Survival is still in our own hands !

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FCBurnley
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Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:04 pm

Despite having a pathetic 11 points from 17 games, survival in the PL is still in our own hands

We still have 21 games to play inc 12 at home. We also have 4 games to play against teams in the bottom 4 Watford home and away , Norwich
Away and Newcastle home. 3 of those games are in our last 7 fixtures
Almost certainly if we win those 4 games we will survive. Looking at current points averages it is quite possible that 30 points will survive. Watford are currently averaging 0.736 points per game which if that continuity the whole season will give them under 28 points and they currently have the highest ppg in the bottom 4. So 30 is a realistic target although obviously that can change dramatically in the second half of the season.

IF we can win the 4 games against the other bottom clubs that would lift us 23 points leaving us to pick up another 7 from our remaining 17 games

So all to play for and very doable especially if we can pick up a couple of quality players in the next week or so

Lots of ifs and buts however it is still in our own hands

UTC
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:09 pm

FCBurnley wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:04 pm
Lots of ifs and buts however it is still in our own hands
Very true and when you say OUR OWN HANDS, that does include the supporters!

Definitely time for us the raise the roof and make Turf Moor a fortress once more.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by tiger76 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:29 pm

Yes it muot certainly is, but at some stage we need to start winning games, as we can't continue relying on others to be as poor as they have been during the 1st part of the season.

Beat Watford (assuming it goes ahead) and the whole picture will look drastically different, and as the OP correctly notes we have to pick up a few wins against those in direct competition to us.

It's been a bizarre season, we've been poor for weeks, and yet we keep being given lifelines, and sooner or later we need to start clinging onto them.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:33 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:29 pm
Yes it muot certainly is, but at some stage we need to start winning games, as we can't continue relying on others to be as poor as they have been during the 1st part of the season.

Beat Watford (assuming it goes ahead) and the whole picture will look drastically different, and as the OP correctly notes we have to pick up a few wins against those in direct competition to us.

It's been a bizarre season, we've been poor for weeks, and yet we keep being given lifelines, and sooner or later we need to start clinging onto them.
Without a doubt if we are relegated it will be 100% our own fault

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by gawthorpe_view » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:34 pm

Do I detect a faint whiff of optimism?
Won't go down well with some on here.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by tiger76 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:37 pm

FCBurnley wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:33 pm
Without a doubt if we are relegated it will be 100% our own fault
Yep! we got away with it last season mainly due to the fact that none of the bottom 3 could put a sustained run together, and if we can't even amass 34-35 points, and it may not even require that many, then 100% we deserve to go down.

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:38 pm

Just trying to state it as it is. I would rather be in our position than the other 3 but the 1 win in 17 says we should go down

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by jedi_master » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:39 pm

I mentally accepted relegation after the Leeds game. We looked utterly done to me.

The sale of Wood allowing us to rejig our team, and the draw between Newcastle and Watford have definitely changed things. I liked Wood, but he had been poor this season and we were going down with the team as it stood. We have been given the opportunity to ‘twist’ rather than stick now.

It’s down to Pace and Dyche to get the new signings right, and then for us to beat Watford. Anything is possible if we do those things.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by ksrclaret » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:41 pm

We are lucky that there are, for the moment at least, four poor teams this season who just can't put any sort of decent results together. It wasn't really the case last season when Sheff Utd, West Brom, and Fulham never looked like getting out of trouble.

It's weird because coming away from Leeds a couple of weeks ago it just felt like we were down and out. It's a huge ask because of our dismal record this season, but if we beat Watford you never know.

I've seen a few posts suggesting we'd be better off if the Watford game was postponed. My perspective is we need to play it on Tuesday. It's difficult to see us getting anything from Arsenal and Man Utd after that point and that would just further dent the fragile confidence. A difficult one to call.

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:41 pm

FCBurnley wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:38 pm
I would rather be in our position than the other 3
Id much rather have 14 points from 19 games than 11 points from 17 games but each to their own

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Winstonswhite » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:42 pm

Has 30 points ever been enough before?

We need almost 1 win every 2 games. Even ignoring the fact we’ve had just 1 win in 17 games, I still think that’s probably too big an ask!

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by tiger76 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:43 pm

gawthorpe_view wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:34 pm
Do I detect a faint whiff of optimism?
Won't go down well with some on here.
As long as we remain in touching distance of the other 3, especially with our amount of games in hand, we have to retain optimism.

It's increasingly looking like 3 from 4, hence why the head-to-heads will become even more important than normal.

In that respect we do need to improve our present haul of 1/6 from the Newcastle and Norwich games, but on any given day we are capable of beating any of those 3 sides, as none of that trio are better than us.

However until we do actually beat one of them, and give our hopes a big boost then the doubts will continue surrounding us, and rightly so.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by tiger76 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:47 pm

Winstonswhite wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:42 pm
Has 30 points ever been enough before?

We need almost 1 win every 2 games. Even ignoring the fact we’ve had just 1 win in 17 games, I still think that’s probably too big an ask!
30 points would have been enough last season, so it's not implausible that it can be again, but I'd expect all the 4 marooned near the foot to improve somewhat over the course of the campaign, the question is who can show enough improvement to dodge the bullet.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:55 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:41 pm
Id much rather have 14 points from 19 games than 11 points from 17 games but each to their own
If Watford get at least a point on Tuesday then I agree.

