Russia Invades

ClaretLoup · Post by **ClaretLoup** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:44 am

Re propaganda and a balanced view.

The Mariupol situation is an interesting one and at the heart of the conflict. Geographically it is very close to the Insurgency held and Russian backed areas of Donetsk/Dombass. Btw the insurgency has created circa 1.4 million refugees about half fled to the Ukraine the other half to Russia.

In 2014 Russian insurgents briefly took the city and the Ukrainian police/armed forces had to retake it.
Here is some BBC coverage of the event. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-27153649

The takeover was supported by some Mariupol residents and halfway through the film you will hear some rather obese Russian lady tell you what she thinks of Ukrainians who had recently deposed their Russian leaning Prime Minister.

Order was restored in Mariupol by the Ukraine Government and the Azov Battalion, who are currently defending the city.
The Azov Battalion, by our standards, are not very nice people https://www.dw.com/en/the-azov-battalio ... a-61151151 Their main raison d'etre is to bump off Russians. In these marginal areas the two nationalities live side by side but extremists as always, want to exploit differences and claim superiority. You don't need too much imagination to see parallels here in the UK.

Lavrov frequently refers to the Azovs & their ilk as if they are everywhere, they aren't, but they are tolerated by the Ukrainian Government and people. They are extreme nationalists ergo anti Russian and there are some people who consider themselves to be Russian in the Ukraine. So Putin has a nice pretext for levelling the Ukraine and making 10 million of them homeless. He is not just making this justification up, he is amplifying some existing grievances for his own end, the restoration of the Russian Empire and more people and assets to loot.

Putin is bigging up the Nazis/Nationalists, the Western media is sweeping it under the carpet. That's propaganda for you.

Let's be clear though, in this country, unlike Russia you can express a balanced in view you cannot even call it a war there without being locked up.
So, democracy is at stake, the question is how democratic would a Nationalist dominated Ukraine be?

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:45 am

Hipper wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:22 am
Do you really think that?

I always think we are very lucky in this country that we can mostly say and think what we like and it can be published too within reason.

You are being taken in by the Russian propaganda in assuming that their media is like ours. It isn't. It is effectively state controlled. We have no experience of this. Our media is owned by a range of organisations, from us (BBC), to Murdoch, Barclay Brothers and a whole range of others. It's not perfect but it's likely the best that is realistically possible.

I remember someone telling me he won't watch the TV BBC News, Russian Today was much better. I once watched it and it was impressively sophisticated - it needs to be to succeed in conning us. But it still was trying to con us.

Generally our media - all media - offers a range of views, left, right, extreme left or right, third world perspective and so on. Even the left papers that were formerly pro Soviet can see what is going on although they have their own take on it.

https://socialistworker.co.uk/internati ... scalation/

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article ... -35-people

I'm not saying we mustn't think when the BBC tells us something but I'm happy to hear what they say and believe they are attempting to tell me how it is.

I was thinking as I watched Newsnight last night - if anything the BBC seems reticent to accept views that suggest Ukraine is beating the Russians; first the former British diplomat was interrupted time after time as she warned what had happened in Georgia and then the presenter kept tryin to get their own expert on the couch cut down on his positivity - Fuckuyama, was saying pretty much what I am ‘getting’ from this thread.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:51 am

ClaretLoup wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:44 am
Re propaganda and a balanced view.

The Mariupol situation is an interesting one and at the heart of the conflict. Geographically it is very close to the Insurgency held and Russian backed areas of Donetsk/Dombass. Btw the insurgency has created circa 1.4 million refugees about half fled to the Ukraine the other half to Russia.

In 2014 Russian insurgents briefly took the city and the Ukrainian police/armed forces had to retake it.
Here is some BBC coverage of the event. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-27153649

The takeover was supported by some Mariupol residents and halfway through the film you will hear some rather obese Russian lady tell you what she thinks of Ukrainians who had recently deposed their Russian leaning Prime Minister.

