Russia Invades

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Vegas Claret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 3:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:45 pm
No point in getting surrounded in a city that essentially is now just rubble

I do wonder if the Russians think they can rebuild all these captured areas, or do they think they will be forced to give them all back, and just destroying them because they are Ukrainian
this is where the 1 trillion dollars of seized and frozen assets come into play

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Re: Russia In

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:49 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:33 am
I would rather have Macron the Le Pen but good grief that was a bad thing to say
I agree, and I also think it was most unwise of Zelenskiy to comment about yesterday's events here in the UK parliament, given how divisive the issue is, both within the governing party and the wider public.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:20 pm

Found this American who does a daily analysis of the war. Detailed analysis with 3D maps, gives a great insight into what’s going on. He has also done a 3-4 part interview with James Vasquez which is also good but crazy. I will put a link to part 1.

https://youtu.be/ZPn3spKYYDQ


Part 1 of the JV interview.

https://youtu.be/QNXkc07ihiY

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Re: Russia In

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:56 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:49 pm
I agree, and I also think it was most unwise of Zelenskiy to comment about yesterday's events here in the UK parliament, given how divisive the issue is, both within the governing party and the wider public.
Surely it's wise of Zelensky to offer support to somebody who is supporting him with materiel he desperately needs to defend his country from being conquered by Putin.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 7:06 pm

Another detailed review, takes some reading but informative.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-i ... rn-warfare

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:28 pm

NEXTA: The war in Ukraine is easier for a Russian soldier than the Chechen one. Then the soldiers had to carry televisions stolen from the rich villages of Ichkeria, which were much heavier than modern ones.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... mhavWDSpyA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 08, 2022 4:44 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:06 pm

REUTERS: Russia's economic slump will wipe out 15 years of gains - IIF

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1534 ... a9WAkh3bUQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:18 pm

OSINTtechnical: Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade troops launch a DJI Mavic 2 armed with a modified VOG-17M 30mm grenade

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... a9WAkh3bUQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:53 pm

UKRAINE WEAPONS TRACKER: Vector Pinzgauer 718 6x6 armored patrol vehicles were delivered from the UK to Ukraine today.

Interestingly, these vehicles were purchased by a Ukrainian soldier from a private company, using his own money and then donated them to the the Territorial Defense Forces.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... a9WAkh3bUQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:46 am

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status ... opSJg&s=19

More and more Russians being identified and targeted for sanctions

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:50 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:53 pm
UKRAINE WEAPONS TRACKER: Vector Pinzgauer 718 6x6 armored patrol vehicles were delivered from the UK to Ukraine today.

Interestingly, these vehicles were purchased by a Ukrainian soldier from a private company, using his own money and then donated them to the the Territorial Defense Forces.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... a9WAkh3bUQ
Hopefully the 6x6 are better than the 4x4 versions
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by lakedistrictclaret » Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:46 pm

The Premier League have just suspended an agreement whereby games can be shown in Russia.
That'll teach them!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:02 pm

Screenshot_20220609-150148.png
Screenshot_20220609-150148.png (330.26 KiB) Viewed 3319 times

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by tarkys_ears » Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:37 pm

lakedistrictclaret wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:46 pm
The Premier League have just suspended an agreement whereby games can be shown in Russia.
That'll teach them!
Anything that cuts them off from the outside world is fine with me

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:14 pm

tarkys_ears wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:37 pm
Anything that cuts them off from the outside world is fine with me
I imagine those that really want to watch it will get a stream somehow, but I agree, it’s more a statement that the civilised world is isolating them and will hopefully never work with them economically again.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:28 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:30 pm

https://twitter.com/TarasKuzio/status/1 ... 7269611523

Kyi'v council cancels the foundation charter for Moscow, which was formed in 1147 by the Kievan Rus

The sort of cancel culture we can all get behind!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:24 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KRBFC » Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:21 pm

They can't even win in Ukraine and continue throwing resources at it, they'd get absolutely obliterated aerially by NATO it would be over in weeks.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Bosscat » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:52 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Cirrus_Minor » Sat Jun 11, 2022 6:33 pm

Gets more and more bizarre to the point you know it’s probably true, which is in itself bizarre.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:15 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:52 pm
No sh*t Sherlock 🙄
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 98791.html
I wonder if they've needed bigger cases since this war didn't go so well for Putin?

