Russia Invades
Re: Russia Invades
Apologies if this has previously been posted.
This is the 1st of a 5 part interview with a British Volunteer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4
This is the 1st of a 5 part interview with a British Volunteer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1 ... -3XYA&s=19
A report on Russian mobilisation was published online, and then pulled, but the internet never forgets.
Some interesting takes from it
A report on Russian mobilisation was published online, and then pulled, but the internet never forgets.
Some interesting takes from it
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/KadirHama/status/16 ... UNmDA&s=19
The German chancellor ranting about Putin being a warmonger was not on my 2023 bingo card, I'll be honest.
The German chancellor ranting about Putin being a warmonger was not on my 2023 bingo card, I'll be honest.
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Re: Russia Invades
https://www.channel4.com/news/inside-fi ... ith-russia
Bit on Finlands exercise with US troops in Finland as part of NATO
Bit on Finlands exercise with US troops in Finland as part of NATO
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Re: Russia Invades
PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.
They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to "personal animosity" towards them.
They accuse him of being drunk while doing so, speaking to him as if he is a subordinate. This is a complete demoralisation of the Russian Armed Forces who should not be any close to tolerating such behaviour of a PMC.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... XbpxEsmRVg
They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to "personal animosity" towards them.
They accuse him of being drunk while doing so, speaking to him as if he is a subordinate. This is a complete demoralisation of the Russian Armed Forces who should not be any close to tolerating such behaviour of a PMC.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... XbpxEsmRVg
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Re: Russia Invades
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152
Absolutely no idea if this is true or not to be honest
We will have to wait and see
Absolutely no idea if this is true or not to be honest
We will have to wait and see
Re: Russia Invades
According to the latest IoWS there appears to be a bit more activity then of late on various locations on the front line but whether any of these are more then that or the Russians are over playing something who knows at the moment.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... une-4-2023
It may be that this great Ukraine Spring Offensive doesn't exist and is just rhetoric to put and keep the Russians on the defensive. I can't see how the Ukrainians could build up a big force to attack a specific region without the Russians finding out. So surprise of location is out meaning the only other way is if they find some weak spots in the Russian defences which requires a few probing activities first I would have thought.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... une-4-2023
It may be that this great Ukraine Spring Offensive doesn't exist and is just rhetoric to put and keep the Russians on the defensive. I can't see how the Ukrainians could build up a big force to attack a specific region without the Russians finding out. So surprise of location is out meaning the only other way is if they find some weak spots in the Russian defences which requires a few probing activities first I would have thought.
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Re: Russia Invades
You will know if the Ukrainian offensive is successful when you start seeing pictures of Ukrainian troops in geo-located shots in areas they are behind the current front line
What we won't know for a while is if its even started, whether its more shaping attacks, or it has actually failed
One thing you can absolutely guarantee is that if Russia says its failed, then you need a lot more evidence than that
What we won't know for a while is if its even started, whether its more shaping attacks, or it has actually failed
One thing you can absolutely guarantee is that if Russia says its failed, then you need a lot more evidence than that
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Re: Russia Invades
Looks to have been some going on around zaporizhzhia region and has been for days . And when RUS claim that they’ve both “ inflicted heavy casualties in manpower and armour “ and also mention “ very heavy fighting with the enemy “ that RUS is also taking “ very heavy “ casualties indeed regardless of progress or not .
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Re: Russia Invades
my grandad used to drive a yugo that handled worse than that.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:25 pmhttps://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 7067171840
Now that is proper camouflage
Re: Russia Invades
I spot a minor flaw in that idea. Houses don't normally move.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:25 pmhttps://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 7067171840
Now that is proper camouflage
The other danger is that even if the Russians find a bunch of houses and it's not on their (probably out of date) maps, they'll just blast the houses to bits anyway.
Re: Russia Invades
Reports and video that someone blew up the Nova Kahovka dam. Sure I spelled that wrong. If true will be major flooding down stream and cooling issues for the major nuke plant.