Order was restored in Mariupol by the Ukraine Government and the Azov Battalion, who are currently defending the city.
The Azov Battalion, by our standards, are not very nice people https://www.dw.com/en/the-azov-battalio ... a-61151151 Their main raison d'etre is to bump off Russians. In these marginal areas the two nationalities live side by side but extremists as always, want to exploit differences and claim superiority. You don't need too much imagination to see parallels here in the UK.

Lavrov frequently refers to the Azovs & their ilk as if they are everywhere, they aren't, but they are tolerated by the Ukrainian Government and people. They are extreme nationalists ergo anti Russian and there are some people who consider themselves to be Russian in the Ukraine. So Putin has a nice pretext for levelling the Ukraine and making 10 million of them homeless. He is not just making this justification up, he is amplifying some existing grievances for his own end, the restoration of the Russian Empire and more people and assets to loot.

Putin is bigging up the Nazis/Nationalists, the Western media is sweeping it under the carpet. That's propaganda for you.

Let's be clear though, in this country, unlike Russia you can express a balanced in view you cannot even call it a war there without being locked up.
So, democracy is at stake, the question is how democratic would a Nationalist dominated Ukraine be?

Isn't the whole point that its up to Ukraine to decide, not Russia?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:53 am

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:45 am
I was thinking as I watched Newsnight last night - if anything the BBC seems reticent to accept views that suggest Ukraine is beating the Russians; first the former British diplomat was interrupted time after time as she warned what had happened in Georgia and then the presenter kept tryin to get their own expert on the couch cut down on his positivity - Fuckuyama, was saying pretty much what I am ‘getting’ from this thread.

Tne BBC (and the Ministry of Defence) keep saying that Kharki'v is surrounded

You can get in and out of it by rail, which is a whole new definition of surrounded to me

They do a good job, but this is something way outside their experience zone, and it sometimes shows

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:55 am

Re-all the posts - that this thread is full of Western propaganda. First most of our sources are from academics, hardly propagandists and sources directly followed from REUTERS - the WORLD news feed; others like NEXTA and others are smaller versions of the same. We have our own ‘researchers’ qualified to spot and sort hard news from opinion and propaganda - this thread IS WHAT IS HAPPENING, not what we want to happen, and what leading advisors are advising.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:57 am

Worth mentioning as well that to Ukraine, its been at war with Russia since 2014 anyway

Again worth mentioning, that in 2014 Russia invaded (well, its claimed it didn't, but it did) and seized Crimea and tried to seize the Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Lutkansk. And they had to intervene probably in Donetsk and Luthansk or the Ukrainians would have taken it all back

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:23 pm

REUTERS: Ukrainian advisors saying Russian invasion will ‘break down’ April.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 56259?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:27 pm

Journalist Igor Kossov - the mayor of Irpin has reported White Phosphorus was dropped in the area last night.

https://twitter.com/igorkossov/status/1 ... 88002?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:32 pm

Not directly connected to the war itself (its a climate decision), but Dutch Bank ING will no longer finance new oil or gas projects, the main source of Russian wealth.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 06055?s=21

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:40 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:57 am
Worth mentioning as well that to Ukraine, its been at war with Russia since 2014 anyway

Again worth mentioning, that in 2014 Russia invaded (well, its claimed it didn't, but it did) and seized Crimea and tried to seize the Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Lutkansk. And they had to intervene probably in Donetsk and Luthansk or the Ukrainians would have taken it all back

I think it's worth mentioning also that after Crimea 2014 we were all enjoying a "wonderful" World Cup in Russia 2018 because nothing was done about that piece of business, look where we are 4 years later, will be interesting to see where we are for the next World Cup in 2026 in regard to Russia vs the rest of the world, well the West.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:46 pm

Phillips OBrian - following up on yesterdays counter attacks North of Kyiv. Russian troops around Bucha are now fully encircled by Ukrainian forces “Russia will have to move heaven and earth” to break the ‘siege’.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 95556?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:46 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:40 pm
I think it's worth mentioning also that after Crimea 2014 we were all enjoying a "wonderful" World Cup in Russia 2018 because nothing was done about that piece of business, look where we are 4 years later, will be interesting to see where we are for the next World Cup in 2026 in regard to Russia vs the rest of the world, well the West.

