Russia Invades

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Elbarad
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Thu Jun 16, 2022 6:26 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:29 pm
NEXTA: Macron and Scholz, during their visit to Kyiv, said that France, Germany, Italy and Romania are in favor of immediately granting Ukraine status of an EU candidate.

Macron also assured that Europe would not demand territorial concessions from Ukraine to resolve conflict.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... 4tEuSSDvFA
Now if he'd just stop shipping truckloads of white flags to Ukraine as essential military supplies.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:02 pm

KYIV Independent: The four leaders visited Irpin, a Kyiv suburb, where Russian troops committed atrocities.

After returning to Kyiv, Macron, Scholz, Draghi, and Iohannis backed Ukraine’s bid to become an official EU candidate.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 4tEuSSDvFA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:57 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:33 pm
OSINTtechnical: “The Ukrainians are using much better artillery techniques and they’re having a pretty good effect on the Russians. The Russians have lost probably somewhere in the tune of 20 to 30 percent of their armored forces”

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 4tEuSSDvFA
20-30%!!!

That is huge. Although I did think it was in that region; I read at the start of the war they had 6000 tanks and the Kyiv independent daily reports suggest they’ve lost 1450.

What nobody seems to report is where’s the other 75%? Is that better equipment? Or older (if that’s possible)? Does it actually exist? Is it protecting other lands Russia has occupied and therefore can’t be transferred very easily?

There must be a known quantity of equipment they have in Ukraine and I’d love to know how much more the Ukrainians have to go before things start to get very awry for the Russians. If it’s not at that point already? Putin could end up losing 75% of its military within a year at this rate!!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:34 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:57 pm
20-30%!!!

That is huge. Although I did think it was in that region; I read at the start of the war they had 6000 tanks and the Kyiv independent daily reports suggest they’ve lost 1450.

What nobody seems to report is where’s the other 75%? Is that better equipment? Or older (if that’s possible)? Does it actually exist? Is it protecting other lands Russia has occupied and therefore can’t be transferred very easily?

There must be a known quantity of equipment they have in Ukraine and I’d love to know how much more the Ukrainians have to go before things start to get very awry for the Russians. If it’s not at that point already? Putin could end up losing 75% of its military within a year at this rate!!
I think what we are seeing is classic war tactics, combined with modern ware fare. Traditionally the poorest troops were sent forward first… that way failure has little/no moral effect on the remaining troops. We saw that the better Russian troops were engaged, but it seems reasonable that the losses now will not so easily be plugged… and the quality of the Russian army, even if it is maintained strength, will be further diluted as seasoned troops need replacing.

Typically the stalemate will end with either he defender or attacker quickly crumbling once weaknesses are found ad exploited. One thing I cannot understand it Ukraine’s refusal to threaten Russia back, it may well be the Humanitarian stance… but it frees up a lot of Russian troops who would be needed in other strategically important junctures within Russia.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:01 pm

Genuinely don't think that is correct Elwa

Russia are making very slow progress in a very small area of the front, in essentially a triangle between Izyum, Serverdonestk and Popsena

Everywhere else they are just hanging on, certainly not advancing

They attacked with their best troops at first all over the Ukraine, but there combat aims have gone from all Ukraine, to everything on the side of the Dneipr, to encircling the Donbass, to capturing Lukansk and Donestk oblasts, to essentially trying to encircle one insignificant city

That because they are running out of their best troops, and their best equipment, and have to use small, highly trained and motivated units (Spetsnaz, Wagner mercenaries etc) which means small steps

The stuff you see being shipped to the front line now are outdated 1980s equipment, and all the best stuff will be concentrated opposite Severdonestk

They have gone from an army that could take an entire country to one that is trying to take one oblast and city at a time

They can defend (its much easier to defend than attack, and you need a lot less troops and equipment to defend) but I doubt they can attack anywhere else in any strength at all

Ukraine has the same problem that the Russians have, that any attack can't be a blitzkreig because MANPADS and Stuga and helicopters and artillery can cause heavy casulties on the attackers, especially in tanks and APCs

So we have this artillery war, which is why Ukraine wants more and more MRLS and artillery

