roosterbooster
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Roosterbooster » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:35 am

ClaretTony wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:25 am
I think it far too early yet to come up with anything
I'm still gonna guess tho. 36

Devils_Advocate
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Devils_Advocate » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:36 am

36 points needed to stay up; or 35 points if you have a goal difference of -24 or better; or 35 points and a goal difference of -25 if you have scored 35 or more goals; or 35 points, a goal difference of -25 and a goal scored of 34 goals if the first letter of your team name starts with R or better.

Only a rough guess but thats my prediction

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by ClaretTony » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:38 am

The bottom four at this stage last season were

Fulham 4 pts
West Brom 3 pts
Burnley 2pts
Sheff Utd 1 pt

We'd a game in hand but we did win the next game

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:39 am

Same as ever, got to base it 40 points as virtually guaranteed survival, aim for that then other teams shock results needn’t stress us out (or more importantly, our players).

In other words, I’m more concerned about being on 3 points than I am about Watford being on ‘x’ points. We simply have to get to 40, if we need less, its a bonus.

Spijed
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Spijed » Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:06 am

In the last ten seasons teams in 18th got:
11/12 - 36 pts
12/13 - 36 pts
13/14 - 33 pts
14/15 - 35 pts
15/16 - 37 pts
16/17 - 34 pts
17/18 - 33 pts
18/19 - 34 pts
19/20 - 34 pts
20/21 - 28 pts

Averages out at 34 points so you'd need 35 points to survive in 17th.

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by ClaretTony » Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:09 am

Spijed wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:06 am
In the last ten seasons teams in 18th got:
11/12 - 36 pts
12/13 - 36 pts
13/14 - 33 pts
14/15 - 35 pts
15/16 - 37 pts
16/17 - 34 pts
17/18 - 33 pts
18/19 - 34 pts
19/20 - 34 pts
20/21 - 28 pts

Averages out at 34 points so you'd need 35 points to survive in 17th.
Just doesn't work like that and in 10/11 two teams went down with 39 points

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by FCBurnley » Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:05 pm

So far we are averaging 0.375 points per game. If this continues we would end the season with 14 points (14.25). If we need 38 to stay up we will need another 35 points from the remaining 30 games which is an average of 1.166 per game. Doable for sure but a very tough call.

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by ClaretMov » Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:46 pm

We are going to have to win around 10 games and
Draw about 7 or 8 out of the last 30 games left just to scrape staying up, I can't see this season this team winning 9 or 10 game's, I think we might manage 6 or 7 top's and draw the same but losing around 16 more game's this season resulting in us ending the season on around 25/28 point's and relegated, lack of investment when needed and an old squad will unfortunately show.

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by ClaretMov » Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:51 pm

Can't edit so to add to the above post, we lack firepower up front and central midfield ball winner's
This user liked this post: Rumpelstiltskin

houseboy
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by houseboy » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:01 pm

40 points is the benchmark but it’s very rarely needed that. The fact that we have more points than at the same stage last season, with better players, tells me we have nothing to worry about. Relegation is not even on my radar.

houseboy
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by houseboy » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:03 pm

ClaretMov wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:51 pm
Can't edit so to add to the above post, we lack firepower up front and central midfield ball winner's
Let’s get a good run with Cornet and Vydra. That’ll tell you how much we have up front. We’re all right.

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Bosscat » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:05 pm

houseboy wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:01 pm
40 points is the benchmark but it’s very rarely needed that. The fact that we have more points than at the same stage last season, with better players, tells me we have nothing to worry about. Relegation is not even on my radar.
Now now Ian you know that sort of reasoning does not fit in with agenda of some on here ...

We have to be full of doom and gloom anything else just isn't the done thing ... 🤨






So ...... Shhhhhh don't tell anyone I said this ... but you are totally correct 😉

houseboy
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by houseboy » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:20 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:05 pm
Now now Ian you know that sort of reasoning does not fit in with agenda of some on here ...

We have to be full of doom and gloom anything else just isn't the done thing ... 🤨






So ...... Shhhhhh don't tell anyone I said this ... but you are totally correct 😉
Oops. Sorry Boss. I was forgetting where I was for a minute. Must remember to abandon logic on here.

Note to self: don’t try to be logical on this site.

😂😂😂😂😊
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by HunterST_BFC » Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:15 pm

More than we've got.

KRBFC
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by KRBFC » Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:38 pm

houseboy wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:01 pm
40 points is the benchmark but it’s very rarely needed that. The fact that we have more points than at the same stage last season, with better players, tells me we have nothing to worry about. Relegation is not even on my radar.
Better players? Is that assuming players don't get worse with time? that's certainly defying logic...

boatshed bill
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:11 am

So can I take it that we've given up on Europe?

houseboy
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by houseboy » Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:19 am

KRBFC wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:38 pm
Better players? Is that assuming players don't get worse with time? that's certainly defying logic...
Pope, Tarks, Mee, Wood, JBG, note to mention the new lads, these are hardly over the hill are they? I’m not saying we don’t need new blood but we have enough to stay up.

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by timshorts » Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:26 am

Tarks may well exit in January if we want to get anything for him. If he hasn't signed a new contract by Xmas, then the rumour of him moving to a relegation rival may prove correct

But then Collins is younger.

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by KRBFC » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:29 pm

houseboy wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:19 am
Pope, Tarks, Mee, Wood, JBG, note to mention the new lads, these are hardly over the hill are they? I’m not saying we don’t need new blood but we have enough to stay up.
If the players play like they did last season with the addition of Cornet, Roberts and Collins, we should have enough. I'm not convinced all of the players have improved/stagnated in ability since last season. JBG was over the hill 2 years ago, 9 assists in 5 years and 3 assists since the start of 2019.

Woodleyclaret
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Woodleyclaret » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:42 pm

Re JBG being over the hill?
It's really hard to contribute to a game when you're injured
Personally I always think we need 40
We will need 37 after this Saturday

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by PadihamThickNeck » Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:03 pm

We will go down this season no doubt about it.

jurek
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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by jurek » Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:56 pm

We've done it before so the argument is that we can do it again.
Stay up on whatever number of points we can muster as long as 3 teams have less.
I personally think we'll need 37/38 points. Possibly 1 or 2 more.

11 wins and a few draws would get us there.

So my reckoning is we need to win against:
Brentford, Palace, Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Newcastle at home
and Norwich, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle and Southampton away.
Drop any points from those and we'll need to pick up a win or two
against a few of the top ten teams.

You'd probably get good odds from the bookies if you bet on us winning all those.
I'd guess at 3 or 4 to 1 against us achieving that. Probably even more.

Maybe it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is?
Or at least find out what odds the bookies would give us?

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Re: How many points will we need to stay up

Post by Newcastleclaret93 » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:43 am

jurek wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:56 pm
We've done it before so the argument is that we can do it again.
Stay up on whatever number of points we can muster as long as 3 teams have less.
I personally think we'll need 37/38 points. Possibly 1 or 2 more.

11 wins and a few draws would get us there.

So my reckoning is we need to win against:
Brentford, Palace, Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Newcastle at home
and Norwich, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle and Southampton away.
Drop any points from those and we'll need to pick up a win or two
against a few of the top ten teams.

You'd probably get good odds from the bookies if you bet on us winning all those.
I'd guess at 3 or 4 to 1 against us achieving that. Probably even more.

Maybe it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is?
Or at least find out what odds the bookies would give us?
An eleven fold you would be talking incredible odds. Probably close to 500-1

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