Fortunately he has diplomatic immunity so there is no need for his cases to be searched by customs.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:28 pm

KRBFC wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:21 pm
They can't even win in Ukraine and continue throwing resources at it, they'd get absolutely obliterated aerially by NATO it would be over in weeks.
Unfortunately, I think he would resort to throwing Nukes around . IN a conventional war, it would be days not weeks. He has run out of his most advanced munitions now.
Dare not fly planes against a country with no real Air Force.
Lost 12 ships/boats to a country with no Navy.

The Russians don’t have secure comms, they don’t have night vision.

All they have for us to fear is Nukes.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KRBFC » Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:33 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:28 pm
Unfortunately, I think he would resort to throwing Nukes around . IN a conventional war, it would be days not weeks. He has run out of his most advanced munitions now.
Dare not fly planes against a country with no real Air Force.
Lost 12 ships/boats to a country with no Navy.

The Russians don’t have secure comms, they don’t have night vision.

All they have for us to fear is Nukes.
So they have nothing for us to fear then

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:35 pm

:cry:
Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:28 pm
Unfortunately, I think he would resort to throwing Nukes around . IN a conventional war, it would be days not weeks. He has run out of his most advanced munitions now.
Dare not fly planes against a country with no real Air Force.
Lost 12 ships/boats to a country with no Navy.

The Russians don’t have secure comms, they don’t have night vision.

All they have for us to fear is Nukes.
What makes you think they work/are real?

From what I’m understanding from this war, the Russians are good at pretending to have a lot of things that they don’t.

Sometimes I think the only thing bully’s understand is force and the longer you appear to be scared of them the longer the suffering continues.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:54 pm

KRBFC wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:33 pm
So they have nothing for us to fear then
You don’t fear being Nuked, ok then.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:57 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:35 pm
:cry:

What makes you think they work/are real?

From what I’m understanding from this war, the Russians are good at pretending to have a lot of things that they don’t.

Sometimes I think the only thing bully’s understand is force and the longer you appear to be scared of them the longer the suffering continues.
I believe they absolutely have Nukes, if half didn’t work, we would still have an inhibited island.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KRBFC » Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:00 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:54 pm
You don’t fear being Nuked, ok then.
Absolutely not, if Putin made that mistake, Russia would be nuked into oblivion too.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:26 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:57 pm
I believe they absolutely have Nukes, if half didn’t work, we would still have an inhibited island.
I wouldn’t have said this before this war, but I now think their bark is worse than their bite.

They’re relying on conscripts and soviet era equipment, unencrypted comms, can’t sit their logistics, etc.

I don’t think the world should or does fear them anymore.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:18 am

Of course we should still fear the Russians, or Putin's Russia at least.

We have here an unstable character (at least as we see it) with some powerful weapons (nuclear). That's why NATO can't just dive in there like they did in the former Yugoslavia. Putin knows this and we know this.

It's true that we have always over estimated their capabilities (perhaps for procurement reasons or just being cautious) but in this war the Russians are still on the offensive and still making incremental progress. They may well be able to last longer in this slog then Ukraine supported by the west. There may come a point where Ukraine collapses. We in the west aren't geared up for a war that goes on for long so we may well run out of material to support them. Although I read the Institute of War reports I feel they're a bit optimistic from our point of view.