Yes, and to do nothing then was clearly a mistake

I mean, the learn the lessons from history stuff is always relevant because, well, it just is

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:49 pm

https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1 ... 6736989207

Chinas flagship rail route to Europe inoperable because it goes through Russia and Belarus, and now has to go by sea (which is struggling)

China not likely to be happy about this, and be interesting to see who they blame for this

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:50 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:40 pm
I think it's worth mentioning also that after Crimea 2014 we were all enjoying a "wonderful" World Cup in Russia 2018 because nothing was done about that piece of business, look where we are 4 years later, will be interesting to see where we are for the next World Cup in 2026 in regard to Russia vs the rest of the world, well the West.

There is little doubt our lack of resolve over Crimea’s direct consequence is what is now happening in Ukraine itself - many (me included) at the time thought it was a strategic disaster for NATO; simply because Crimea gave Russia so much control over the region - if Ukraine is successful (and most indications are they will be) Crimea absolutely needs to be returned to them.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:50 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:46 pm
Phillips OBrian - following up on yesterdays counter attacks North of Kyiv. Russian troops around Bucha are now fully encircled by Ukrainian forces “Russia will have to move heaven and earth” to break the ‘siege’.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 95556?s=21

Need more confirmation I think with that one

Clearly that is what the Ukrainian counter attack was meant to achieve, and perfectly possible its succeeded, but need some more confirmation from different sources

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:50 pm
Need more confirmation I think with that one

Clearly that is what the Ukrainian counter attack was meant to achieve, and perfectly possible its succeeded, but need some more confirmation from different sources

Quite agree, but it does seem to fit yesterdays Breaking news… so, ‘cautious optimism’ at this point regarding this.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:56 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:53 pm
Quite agree, but it does seem to fit yesterdays Breaking news… so, ‘cautious optimism’ at this point regarding this.

Having read about "pockets" during WWII, very hard to actually seal them, and motivated troops often got out, but without their equipment

Also very hard for the forces who have made the pocket to resist attempts to break into it to rescue the troops, and quite possible that they get pocketed themselves

This is where its all about each sides reserves, and when and how they are deployed

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:56 pm

Phillips OBrian retweet - the man who first employed Putin to the Kremlin has quit Russia over the war, he had been working as Russia’s climate envoy, but has now left Russia.

https://twitter.com/rprose/status/15066 ... 21451?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:04 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:56 pm
Having read about "pockets" during WWII, very hard to actually seal them, and motivated troops often got out, but without their equipment

Also very hard for the forces who have made the pocket to resist attempts to break into it to rescue the troops, and quite possible that they get pocketed themselves

This is where its all about each sides reserves, and when and how they are deployed

As this is breaking, of course some of the sources are yet to appear in official agency reports. However as we have seen several times already… this could well be tomorrow’s official news (from source up). As for breakouts; again if we can rely on the reported Russian communication interception from the area (posted earlier this morning) - the Russian moral will be wafer thin ( report to superiors - ‘ little food, no supply chain reaching and bombed by Russian missiles’) and is not suggestive that they will be break out on their own initiative.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:06 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:04 pm
As this is breaking, of course some of the sources are yet to appear in official agency reports. However as we have seen several times already… this could well be tomorrow’s official news (from source up). As for breakouts; again if we can rely on the reported Russian communication interception from the area (posted earlier this morning) - the Russian moral will be wafer thin ( report to superiors - ‘ little food, no supply chain reaching and bombed by Russian missiles’) and is not suggestive that they will be break out on their own initiative.

Oh, I agree with all that

There is a reason the Ukrainians are attacking here, its the bit where the Russians really have struggled to do anything other than look completely amateurish

Like you say, optimism that this could be true, but the key will be closing the pocket with the prisoners and equipment losses that would entail to the Russians

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:10 pm

NEXTA - Putin urges Gazprom in Europe to convert sales into Rubles ‘as soon as possible’ - this is manna from heaven for the West as it seems to be concrete proof that Russia is now running out of ‘ready’ financial reserves .

