Russia Invades

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Lancasterclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:34 pm

https://twitter.com/GresselGustav/statu ... 0244573184

Course, when they arrive is key, but the Germans sending a very advanced SAM system as well

Never realised, but because NATO are basically a military that relies on having air superiority (which in would have tbf), they don't actually have that many mobile medium to long range SAM systems, and Ukraine needs them more than anything else

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Gaia » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:39 pm

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/153196 ... TbxOA&s=19

Russian losses, Feb 24 to early Jun 1:

~30,700 killed

1,361 tanks
3,343 armoured vehicles
659 artillery systems
207 rocket systems
94 air defence systems
208 aircraft
175 helicopters
519 UAVs
120 cruise missiles
13 ships/boats
2,290 vehicles/fuel trucks
49 special equipment https://t.co/BsFksG6Rr2

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:40 pm

Phillips Obrien Retweet: In Luhansk region, east Ukraine, the regional authorities announced that the Ukrainian forces were retreating to "better, already prepared positions" west of the city, 70% of which is now under Russia|n occupation.

https://twitter.com/alexkokcharov/statu ... Z4j-mYlehA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:42 pm

Kyiv Independent: SBU suspects local official in Chernivtsi of humanitarian aid fraud.

A deputy head of the Chernivtsi regional military administration has allegedly participated in the commercial use of ambulances that were sent to Ukraine from Italy as humanitarian aid.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... Z4j-mYlehA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:45 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:40 pm
Phillips Obrien Retweet: In Luhansk region, east Ukraine, the regional authorities announced that the Ukrainian forces were retreating to "better, already prepared positions" west of the city, 70% of which is now under Russia|n occupation.

https://twitter.com/alexkokcharov/statu ... Z4j-mYlehA
No point in getting surrounded in a city that essentially is now just rubble

I do wonder if the Russians think they can rebuild all these captured areas, or do they think they will be forced to give them all back, and just destroying them because they are Ukrainian

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:50 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:45 pm
No point in getting surrounded in a city that essentially is now just rubble

I do wonder if the Russians think they can rebuild all these captured areas, or do they think they will be forced to give them all back, and just destroying them because they are Ukrainian
One can only assume they hope to pull them into Russia, where they will in effect become a Russian owned no-man’s-land. Or course by pulling out Ukraine will now be able to turn the tables as Russia will no doubt occupy it.

I saw a tweet earlier this morning (didn’t grasp the relevance at the time) saying this is very bad news for Russian troops.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:03 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:50 pm
One can only assume they hope to pull them into Russia, where they will in effect become a Russian owned no-man’s-land. Or course by pulling out Ukraine will now be able to turn the tables as Russia will no doubt occupy it.

I saw a tweet earlier this morning (didn’t grasp the relevance at the time) saying this is very bad news for Russian troops.
I have absolutely no idea

Its impossible for the Russians to make a decisive break through, so both sides are losing men and equipment for a few miles of absolutely destroyed land, and if there is any hole in the line, artillery and hand held anti tank weapons seal it right back up

I'm not sure the Ukrainians can successfully break through anywhere as well for exactly the same reasons

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:14 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:03 pm
I have absolutely no idea

Its impossible for the Russians to make a decisive break through, so both sides are losing men and equipment for a few miles of absolutely destroyed land, and if there is any hole in the line, artillery and hand held anti tank weapons seal it right back up

I'm not sure the Ukrainians can successfully break through anywhere as well for exactly the same reasons
I’ve certainly been given the impression the Ukraine plan is to pull back into pre-prepared positions and then rely on missile strength to ‘soften up’ the Russian forces prior to any Ukrainian counter attack/moves. Ukraine employing a longer term attrition campaign, and preserving their fighting forces until the balance tips in their favour.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:19 pm

Screenshot_20220601-131349_Samsung Internet.jpg
Screenshot_20220601-131349_Samsung Internet.jpg (297.92 KiB) Viewed 3490 times
The Russians have a nerve saying America pouring oil on a fire and accusing Ukraine of being able to target Russia with the missiles, the irony.
Attachments
Screenshot_20220601-131357_Samsung Internet.jpg
Screenshot_20220601-131357_Samsung Internet.jpg (252.13 KiB) Viewed 3490 times

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:25 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:14 pm
I’ve certainly been given the impression the Ukraine plan is to pull back into pre-prepared positions and then rely on missile strength to ‘soften up’ the Russian forces prior to any Ukrainian counter attack/moves. Ukraine employing a longer term attrition campaign, and preserving their fighting forces until the balance tips in their favour.
But in the Donbass, those prepared positions have been there since 2014, and heavily fortified since. Any "new" prepared positions might be in better terrain, but they won't be fortified to the same standards

