Russia Invades

[Lancasterclaret]

Some speculation that those generals have been arrested, time will tell
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 19044?s=20

Aye, but Gerashchenko is an advisor to Zelensky - Ukraine are 100% going to be muddling the waters like mad

But it does look a bit weird that both Generals appear to be in bunkers, and one of them is armed

[Lancasterclaret]

Twitter is so s**t since Musk did that $7 and you get a blue tick

Its full of reports (with no evidence) of Wagner units driving on Moscow

Its got to be 1000 miles plus between Rostov and Moscow

Off to bed, world won't end before the morning......well, probably

[ClaretLoup]

Bearing in mind Prigozhin is a mercenary I wonder if the Allies/US/Ukrainians have just simply bribed him in some way to stage a coup?

400 Wagner vehicles on their way to Moscow allegedly and Russian military vehicles on the streets of Rostov and Moscow seem to indicate something is definitely afoot.

[welsbyswife]

Is there any chance at all that this could be manufactured to give an excuse for Russian troops to withdraw? i.e. in order to quell insurrection at home? A way of pulling back but saving face?

[Lancasterclaret]

Is there any chance at all that this could be manufactured to give an excuse for Russian troops to withdraw? i.e. in order to quell insurrection at home? A way of pulling back but saving face?

Anything is possible, but I doubt it

They have spent billions in fortifying the areas of Ukraine that they hold

They know the only chance is war weariness (see Iran-Iraq) and if they still hold a big chunk of Ukrainian territory then they have some clout in the negotiations

What I would say if this isn't quelled overnight, then Ukraine will almost certainly launch a full scale offensive - absolutely no way that Russian troops will hold if there is a civil war going on behind them

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 8962854920

Russian military (and this might be propoganda to get troops to stay loyal don't forget) reporting that Ukrainian forces have taken parts of Bakhmut

[welsbyswife]

Either way it's a huge development surely. The Russians are already spread along a very long defensive line without taking Wagner troops out of the equation.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm only using the twitter accounts that have been broadly accurate with stuff since the war kicked off by the way

There is so much s**t out there and it is almost impossible to know what is accurate and what is not

[Lancasterclaret]

Either way it's a huge development surely. The Russians are already spread along a very long defensive line without taking Wagner troops out of the equation.

Oh yeah, its potentially huge

You have to remember though that the actual front line is a lot shorter than it was, and Russia has a lot of troops and a lot of defences

The days of Ukrainian tractors capturing entire armoured columns are long gone

The longer it goes on, the more danger the Russian line is in

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 9656496128

Latest from Wagner

If that is true, then holy ****

[yTib]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 9656496128

Latest from Wagner

If that is true, then holy ****

seems too mental to be true!

but then i've always been a sceptic.

[welsbyswife]

You're not going to bed anytime soon Lancaster

[Lancasterclaret]

seems too mental to be true!

but then i've always been a sceptic.

It could well be propoganda from Wagner

But, its a rear area, the Wagner guys are (in the main) experienced ex-soldiers who are pretty ruthless and comparatively well equipped - the Russian Rosvgarda guys will be very young, pretty badly trained and very badly armed

Anyone who is trained or equipped is on the front line, and its possible that the casualties have been so heavy that there is widespread dissatisfaction but to actually rebel?

If any of this is true, then the Russian army has been hit far worse than anyone thought - far, far, far worse

[Lancasterclaret]

Am going to have to go to bed, I'm falling asleep here

Be interesting to see what its like in the morning

[yTib]

Be interesting to see what its like in the morning

that's if you (and the rest of western europe) ever wake up.

[Elbarad]

If there is RU vs Wagner fighting I wonder what color tape they’ll wear and what will replace Z, V, and O on vehicles. Trivial I know, but for whatever reason it came to mind. I’m guessing not rainbow tape. But with now 3 sides using the same equipment friend or foe recognition will be even tougher.

[TsarBomba]

Unbelievable scenes.

[LeadBelly]

Looks like it's moving very quickly.

Wagner forces seem to have got some control of (militarily important (re Ukraine operations)) Rostov area and also maybe got some elements which are imposing themselves around Voronezh (half way on the road to Moscow from Rostov).

Also some reports that:
Wagner have downed a couple of helicopters
Some other (non-Wagner) units have declared support for Prigozhin (one report suggesting 22nd Special Forces Brigade has switched allegiance to them).
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

[Lancasterclaret]

Most coups fail in the first 24 hours

The fact that this hasn't is really bad news for, well, everyone

Actually not sure Ukraine will attack while this is going on, it might act as a unifying force in the face of the aggressor (the way they look at it remember)

[Bordeauxclaret]

Most coups fail in the first 24 hours

The fact that this hasn't is really bad news for, well, everyone

Actually not sure Ukraine will attack while this is going on, it might act as a unifying force in the face of the aggressor (the way they look at it remember)

When you say everyone? Do you mean in the conflict or the West as well?

[Lancasterclaret]

When you say everyone? Do you mean in the conflict or the West as well?