Course, it will be a very long, very bloody process, but the alternative is Russia (and other countries) not learning that military might shouldn't be used under almost any circumstances

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:06 pm

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 9133967360

Ukrainian Mi-8s with rockets in the East

You can see the terrain here, its as flat as flat can be, nowhere to hide, nowhere to avoid being spotted, nowhere to build up units for an attack without being spotted

Its perfect tank and APC country in theory (see WWII 1941-44 over this terrain) but the improvements in anti-tank weaponry make it almost impossible to advance quickly

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:20 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:01 pm
Genuinely don't think that is correct Elwa

Russia are making very slow progress in a very small area of the front, in essentially a triangle between Izyum, Serverdonestk and Popsena

Everywhere else they are just hanging on, certainly not advancing

They attacked with their best troops at first all over the Ukraine, but there combat aims have gone from all Ukraine, to everything on the side of the Dneipr, to encircling the Donbass, to capturing Lukansk and Donestk oblasts, to essentially trying to encircle one insignificant city

That because they are running out of their best troops, and their best equipment, and have to use small, highly trained and motivated units (Spetsnaz, Wagner mercenaries etc) which means small steps

The stuff you see being shipped to the front line now are outdated 1980s equipment, and all the best stuff will be concentrated opposite Severdonestk

They have gone from an army that could take an entire country to one that is trying to take one oblast and city at a time

They can defend (its much easier to defend than attack, and you need a lot less troops and equipment to defend) but I doubt they can attack anywhere else in any strength at all

Ukraine has the same problem that the Russians have, that any attack can't be a blitzkreig because MANPADS and Stuga and helicopters and artillery can cause heavy casulties on the attackers, especially in tanks and APCs

So we have this artillery war, which is why Ukraine wants more and more MRLS and artillery

Course, it will be a very long, very bloody process, but the alternative is Russia (and other countries) not learning that military might shouldn't be used under almost any circumstances
Sorry Lancs, I saw nothing in your post that contradicts mine. We saw conscript kids in the Russian army early days, when Russia expected Ukraine to roll over. Completely agree also that Russia’s change is of necessity and even make the point the losses per capita now are far more costly to Russia… because of both fewer numbers AND the attrition effects on elite troops especially. Russia’s worst option now is attack… they have to because Putin says so. Ukraine’s worst tactic would also be to attack… they don’t have to.

If Ukraine continues to keep its head and supplies keep arriving they will ultimately win. I certainly wasn’t advocating any breakout into Russia - I hadn’t even considered that viable. Just the option to lob wrong range missiles into Russian infrastructure, or at least the threat to… means people being tied up looking out for it/protecting against it… that can be shuffled forward as no threat exists.

In fairness, I just found out after 51 years, that I’m dyslexic… so it could be my wording/phraseology that causes confusion.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:31 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:06 pm
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 9133967360

Ukrainian Mi-8s with rockets in the East

You can see the terrain here, its as flat as flat can be, nowhere to hide, nowhere to avoid being spotted, nowhere to build up units for an attack without being spotted

Its perfect tank and APC country in theory (see WWII 1941-44 over this terrain) but the improvements in anti-tank weaponry make it almost impossible to advance quickly
What’s actually going on there?

Are those missiles laser guided, or is that chopper just firing randomly? Seems a bit silly to risk the equipment and pilots if they’re not firing anything more sophisticated than a tank/howitzer could launch?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:42 pm

Re: the debate above, when I read figures like 20-30% of their artillery lost, it makes me hopeful that this war might be over soon. I just can’t see Putin wanting a drawn out war with the West over Ukraine that will leave his army so depleted and a laughing stock. That’s quite a risk to Russian security.

Re: hurling a few missiles at Russia, I think they have hit selective targets, haven’t they? I recall an oil depot being hit. At the moment Ukraine have the hearts of the whole world on their side. I wouldn’t ruin that with retaliation. I’m also not sure they can hit Russia on the East now & certainly not with Biden-provided missile systems. If they can really get a grip of them, push them right back, I’d be all up for some extensive shelling towards the end!!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:33 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:42 pm
Re: the debate above, when I read figures like 20-30% of their artillery lost, it makes me hopeful that this war might be over soon. I just can’t see Putin wanting a drawn out war with the West over Ukraine that will leave his army so depleted and a laughing stock. That’s quite a risk to Russian security.