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 62912?s=21

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:10 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:37 am
Not totally convinced by that.

Some made sense but it suggests we are going to interfere with Chinese ships as they offload oil in the Mediterranean?

Mr Zeihan is a world leading geopolitical analyst, however I find he goes a bit to far in his analysis at times. However he did say Russia would attack Ukraine and why .he also explained why they needed to get it done now. With its young population falling in numbers year on year, Russia could not put together an army big enough to take Ukraine by 2030 or beyond.

My take from his video, Russia is going to struggle to sell its oil going forward to anyone.

Putin has cut his countries future lifeline of cash.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:12 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:10 pm
Mr Zeihan is a world leading geopolitical analyst, however I find he goes a bit to far in his analysis at times. However he did say Russia would attack Ukraine and why .he also explained why they needed to get it done now. With its young population falling in numbers year on year, Russia could not put together an army big enough to take Ukraine by 2030 or beyond.

My take from his video, Russia is going to struggle to sell its oil going forward to anyone.

Putin has cut his countries future lifeline of cash.

Tweeted it a bit further up, but China are obeying the sanctions by not using their "Silk Road" railway project (a serious massive investment by the Chinese btw) as it has to go through Russia and Belarus

If they are doing that with a chinese flagship project, find it hard to believe they will aid Russia dodge sanctions

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:15 pm

Phillips OBrian with another intercept - this one with audio track. The butcher of Mariupol ranting at a junior officer, “cut off their ears”: as OBrian himself points out… not great for army moral.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 09609?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:18 pm

Phillips OBrain (again) Pentagon now acknowledging that frost bite is becoming a serious issue for Russian units cut off from their supply chains.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 53796?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:21 pm

REUTERS: Chubais leaves post of ‘Special representative’ to Putin and quits Russia.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 53960?s=21

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:49 pm
https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1 ... 6736989207

Chinas flagship rail route to Europe inoperable because it goes through Russia and Belarus, and now has to go by sea (which is struggling)

China not likely to be happy about this, and be interesting to see who they blame for this

I read yesterday the Belorussian rail workers have sabotaged the railways to stop trains going into Ukraine . Perhaps it’s part of the same action. Brave workers who ever they are.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:23 pm

NEXTA: Russia’s puppet in Crimea intends to nationalise companies owned by Ukraine in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 97413?s=21

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:25 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:12 pm
Tweeted it a bit further up, but China are obeying the sanctions by not using their "Silk Road" railway project (a serious massive investment by the Chinese btw) as it has to go through Russia and Belarus

If they are doing that with a chinese flagship project, find it hard to believe they will aid Russia dodge sanctions

Because Oil is bought on the world markets, his information is likely to be correct that they have bought oil at cut prices and the ships can be tracked using the ship tracking apps.

Mr Zeihans info is normally close to what’s going on in the world.

He can over sell it at times.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:27 pm

OTHER NEWS - 5p/litre off fuel duty until next March (Andrew Neil tweet)

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/15066 ... 24488?s=21

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:27 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:50 pm
There is little doubt our lack of resolve over Crimea’s direct consequence is what is now happening in Ukraine itself - many (me included) at the time thought it was a strategic disaster for NATO; simply because Crimea gave Russia so much control over the region - if Ukraine is successful (and most indications are they will be) Crimea absolutely needs to be returned to them.

Obviously I have no idea what the outcome will be, at the beginning of this I (probably like many) thought the Russians would "sweep" across the Ukraine, take strategic targets and by now would have been in place with people watching/complaining and putting sanctions to work. It quickly became apparent that wasn't the case but I'm still not convinced yet that Ukraine will prevail, I certainly hope they do but it's some giant defeating accomplishment if they do.