I get the long term attrition campaign idea, but if its just going to be essentially WWI style trench fighting (and it looks like it is), then Russia isn't short of barely trained men and non smart weapons systems to fight it

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:28 pm

Russia don’t trust Ukraine not to fire into Russia…. I would bloody expect them to. Just because Russia refuses to call it a war does not mean the can dictate the boundaries of the conflict - for me, to not be aiming at returning the favour on Russian infrastructure is both futile and suicidal for Ukraine.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:33 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:25 pm
But in the Donbass, those prepared positions have been there since 2014, and heavily fortified since. Any "new" prepared positions might be in better terrain, but they won't be fortified to the same standards

I get the long term attrition campaign idea, but if its just going to be essentially WWI style trench fighting (and it looks like it is), then Russia isn't short of barely trained men and non smart weapons systems to fight it
But that assumes Ukraine only created a front line defence in the first place. The expansion of lines of supply have been Russia’s Achilles heel all along. Done right Ukraine can once again cut off the head, and starve the advance, while at the same time cutting off the retreat. With longer range capability Ukraine can now afford to draw Russia back further into the country, again.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:39 pm

I do wonder if the Ukrainians had to promise not to shell Russian territory in exchange for the US giving them the longer ranger rockets. But I agree with Elwaclaret. If Belgorod is in range from their lines near Kharkiv I'd be hitting their rail yards, oil stores and barracks every day. Of course for all we know, they've been told the taps will be tightened if they do something like that.

As for future offensives. I've read several places that the Russians have been pulling armor back that they had given to Belarus as well as the supposed use of T-62's. They really are running out of equipment it seems. I agree with you Lancaster, it'll be hard to make a break thru with the kind of artillery and air power the Russians have. The hope I assume is that with longer ranged guns then the Russian's have, they'll be able to suppress it.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:47 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:33 pm
But that assumes Ukraine only created a front line defence in the first place. The expansion of lines of supply have been Russia’s Achilles heel all along. Done right Ukraine can once again cut off the head, and starve the advance, while at the same time cutting off the retreat. With longer range capability Ukraine can now afford to draw Russia back further into the country, again.
That isn't relevant in the Donbass though

Russian supply hubs and transport networks are all very established there

Russia isn't daft, it knows that if it tries anything like it did at the start, then it will have exactly the same effect

They also know that Ukraine won't invade Russia, and they also know that Ukraine probably won't demolish town or villages in Russia with artillery fire

That means they can threaten the borders of Ukraine from anywhere, but at the same time leave huge tracts of the border undefended, allowing them to concentrate in the Donbass

Ukraine can't, and has to keep substantial forces on all its borders, and I do wonder if the local superiority that Russia have in the Donbass can be countered in a way that can stop it from achieving its aims*

*Plan F - after failings to take Ukraine, encircle further out, and been left with nothing but frontal assaults on one the most heavily fortified towns in Ukraine

Course, the issue then is how successful can a Ukrainian counter attack be, when they are probably going to be outnumbered by artillery and won't have air superiority?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:49 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:39 pm
I do wonder if the Ukrainians had to promise not to shell Russian territory in exchange for the US giving them the longer ranger rockets. But I agree with Elwaclaret. If Belgorod is in range from their lines near Kharkiv I'd be hitting their rail yards, oil stores and barracks every day. Of course for all we know, they've been told the taps will be tightened if they do something like that.

As for future offensives. I've read several places that the Russians have been pulling armor back that they had given to Belarus as well as the supposed use of T-62's. They really are running out of equipment it seems. I agree with you Lancaster, it'll be hard to make a break thru with the kind of artillery and air power the Russians have. The hope I assume is that with longer ranged guns then the Russian's have, they'll be able to suppress it.
The T-62s news is beyond bonkers

There only use can be to sit in Ukrainian cities behind the lines looking like Tanks, as their ammo storage layout is horribly vulnerable when subjected to older anti-tank weapons, and will be absolutely hopeless versus the likes of Javelins and NLAWS

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:57 pm

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... TkN5Hw_Ujg

Thread re corruption within the Russian military.

The example given of a nuclear reactor being put out of service because of stolen parts is just bonkers.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:41 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:57 pm
https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... TkN5Hw_Ujg

Thread re corruption within the Russian military.