Re: hurling a few missiles at Russia, I think they have hit selective targets, haven’t they? I recall an oil depot being hit. At the moment Ukraine have the hearts of the whole world on their side. I wouldn’t ruin that with retaliation. I’m also not sure they can hit Russia on the East now & certainly not with Biden-provided missile systems. If they can really get a grip of them, push them right back, I’d be all up for some extensive shelling towards the end!!
Don’t think the source of the attack has been admitted by either side; so it could even have been White Russian resistance for all we know for sure; though I may be wrong. Putin is renown for thinking the West is short termist, while he has the long game and staying power. Fortunately, so far at least, despite blips the West seems to be keeping Ukraine support going on the background… more bad news for Putin, he did not legislate for a West that didn’t soon get distracted.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Alanstevensonsgloves » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:38 pm

Only one country to win here is...China

Zero reduction of it's military hardware, whilst all around are handing theirs... thankfully....to the Ukrainians

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:48 pm

Alanstevensonsgloves wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:38 pm
Only one country to win here is...China

Zero reduction of it's military hardware, whilst all around are handing theirs... thankfully....to the Ukrainians
I’m pretty sure the timing could not have been worse for China. Their economy was mopping up on world trade, they had ambitions of their own they’ve had to shelve: to stop what they see as a local dispute being seen in an escalation towards World War. I think China is far from considering its position to be a winning one from this. It may be years before tech interchanges return to pre-war levels… just as China was gearing up to become, everyone’s go to country and with it a much more subtle route to dominance.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:33 am

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:31 pm
What’s actually going on there?

Are those missiles laser guided, or is that chopper just firing randomly? Seems a bit silly to risk the equipment and pilots if they’re not firing anything more sophisticated than a tank/howitzer could launch?
No, they are just being aimed towards the Russian lines, like a kind of flying MRLS system

The reason both sides are doing that are twofold

1) You can never have enough artillery and MRLS systems in a static war like this

2) Using helicopters actually over the front line is a suicide mission with the amount of MANPADS both sides have, especially with Mi-8s which are essentially a utility chopper with some rocket launchers bolted on

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:36 am

Alanstevensonsgloves wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:38 pm
Only one country to win here is...China

Zero reduction of it's military hardware, whilst all around are handing theirs... thankfully....to the Ukrainians
It probably wins if Russia wins, because the West will have failed to protect Ukraine, and that would mean that Taiwan would be toast

It doesn't do badly out of this either way, because Russian oil and gas has to go somewhere, and the logical solution (thought the infrastructure is not in place at all) for that is China and India

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:57 am

Screenshot_20220617-075424_Samsung Internet.jpg
Screenshot_20220617-075424_Samsung Internet.jpg (221.85 KiB) Viewed 3360 times
Sometimes you don't need guns.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:22 am

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537695657439404032

More issues for the Russians trying to reinforce Snake Island

Its an island that clearly neither side can hold, Ukraine because of Russian naval superiority, Russia because its getting to the stage where the amount of stuff being used to try to hold it would much better be used somewhere else, or at the very least, not being used for target practice by the Ukrainians

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:24 am

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:42 pm
Re: the debate above, when I read figures like 20-30% of their artillery lost, it makes me hopeful that this war might be over soon. I just can’t see Putin wanting a drawn out war with the West over Ukraine that will leave his army so depleted and a laughing stock. That’s quite a risk to Russian security.

Re: hurling a few missiles at Russia, I think they have hit selective targets, haven’t they? I recall an oil depot being hit. At the moment Ukraine have the hearts of the whole world on their side. I wouldn’t ruin that with retaliation. I’m also not sure they can hit Russia on the East now & certainly not with Biden-provided missile systems. If they can really get a grip of them, push them right back, I’d be all up for some extensive shelling towards the end!!
It's 20-30% of armour, not artillery. Armour includes tanks, Armoured Personnel Carriers etc.. Tanks can and have been used as artillery but strictly speaking artillery is heavy guns and missiles. They fire at medium to long range targets whereas tanks fire at short range generally. The way the Russians seem to be operating, any sort of artillery will do and I suspect they have a lot of such equipment. How long they takes to wear out (gun barrels have a lifespan) and how much ammunition they have would be interesting to know.

