Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:27 pm

Video of a retreating Russian vehicle in Kherson, which crashes. Casualties or suffering g not shown but must’ve been high:

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/s ... 5999556611

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:29 pm

As an aside, according to Ukraine, yesterday was the most deadliest yet - 950 troops killed & massive APV losses that are surely unsustainable.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:35 pm

No boats though, struggling to follow everything atm. Do we know what happened in Sevastopol? As in, we’re any ships destroyed? Just damaged?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:10 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:35 pm
No boats though, struggling to follow everything atm. Do we know what happened in Sevastopol? As in, we’re any ships destroyed? Just damaged?
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status ... 9697348608

This is probably the best explanation of what happened and results

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Firthy » Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:42 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:29 pm
As an aside, according to Ukraine, yesterday was the most deadliest yet - 950 troops killed & massive APV losses that are surely unsustainable.
Ukrainian or Russian losses?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:05 pm

Firthy wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:42 pm
Ukrainian or Russian losses?
That table is what Ukraine says Russia has lost; cumulative in the large figures to the right and the daily count to the left. So they say 950 Russians for the day taking it to 71,200 for the war to-date.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:57 pm

[*]
Lancasterclaret wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:10 pm
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status ... 9697348608

This is probably the best explanation of what happened and results
So basically no ships sunk then. That’s a shame.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:22 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:20 pm
That's one of those stories that you shouldn't really find any humour in.....
Not sure I made that post humorous.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:26 pm

The video I mentioned earlier is back all over Twitter. Very horrid to watch.
Basically a group of soldiers who want to surrender and one decides to try to throw a grenade at the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/calibreobscura/stat ... 5aqvmXh-Pg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:36 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:57 pm
[*]

So basically no ships sunk then. That’s a shame.
Russia immediately suspended the grain agreement

I think the Russians (again) might not be 100% truthful with what actually happened

And "damage" to current Russian black sea flagship (and one of the few remaining naval units with an up to date SAM system) shouldn't be ignored as it could be out of action for a fair while

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:02 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:27 pm
Video of a retreating Russian vehicle in Kherson, which crashes. Casualties or suffering g not shown but must’ve been high:

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/s ... 5999556611
There's the full 9+ minutes film of this (not so) organised withdrawal on youtube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWGYj3J ... Translated

Some of the Russian talk is translated to English and appears it was filmed 1st October. The person filming maybe gets trapped under the vehicle.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:11 am

For those looking for some updated info, there is very heavy fighting but not a lot of ground being taken by either side at the moment.
Russia is losing a lot of troops each day, two days ago it was reported that they lost 950 in a single day and yesterday over 600.

The ground is starting to get very wet and soon fields etc will not be able to be driven on by heavy armoured vehicles.

So it’s looking like a long winter with not much movement in ground taken by either side.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:45 pm

Not seen any videos like this for ages, helicopter shot down.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... 3IITRz3KHA

Plane shot down.

https://twitter.com/itsmontaybaybay/sta ... 3IITRz3KHA

They have lost a significant number of planes and helicopters, they just cannot fly near the front line without being taken out.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:52 pm

In days past aircraft would throw out defensive material to thwart missile attack. Don't Russian aircraft have this capability or is it poor training?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:55 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:11 am
For those looking for some updated info, there is very heavy fighting but not a lot of ground being taken by either side at the moment.
Russia is losing a lot of troops each day, two days ago it was reported that they lost 950 in a single day and yesterday over 600.

The ground is starting to get very wet and soon fields etc will not be able to be driven on by heavy armoured vehicles.

So it’s looking like a long winter with not much movement in ground taken by either side.
This is the ISW current assessment of the future of the war:

This forecast rests on two assessments. First, that Putin is setting conditions to continue throwing poorly prepared Russian troops directly into the fighting in Ukraine for the foreseeable future rather than pausing operations to reconstitute effective military forces. Second, that Putin’s theory of victory relies on using the harsh winter to break Europe’s will.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... october-30

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:14 pm

Hipper wrote:
Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:52 pm
In days past aircraft would throw out defensive material to thwart missile attack. Don't Russian aircraft have this capability or is it poor training?
Just not sure how effective they are against modern SAMS

Or put it another way, flares certainly help against infra red guided missiles, but limited use against radar guided ones