The example given of a nuclear reactor being put out of service because of stolen parts is just bonkers.
Russia has relied on corruption to keep the former serfs of Imperial Russia in their place. The Revolution was merely a change of the guard. Just imagine a regime that for several generations has relied on fear of the rest of the world to maintain power. It is hardly surprising it is so indoctrinated that the populace cannot see the wood for the trees.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:11 pm

OXFORD ACADEMIC: There are still many questions surrounding the war in the Ukraine and many we don't have answers to as of yet. Hear from Serhy Yekelchyk, author of 'Ukraine: What Everyone Needs to Know®', as he answers one question - who is Putin fighting against?

https://twitter.com/oupacademic/status/ ... C8MSM_1TMw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:03 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:40 pm
Phillips Obrien Retweet: In Luhansk region, east Ukraine, the regional authorities announced that the Ukrainian forces were retreating to "better, already prepared positions" west of the city, 70% of which is now under Russia|n occupation.

https://twitter.com/alexkokcharov/statu ... Z4j-mYlehA
I've seen a report that the Russians occupy the largely destroyed and evacuated residential eastern side of Severodonetsk, the Ukrainians have pulled back to the western side which is largely industrial and will be probably easier to defend (as per the Mariupol area that Russians found very difficult to take). Also- there is higher ground immediately to the west of the Siverskyi River from where Russian forces in eastern Severodonstsk can be spotted from 4/5 miles distance in the area they occupy now.
Area viewable of gmap https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Ukr ... 31.1655799

It could be very costly for Russian forces to press forward towards the river (not that Putin will worry too much about that).
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:06 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:03 pm
I've seen a report that the Russians occupy the largely destroyed and evacuated residential eastern side of Severodonetsk, the Ukrainians have pulled back to the western side which is largely industrial and will be probably easier to defend (as per the Mariupol area that Russians found very difficult to take). Also- there is higher ground immediately to the west of the Siverskyi River from where Russian forces in eastern Severodonstsk can be spotted from 4/5 miles distance in the area they occupy now.
Area viewable of gmap https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Ukr ... 31.1655799

It could be very costly for Russian forces to press forward towards the river (not that Putin will worry too much about that).
Makes even more sense for the Ukrainians to withdraw behind the Siverskyi river to be honest

Too easy to get trapped on the wrong side, and at the end of the day, the task of Severodonetsk was to soak up the Russian offensive power, and its done that

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:14 pm

NEXTA: US announces $700 million military aid to Ukraine

The 11th military aid package for Ukraine includes:

🔹High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS)
🔹Anti-aircraft radars
🔹Javelin anti-tank systems, helicopters and cars

📰 US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... C8MSM_1TMw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:49 pm

REUTERS: Pentagon briefing outlines new security assistance for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1532 ... 3j-QxOgemw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:55 pm

Hi all,

Hi Lancaster: wonder if you could help me, please? I'm on the Institute for the Study of War site and want to open the daily update (you often put a link to it). For some reason, I can't open the update. Do I need to sign up to their email updates?

Many thanks!

ecc

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:58 pm

Sorry. Just worked it out. Senior moment. :)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:26 pm

NEW YORK TIMES: After winning the Nobel Peace Prize, the journalist Dmitri Muratov said he thought the honor should have gone to a different Russian: the jailed opposition leader Aleksei Navalny. Now, he will auction it to help children who are refugees from Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1532 ... 3j-QxOgemw
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:13 pm

I'm not a big fan of Skynews but they regularly have Professor Michael Clarke doing updates on the Ukraine war and I find his little updates easy to follow - he seems to have some good information sources.
His piece today (linked) mentions (in the last minute or so) something not much covered elsewhere- Ukrainian advances away from Mykolaiv towards Kherson + further north-east along that front pressing southwards . Could be that the Russians are putting so many resources into Donbas that they are vulnerable here and that they may need to reinforce or cede ground. Good luck to the Ukrainians in this action anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d73DmF ... sAustralia

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:44 pm

ecc wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:55 pm
Hi all,

Hi Lancaster: wonder if you could help me, please? I'm on the Institute for the Study of War site and want to open the daily update (you often put a link to it). For some reason, I can't open the update. Do I need to sign up to their email updates?

Many thanks!

ecc
Shouldn't do, I grab and open it from twitter

This is the most recent one I think

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/statu ... 7950436352

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 8:38 am

Detailed review of the situation in the Donbas.

https://youtu.be/RpC1kXhW2Lw
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:01 am

LeadBelly wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:13 pm
I'm not a big fan of Skynews but they regularly have Professor Michael Clarke doing updates on the Ukraine war and I find his little updates easy to follow - he seems to have some good information sources.
His piece today (linked) mentions (in the last minute or so) something not much covered elsewhere- Ukrainian advances away from Mykolaiv towards Kherson + further north-east along that front pressing southwards . Could be that the Russians are putting so many resources into Donbas that they are vulnerable here and that they may need to reinforce or cede ground. Good luck to the Ukrainians in this action anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d73DmF ... sAustralia
I read the daily updates at the Institute for Study of War linked on here. They've been explaining what's going on near Kherson, and Karkiv and how it all fits together in an overall strategy. I'd recommend them.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ent-june-1

https://www.understandingwar.org/

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:15 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:11 pm
OXFORD ACADEMIC: There are still many questions surrounding the war in the Ukraine and many we don't have answers to as of yet. Hear from Serhy Yekelchyk, author of 'Ukraine: What Everyone Needs to Know®', as he answers one question - who is Putin fighting against?