We all know that Putin doesn't think like most normal people, I've been in Russia a lot and living there for awhile, I have Russian friends, socialized with them, it didn't take me long to realize I was different in my thinking to them in regard to the wider world and that at school age, propaganda had a profound effect on them and what they believed. Some of this experience still makes me wonder in how this will eventually work itself out, like a few have mentioned I don't see a quick fix either way to end this and it's going to be a drawn out affair, difficult to see Ukraine giving up that much. I don't think there's much chance of them seeing Crimea back, Russia won't back out without something, probably including territory to the east.

The only other option is that the Russians themselves interfere and remove Putin, while this is an option most of the west are hoping for I think it's a big ask but I wont be shocked if it happens but I will be somewhat surprised.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:31 pm

OTHER NEWS: VAT removed on energy efficient measures (like solar panels) MONEY SAVING EXPERT

https://twitter.com/moneysavingexp/stat ... 33703?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:36 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:27 pm
Obviously I have no idea what the outcome will be, at the beginning of this I (probably like many) thought the Russians would "sweep" across the Ukraine, take strategic targets and by now would have been in place with people watching/complaining and putting sanctions to work. It quickly became apparent that wasn't the case but I'm still not convinced yet that Ukraine will prevail, I certainly hope they do but it's some giant defeating accomplishment if they do.

We all know that Putin doesn't think like most normal people, I've been in Russia a lot and living there for awhile, I have Russian friends, socialized with them, it didn't take me long to realize I was different in my thinking to them in regard to the wider world and that at school age, propaganda had a profound effect on them and what they believed. Some of this experience still makes me wonder in how this will eventually work itself out, like a few have mentioned I don't see a quick fix either way to end this and it's going to be a drawn out affair, difficult to see Ukraine giving up that much. I don't think there's much chance of them seeing Crimea back, Russia won't back out without something, probably including territory to the east.

The only other option is that the Russians themselves interfere and remove Putin, while this is an option most of the west are hoping for I think it's a big ask but I wont be shocked if it happens but I will be somewhat surprised.

Yeah

I don't see how Russia gives up Crimea, or any territory

I don't see how Ukraine will count itself as safe without Crimea

Any peace deal is going to flounder on that I suspect

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:37 pm

ELINT NEWS: Footage of Russian Bastion rockets (they say) being fired into Ukraine. (Looks like a very warm part of the world to me?).

https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/150 ... 09440?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:21 pm

Sottpark1 ! wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:55 pm
Not a chance of Russia giving up Crimea and particularly their naval base at Sevastopol they had a lease on it until 2042 but with the pro Western government coming to power in 2014 they took actions to secure it.People need to get it into their heads that Russia is a military state and thinks like one and the sooner we adjust our behaviour the Sooner we can hopefully face them down !

Hitler had far more ‘untouchable’ assets in 1944, not so many in 1946.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:23 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:31 pm
OTHER NEWS: VAT removed on energy efficient measures (like solar panels) MONEY SAVING EXPERT

https://twitter.com/moneysavingexp/stat ... 33703?s=21

I mentioned the other day, I tried to book an on-site visit to get solar installed, before the VAT decrease they were booked up for months.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:25 pm

REUTERS: German Chancellor tells Putin directly, do not use chemical weapons in talks between the two.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 21483?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:30 pm

Phillips OBrien - local authorities confirm encirclements reported earlier north of Kyiv and Ukrainian’s pushing from the South.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 09859?s=21
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 57448?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:32 pm

REUTERS LIVE: WHO report on Ukraine, COVID and local health

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 97545?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:34 pm

REUTERS: NATO agree summit to significantly bolster Eastern defences.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 36263?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:46 pm

Further to Putin’s instruction for Gazprom to change payment into Rubles at the earliest opportunity, Putin now seeks to make all Gas payments from ‘unfriendly’ countries Ruble only.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 25226?s=21

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:47 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:36 pm
Yeah

I don't see how Russia gives up Crimea, or any territory

I don't see how Ukraine will count itself as safe without Crimea

Any peace deal is going to flounder on that I suspect

I know you are keeping an eye on Russian loses on the website.. it’s now over 1700, for those who havnt been on the site, there is a link to a photo of each piece of kit as evidence. That means actual loses are going to be greater.