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Re: Russia Invades
Some accounts (well, most of them) are saying that blowing up the dam will also affect the water supply to the Crimea along the Dnipro-Crimea canal
If that is true, then this is going to cause them real problems going forward
Course, the other way of looking at it is that according to Russia law and the constitution, Putin has destroyed vital infrastructure in one Russian Province (Kherson) and severely restricted the water supply in another Russian province (Crimea)
Looking at it like that as well, then you wonder just how worried are the Russians about actually holding on to the Crimea?
(but some accounts with blue ticks (since Space Karen took over these could be absolutely any fantasist unfortunately) are saying that the water supply is unaffected because the canal comes in north of the dam
If that is true, then this is going to cause them real problems going forward
Course, the other way of looking at it is that according to Russia law and the constitution, Putin has destroyed vital infrastructure in one Russian Province (Kherson) and severely restricted the water supply in another Russian province (Crimea)
Looking at it like that as well, then you wonder just how worried are the Russians about actually holding on to the Crimea?
(but some accounts with blue ticks (since Space Karen took over these could be absolutely any fantasist unfortunately) are saying that the water supply is unaffected because the canal comes in north of the dam
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Re: Russia Invades
Course, the most likely reason they blew it up now is that they are about to retreat from the area and want to cause as much damage and disruption as possible (not necessarily to do damage to Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, will also slow down and disrupt Ukrainian military plans)
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Re: Russia Invades
Wouldn’t blowing this dam not technically do more harm to RUS than UKR? Could UKR have blown it ? I think either side is capable of anything tbh , though far as I can make out this damaged the “ left bank “ which is the Russian side ?
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Re: Russia Invades
Why would Ukraine blow it up?AlargeClaret wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:06 amWouldn’t blowing this dam not technically do more harm to RUS than UKR? Could UKR have blown it ? I think either side is capable of anything tbh , though far as I can make out this damaged the “ left bank “ which is the Russian side ?
Its an essential part of Ukrainian infrastructure and will cost billions to replace - its an economic and environmental catastrophe for Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades
But don’t RUS see it the same way? As they seem to think they own Kherson regardless . I can’t see how it could benefit Crimea and surely it would make RUS “overall task” far more difficult ? ie they’ll now never take Kherson back . I’d say it’s 80/20 likely the Russians , though it could be another Zelensky call for more arms ? I wish I trusted our own propaganda a little bit more to cut through the RUS bullsh1t without totally compromising what’s actually happening.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:16 amWhy would Ukraine blow it up?
Its an essential part of Ukrainian infrastructure and will cost billions to replace - its an economic and environmental catastrophe for Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades
There’s no real long lasting reason for the Russians to blow it either all options are open for this. Both sides have short term gains from it being blown but long term it benefits nobody, Could it have just broke due to damage received during the war maybe?Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:16 amWhy would Ukraine blow it up?
Its an essential part of Ukrainian infrastructure and will cost billions to replace - its an economic and environmental catastrophe for Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades
I read something that it was holding more water back than it had ever done before. I guess until facts are known, it could simply be the dam broke due to extra pressure and previous damage.JarrowClaret wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:52 amThere’s no real long lasting reason for the Russians to blow it either all options are open for this. Both sides have short term gains from it being blown but long term it benefits nobody, Could it have just broke due to damage received during the war maybe?
Re: Russia Invades
Breaking dams is not without precedent in war making. Apart from the obvious Dambuster raid the British broke some dams in the south of Holland in order to hamper the Germans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
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Re: Russia Invades
Fear of the Germans blowing the Roer Dams also dragged Allied troops into the Hurtagen Forest - stopped them dead in the autumn/winter of 1944-45Hipper wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:45 amBreaking dams is not without precedent in war making. Apart from the obvious Dambuster raid the British broke some dams in the south of Holland in order to hamper the Germans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
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Re: Russia Invades
Its possible (seen it from someone on twitter) that its been mined for a while and it was blown up accidentallyJarrowClaret wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:52 amThere’s no real long lasting reason for the Russians to blow it either all options are open for this. Both sides have short term gains from it being blown but long term it benefits nobody, Could it have just broke due to damage received during the war maybe?
