Russia Invades

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 5:07 pm

Kyiv Independent - Russians heavily shell Sumy Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast.

Russia shelled the northern Ukrainian regions 10 times on May 29, the State Border Guard Service reported.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... NAI0snFJrA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 6:53 pm

OSINTtechnical: Kherson, Ukrainian forces walk artillery fire onto a Russian group

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... NAI0snFJrA

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Sun May 29, 2022 6:54 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sun May 29, 2022 5:07 pm
Kyiv Independent - Russians heavily shell Sumy Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast.

Russia shelled the northern Ukrainian regions 10 times on May 29, the State Border Guard Service reported.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... NAI0snFJrA

The only way it stops is if Ukraine get the LRMS they've been after, and quickly.

Reading about the Germans dragging their feet, and I already didn't trust Macron, sort of sums up the priorities of these 2 countries. Its all about business, and the sooner they can get back in bed with Putin, the happier they'll be.
The sanctions we are putting in place will only work effectively, if we all work together, pressure needs to be brought by the rest of Europe and NATO, to get them to toe the moral line.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 6:54 pm

BBC: President Zelenskii visits Kharkiv for first time since tthe invasion started.

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... NAI0snFJrA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 7:12 pm

OSINTtechnical: Ukrainian forces utilize an improvised drone deployed munition against a Russian BTR-82

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... NAI0snFJrA

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 7:13 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑
Sun May 29, 2022 6:54 pm
The only way it stops is if Ukraine get the LRMS they've been after, and quickly.

Reading about the Germans dragging their feet, and I already didn't trust Macron, sort of sums up the priorities of these 2 countries. Its all about business, and the sooner they can get back in bed with Putin, the happier they'll be.
The sanctions we are putting in place will only work effectively, if we all work together, pressure needs to be brought by the rest of Europe and NATO, to get them to toe the moral line.

Again, the reality of sanctions is pretty effective

https://theovershoot.co/p/russia-is-los ... mports?s=r

I think its important to realise that there has to be a path to peace, and for that to happen, someone has to talk to Putin about it

Macron is about a good a choice as anyone to be honest

Regarding Germany, I think people are forgetting that they have been forced to confront their past (in a way we never have for example) and changing tack from what they are to a military power in Europe again is not something they are going to do overnight

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 7:14 pm

OSINTtechnical - Radio Free Europe- Czech Republic and Poland to send additional weaponry to Ukraine

Poland will give Ukraine 18 AHS Krab self-propelled howitzers

“Czech media have reported that T-72 tanks, BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles, Dana howitzers…

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... NAI0snFJrA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 7:18 pm

ROB LEE: The first evidence Russia is using loitering munitions in Ukraine. This looks like a Kalashnikov ZALA Aero KUB-BLA loitering munition.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1502 ... NAI0snFJrA

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sun May 29, 2022 8:36 pm

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... y-12622499
Russia going forward will lose an absolute fortune as the west turns away from them.

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sun May 29, 2022 9:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sun May 29, 2022 2:39 pm
At the time, with the info available, then yeah

With the benefit of hindsight, then no

I think (personally) that the Vichy French fleet in French North Africa wouldn't have surrendered itself to the Germans, and would almost certainly have scuttled

You have to remember that the Free French were convinced large part of Africa to join with them, but not Dakar, French North Africa, Syria, Madagascar or Indo-China

Have to add the attack on Dakar by a British/Free French force in 1940 that failed as well

Even when the Allies attacked North Africa during Operation Torch, there was a couple of days of heavy fighting - USS Massachusetts sank a couple of French destroyers in support of the landing

It's a difficult one to call, Lancaster, but decisions, as you know, have to be made at a certain point in time. As is the case today.

Whatever. Right now we have to hope politicians make the right ones in Ukraine.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 10:20 pm

https://twitter.com/navalhistorian/stat ... 7029632002

Thread on reopening Ukrainian Ports to try to solve the Russian supply bottleneck issue

(Starts in mid April, continues to 1 hour ago)

Basically, hard to tell but looks like Mariupol is some way of being operational (not surprisingly really) and they haven't been able to use Berdynsk because of security concerns

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun May 29, 2022 11:33 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑
Sun May 29, 2022 6:54 pm
The only way it stops is if Ukraine get the LRMS they've been after, and quickly.

Reading about the Germans dragging their feet, and I already didn't trust Macron, sort of sums up the priorities of these 2 countries. Its all about business, and the sooner they can get back in bed with Putin, the happier they'll be.
The sanctions we are putting in place will only work effectively, if we all work together, pressure needs to be brought by the rest of Europe and NATO, to get them to toe the moral line.

