Russia Invades

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SonofPog
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by SonofPog » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:41 pm

Apologies if this has previously been posted.

This is the 1st of a 5 part interview with a British Volunteer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:55 am

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1 ... -3XYA&s=19

A report on Russian mobilisation was published online, and then pulled, but the internet never forgets.
Some interesting takes from it

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Jun 03, 2023 2:49 pm

https://twitter.com/KadirHama/status/16 ... UNmDA&s=19

The German chancellor ranting about Putin being a warmonger was not on my 2023 bingo card, I'll be honest.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jun 04, 2023 7:09 pm

https://www.channel4.com/news/inside-fi ... ith-russia

Bit on Finlands exercise with US troops in Finland as part of NATO

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:10 am

PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.

They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to "personal animosity" towards them.

They accuse him of being drunk while doing so, speaking to him as if he is a subordinate. This is a complete demoralisation of the Russian Armed Forces who should not be any close to tolerating such behaviour of a PMC.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:31 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

Absolutely no idea if this is true or not to be honest

We will have to wait and see

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:05 am

According to the latest IoWS there appears to be a bit more activity then of late on various locations on the front line but whether any of these are more then that or the Russians are over playing something who knows at the moment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... une-4-2023

It may be that this great Ukraine Spring Offensive doesn't exist and is just rhetoric to put and keep the Russians on the defensive. I can't see how the Ukrainians could build up a big force to attack a specific region without the Russians finding out. So surprise of location is out meaning the only other way is if they find some weak spots in the Russian defences which requires a few probing activities first I would have thought.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:51 am

You will know if the Ukrainian offensive is successful when you start seeing pictures of Ukrainian troops in geo-located shots in areas they are behind the current front line

What we won't know for a while is if its even started, whether its more shaping attacks, or it has actually failed

One thing you can absolutely guarantee is that if Russia says its failed, then you need a lot more evidence than that

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:46 pm

Looks to have been some going on around zaporizhzhia region and has been for days . And when RUS claim that they’ve both “ inflicted heavy casualties in manpower and armour “ and also mention “ very heavy fighting with the enemy “ that RUS is also taking “ very heavy “ casualties indeed regardless of progress or not .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:25 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by yTib » Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:25 pm
https://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 7067171840

Now that is proper camouflage
my grandad used to drive a yugo that handled worse than that.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:25 pm
https://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 7067171840

Now that is proper camouflage
I spot a minor flaw in that idea. Houses don't normally move.

The other danger is that even if the Russians find a bunch of houses and it's not on their (probably out of date) maps, they'll just blast the houses to bits anyway.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue Jun 06, 2023 4:59 am

Reports and video that someone blew up the Nova Kahovka dam. Sure I spelled that wrong. If true will be major flooding down stream and cooling issues for the major nuke plant.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:29 am

Some accounts (well, most of them) are saying that blowing up the dam will also affect the water supply to the Crimea along the Dnipro-Crimea canal

If that is true, then this is going to cause them real problems going forward

Course, the other way of looking at it is that according to Russia law and the constitution, Putin has destroyed vital infrastructure in one Russian Province (Kherson) and severely restricted the water supply in another Russian province (Crimea)

Looking at it like that as well, then you wonder just how worried are the Russians about actually holding on to the Crimea?

(but some accounts with blue ticks (since Space Karen took over these could be absolutely any fantasist unfortunately) are saying that the water supply is unaffected because the canal comes in north of the dam

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:01 am

Course, the most likely reason they blew it up now is that they are about to retreat from the area and want to cause as much damage and disruption as possible (not necessarily to do damage to Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, will also slow down and disrupt Ukrainian military plans)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:06 am

Wouldn’t blowing this dam not technically do more harm to RUS than UKR? Could UKR have blown it ? I think either side is capable of anything tbh , though far as I can make out this damaged the “ left bank “ which is the Russian side ?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:16 am

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:06 am
Wouldn’t blowing this dam not technically do more harm to RUS than UKR? Could UKR have blown it ? I think either side is capable of anything tbh , though far as I can make out this damaged the “ left bank “ which is the Russian side ?
Why would Ukraine blow it up?