What I would say its certainly not been done intentionally by Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades
I think the Russians blew this very dam in 1941 as well.Hipper wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:45 amBreaking dams is not without precedent in war making. Apart from the obvious Dambuster raid the British broke some dams in the south of Holland in order to hamper the Germans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
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Re: Russia Invades
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65821052
Pretty solid, but the only thing I would question is just how feasible is it for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro with a contested amphibious assault
Its one of the biggest rivers in Europe and the last contested crossing of a river this big would have been the 1945 crossing of the Rhine in which the Allies had huge numerical, logistical and technical superiority and had complete control of the air
Pretty solid, but the only thing I would question is just how feasible is it for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro with a contested amphibious assault
Its one of the biggest rivers in Europe and the last contested crossing of a river this big would have been the 1945 crossing of the Rhine in which the Allies had huge numerical, logistical and technical superiority and had complete control of the air
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Re: Russia Invades
From a couple of reports that I have heard, I'm taking the view that it's down to poor maintenance by the Russians that has led to the dam collapsing.
It benefits no one to blow it.
Apparently it's been massively overloaded for a while and the Russians have been trying to lower the water level.
At one point in May the water was flowing over the top which it was never designed to do.
It benefits no one to blow it.
Apparently it's been massively overloaded for a while and the Russians have been trying to lower the water level.
At one point in May the water was flowing over the top which it was never designed to do.
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Re: Russia Invades
Drone attack in Moscow may have targeted homes of Russian intelligence officials, U.S. officials say
The drones appeared to target suspected homes of officers with Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR. A Ukrainian official said Ukraine was not "directly" involved.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/16662 ... XbpxEsmRVg
The drones appeared to target suspected homes of officers with Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR. A Ukrainian official said Ukraine was not "directly" involved.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/16662 ... XbpxEsmRVg
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Re: Russia Invades
Oh, you have proof?Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:49 amIts possible (seen it from someone on twitter) that its been mined for a while and it was blown up accidentally
What I would say its certainly not been done intentionally by Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades
This war is becoming extremely destructive and problematic on a global scale. Wheat prices went up 3% immediately after the dam was breached. That's because the consequences are that water supplies for irrigation, drinking and other uses will be affected damaging Ukraine's agricultural production capability. OTH Predictions are that over the summer the riverbed will dry up potentially making an assault over a relatively more lightly defended area a possibility, plus it reduces the water supply to Crimea via the canal which the Ukrainians had cut off after 2014. Nonetheless Russia coped without water from mainland Ukraine before.
Given Russia's tactic of hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, power generation, water supplies ( they sabotaged these when they left Kherson) and railways added to their wanton destruction and laying waste of cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut and the surrounding areas, if you had to put money on who was responsible you would probably put it on the Russkies.
Given Russia's tactic of hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, power generation, water supplies ( they sabotaged these when they left Kherson) and railways added to their wanton destruction and laying waste of cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut and the surrounding areas, if you had to put money on who was responsible you would probably put it on the Russkies.
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Re: Russia Invades
No
I'll just repeat, its in Ukraine, its an essential part of the river management for a huge part of their agricultural production
The bridge that is part of the dam (which is crossable by all types of military equipment) is now down as well
There is no chance that Russia where going to cross it to invade, but plenty of reasons for Ukraine to use it, both as a springboard for an offensive and to supply their troops once they are across it
The argument for the Russians not blowing it up is that they have had to pull their troops back from the southern bank of the Dnipro downriver from the dam, which means they can shell slightly less of Ukraine north or the river
I find that argument less than convincing
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Re: Russia Invades
I don't know how feasible it is to say that the Dnipro (one of the biggest rivers in Europe) is going to dry up - maybe you mean the Dnipro-Crimea canal?ClaretLoup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:06 pmThis war is becoming extremely destructive and problematic on a global scale. Wheat prices went up 3% immediately after the dam was breached. That's because the consequences are that water supplies for irrigation, drinking and other uses will be affected damaging Ukraine's agricultural production capability. OTH Predictions are that over the summer the riverbed will dry up potentially making an assault over a relatively more lightly defended area a possibility, plus it reduces the water supply to Crimea via the canal which the Ukrainians had cut off after 2014. Nonetheless Russia coped without water from mainland Ukraine before.
