Russia Invades

lesxdp · Post by **lesxdp** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:02 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:40 pm
"Really hoping he’s overturned by his own though."

I think it's what we all want. I am resolutely naive but I remain hopeful that this will happen. The problem is how long will it take.

You would think and hope that the west will be helping these plans along, although we will never hear about it

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:05 pm

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 5273183239

More logistics info on Russian truck maintenance and how its not going to get better, but worse

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:08 pm

Why the Russian casualties are so high

An explanation of modern warfare between two reasonably matched countries

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... 9163381764

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:09 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:01 pm
I posted a link to the amount of nukes Russia had yesterday. I didn’t put any thoughts on that link but some of the debate today I would like to comment on. But it is my opinion.

Why does Putin want to draw in NATO? I think it’s in the detail of the amount of nuclear weapons he has, if he can draw in NATO, that gives him the green light to start using what appears on paper to be a large arsenal of tactical nukes. The BBC detailed around 4,500 nuclear arms he has.

The conventional war in Ukraine, is Russia winning ? The more I read, the more it suggests it is now losing the conventional war. Mariupol is literally flattened but Russias troops still don’t want to attack as they will take massive loses they cannot sustain.

I read a report today that Putin thought he had 10,000 cruise missile when he started this war, but the corruption meant someone put 9,000 cruise missile finance in their pocket and they only had 1,000 which have nearly been used up already.

So my summary today is.
Putin is running out of missiles.
He is running out of troops.
He is running out of tanks.

As long as we keep sending N-love, Russia will lose.

If they are using hypersonic missiles on targets that you wouldn’t see as the high value ones that you would expect that type of weapon used against!

I think there numbers when it comes to Nukes will exceed what is reported I think this is the figure post decommissioning some I can imagine them and also the US will have kept some back from that and not declared it. What state they are in is another thought I did read some stuff about there arsenal not being in the best state.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:14 pm

REUTERS: OneWeb have transferred their satellite launches to SpaceX er suspending Russian ties.

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... 45992?s=21

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:20 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 6:06 pm
I don't understand what real benefit the Russians will have if NATO intervene - I understand the propaganda bit but we are talking real war. Militarily it will not help the Russian cause, especially looking at their current performance. Who will side with them that can have any impact? Only China and I'm not sure it's in their interests to get involved at all.

I agree that NATO should keep out but continue to supply weapons as much as it can. It's not nice but it's the most pragmatic from our point of view.

It maybe that it gives Putin an out, as he becomes the hero in diverting a nuclear armageddon. Better to get a draw against Nato, than a points defeat against Ukraine.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:36 pm

Russian Navy Captain Ivan Putin as been killed of Ukrainian coast

https://twitter.com/simonharley/status/ ... 33632?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:37 pm

More truck logistics stuff

Comparing what the Russians are trying to do with the "Red Ball Express" in WWII (successful up to a point, but absolutely burnt through trucks at an astonishing rate) and the inevitable conclusion

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 7116718085

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:38 pm

Does anyone else think the likes of UK/US/ possibly France are offering covert strategic advice re: troop/armour movement / deployment , etc thus enabling counter attacks , ambushes and the like ? I’d imagine it’s very much a yes ( short of boots on the ground )

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:44 pm

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:38 pm
Does anyone else think the likes of UK/US/ possibly France are offering covert strategic advice re: troop/armour movement / deployment , etc thus enabling counter attacks , ambushes and the like ? I’d imagine it’s very much a yes ( short of boots on the ground )

Not even covert they have been openly passing the data on I suspect one of things the Russians have been targeting in the west of Ukraine is how the Ukrainians get This info

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:48 pm

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:44 pm
Not even covert they have been openly passing the data on I suspect one of things the Russians have been targeting in the west of Ukraine is how the Ukrainians get This info

Worth stating as well how important this info is

Russia can't mount an attack with Ukraine knowing about before the Russian unit commander does

So if Russia decide to concentrate on one target (say Kyi'v), it will be really obvious to Ukraine, giving them plenty of time to move their forces to counter it

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:52 pm

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:44 pm
Not even covert they have been openly passing the data on I suspect one of things the Russians have been targeting in the west of Ukraine is how the Ukrainians get This info

Do you reckon special forces have been deployed ?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:55 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:52 pm
Do you reckon special forces have been deployed ?