Or another way, chaff type emissions certainly help against radar guided ones, but limited use against Infra red guided ones

I do wonder if its almost impossible for fixed wing and rotary aircraft to operate as they are trained to do in a modern, high tech version of WWI

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:56 pm

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 9431272449

At the moment, there are no scenarios where Germany runs out of gas

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:56 pm
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 9431272449

At the moment, there are no scenarios where Germany runs out of gas
I have read the link, but going off what Von Der Leyen said about the EU sharing it out equally, IF Germany can't run out of gas, then neither can the rest of the EU.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:26 pm

Even if the Russian ships were sank in Sevastopol they'd likely be able to refloat/salvage them. Of course they'd be out of commission a long time. Think what happened to the US fleet in Pearl Harbor.

Badly damaging these ships is of course less useful then sinking them, but keeps it them in the harbor being repaired. And maybe if they're immobile, easier to hit again.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:28 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:26 pm
Even if the Russian ships were sank in Sevastopol they'd likely be able to refloat/salvage them. Of course they'd be out of commission a long time. Think what happened to the US fleet in Pearl Harbor.

Badly damaging these ships is of course less useful then sinking them, but keeps it them in the harbor being repaired. And maybe if they're immobile, easier to hit again.
With all the modern stuff these ships are full off, just flooding can put them out of action for years

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:28 pm
With all the modern stuff these ships are full off, just flooding can put them out of action for years
Yes of course it would. They would have to rewire the entire ship just for starters. Not counting replacing electronic chips with new ones that they can likely no longer acquire.

Hopefully we will get some intel soon on any damage.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:58 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:45 pm
Not seen any videos like this for ages, helicopter shot down.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... 3IITRz3KHA

Plane shot down.

https://twitter.com/itsmontaybaybay/sta ... 3IITRz3KHA

They have lost a significant number of planes and helicopters, they just cannot fly near the front line without being taken out.
Incredible footage.

Two more helicopters shot down in 3 minutes today apparently.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:39 pm

There was a Ukrainian helicopter downed today (unsure if enemy action or accident) but the the Russian one being shown shot down is evidently operated by Wagner, pictures of the wreck at https://twitter.com/Military_oO/status/ ... 2238012416

Also been rumours that two Russian helicopters were destroyed (and maybe a couple damaged) at Veretye Air Base (inside Russia near Latvian/Estonian border) by saboteurs/partisans. There seems to be evidence that there were explosion(s) at that base but Russians deny helicopters were damaged.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:08 am

More heavy losses. One plane and four helicopters downed yesterday!
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:10 am

Anyone any ideas on current numerical superiority on the front line(s) of UKR over RUS? I’ve heard from 3:1 to 6:1 which is surely way too high ? Though with Russia’s losses , rearguards etc and lack of full deployment of their recruits I guess it could be anything .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:44 pm

Very infrequent poster. I have been following this thread since day one and have truly appreciated the cogent discussion that has remained throughout. I wanted to point out the one, possibly of many, elephant in the room. Come Nov 8th, there is every possibility that the US Republicans will control both the House and Senate and have amongst their ranks; including their fascist loving leader Trump, several members that have campaigned on cutting funds and weaponry to Ukraine. It would not surprise me to see Putin and his minions hold tight as much as they can to January in hopes of this coming to fruition.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:01 pm

BayArea54 wrote:
Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:44 pm
Very infrequent poster. I have been following this thread since day one and have truly appreciated the cogent discussion that has remained throughout. I wanted to point out the one, possibly of many, elephant in the room. Come Nov 8th, there is every possibility that the US Republicans will control both the House and Senate and have amongst their ranks; including their fascist loving leader Trump, several members that have campaigned on cutting funds and weaponry to Ukraine. It would not surprise me to see Putin and his minions hold tight as much as they can to January in hopes of this coming to fruition.
Its a worry, but the majority of House Republicans are also keen backers of Ukraine, and I don't think that will have as much effect as Putin hopes

The US has a huge issue with China, and if Russia can be effectively neutralised (and it is well on the way to that now) then the US can turn its still formidable global reach to concentrate on China

All US Politicians recognise the dangers of China I feel, even Trump

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:05 pm

Below is an update off my friend in Ukraine, I try to avoid putting updates as much as possible but I felt it worthwhile posting this.