Given Russia's tactic of hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, power generation, water supplies ( they sabotaged these when they left Kherson) and railways added to their wanton destruction and laying waste of cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut and the surrounding areas, if you had to put money on who was responsible you would probably put it on the Russkies.
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Re: Russia Invades
The graph of the height of the Dnipro before the damn was blown suggests the level was being kept intentionally high so it could do as much damage as possibleNonayforever wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:01 pmFrom a couple of reports that I have heard, I'm taking the view that it's down to poor maintenance by the Russians that has led to the dam collapsing.
It benefits no one to blow it.
Apparently it's been massively overloaded for a while and the Russians have been trying to lower the water level.
At one point in May the water was flowing over the top which it was never designed to do.
The Russian control the machinery to control that and didn't do anything
And it has to be said, there isn't any attempts by the Russian either to repair the damage or aid the Ukrainians being affected downstream (who live on the south side of the river)
When you bear in mind that by decree, those lands are now part of Russia it does rather suggest both that they know full well that is never going to happen and that they don't regard the Ukrainians who live there as worth helping
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Re: Russia Invades
From the BBC breaking news tracker
"In 2021 - before Russia's full-scale invasion - the ministry said the dam system, in Nova Kakhovka, provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares from which farmers harvested about four million tonnes of grains and oil seeds.
The dam's destruction has left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% of those in Zaporizhzhia and 30% of those in Dnipro regions without water, the ministry says"
Very unlikely that Ukraine are going to do this sort of damage to their economy
"In 2021 - before Russia's full-scale invasion - the ministry said the dam system, in Nova Kakhovka, provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares from which farmers harvested about four million tonnes of grains and oil seeds.
The dam's destruction has left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% of those in Zaporizhzhia and 30% of those in Dnipro regions without water, the ministry says"
Very unlikely that Ukraine are going to do this sort of damage to their economy
Re: Russia Invades
Percentages are one thing but how many hectares are in each of those regions? 94% and 74% are likely to be disastrous. The total is like 800,000 football pitches or almost three times the size of Lancashire!Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:54 pmFrom the BBC breaking news tracker
"In 2021 - before Russia's full-scale invasion - the ministry said the dam system, in Nova Kakhovka, provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares from which farmers harvested about four million tonnes of grains and oil seeds.
The dam's destruction has left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% of those in Zaporizhzhia and 30% of those in Dnipro regions without water, the ministry says"
Very unlikely that Ukraine are going to do this sort of damage to their economy
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Re: Russia Invades
Context
what the canals actually do
https://twitter.com/TomGiuretis/status/ ... 0967690240
Historical view of the what the area used to be before the canals were constructed
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 5132995584
This does damage the water supply to the Crimea, but it also potentially wrecks the agricultural heartland of Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades
I think Lancaster is stating on the “ balance of probabilities “ ( well I’d hope so ) that’s it’s likely to be RUS. The problem I find is that UKR are every bit as dubious as RUS in the truth stakes ( it is war so no suprise ) Just seems difficult to get balanced info as both sides exaggerate their gains and are reticent about losses .