Fully agree, The Germans are referring to type, but trying to do it quietly. Macron feels empowered, and can cut into the National Front vote further by cutting Le Penne’s Russian backing…. Suck up to Putin. I kind of admire Germany’s pacifist stance, but it does now smack of ignoring a former leader of theirs, as he built momentum. Macron is modern man, all about self interest and maintaining power…. Putin and him have a lot to talk about, away from the EU, I would guess.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 9:10 am

An analysis of the Russians learning and tactical changes. Worth a read.

https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/stat ... cRn6Doc9Eg

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 10:44 am

This is the reality of Russian cutting a countries gas and oil supplies

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mill ... -b7gl2ckx9

Not something that democratic governments can easily survive, which explains the reluctance of some EU nations to want to put their citizens into this scenario

I'll be interested to see how we hold up with our famous, er, "Dunkirk Spirit" if it happens to us

Course, I'm more in the "we live in a country where people rang the police when KFC ran out of chicken" then "Dunkirk Spirit" but I guess we will see!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 11:14 am

Interesting piece of the information war and sources

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 1426793474

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Mon May 30, 2022 11:18 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon May 30, 2022 10:44 am
This is the reality of Russian cutting a countries gas and oil supplies

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mill ... -b7gl2ckx9

Not something that democratic governments can easily survive, which explains the reluctance of some EU nations to want to put their citizens into this scenario

I'll be interested to see how we hold up with our famous, er, "Dunkirk Spirit" if it happens to us

Course, I'm more in the "we live in a country where people rang the police when KFC ran out of chicken" then "Dunkirk Spirit" but I guess we will see!

I would hope most people would be prepared to tighten their metaphoric belts, if our shortages in anyway helps the Ukraine.
I would consider it pathetic to complain.
We have a little time on our side, in order to make the pain as bearable as possible. Also time to prioritise those people/institutions the most in need.
But there is something everyone of us can do individually to help. Turning lights off, not overfilling the bath, car sharing, turning the thermostat down 2 degrees. A million small steps make a massive difference. Why wait for the shortages when we can start today.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 11:21 am

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑
Mon May 30, 2022 11:18 am
I would hope most people would be prepared to tighten their metaphoric belts, if our shortages in anyway helps the Ukraine.
I would consider it pathetic to complain.
We have a little time on our side, in order to make the pain as bearable as possible. Also time to prioritise those people/institutions the most in need.
But there is something everyone of us can do individually to help. Turning lights off, not overfilling the bath, car sharing, turning the thermostat down 2 degrees. A million small steps make a massive difference. Why wait for the shortages when we can start today.

I admire your optimism Colburn!

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:10 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon May 30, 2022 11:21 am
I admire your optimism Colburn!

I know, but I'd rather live with my optimism than with someone else's pessimism. Nothing personal in that

Black Lives Matter will have started with one person's optimism. If we all waited for someone else to do something first, nothing would ever get done.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:17 pm

NEXTA: Current map of hostilities in Ukraine according to BILD

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

(Please note btw, Bild is not the best of sources for information - equivalent reliance to British press)

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:23 pm

NEXTA: "There is no military infrastructure, just a solar power plant"

Russian troops bombed a solar power plant in the Kharkiv region. Its director is sure that the strike was purposeful. The moment of the strike was caught on video.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:31 pm

Phillips OBrien (retweet and reaction follow ups): “We stand with you. Our hearts and thoughts are with you. (…) Putin will not win.” - Olaf Scholz

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... NK5LdL-mnQ

- Points out a really interesting thread which might be termed actual realism as opposed to the fantasy realism of Mearsheimer et al.

https://twitter.com/h62736360/status/15 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:35 pm

NEXTA: Kadyrov showed a beaten captive soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, accompanying the video with a inscription: "accidentally stepped on a rake."

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:37 pm

Kyiv Independent: Russian shelling of Mykolaiv damages 21 houses, injures 1 person on May 30.

According to Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych, the regional capital in the south of Ukraine is currently under the threat of artillery fire.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:39 pm

REUTERS: Britain could keep coal-fired power plants open this winter

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:41 pm

NEXTA: In the Lugansk region, Russian troops fired on an evacuation transport - a French journalist was killed

The fragments of the shell pierced the armor of the car, the journalist who was preparing the material about the evacuation was mortally wounded in the neck

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:48 pm

Iryna Matviyishyn: (on above story) A French journalist killed by Russians in Severodonetsk

https://twitter.com/imatviyishyn/status ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:50 pm

Phillips OBrien: This is what I don’t get about those calling for the Ukrainians publicly to cede lots of territory. At best that land will see brutal ethnic cleansing, and possibly mass murder on an epic scale. The Ukrainians on that territory will be wiped out. They are calling for this.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... NK5LdL-mnQ

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:59 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑
Mon May 30, 2022 1:10 pm
I know, but I'd rather live with my optimism than with someone else's pessimism. Nothing personal in that

Black Lives Matter will have started with one person's optimism. If we all waited for someone else to do something first, nothing would ever get done.