**If you are easily affected please don’t read below but it is worth posting just to show what these guys are having to go through**

Well, I'm still trying to process what I've seen, but need to get it off of my chest

We got tasked with hostage rescue in ###### ##### behind RF lines, A ### ### had captured a Retired Ukrainian navy intelligence officer, very high level, we inserted fine and neutralized 6 ### ##### and captured 3, when we got inside the house it was like something from a horror movie.

His wife had been raped and executed in front of him, they cut off her head and boiled it in a pan

2 kids had been tortured and shot in the basement, 10 & 12 years old

They had put torniquets on all of his 4 limbs and had cut them off; other stuff they did to him I can't write on here, but it was so.depraved I cannot express it in words or feelings

****!!! I thought I had seen it all (()

I have no words totally abhorrent I am aware this is only 1 side of a story and 2 wrongs don’t make a right but it’s reading things like this

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:07 pm

******* hell mate

That is grim

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:34 pm

BayArea54 wrote:
Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:44 pm
Very infrequent poster. I have been following this thread since day one and have truly appreciated the cogent discussion that has remained throughout. I wanted to point out the one, possibly of many, elephant in the room. Come Nov 8th, there is every possibility that the US Republicans will control both the House and Senate and have amongst their ranks; including their fascist loving leader Trump, several members that have campaigned on cutting funds and weaponry to Ukraine. It would not surprise me to see Putin and his minions hold tight as much as they can to January in hopes of this coming to fruition.
As an infrequent poster, you may not know that we try and keep politics off this thread rather than risk getting into political arguments and thence axing of the thread.. Your "fascist loving leader Trump" is clearly a political viewpoint and not a fact. Fair enough bringing up the "if Republicans control - how will that affect support for Ukraine" but the Trump reference is just airing your political view.

It seems support for Ukraine remains strong in the USA population: in an October poll, 73% said US should continue to support Ukraine militarily and that was split 81% amongst Dems, 66% for Republicans.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:38 pm

I hear what you are saying LancasterClaret, but we Americans have a long and storied history of pulling out of policy and direction before the end, just ask the Kurds for example. I hope you are right, but even now the far left members of Congress are making noise about funding and negotiations, the incredibly stupid letter signed by a dozen or so House Dems sent then rescinded by Pramila Jaypal being the most recent example. I hope you are right, but if gas goes up 20% and there is political hay to be harvested by reducing our support, and the almost unfathomable near lockstep to Trumpism continues, well, we will see.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:45 pm

Duly noted, LeadBelly, I will let history attach the appropriate labels...

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:47 pm

BayArea54 wrote:
Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:38 pm
I hear what you are saying LancasterClaret, but we Americans have a long and storied history of pulling out of policy and direction before the end, just ask the Kurds for example. I hope you are right, but even now the far left members of Congress are making noise about funding and negotiations, the incredibly stupid letter signed by a dozen or so House Dems sent then rescinded by Pramila Jaypal being the most recent example. I hope you are right, but if gas goes up 20% and there is political hay to be harvested by reducing our support, and the almost unfathomable near lockstep to Trumpism continues, well, we will see.
I get that, but there is a world of difference between what would essentially dropping NATO in the s**t

US can't afford to drop allies if its serious about dealing with China, as nations that are around China will look at that and choose their options accordingly if it drops Ukraine

Worth mentioning as well that the support for Ukraine is miniscule compared the US budget

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Corky » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:22 am

Surely, isn't America still the "Arsenal of Democracy"?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Corky » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:26 am

Also meant to say that the word on the street is that Putin might not be as secure as he thinks and that the vultures are circling and Patrushev may be their next leader. Her used to like the West but not so much lately.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:50 am

The horrendous scene witnessed by JarrowClarets mate should be broadcast around the world including hacking into Russian TV. Any person with even a scrap of humanity would be revolted and back Ukraine to the hilt.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:57 am

Interesting article from the ISW on Partisan activity in occupied territories:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... st-russian

.....and a couple of notable points made:

1. Russian forces occupy approximately 85,300 square kilometers of mainland Ukrainian territory, excluding Crimea, as of November 1. Russian manpower shortages are inhibiting efforts to secure this area.[7] Ukrainian intelligence reported on October 28 that the Russian military has concentrated 40,000 personnel—most of Russia’s remaining conventional forces—in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast, where Russia occupies roughly 23,000 square kilometers.