Its an essential part of Ukrainian infrastructure and will cost billions to replace - its an economic and environmental catastrophe for Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:49 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:16 am
Why would Ukraine blow it up?

Its an essential part of Ukrainian infrastructure and will cost billions to replace - its an economic and environmental catastrophe for Ukraine
But don’t RUS see it the same way? As they seem to think they own Kherson regardless . I can’t see how it could benefit Crimea and surely it would make RUS “overall task” far more difficult ? ie they’ll now never take Kherson back . I’d say it’s 80/20 likely the Russians , though it could be another Zelensky call for more arms ? I wish I trusted our own propaganda a little bit more to cut through the RUS bullsh1t without totally compromising what’s actually happening.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:52 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:16 am
Why would Ukraine blow it up?

Its an essential part of Ukrainian infrastructure and will cost billions to replace - its an economic and environmental catastrophe for Ukraine
There’s no real long lasting reason for the Russians to blow it either all options are open for this. Both sides have short term gains from it being blown but long term it benefits nobody, Could it have just broke due to damage received during the war maybe?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by eastcoastclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:03 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:52 am
There’s no real long lasting reason for the Russians to blow it either all options are open for this. Both sides have short term gains from it being blown but long term it benefits nobody, Could it have just broke due to damage received during the war maybe?
I read something that it was holding more water back than it had ever done before. I guess until facts are known, it could simply be the dam broke due to extra pressure and previous damage.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:45 am

Breaking dams is not without precedent in war making. Apart from the obvious Dambuster raid the British broke some dams in the south of Holland in order to hamper the Germans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:46 am

Hipper wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:45 am
Breaking dams is not without precedent in war making. Apart from the obvious Dambuster raid the British broke some dams in the south of Holland in order to hamper the Germans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
Fear of the Germans blowing the Roer Dams also dragged Allied troops into the Hurtagen Forest - stopped them dead in the autumn/winter of 1944-45

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:49 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:52 am
There’s no real long lasting reason for the Russians to blow it either all options are open for this. Both sides have short term gains from it being blown but long term it benefits nobody, Could it have just broke due to damage received during the war maybe?
Its possible (seen it from someone on twitter) that its been mined for a while and it was blown up accidentally

What I would say its certainly not been done intentionally by Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:51 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:27 pm

Hipper wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:45 am
Breaking dams is not without precedent in war making. Apart from the obvious Dambuster raid the British broke some dams in the south of Holland in order to hamper the Germans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inundation_of_Walcheren
I think the Russians blew this very dam in 1941 as well.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:54 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65821052

Pretty solid, but the only thing I would question is just how feasible is it for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro with a contested amphibious assault

Its one of the biggest rivers in Europe and the last contested crossing of a river this big would have been the 1945 crossing of the Rhine in which the Allies had huge numerical, logistical and technical superiority and had complete control of the air

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Nonayforever » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:01 pm

From a couple of reports that I have heard, I'm taking the view that it's down to poor maintenance by the Russians that has led to the dam collapsing.
It benefits no one to blow it.
Apparently it's been massively overloaded for a while and the Russians have been trying to lower the water level.
At one point in May the water was flowing over the top which it was never designed to do.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 12:09 am

Drone attack in Moscow may have targeted homes of Russian intelligence officials, U.S. officials say
The drones appeared to target suspected homes of officers with Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR. A Ukrainian official said Ukraine was not "directly" involved.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/16662 ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dermotdermot » Wed Jun 07, 2023 12:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:49 am
Its possible (seen it from someone on twitter) that its been mined for a while and it was blown up accidentally

What I would say its certainly not been done intentionally by Ukraine
Oh, you have proof?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ClaretLoup » Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:06 pm

This war is becoming extremely destructive and problematic on a global scale. Wheat prices went up 3% immediately after the dam was breached. That's because the consequences are that water supplies for irrigation, drinking and other uses will be affected damaging Ukraine's agricultural production capability. OTH Predictions are that over the summer the riverbed will dry up potentially making an assault over a relatively more lightly defended area a possibility, plus it reduces the water supply to Crimea via the canal which the Ukrainians had cut off after 2014. Nonetheless Russia coped without water from mainland Ukraine before.