If we assume that’s going to be 15-20 % .

US start deliveries of 9000 anti tank weapons, UK has sent over 4,000 N-love ones too.

I honestly don’t see the numbers of kit Russia loses a day dropping any time soon.

Another 4 weeks of this and Russias army will be degraded by almost 40%.

I honestly think at that point Russian troops have to start to drop back and regroup, at that turning point we will have to see what the Ukrainians do then. Do they push on?? If we the west continue to supply arms I think they could push Russians back as far as they the will to do.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:48 pm

REUTERS: Sanctions lead to delayed payments Russian prorate Eurobond payments.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 20424?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:52 pm

BBC now confirming Russian International envoy, Chubias (the most senior official to quit the Kremlin, so far) has quit Russia.

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/150 ... 44488?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:00 pm

Anyone who knows me, knows Peterloo is a period of history very close to my heart (and much research). The Peterloo Memorial Campaign have turned their attention to the crisis and are organising a SING FOR UKRAINE event, at the Ukrainian Cultural Centre in Cheetham, details here.

https://twitter.com/peterloomemoria/sta ... 48652?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:06 pm

REUTERS: Germany are sending Strela missiles to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1506 ... 33380?s=21

StuffyClaret · Post by **StuffyClaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:09 pm

They say that the best form of defence is to attack....so on that basis, would there be any logic in the Ukrainians sending a few well targeted missiles into Crimea or even into Russia itself?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:11 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:47 pm
I know you are keeping an eye on Russian loses on the website.. it’s now over 1700, for those who havnt been on the site, there is a link to a photo of each piece of kit as evidence. That means actual loses are going to be greater.

If we assume that’s going to be 15-20 % .

US start deliveries of 9000 anti tank weapons, UK has sent over 4,000 N-love ones too.

I honestly don’t see the numbers of kit Russia loses a day dropping any time soon.

Another 4 weeks of this and Russias army will be degraded by almost 40%.

I honestly think at that point Russian troops have to start to drop back and regroup, at that turning point we will have to see what the Ukrainians do then. Do they push on?? If we the west continue to supply arms I think they could push Russians back as far as they the will to do.

I don't know what Russia is going to do when its army hits the stage where it is operational incapacitated

Thing is, you can conduct defence with a lot less capability than offence, so they could perhaps hang on, but I just don't know

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:28 pm

Roman Abramovich 'opens talks to buy new club' while trying to sell Chelsea
Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich was hit with heavy sanctions by the UK government following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and is in the process of selling the Stamford Bridge club. Roman Abramovich has allegedly opened talks to buy a new football club while still in the process of trying to sell Chelsea.

The billionaire put the Stamford Bridge club up for sale in early March before he was hit with sanctions by the UK government. Abramovich had his assets frozen as a direct result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, due to his ties with Vladamir Putin, preventing him from making money via Chelsea.

According to Turkish publication Fanatik, the Russian is apparently keen to remain within the football industry and has now started negotiations to buy Super Lig club Goztepe.
Turkey is currently not applying sanctions to Russians, and the reports of Abramovich opening negotiations with Goztepe come just 48 hours after his £750million super-yacht Eclipse docked at a port in the resort of Marmaris.

His other luxury yacht, My Solaris, arrived in Bodrum a day earlier, triggering a protest by a group of Ukrainians, who unsuccessfully attempted to prevent the vessel from docking aboard a small motorboat.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:30 pm

StuffyClaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:09 pm
They say that the best form of defence is to attack....so on that basis, would there be any logic in the Ukrainians sending a few well targeted missiles into Crimea or even into Russia itself?

Without knowing the political feeling on the ground in Crimea that is a hard call to make, we can even hope for a popular uprising if things continue on the current trajectory. Firing at Russia at the moment makes little sense as Ukraine is seemingly winning the war for hearts and minds among the Russian populace as a whole.