No

Why would there be any need for them?

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:00 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:48 pm
Worth stating as well how important this info is

Russia can't mount an attack with Ukraine knowing about before the Russian unit commander does

So if Russia decide to concentrate on one target (say Kyi'v), it will be really obvious to Ukraine, giving them plenty of time to move their forces to counter it

I think if Russia tried that it would suffer losses on a Hugh scale elsewhere.

Russia is losing slowly at this point, trying to concentrate its forces would be catastrophic IMO.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:55 pm
No

Why would there be any need for them?

Special forces have a multitude of roles (Ukraine also has their own), interested to know what Jarrow thinks at this point that's all.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:02 pm
Special forces have a multitude of roles (Ukraine also has their own), interested to know what Jarrow thinks at this point that's all.

NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine is a huge no/no I'd have thought

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:09 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 pm
NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine is a huge no/no I'd have thought

since when have Spec Ops followed the rules ? I'm expecting Jarrow to say the same as you but as he has served I'd (with respect to both of us) expect him to have far more knowledge and insight than us

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:12 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:09 pm
since when have Spec Ops followed the rules ? I'm expecting Jarrow to say the same as you but as he has served I'd (with respect to both of us) expect him to have far more knowledge and insight than us

Oh I know, but with all that is involved in this I just can't see NATO taking the risk

And from what I've seen online, the Ukrainian special ops troops seemed to be more than capable of all the behind the lines stuff

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:12 pm
Oh I know, but with all that is involved in this I just can't see NATO taking the risk

And from what I've seen online, the Ukrainian special ops troops seemed to be more than capable of all the behind the lines stuff

yes quite possibly - hence me asking the question. I've no feeling on it either way, just interested

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:18 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:52 pm
Do you reckon special forces have been deployed ?

Not in Ukraine no, the own goal that would provide if caught would be catastrophic, as far as I’m aware they will be getting fed data from the ELINT Aircraft that are up Rivet joints etc. now I can imagine that SF and other agencies where their pre invasion setting things up so they can get the data. Having said that we had British Soldiers driving around spying in East Germany at the height of the Cold War so you never know but I would be hugely surprised.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:22 pm

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:18 pm
Not in Ukraine no, the own goal that would provide if caught would be catastrophic, as far as I’m aware they will be getting fed data from the ELINT Aircraft that are up Rivet joints etc. now I can imagine that SF and other agencies where their pre invasion setting things up so they can get the data. Having said that we had British Soldiers driving around spying in East Germany at the height of the Cold War so you never know but I would be hugely surprised.

I know the Rivets and E3's are up but given the range on the E3 radar would you expect a U2 high above Ukraine relaying the info ? I'd read about them doing it a week or so ago

Cirrus_Minor · Post by **Cirrus_Minor** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:24 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 pm
NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine is a huge no/no I'd have thought

I would not be surprised if SAS and US equivalents are not already there. They were reported to have been there prior to the Russian invasion and were also in Syria. Obviously their presence would be covert and for obvious reasons not admitted by NATO/UK/US.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:58 pm

interesting.......https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1506 ... wkP8d1Tomg

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:04 pm

"LVIV, Ukraine March 21 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday said any compromises agreed with Russia to end the war would need to be voted on by Ukrainians in a referendum.

"The people will have to speak up and respond to this or that form of compromise. And what they (the compromises) will be is the subject of our talks and understanding between Ukraine and Russia," he said in an interview published by Ukrainian public broadcasting company Suspilne.

Issues that could be raised in any referendum could concern territories occupied by Russian forces, including Crimea, or security guarantees offered to Ukraine by countries in lieu of NATO membership, he said."

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:19 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:58 pm
interesting.......https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1506 ... wkP8d1Tomg

Doesn’t appear to be war related?

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:23 pm

NewClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:19 pm
Doesn’t appear to be war related?