My pessimism is based on the horrible situation that millions in the country are now in sadly

Thing is, if Russia completely cuts off oil and gas supplies, then it hastens its own collapse, so I'm not sure how likely this is

What I would say is that if Russia does do this, its because its losing very, very, very badly

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 2:13 pm

NEXTA: In two months, sappers have defused more than 10.5 thousand explosive objects in Kyiv region, Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine reports.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 2:14 pm

Kyiv Independent: GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: Governor: French journalist killed during evacuation effort in Luhansk Oblast.

According to Serhiy Haidai, Russian forces shelled an armored evacuation vehicle, killing French reporter Frédéric Leclerc Imhoff, who was covering the effort

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 2:19 pm

NEXTA: Russian command has engaged all its forces and attempting to encircle our troops in Donetsk and Luhansk regions,"said Defense Ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzianyk.

According to him, the most difficult situation is now in the Severodonetsk, Bakhmut and Kurakhov directions.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... NK5LdL-mnQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 2:55 pm

BBC WS: Eurovision winners' trophy sold to buy drones for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... nCxcqjaJMQ

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon May 30, 2022 3:31 pm

not sure if this has been posted, all about the MLRS systems Ukraine are getting and the HUGE difference it should make
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/153 ... VZVdSbfJdA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 4:00 pm

NEW YORK TIMES: Breaking News: The EU is poised to reach a deal on a Russian oil ban, its most significant move to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. It gave concessions to Hungary.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1531 ... Hug_KlLUZQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 4:03 pm

REUTERS: Russia's Medvedev calls Biden announcement on Ukraine rocket systems 'rational'

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1531 ... Hug_KlLUZQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 4:07 pm

NEXTA: France will send an additional batch of Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... Hug_KlLUZQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 4:34 pm

Anastasiia Lapatina: Putin ordered to simplify the process of attaining citizenship for kids without parental care who are from Ukraine, or the so-called republics in occupied Donbas. Ukrainian authorities say Russia already deported around 2,000 orphans to the territories it controls

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/15 ... Hug_KlLUZQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 4:49 pm

REUTERS: Ukrainian servicemen patrolled trenches in the frontline Donetsk region, as they fought off Russian attempts to capture more land in the eastern part of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1531 ... Hug_KlLUZQ

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 7:33 pm

Sky news crew with a Ukrainian Grad missile unit

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... m-12624276

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon May 30, 2022 10:09 pm

Daily update May 30th

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ent-may-30

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 7:37 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61638860

More EU sanctions on Russia, including total ban on oil imports by sea

All going to have an effect, and the trajectory is tougher and tougher sanctions

And they will seriously effect Russia

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 5:50 pm

https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/would ... n-ukraine/

Very interesting article on maybe the Russians are not as bad at fighting as is being portrayed, and maybe we in the West are too complacent about what happens when the Russian steam roller gets going

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 6:53 pm

ROB LEE: Crazy footage of a Russian T-72B3 running over two anti-tank mines before being struck presumably by artillery and destroyed. Remarkably, the crew seems to have survived.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1531 ... 9zA2ADILWw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 6:54 pm

ROB LEE: Ukrainian paratroopers ambushed a Russian MT-LB from an engineering unit.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1531 ... 9zA2ADILWw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 6:58 pm

Phillips OBrien - I think this means that the Ukrainians wont blow their army out making risky assaults into Russian held territory. Smart if leading to a drawn out, attritional summer. Better to weaken the Russians with ranged weapons for a while first.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 9zA2ADILWw

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Tue May 31, 2022 7:25 pm

I think the Russians will find that holding territory will be fraught with difficulty and there will be lots of these incidents.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/bomb-hits-rus ... 00182.html

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 7:57 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Tue May 31, 2022 7:25 pm
I think the Russians will find that holding territory will be fraught with difficulty and there will be lots of these incidents.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/bomb-hits-rus ... 00182.html

The hypocrisy of them is what I find most astounding. Talk about existing in an alternative reality.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue May 31, 2022 9:08 pm

NEXTA: The invaders fired at a chemical plant in Severodonetsk. As a result of the shelling, a tank with nitric acid exploded.

The head of the Luhansk regional administration, Serhiy Haidai, urges citizens not to leave their shelters and close all windows.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... 9zA2ADILWw

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:38 am

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/stat ... 0224482304

Update on German weapons going to Ukraine

Firthy · Post by **Firthy** » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:43 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:38 am
https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/stat ... 0224482304

Update on German weapons going to Ukraine

Paired with the long range GPS guided rocket launchers the US will be providing, it could be very effective.