You may argue that sanctions will affect Russia (and they will) but has there been a case where sanctions have achieved the desired effect (Cuba, Iran, Rhodesia, North Korea......). Energy and other raw materials will be desirable for the foreseeable future so they will still get an income whether we like it or not. Finally I think we in the west are selfish and in the medium to longer term we will bend these sanctions to suit our requirements, be it energy or in the UK's case, money services. If we don't we risk political instability from 'the people's' suffering.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:41 am

Hipper wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:18 am
Of course we should still fear the Russians, or Putin's Russia at least.

We have here an unstable character (at least as we see it) with some powerful weapons (nuclear). That's why NATO can't just dive in there like they did in the former Yugoslavia. Putin knows this and we know this.

It's true that we have always over estimated their capabilities (perhaps for procurement reasons or just being cautious) but in this war the Russians are still on the offensive and still making incremental progress. They may well be able to last longer in this slog then Ukraine supported by the west. There may come a point where Ukraine collapses. We in the west aren't geared up for a war that goes on for long so we may well run out of material to support them. Although I read the Institute of War reports I feel they're a bit optimistic from our point of view.

You may argue that sanctions will affect Russia (and they will) but has there been a case where sanctions have achieved the desired effect (Cuba, Iran, Rhodesia, North Korea......). Energy and other raw materials will be desirable for the foreseeable future so they will still get an income whether we like it or not. Finally I think we in the west are selfish and in the medium to longer term we will bend these sanctions to suit our requirements, be it energy or in the UK's case, money services. If we don't we risk political instability from 'the people's' suffering.
All I'll say to that is that the Russians first plan was to take all of Ukraine, then take Kyi'v, then encircle the whole Donbass, then encircle a bit of the Donbass, and now its fighting like mad for a city in Luhansk oblast that has zero strategic significance

Thats because of a combination of Ukrainian resistance and a fairly rapid decline of Russian combat power, especially in modern equipment and trained soldiers

I see a few pro-Russian accounts, and if you think ISW is slightly more optimistic to the Ukrainians then you've not seen these guys. Its military fantasy based on Russian state propaganda

You have to remember that they said they had pulled out of Northern Ukraine because they "had achieved all their objectives", not because of the pretty catastrophic military defeat they had suffered, and you have to base everything on what they tell their own people versus what is happening in the field

In the field, the Russians clearly have a lot of artillery, and have concentrated it where they want to advance. That means smashing up every town or city or village in their path before they occupy the ruins, which doesn't help them strategically, doesn't help them economically, and doesn't help them with their message that they are here to "liberate"

Ukraine has essentially unlimited credit with the West (certainly for at least two more years, dependent on US elections) and Russia can only maintain the war by shipping its oil and gas to the West, who are gradually using other sources to replace Russian oil and gas

I agree that the situation with arms from the West is potentially an issue, but it really shouldn't be, as NATO countries and infrastructure should be in a position to resupply Ukraine by now

Russia's best chance (like you say) is that the west is affected by the current situation so much that it changes course but to do that it has to cut its supply of oil and gas, and if it does that, its runs out of money quickly

In conclusion, Russia has to try to hope that it can exchange some of the territory its captured for recognition of some of its earlier conquests, and I think that is very, very, very unlikely
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:45 am

We seem to have slowed down our assistance no end.
We talk the talk, but when Ukraine is crying out fir long range missiles, we promise them, but where are they on the ground. Early in this war the logistics seemed to be excellent at delivery, now its like pulling teeth.

If we let Ukraine down, we are letting ourselves and the world down. Despite what Macron thinks, this can only end when Putin is seen to be the loser.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:42 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:41 am
All I'll say to that is that the Russians first plan was to take all of Ukraine, then take Kyi'v, then encircle the whole Donbass, then encircle a bit of the Donbass, and now its fighting like mad for a city in Luhansk oblast that has zero strategic significance

Thats because of a combination of Ukrainian resistance and a fairly rapid decline of Russian combat power, especially in modern equipment and trained soldiers

I see a few pro-Russian accounts, and if you think ISW is slightly more optimistic to the Ukrainians then you've not seen these guys. Its military fantasy based on Russian state propaganda