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Re: Russia Invades
Yup, but there is also stuff like thisAlargeClaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:24 pmI think Lancaster is stating on the “ balance of probabilities “ ( well I’d hope so ) that’s it’s likely to be RUS. The problem I find is that UKR are every bit as dubious as RUS in the truth stakes ( it is war so no suprise ) Just seems difficult to get balanced info as both sides exaggerate their gains and are reticent about losses .
https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1 ... 4560731137
The damage done to the dam suggest a lot of explosives used - far more than you can get from a missile or an artillery shell
Again, as the Russians are in control of the bit where it was blown up, then it does rather suggest that they mined it and set it off (again, possibility is that it was an accident)
Its also worth noting that there isn't a lot of news from the front lines, and for all we know (due to Russia never reporting defeats and Ukraine being very careful before reporting stuff because of OPSEC) the Russians are pulling back and blew it to cover their retreat (not seeing anything concrete but its just speculation)
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Re: Russia Invades
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... 1686151427
This from the Guardian is pretty worrying about the popularity of Wagner - no point in Putin being replaced by this lot, as it will get worse, not better
This from the Guardian is pretty worrying about the popularity of Wagner - no point in Putin being replaced by this lot, as it will get worse, not better
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 2261437440
This is hopefully just sabre rattling by the Eastern members of NATO
You assume the security guarantees and an adhesion protocol will be agreed at the coming NATO summit
This is hopefully just sabre rattling by the Eastern members of NATO
You assume the security guarantees and an adhesion protocol will be agreed at the coming NATO summit
Re: Russia Invades
Russian Telegram channels claiming major Ukr attack in Zaporozhye. Claiming the counter offensive has started. Tokmak direction. Suppose things will be clearer when I wake up in the morning.
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Re: Russia Invades
As reported by a pro RUS ( though a balanced one) telegram channel . Fierce fighting with huge losses on both sides been going on since 4th June in Zap . This is their report from this morning , stating what looks like small but very solid UKR gains and quite possibly heavy RUS losses
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Re: Russia Invades
Pretty much every expert on twitter was predicting an attack in the Tokmak direction, if only because there is no natural barriers to impede a drive to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov
Its got a lot of Russian fortifications because of that, but fixed fortifications are useless without a mobile reserve, and the supply hubs for the front are being battered by Ukrainian missiles/HIMARS and artillery
Its got a lot of Russian fortifications because of that, but fixed fortifications are useless without a mobile reserve, and the supply hubs for the front are being battered by Ukrainian missiles/HIMARS and artillery
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1666513162928005127
This seems fairly legit (well, retweeted by people who know a lot more than me)
This seems fairly legit (well, retweeted by people who know a lot more than me)
Re: Russia Invades
If that is really happening then (an attack on Zaporizhia) it can be seen that the flooding of the Dnipro region has benefits for the Ukrainians too.
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Re: Russia Invades
Whether RUS or UKR blew the dam, it’s a strong PR outcome for UKR who appear to be winning the “ info wars”by a mile. With the incursions into Russia being a v good publicity /destabilisation coup, drones over the Kremlin etc . A mass punch through the RUS lines in their big offensive would be just huge for them . They also seem very keen on taking Bakhmut back. Russia look well dug in though and impossible to say if they’ve ramped up artillery/ammo production.
Re: Russia Invades
I heard on the radio that over 200 square miles were now under water, but I've seen no actual footage. Is there any?
Re: Russia Invades
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian ... ?r=US&IR=T
Interesting article regarding some of the Western munitions supplied to Ukraine.
Interesting article regarding some of the Western munitions supplied to Ukraine.
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Re: Russia Invades
Russia today reporting their usual list of “ kills” tanks etc though oddly they have omitted any mention of positions/locations , while bigging up troops bravery ,which would suggest they’ve conceded considerable ground . UKR publically announced they’re moving 30k Kherson troops to the main offensive as well .
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Re: Russia Invades
I'm no expert, but I'm guessing it's going to bloody tough going for UKR as the invaders have spent all winter planting mines and building extremely deep defences. Swift gains over many kms with Russians melting away and retreating under the slightest pressure as has been seen previously, is very unlikely as the UKR will have to tread (literally) extremely carefully. If it was me I'd probably invade Belgorod and go round the side to get at them from the rear and avoid the defences!!