Given Russia's tactic of hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, power generation, water supplies ( they sabotaged these when they left Kherson) and railways added to their wanton destruction and laying waste of cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut and the surrounding areas, if you had to put money on who was responsible you would probably put it on the Russkies.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:15 pm

dermotdermot wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 12:43 pm
Oh, you have proof?
No

I'll just repeat, its in Ukraine, its an essential part of the river management for a huge part of their agricultural production

The bridge that is part of the dam (which is crossable by all types of military equipment) is now down as well

There is no chance that Russia where going to cross it to invade, but plenty of reasons for Ukraine to use it, both as a springboard for an offensive and to supply their troops once they are across it

The argument for the Russians not blowing it up is that they have had to pull their troops back from the southern bank of the Dnipro downriver from the dam, which means they can shell slightly less of Ukraine north or the river

I find that argument less than convincing

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:16 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:06 pm
This war is becoming extremely destructive and problematic on a global scale. Wheat prices went up 3% immediately after the dam was breached. That's because the consequences are that water supplies for irrigation, drinking and other uses will be affected damaging Ukraine's agricultural production capability. OTH Predictions are that over the summer the riverbed will dry up potentially making an assault over a relatively more lightly defended area a possibility, plus it reduces the water supply to Crimea via the canal which the Ukrainians had cut off after 2014. Nonetheless Russia coped without water from mainland Ukraine before.

Given Russia's tactic of hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, power generation, water supplies ( they sabotaged these when they left Kherson) and railways added to their wanton destruction and laying waste of cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut and the surrounding areas, if you had to put money on who was responsible you would probably put it on the Russkies.
I don't know how feasible it is to say that the Dnipro (one of the biggest rivers in Europe) is going to dry up - maybe you mean the Dnipro-Crimea canal?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:20 pm

Nonayforever wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:01 pm
From a couple of reports that I have heard, I'm taking the view that it's down to poor maintenance by the Russians that has led to the dam collapsing.
It benefits no one to blow it.
Apparently it's been massively overloaded for a while and the Russians have been trying to lower the water level.
At one point in May the water was flowing over the top which it was never designed to do.
The graph of the height of the Dnipro before the damn was blown suggests the level was being kept intentionally high so it could do as much damage as possible

The Russian control the machinery to control that and didn't do anything

And it has to be said, there isn't any attempts by the Russian either to repair the damage or aid the Ukrainians being affected downstream (who live on the south side of the river)

When you bear in mind that by decree, those lands are now part of Russia it does rather suggest both that they know full well that is never going to happen and that they don't regard the Ukrainians who live there as worth helping

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:54 pm

From the BBC breaking news tracker

"In 2021 - before Russia's full-scale invasion - the ministry said the dam system, in Nova Kakhovka, provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares from which farmers harvested about four million tonnes of grains and oil seeds.

The dam's destruction has left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% of those in Zaporizhzhia and 30% of those in Dnipro regions without water, the ministry says"

Very unlikely that Ukraine are going to do this sort of damage to their economy

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dibraidio » Wed Jun 07, 2023 2:20 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:54 pm
From the BBC breaking news tracker

"In 2021 - before Russia's full-scale invasion - the ministry said the dam system, in Nova Kakhovka, provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares from which farmers harvested about four million tonnes of grains and oil seeds.

The dam's destruction has left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% of those in Zaporizhzhia and 30% of those in Dnipro regions without water, the ministry says"

Very unlikely that Ukraine are going to do this sort of damage to their economy
Percentages are one thing but how many hectares are in each of those regions? 94% and 74% are likely to be disastrous. The total is like 800,000 football pitches or almost three times the size of Lancashire!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:42 pm

dibraidio wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 2:20 pm
Percentages are one thing but how many hectares are in each of those regions? 94% and 74% are likely to be disastrous. The total is like 800,000 football pitches or almost three times the size of Lancashire!
Context

what the canals actually do

https://twitter.com/TomGiuretis/status/ ... 0967690240

Historical view of the what the area used to be before the canals were constructed