I would question that given the timing

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:24 pm

gutless wankers (shows a protester in Kherson getting booted in the head)
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506 ... Fg0K1-U1VA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:26 pm

Phillips OBrian - pointing out that when U.S. advise Russia is still operating at 60% of its fixed wing capacity, it also means extreme loss in 25 days.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 20323?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:34 pm

THE GUARDIAN via BBC Front Page - Revealed $17 BILLION in global assets tied to Putin.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1506 ... 19467?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:38 pm

Kyiv Independent -Reporting on Zelenskiy “We can’t accept ultimatums from Russia… they killed our people… how could we?

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 36584?s=21

Gerry Hattrick · Post by **Gerry Hattrick** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:39 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:33 pm
this is interesting, for well over a week you couldn't track the tankers etc, just checked this morning and all are visible (as are some fighters) - there will be a point behind that for sure from NATO

Odd that Vegas.
I've had no trouble picking up any US, Uk or other European countries military transport, tanker, Rivet Joint (ELIN) etc a/c over Europe since I started taking a daily look on the 15th
I've atached screenshots of an RAF C17s and a Rivet Joint R135 as examples.
Interesting too that almost all are openly using ADS-B transponders over the whole area

The RAF C17s are regularly flying Brize Norton/Rzeszow- Jasionk/Brize Norton, but one, RRR6783 on the 18th flew from and to Birmingham International and it showed on the scheduled Arr/ Dep page of R-J Airport.

There’s an interesting article with photos and maps on:- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... raine.html about “……the US Patriot Missile system set up at a Polish airbase just 50 miles from the Ukraine border ”

Gerry Hattrick · Post by **Gerry Hattrick** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:44 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:22 pm
I know the Rivets and E3's are up but given the range on the E3 radar would you expect a U2 high above Ukraine relaying the info ? I'd read about them doing it a week or so ago

Have a look at:- https://ffdmovements.blogspot.com/
There's a list of the U"s and the 'Heavy Boys' movements in and out RAF Fairford

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:09 pm

Russian anti-ship missiles being used in their secondary role as land weapons

But this is a serious waste of a naval missile

I mean, you can't believe their stocks are so low but then again......

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 7106613251

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:09 pm
Russian anti-ship missiles being used in their secondary role as land weapons

But this is a serious waste of a naval missile

I mean, you can't believe their stocks are so low but then again......

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 7106613251

As I said earlier, I think their stocks are so low.

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:13 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:22 pm
I know the Rivets and E3's are up but given the range on the E3 radar would you expect a U2 high above Ukraine relaying the info ? I'd read about them doing it a week or so ago

I would imagine the E3s being used for fighter controllers been a while since I had briefings but I don’t think there ground looking radar is all that good if honest, although they would be able get a feed if other aircraft. U2s not surrender about if honest I can’t see any NATO country risking having any aircraft in the air above Central / east Ukraine I could see maybe western but even then it seems very risky for little gain (not knowing the full capability of U2s etc)

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:23 pm

Gerry Hattrick wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:44 pm
Have a look at:- https://ffdmovements.blogspot.com/
There's a list of the U"s and the 'Heavy Boys' movements in and out RAF Fairford

that answers my question about the U2's then !

cbx750 · Post by **cbx750** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:52 pm

There have been Global Hawk drones operating over the Black Sea, there's been one there for a few hours tonight and it's currently over Romania near the Moldova border.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 1:17 am

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:19 am

new Sushko #windofchange thread
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... BumsT2XplQ

StuffyClaret · Post by **StuffyClaret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:42 am

Prisoners for corpses...

https://kyivindependent.com/national/ho ... -russians/

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:33 am

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:19 am
new Sushko #windofchange thread
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... BumsT2XplQ

Did you read the embedded Polish thread.

That’s scary stuff right there,

I don’t think they are going to defeat Ukraine so the propaganda for then matching on Poland is scary but I don’t think they will get that far.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:47 am

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/vladimir-puti ... 59018.html
Hope the Russian people in the food queues get to know just how wealthy the man of the people comrade Putin is.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:10 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:48 pm
Worth stating as well how important this info is

Russia can't mount an attack with Ukraine knowing about before the Russian unit commander does

So if Russia decide to concentrate on one target (say Kyi'v), it will be really obvious to Ukraine, giving them plenty of time to move their forces to counter it

What is this intelligence. Satellite imagery, communications intercepts, spies/observers?