You have to remember that they said they had pulled out of Northern Ukraine because they "had achieved all their objectives", not because of the pretty catastrophic military defeat they had suffered, and you have to base everything on what they tell their own people versus what is happening in the field

In the field, the Russians clearly have a lot of artillery, and have concentrated it where they want to advance. That means smashing up every town or city or village in their path before they occupy the ruins, which doesn't help them strategically, doesn't help them economically, and doesn't help them with their message that they are here to "liberate"

Ukraine has essentially unlimited credit with the West (certainly for at least two more years, dependent on US elections) and Russia can only maintain the war by shipping its oil and gas to the West, who are gradually using other sources to replace Russian oil and gas

I agree that the situation with arms from the West is potentially an issue, but it really shouldn't be, as NATO countries and infrastructure should be in a position to resupply Ukraine by now

Russia's best chance (like you say) is that the west is affected by the current situation so much that it changes course but to do that it has to cut its supply of oil and gas, and if it does that, its runs out of money quickly

In conclusion, Russia has to try to hope that it can exchange some of the territory its captured for recognition of some of its earlier conquests, and I think that is very, very, very unlikely
I think you are concentrating too much on the propaganda war.

Oil and gas is not only bought by the West. At the current prices Russia can and seems to be selling it at a discount and there are buyers (India at least we know about). The longer the war and western sanctions go on the more other, non western countries with their own agenda, will buy from Russia (that is unless we persuade the big sellers to flood the market with cheaper energy which we haven't managed to do yet).

Of course I understand that the Russians have had to lower their war aims because of their failures. I'm trying to look at the situation now, in the field. Russia are blasting away in the style we know they can. We don't know their logistic situation but it seems pretty good at the moment for the type of war they are fighting. They don't seem to have a supply problem as they had earlier in the war. We don't see attacks on supplies by Ukraine forces as we did earlier (they may be happening but we no longer get the videos. I suspect that is because they are not happening). Whilst they don't have unlimited manpower (we hear bits about recruitment issues but how representative are they?) they have more then Ukraine. Same with equipment and supplies. Ukraine has longer supply routes (the west) and it may be that Russia is getting intelligence on the routes and storage facilities and is attacking them (we have heard of some odd attacks on apparently ordinary garages for example). Further, the info from Ukraine seems to be getting more desperate - 'losing up to 200m men a day', 'we are running out of shells'. Whether these are accurate or just part of their attempt to get more material from the west I can't say. In short, Russia seems to have changed its tactics to fit their capabilities and it seems to be working, albeit slowly. It's a war of attrition and they seem to have the advantages.

Severodonetsk, when looking at the map, does have tactical significance as well as a morale one. It opens the door to Lysychansk and Bakhmut. They also seem to be trying to surround that whole area although their achievements so far look very small. How long can Ukrainian forces take this pummelling. What numbers and where are the Ukrainian forces set out (the ISW doesn't tell us).

It seems to me that Russia is slowly (very slowly) achieving its current war aims and will stop when they are satisfied. I'm not convinced the Ukrainians can stop the Russians. Russia will decide when to stop. Maybe afterwards the West will re-arm Ukraine to such an extent that they can start a war to regain their territory. I doubt it.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:48 pm

KYIV INDEPENDENT: Baza: Explosions inside Russia damage 'Druzhba' oil pipeline valve.

Three explosions were heard on June 11, near Gulevka in Russia’s Bryansk region, damaging parts of the pipeline’s valve but not the pipeline itself, Baza reported quoting Russian state-controlled media.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... UxqfxuvZxA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:52 pm

Ministry of Defence: The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is continuing.

The map below is the latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 12 June 2022

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/15 ... UxqfxuvZxA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:54 pm

NEXTA: Ukraine has established two grain export routes through Poland and Romania

📰Reuters with reference to the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Senik.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... UxqfxuvZxA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:57 pm

Kyiv Independent: UK intelligence: Russia to deploy reserve battalions in Ukraine.