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Paddy1882 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:57 pm

The Watford game certainly looks and feels like one of the biggest we’ve had for a long long time. The fact that a win at home against another poor side could see us climb out the relegation zone for the first time since September should be the only motivation Dyche, the players, the fans anyone needs to get right up for this one. As someone further up said if it gets called off and we get beat off Arsenal and Man U that for me would be the final nail in the coffin. We have to do everything we can to keep this game on and we have to be bang up for it, if we aren’t especially the players, then frankly they deserve whatever fait comes there way In terms of relegation.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by warksclaret » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:03 pm

There comes a time, however positive you stay, when you need to let go of the rope. Our usual relegation friends keeping us company, have moved on, strengthened and invested in good young talent. I count Palace, Brighton, Saints in this area. One of the promotion teams, Brentford has a very good business model, manager in touch with the times and have had some great results. It basically leaves four clubs in it. The only chance we have is Newcastle under Eddy collapsing, because with one win in 25 catching anyone above the bottom four is an impossibility. No other way of realistically describing it.

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by taio » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:04 pm

Paddy1882 wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:57 pm
The Watford game certainly looks and feels like one of the biggest we’ve had for a long long time. The fact that a win at home against another poor side could see us climb out the relegation zone for the first time since September should be the only motivation Dyche, the players, the fans anyone needs to get right up for this one. As someone further up said if it gets called off and we get beat off Arsenal and Man U that for me would be the final nail in the coffin. We have to do everything we can to keep this game on and we have to be bang up for it, if we aren’t especially the players, then frankly they deserve whatever fait comes there way In terms of relegation.
Absolutely massive game if it goes ahead
Last edited by taio on Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Vegas Claret » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:05 pm

Winstonswhite wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:42 pm
Has 30 points ever been enough before?

We need almost 1 win every 2 games. Even ignoring the fact we’ve had just 1 win in 17 games, I still think that’s probably too big an ask!
the way its going we might only need 20 !!

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Vegas Claret » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:05 pm

taio wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:04 pm
:cry:

Absolutely massive game it goes ahead
biggest game since we got promoted

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by jdrobbo » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:09 pm

Burnley v Watford
Watford v Norwich
Leeds v Newcastle

Eeeeek

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by tiger76 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:43 pm

jdrobbo wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:09 pm
Burnley v Watford
Watford v Norwich
Leeds v Newcastle

Eeeeek
All we can affect is our result against Watford, win that and what will be in the other 2 will be, but we have to at least give ourselves a fighting chance by beating Watford.

Ideal scenario for us, is 3 points against Watford, draw in the Watford-Norwich game, and Leeds to beat Toon.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by jurek » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:44 pm

Of course survival is still in our own hands.
That could also be said for the three teams above us.
The odds against us doing so are pretty high but as the poster pointed out
a win against Watford gives us a fighting chance.

Can we do it?
There's always a chance.

Will we do it?
Who knows.

We'll have a better idea after Tuesday.
That's if the game goes ahead.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Bosscat » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:54 pm

As the OP says its in our own hands ... and as fans we are the 12th man ...
So get behind the team instead of weeping and wailing and being Negative Norahs ...

Come on the team needs us more now than at anytime in our last 5 seasons in the Premier League ... lets look up not down ...

Come on you Premier League Clarets

UTC
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by leelad » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:54 pm

Good to see there is still some optimism around. I hope that all of our players have used the time between the Leeds game and the Watford game (fingers crossed it goes ahead) to each ask themselves the question, can I do better? The players have to want it, there are a good number of them out of contract in the Summer, do any of them want a Premier League relegation on their CV? It feels like a moment in the season where we are at a crossroads and we either stand up and be counted (players, staff, fans) or we just accept our fate that we are going to be marooned in the bottom 3. We have to play the Watford game, if nothing else to give the players a chance of winning and escaping out of the relegation zone since September. I can't see us doing that against Man Utd and Arsenal, we need a game before then to get some momentum and remind the lads of what it's like (hopefully) to win a game. After the Leeds game, I felt deflated as well and resigned to our fate, I just think now we are in last chance saloon and the Watford game is our last remaining chance of starting a recovery.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by jojomk1 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:56 pm

Was looking at the latest bookies odds earlier on today

Norwich still favourites to go down then us and Watford around 1/2 with Newcastle just short of evens

Our games in hand are obviously helping our odds just on the basis that we might actually win one

Given Newcastle have played more games than Watford surprised to see they are expected to survive by most bookies

If Watford game is on Tues, a win for either side will see odds change by some degree

21 points from the next 21 games ?

If we would have done that for the first 21 games we would have been pretty much safe

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by KRBFC » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:02 pm

few good signings and we're heavy favourites to beat the drop, the Wood money has handed us a huge lifeline to shake things up and save our bacon.
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by Elizabeth » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:16 pm

Of course survival is still in our own hands. Successfully dealing with the intensity of fitting in all those extra games and turning around the dressing room to get the necessary points to survive will for me make it Dyche’s biggest achievement at Burnley
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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by bfcjg » Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:40 pm

The next 2 weeks are crucial both on and off the pitch,get either wrong and we will really struggle.

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Re: Survival is still in our own hands !

Post by boatshed bill » Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:40 pm

if survival hangs on doing very well against 3/4 of the bottom 4 what about results vs the other 16?
Arev we at their mercy?

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