Yeah

Prigozhin is as ruthless as they come

I mean, it might turn out that there is a statesman in there who realises the futility of the war (and he has said some things that suggest he recognises that) but he's from the wing of the Russian military who want Russia to go all in on Ukraine

[Lancasterclaret]

Yeah

Prigozhin is as ruthless as they come

I mean, it might turn out that there is a statesman in there who realises the futility of the war (and he has said some things that suggest he recognises that) but he's from the wing of the Russian military who want Russia to go all in on Ukraine

Its a power struggle for survival essentially

Vladimir Putin knows what happens when you lose control in Russia - he can't afford that

Prigozhin knows what happens to the opponents of Putin in Russia - he can't afford that

Like I said last night, if Prigozhin has got some support in the army and the Rozegardia (spelling, but the Russian National Guard) then this could get ugly

And if there are loyal army units, they will be at the front, and in critical positions that they can't be moved from in the war, but Putin might not have any choice

The fact that Prigozhin is established in a Russian city and his units are loyal to him is the consequence of allowing him to have a private army in the first place

But there are other (smaller) private armies around, and they will be opposed to Prigozhin (because they back the leaders he's trying to remove)

Just highlights what a monumental error Putin committed 18 months ago to be honest

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 2083270659

Look, its from a Ukrainian advisor to the President, but he says its comes from the Wagner official telegram channel (which will have millions of subscribers in Russia)

Saying Russia will have a new President

There isn't much room for compromise here

[StayingDown4Ever]

Didn’t you say this Prigozhin would either be in jail or dead by now?

[Clovius Boofus]

I'm struggling to work out whether this is good news or bad news. Russia is a gangster state embarking on a civil war. A failed gangster state, with nukes and oil/gas wealth. On second thoughts, I think it's bad news, unless Prig keeps Putin as a puppet leader and withdraws from Ukraine. But it won't be so easy. There's too much money to fight over, and the gangster barons won't give up so easily.

[LeadBelly]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 0832193536

Meanwhile in Moscow.... Wagner recruitment ad posters are being removed

[jackmiggins]

Putin’s rhetoric sounds like inner panic - reference to 1917? problem is that if he goes, which lunatic replaces him?

[AfloatinClaret]

seems too mental to be true!

but then i've always been a sceptic.

Has the West finally completed negotiations with Prigozhin? Given that all along Wagner have been described as 'a mercenary group' it's long struck me that rather than expend men and munitions in fighting them, it would make more sense for the West to use their combined financial clout to just make them a better offer.

[Colburn_Claret]

Didn’t you say this Prigozhin would either be in jail or dead by now?

When making calls in unprecedented circumstances, it is impossible to give a definitive answer.
Nobody knows what the outcome will be, the whole thing is on a knife edge, but the natural selection is that Putins' army is bigger than Wagner, therefore you would expect him to win out. The unknown factor is that Wagner are far more battle hardened, far more driven, than the troops they are against, add also how many of those troops Putin will be relying on, are just plain miffed at the way this whole conflict has been handled.

I'm sure you didn't intend it, but your short statement comes across as a dig, in the good old Claret Mad fashion, at a contributor who has done more than most to keep us informed of what is happening in Ukraine. It wasn't called for.

[Clovius Boofus]

There will be total chaos if Putin falls. Even if Putin simply resigns, powerful groups will be jockeying for position.

[Clovius Boofus]

If only Putin hadn't woken up one morning with the idea that taking over Ukraine would be a walk in the park.

[Colburn_Claret]

There will be chaos if Putin falls, which is Ukraines best chance.
Whoever takes over will have too much on their hands to fight Ukraine as well as protect themselves from the many factions that are opposed, or frightened of the consequences, the new regime will bring.
The dogs ******** would be Prigozhin removes Putin, quickly followed by somebody removing Prigozhin. There are a lot of people living in fear of the outcome here, it isn't as simple as Putin or Prigozhin.

[welsbyswife]

I think the best possible outcome is a protracted struggle which draws Russia away from Ukraine where the army are eventually victorious. And the generals then take power realising that Putin's time is up allowing for a transition of power. Wishful thinking maybe but all of those in the military will be lunatics. A majority will be more moderate.

[Clovius Boofus]

"Together with our Motherland we will overcome all trials. I urged the military to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal activities," Putin said during his appeal."

It's over when a dictator has to appeal to his army to do his bidding.

Hopefully, the new regime will blame Putin for all their ills and try to rebuild economic ties with the west. To continue the Ukraine war would be utter folly, given that army units are defecting because they're sick of fighting this unwinnable war.

[Tricky Trevor]

There will be chaos if Putin falls, which is Ukraines best chance.
Whoever takes over will have too much on their hands to fight Ukraine as well as protect themselves from the many factions that are opposed, or frightened of the consequences, the new regime will bring.
The dogs ******** would be Prigozhin removes Putin, quickly followed by somebody removing Prigozhin. There are a lot of people living in fear of the outcome here, it isn't as simple as Putin or Prigozhin.