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 5132995584

This does damage the water supply to the Crimea, but it also potentially wrecks the agricultural heartland of Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:24 pm

dermotdermot wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 12:43 pm
Oh, you have proof?
I think Lancaster is stating on the “ balance of probabilities “ ( well I’d hope so ) that’s it’s likely to be RUS. The problem I find is that UKR are every bit as dubious as RUS in the truth stakes ( it is war so no suprise ) Just seems difficult to get balanced info as both sides exaggerate their gains and are reticent about losses .
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:36 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:24 pm
I think Lancaster is stating on the “ balance of probabilities “ ( well I’d hope so ) that’s it’s likely to be RUS. The problem I find is that UKR are every bit as dubious as RUS in the truth stakes ( it is war so no suprise ) Just seems difficult to get balanced info as both sides exaggerate their gains and are reticent about losses .
Yup, but there is also stuff like this

https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1 ... 4560731137

The damage done to the dam suggest a lot of explosives used - far more than you can get from a missile or an artillery shell

Again, as the Russians are in control of the bit where it was blown up, then it does rather suggest that they mined it and set it off (again, possibility is that it was an accident)

Its also worth noting that there isn't a lot of news from the front lines, and for all we know (due to Russia never reporting defeats and Ukraine being very careful before reporting stuff because of OPSEC) the Russians are pulling back and blew it to cover their retreat (not seeing anything concrete but its just speculation)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:41 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... 1686151427

This from the Guardian is pretty worrying about the popularity of Wagner - no point in Putin being replaced by this lot, as it will get worse, not better

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 07, 2023 9:02 pm

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 2261437440

This is hopefully just sabre rattling by the Eastern members of NATO

You assume the security guarantees and an adhesion protocol will be agreed at the coming NATO summit

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Thu Jun 08, 2023 5:00 am

Russian Telegram channels claiming major Ukr attack in Zaporozhye. Claiming the counter offensive has started. Tokmak direction. Suppose things will be clearer when I wake up in the morning.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Thu Jun 08, 2023 11:40 am

As reported by a pro RUS ( though a balanced one) telegram channel . Fierce fighting with huge losses on both sides been going on since 4th June in Zap . This is their report from this morning , stating what looks like small but very solid UKR gains and quite possibly heavy RUS losses
Tg
Tg
969DCC50-D92C-49D5-9309-12D39792F670.jpeg (1.38 MiB) Viewed 1678 times

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 08, 2023 11:48 am

Pretty much every expert on twitter was predicting an attack in the Tokmak direction, if only because there is no natural barriers to impede a drive to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov

Its got a lot of Russian fortifications because of that, but fixed fortifications are useless without a mobile reserve, and the supply hubs for the front are being battered by Ukrainian missiles/HIMARS and artillery

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 08, 2023 1:54 pm

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1666513162928005127

This seems fairly legit (well, retweeted by people who know a lot more than me)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:58 pm

If that is really happening then (an attack on Zaporizhia) it can be seen that the flooding of the Dnipro region has benefits for the Ukrainians too.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:48 pm

Whether RUS or UKR blew the dam, it’s a strong PR outcome for UKR who appear to be winning the “ info wars”by a mile. With the incursions into Russia being a v good publicity /destabilisation coup, drones over the Kremlin etc . A mass punch through the RUS lines in their big offensive would be just huge for them . They also seem very keen on taking Bakhmut back. Russia look well dug in though and impossible to say if they’ve ramped up artillery/ammo production.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by groove » Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:17 pm

I heard on the radio that over 200 square miles were now under water, but I've seen no actual footage. Is there any?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Jun 09, 2023 7:44 am

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian ... ?r=US&IR=T
Interesting article regarding some of the Western munitions supplied to Ukraine.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri Jun 09, 2023 11:12 am

Russia today reporting their usual list of “ kills” tanks etc though oddly they have omitted any mention of positions/locations , while bigging up troops bravery ,which would suggest they’ve conceded considerable ground . UKR publically announced they’re moving 30k Kherson troops to the main offensive as well .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Dark Cloud » Fri Jun 09, 2023 11:47 am

I'm no expert, but I'm guessing it's going to bloody tough going for UKR as the invaders have spent all winter planting mines and building extremely deep defences. Swift gains over many kms with Russians melting away and retreating under the slightest pressure as has been seen previously, is very unlikely as the UKR will have to tread (literally) extremely carefully. If it was me I'd probably invade Belgorod and go round the side to get at them from the rear and avoid the defences!!

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