https://twitter.com/oupacademic/status/ ... C8MSM_1TMw
Is there anything really new in this article? A summary would be that Putin wants a pro-Russian government in Ukraine (as he has in Belarus). He had this until the recent Ukrainian revolutions. We knew this already.

And actually, Putin is not now fighting just against Ukraine but 'The West'. Ukraine have become proxy.

A more interesting question would be 'if "The West" hadn't introduced sanctions and supplied weapons (and intelligence) would Ukraine have been defeated by now? I don't know the answer but I suspect 'yes'. Defeated or given up/compromised in peace talks.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:32 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:12 pm

link to numerous articles regarding the whole sorry state of this war, economics, sanctions and from a retired general for any interested parties

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/rus ... r-4681361/

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:56 pm

KYIV INDEPENDENT: Turkey to give Lithuania Bayraktar drone it wanted to buy for Ukraine for free, according to Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas.

Lithuania fundraised 5 million euros for the purpose. It will now spend it on ammunition for the drone and other ways to support Ukraine

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... QQD0MtpHDQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:59 pm

KYIV INDEPENDENT: Loud explosion reported in Russian-occupied Berdiansk.

According to the city council, the explosion was heard near the port in the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on June 2. No details have been published yet.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... QQD0MtpHDQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:02 pm

Michael Kofman (via Elint news): Rob Lee and Kofman collaborate to do a deep dive into Russian force design choices & their implications. This article extensively explores some of what we have learned about the Russian military in this war, and why it matters.

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/statu ... QQD0MtpHDQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:25 pm

ELINT NEWS: Newsweek: A classified US report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer and also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... QQD0MtpHDQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:26 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:59 pm
KYIV INDEPENDENT: Loud explosion reported in Russian-occupied Berdiansk.

According to the city council, the explosion was heard near the port in the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on June 2. No details have been published yet.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... QQD0MtpHDQ
Been confirmed as mine clearing operations in the dock area
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:02 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:58 pm

Here's an interesting briefing from an Austrian military Colonel. Well... allegedly. Could just be a guy in a costume for all I know. But he sounds legit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpC1kXhW2Lw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 04, 2022 8:17 am

https://understandingwar.org/background ... ent-june-3

June 3rd update

This is going to drag on for a fair while and the knock on effects world wide won't get any better for longer than that

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:19 pm

BBC News - The Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61607184
I reckon disapproval back in Russia will increase as more and more soldiers quit.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:55 pm

BBC NEWS: Ukraine anger as Macron says 'Don't humiliate Russia'

Ukraine anger as Macron says 'Don't humiliate Russia'

Macron trying to placate a dictator, how very French.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:58 pm

OBrien on Mcron’s speech..

Philips OBrien: This strikes me as a speech that makes no sense. The issue is not to humiliate Putin or not--thats a question of hurt feelings. Its whether Putin is to be offered something as a way of making him stop the war.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 7xRaWgsy6w

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 04, 2022 7:15 pm

OSINTtechnical: A fairly new captured Russian MBT now in Ukrainian service.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 7xRaWgsy6w

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:10 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:09 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:58 pm
OBrien on Mcron’s speech..

Philips OBrien: This strikes me as a speech that makes no sense. The issue is not to humiliate Putin or not--thats a question of hurt feelings. Its whether Putin is to be offered something as a way of making him stop the war.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 7xRaWgsy6w
He's an embarrassment.
Whatever his private beliefs are, he should keep them to himself. To voice that publicly is a slap in the face for the Ukraine.
Many posters on here have had Macrons number for a long time, but if there is to be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, it should be someone appointed by both sides,not some self interested, self proclaimed nonce, who tries to appease Putin at every turn.

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Re: Russia In

Post by Elbarad » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:33 am

I would rather have Macron the Le Pen but good grief that was a bad thing to say. All during the campaign saying she was basically in Putin’s pocket. She could hardly have said worse.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 10:06 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 10:11 am

French supplied Caesar self-propelled guns

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/statu ... 7789211648

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:41 pm

REUTERS: Ukraine must not be pressured into a bad peace deal, UK PM says

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... bjFetBbJ7g
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