I read an article recently where Putin falling is a scary option as the people queueing up behind him are even more extreme and might not be bothered by turning to nuclear weapons.
NATO cannot let Russia win as they will continue their expansionism. Too late now but they should have gone in on day one and shown Russia that Europe stands shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.

[Dark Cloud]

The fear (for me) is that Putin falls and we momentarily breathe a sigh of relief thinking some kind of normality will resume, but in the ensuing chaos in Russia Putin actually he gets replaced by someone like Progozhin or that berk who heads up the Chechens or some other "hardliner" who is stupid enough to start pushing the nuclear buttons, because some of those guys definitely come across as easily crazy enough to do that.

[Lancasterclaret]

Didn’t you say this Prigozhin would either be in jail or dead by now?

Yes

Because he was in charge of 25,000 wagner mercenaries and two Russian generals appealed to their men to stay loyal to Putin

Looks like that didn't work, so the circumstances have changed pretty drastically

And like I said further up, most coups collapse in the first 24 hours and this one hasn't

[Lancasterclaret]

Very surreal watching Wagner troops march into Rostov carrying cups of takeaway coffee from the local coffee shop

Normality continuing in what can't be normal

[Jellybean]

Is it not terrifying that this guy heading up Wagner may become president, he seems brutal. Do we think he is being backed by other nations perhaps, that he sees how ridiculous this invasion is from the front line and would withdraw from Ukraine to sort Russia out? I can't work out what is good and bad here!

[AlargeClaret]

It won't

Priogzhin will be dead or in prison by the the morning

You’re probably right , the chances of large scale mutiny must sadly by small.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 6320786439

Right, some video confirmation of a Wagner column moving north from Voronezh to Moscow - tanks, SAM cover, troops

Really hard to get your head around this to be honest

Plus unconfirmed videos (but almost certainly true) of Wagner units shooting down 2 x RuAF helicopters and an An-24 - there must be casualties on both sides

Oh, the that Chechen idiot has backed Putin as well

[Lancasterclaret]

You’re probably right , the chances of large scale mutiny must sadly by small.

Its not good either way this - this just highlights how unstable Russia is

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 9017809920

Loyal Russian troops occupying a bridge south of Moscow on the main motorway from the south -

[Dark Cloud]

Genuine question. How does someone know the difference between a column of Wagner troops and a column of regular Russian troops? Are the vehicles marked differently and do the troops wear different uniforms?

[LeadBelly]

There appears to have been at least a minor battle between the 2 sides in Veronezh region. This clip seems to have been taken by a local tending his smallholding. Wish I could translate what his comments are
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 4034388993

[AlargeClaret]

If UKR have been holding back in their counteroffensive, this could surely be the time to go all out . While I’d imagine Putin will put this mutiny down like a dog , it only needs a couple of generals and commanders to throw their lot in with Wagner and this could quickly domino . Though haven’t the RUS army been after them since they took Bakhmut ?

[Lancasterclaret]

Genuine question. How does someone know the difference between a column of Wagner troops and a column of regular Russian troops? Are the vehicles marked differently and do the troops wear different uniforms?

Wagner troops have a PMC Wagner insignia on their sleeves and are probably slightly better equipped but that will be it

I think they have some differences in vehicles as well, again, because Wagner are comparatively well equipped

One of the main reasons that he's got support is that he backs his men with the right gear, which is not the case for the regular Russian army at all

[LeadBelly]

Genuine question. How does someone know the difference between a column of Wagner troops and a column of regular Russian troops? Are the vehicles marked differently and do the troops wear different uniforms?

I've seen some recent pics of Wagner vehicles with the "Z" being in red rather than white but I dont know if that's a general (red v white) thing. (Historical precedents with White Russians v Red Russians).
In any case its a cue for a number of "friendly fire" confrontations.

[TsarBomba]

Only sporadic fighting really so far, which would suggest a level of acquiescence from the Russian military, that’s if there is any real Russian military left to oppose Wagner, and not poorly trained Rosgvardia.

Wagner will be aiming to cover their advance with as much hardware they can get their hands on, and I imagine they will be recalling all their battle hardened troops from around the world.

The longer this goes on, the stronger Wagner will become. Time is on their side.

If I was Putin I would be abdicating to North Korea.

[Lancasterclaret]

Only sporadic fighting really so far, which would suggest a level of acquiescence from the Russian military, that’s if there is any real Russian military left to oppose Wagner, and not poorly trained Rosgvardia.

Wagner will be aiming to cover their advance with as much hardware they can get their hands on, and I imagine they will be recalling all their battle hardened troops from around the world.

The longer this goes on, the stronger Wagner will become. Time is on their side.

If I was Putin I would be abdicating to North Korea.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... 0122599424

Certainly a lot of stuff in this clip - in theory the RuAF should be able to absolutely devastate this column - in theory (and their performance in the war so far doesn't suggest that they can)