Russia may rely on new recruits or mobilized reservists to bring in a new battalion in eastern Ukraine, U.K.’s latest Ministry of Defense report stated.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... UxqfxuvZxA

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Re: Russia Invad

Post by Elbarad » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:58 pm

Russia can declare victory and stop when they want. That doesn’t mean Ukraine will let them as long as we continue to arm them. Of course if we fail to do so, they will have no choice but to seek terms. The West’s willingness to be stand fast in the face of disinterest or opposition from our general public is I believe key.

I look at these maps every day and it’s easy for me to see the lines of control moving back and forth and think something important has happened. But on most days movement for either side is measured in tiny increments and capture of tiny villages of no importance save to their pitiable inhabitants.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:58 pm

OUR GLORIOUS DEAD:

BBC NW: A former British solider from Glossop in Derbyshire has been killed fighting for the Ukrainian armed forces. Jordan Gatley has been described by his father Dean as a "hero" in a tribute on Facebook.

https://twitter.com/bbcnwt/status/15359 ... UxqfxuvZxA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jun 12, 2022 4:57 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:00 pm

ROB LEE: Video of D-30 artillery strikes from Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade and the 81st Airmobile Brigade reportedly on a Russian ammunition depot.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1536 ... MALi8D1Jjw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:49 pm

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 5801182209

Good breakdown on the shortage of artillery shells affecting Ukrainian artillery

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:55 pm

It is getting concerning regarding the lack of supplies getting through to the Ukrainian army, Russia seem to be gaining some momentum by sheer weight of numbers. Hopefully when the USA kit arrives it should help.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:58 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:55 pm
It is getting concerning regarding the lack of supplies getting through to the Ukrainian army, Russia seem to be gaining some momentum by sheer weight of numbers. Hopefully when the USA kit arrives it should help.
It shows that even in a high tech war, you can do a lot with just bog standard artillery shells

Ukraine certainly have the ability to be a lot more accurate with Western arms and munitions, but as Russia just isn't bothered about collateral damage or anything like that it can make their tubed artillery fairly effective

But again, they are moving at WW1 pace with a highly mechanized army designed for breakthrough and exploitation, and taking casualties in men and material they cannot afford

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:10 pm

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 3006228480

States that border Russia are not going to be as complacent as some in dealing with the reality of dealing with Russia as we go forward

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:18 pm

German imports from Russia are heading for a record high this year. (Almost 16 billion Euros Jan-April, mainly driven by high oil/gas pricing.)
I dare say that'll be the case for a couple of other countries in Europe too (and probably China).

Not sure what Germany can send to Ukraine to make up for that, it'll take a lot of helmets.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/plus2393 ... nn-je.html

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:24 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:18 pm
German imports from Russia are heading for a record high this year. (Almost 16 billion Euros Jan-April, mainly driven by high oil/gas pricing.)
I dare say that'll be the case for a couple of other countries in Europe too (and probably China).

Not sure what Germany can send to Ukraine to make up for that, it'll take a lot of helmets.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/plus2393 ... nn-je.html
I think everyone needs to bear in mind that you can't expect a democratic country to switch off its reliance on Russian oil and gas overnight

They certainly could improve the speed in which they supply weapons to Ukraine, but again, the complicated relationship between Russia and Germany (based on a lot of history) makes that not as easy as it looks

Put it one way, if we were as reliant on Russian oil and gas as Germany is, I don't think we'd be acting any differently than German is

It is depressing, but its reality I feel

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:27 pm

https://twitter.com/KCL_CGS/status/1536398988412440578

Live discussion going on about German rearmament and the problems that might well raise

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:59 pm

Not strictly Russia, but Japan set to double its defence spending due to worries about China

https://twitter.com/WatsonInstitute/sta ... 0687176704

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