2. It seems partisans made two attacks, one direct one indirect, on the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.

i) July 20, 2022: Vladimir Rogov, a member of Zaporizhia Oblast’s main council for the military-civil administration, reported that Ukrainian partisans attacked Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) with three warhead-equipped UAVs on July 20. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided combat footage of the strikes and reported that the strikes killed three Russians and wounded 12 Russian occupation personnel.

ii) August 11, 2022: Unknown actors (likely Ukrainian partisans) knocked down power transmission towers along the highway between the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast (near Nova Kamianka) on August 11.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:36 pm

Hipper wrote:
Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:57 am
Interesting article from the ISW on Partisan activity in occupied territories:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... st-russian

.....and a couple of notable points made:

1. Russian forces occupy approximately 85,300 square kilometers of mainland Ukrainian territory, excluding Crimea, as of November 1. Russian manpower shortages are inhibiting efforts to secure this area.[7] Ukrainian intelligence reported on October 28 that the Russian military has concentrated 40,000 personnel—most of Russia’s remaining conventional forces—in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast, where Russia occupies roughly 23,000 square kilometers.

2. It seems partisans made two attacks, one direct one indirect, on the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.

i) July 20, 2022: Vladimir Rogov, a member of Zaporizhia Oblast’s main council for the military-civil administration, reported that Ukrainian partisans attacked Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) with three warhead-equipped UAVs on July 20. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided combat footage of the strikes and reported that the strikes killed three Russians and wounded 12 Russian occupation personnel.

ii) August 11, 2022: Unknown actors (likely Ukrainian partisans) knocked down power transmission towers along the highway between the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast (near Nova Kamianka) on August 11.
It is impossible to run an effective COIN operation in a country the size of Ukraine, and if Russia hasn't got the support of the local population, that means that they won't have any control at all outside of the major urban areas

And Ukraine is winning, that will just massively increase the support for partisan activity, and the more troops Russia has to deploy on COIN duty, the less it has for manning the front lines

And it will be the badly trained and badly equipped troops doing it, with morale issues and no training on how to deal with a hostile population

Very likely the occupied regions will explode sooner rather than later

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:35 pm

No it hasn't slipped my mind, like I said I think he's crazy and liable to say stupid things at the drop of a hat. I don't think he'd support the Russian invasion and I believe he would have sent aid to Ukraine. But we'll never know I guess. At least hope we never know because I don't want him to ever hold office again.

Edit: But now I've broken the very good rule about talking politics on this thread for which I apologize. I've said my opinion of what I think will happen in the future based on potential election results, but I won't comment further on Trump's hypothetical actions.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Volvoclaret » Thu Nov 03, 2022 5:40 pm

All quiet on the Eastern Front ?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Belgianclaret » Thu Nov 03, 2022 6:20 pm

Looking increasingly likely that Russians will flee from Cherson

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TonbridgeClaret » Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:24 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 04, 2022 1:52 pm

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586991933481697280

Ambush on a Russian Mechanized platoon in the Donestk Oblast

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:01 pm

Some scenes showing the happiness of liberated Ukrainians. Very emotional.

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/sta ... mRLZA&s=19
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Cubanforever » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:16 pm

I know it's been said many times but thankyou to the stalwart contributers on this thread
These 3 users liked this post: simonclaret shanghaiclaret Jellybean

Taffy on the wing
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Sat Nov 05, 2022 2:32 am

Wrong….. As usual.
Donald is severely compromised where Russia and Putin are concerned…. He supports anything Vlad says & does…

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Sat Nov 05, 2022 2:34 am

I apologize for responding to him!….Fccx!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KRBFC » Sat Nov 05, 2022 3:09 am

Taffy on the wing wrote:
Sat Nov 05, 2022 2:32 am
Wrong….. As usual.
Donald is severely compromised where Russia and Putin are concerned…. He supports anything Vlad says & does…
Strange how the world works, you listen to an interview and only hear what you want to hear. I don't give a **** about Trump but if you're gonna quote what he said, at least give the full context... where's the sense in purposely ignoring what he said to push your agenda.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:32 am

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status ... 5262495744

Good explainer by Ross Atkins and the BBC man on the ground in Kherson about how its hard to get information out about the war even in the 24/7 digital age

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:36 am

Never reported a post in my life before this

Its **** poor that we have to though

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