Obviously we are not going to know the details until it's safe to tell us (knowledge of the WW2 Enigma intercepts wasn't publicly available until the 1970s) but it's a fascinating subject, particularly how you use that intelligence without compromising its source (example from Enigma, if you decipher a German communication then act on it, will the Germans realise your source of info and therefore change their codes so preventing further deciphering. This nearly happened in 1941).

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:14 am

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:33 am
I don’t think they are going to defeat Ukraine so the propaganda for then matching on Poland is scary but I don’t think they will get that far.

And even if they did defeat the Ukrainian Govt, by flattening every city and large town, they still couldn't hold the whole country. Nearly a month on and they have yet to deliver the key military objectives they had planned to take during the first week. Also, their losses certainly aren't what they were expecting, and this is a massive understatement. Any further 'expansionist' ambitions, like marching into Poland, are simply for the birds.

Firthy · Post by **Firthy** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:00 am

Billy Balfour wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:14 am
And even if they did defeat the Ukrainian Govt, by flattening every city and large town, they still couldn't hold the whole country. Nearly a month on and they have yet to deliver the key military objectives they had planned to take during the first week. Also, their losses certainly aren't what they were expecting, and this is a massive understatement. Any further 'expansionist' ambitions, like marching into Poland, are simply for the birds.

No way that Russia will achieve it's objectives if the West keep up the supply of weapons to the Ukraine. I just pray that Putin finds a way out without losing too much face otherwise this will drag on and more pointless lives lost. IMO the biggest problem will be the continuing sanctions against Russia if and when this is all over and Putin is still in charge.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:35 am

Either the people that that mole works for are completely detached from reality (perfectly possible judging by the stuff coming out from various Russian embassies and diplomats) or its some devious GRU counter intelligence coup

There is no way that anyone remotely serious think Russia can do anything other than get bogged down in Ukraine, and the idea that they have troops available to threaten Poland is pure fantasy.

It looks like its all designed to get us hot and bothered in the West, and should be treated as such

IMHO of course!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:41 am

Hipper wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:10 am
What is this intelligence. Satellite imagery, communications intercepts, spies/observers?

Obviously we are not going to know the details until it's safe to tell us (knowledge of the WW2 Enigma intercepts wasn't publicly available until the 1970s) but it's a fascinating subject, particularly how you use that intelligence without compromising its source (example from Enigma, if you decipher a German communication then act on it, will the Germans realise your source of info and therefore change their codes so preventing further deciphering. This nearly happened in 1941).

This is a basic satellite, not military at all, and its spotted Russian artillery positions north of Irpin

https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes/status/ ... 1874903047

Anything military will be far better than this, plus at least one Russian General has been killed because he used his mobile phone and gave away his position

It will be interested to see if there is a study done on the battlefield information after this, because I suspect it might become a "how not to conduct battlefield signal security", certainly from the Russian side

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:45 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:41 am
This is a basic satellite, not military at all, and its spotted Russian artillery positions north of Irpin

https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes/status/ ... 1874903047

Anything military will be far better than this, plus at least one Russian General has been killed because he used his mobile phone and gave away his position

It will be interested to see if there is a study done on the battlefield information after this, because I suspect it might become a "how not to conduct battlefield signal security", certainly from the Russian side

I assume this would be studied in Military academies and Universities for years to come.
I believe the Falklands war was, and still is, studied to this day by a lot of people, including weapons manufacturers.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:59 am

It's crazy to think how times have changed in war.

Reading that Russian Soldiers have been identified by their bank card and evidence they have shopped in a countries supermarket which they are invading. Old war films show soldiers stealing from farms etc.. that didn't have the army supplies.
A General being killed because he used his mobile.

It's just bonkers.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:02 am

Quickenthetempo wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:59 am
It's crazy to think how times have changed in war.

Reading that Russian Soldiers have been identified by their bank card and evidence they have shopped in a countries supermarket which they are invading. Old war films show soldiers stealing from farms etc.. that didn't have the army supplies.
A General being killed because he used his mobile.

It's just bonkers.

They haven't changed that much

If you are unprepared, untrained and don't have the required logistically support, you fail