I'm not sure the West would be too keen on their weapons being used to attack Russia itself. We are supposed to be supporting a defensive operation and attacking Russia would escalate things which we don't want. It also doesn't appear the the Ukrainians have the capability to do this. They can't seem to interfere with the logistic support the Russians are getting in the Donbas which you'd think would be a priority.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:51 am

More improvised MRLS systems - this time mounted on a car trailer



https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 2194182145

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Dark Cloud » Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:40 am

As an interested observer who believes Ukraine must prevail here and the bully must under no circumstances be allowed to win, is Russia not in real danger of alienating many of the people they claim to be helping? It's one thing being a Russian "separatist" and aspiring to have closer ties with Moscow, but when the reality turns up and your home, your town, your whole way of life and potentially even your life itself are being totally obliterated surely you start to question what exactly will be left when (and if!) it's ever over. These disputed areas could even be left at some stage with a kind of peace akin to that in Northern Ireland in the 70s and 80s where terror attacks are commonplace, troops are stationed permanently on every street corner and life is far, far from normal in any way. Surely many of these separatist types are now having second thoughts when they realise they will inhabit a wasteland and their standard of life will be wrecked and hopeless.
On another note, have world leaders not actually noticed that whilst Russia has for years "posed" as a massive superpower to be listened to, feared and respected, the reality has now been revealed!? They are a badly equipped, badly organised, baldy led, third world banana republic who could literally be defeated by a bunch of Ukrainian grain farmers if they had the right weapons. Stop listening to Russia, stop talking to Russia, stop taking them seriously, kick them permanently off the G8 and UN security council or whatever else their ridiculously inflated status allows them and rank them alongside countries such as Angola and Tunisia where their status fits. An absolutely typical playground bully it turns out. All mouth and bluster and ultimately absolutely nothing to back it up. Why would we ever be scared or take them seriously again?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:27 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:31 pm
What’s actually going on there?

Are those missiles laser guided, or is that chopper just firing randomly? Seems a bit silly to risk the equipment and pilots if they’re not firing anything more sophisticated than a tank/howitzer could launch?
To be clear. I am not an expert. However.. Two of the sites I use to watch combat footage of this war have both discussed this and the consensus was that this was an accepted practice they were familiar with and was more effective then it looks. Other people in the comments, and myself in my own head, asked that same question and each time someone who *claims* to be knowledgeable says, 'Oh yeah, that works'

But to me it looks like.

Step 1. Fire rockets
Step 2. *shrug*
Step 3. Profit.

Sorry, for the South Park reference. :)

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Re: Russia Invadese

Post by Elbarad » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:56 pm
Doubt it

As long the weapons and ammo keep rolling in he won't care, and quite rightly too

The only thing you can guarantee is that whoever replaces Johnson will do exactly the same thing because its the right thing to do
Can you though? If his government resigns can you be sure the next person won’t just do the opposite of whatever policy’s he had in place. Whether they are good or not? Sadly that’s how I feel the USA works. Regardless of how you feel about either Trump or Biden some of what each president had done or is doing was probably good. Yet when the new party comes into power here it’s all tossed out like bad fish. Both the good and the bad. Stupid. But maybe the UK is different.

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Re: Russia Invadese

Post by JarrowClaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:31 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:28 pm
Can you though? If his government resigns can you be sure the next person won’t just do the opposite of whatever policy’s he had in place. Whether they are good or not? Sadly that’s how I feel the USA works. Regardless of how you feel about either Trump or Biden some of what each president had done or is doing was probably good. Yet when the new party comes into power here it’s all tossed out like bad fish. Both the good and the bad. Stupid. But maybe the UK is different.
To be honest I’m sure that Starmer has said that he will agree pretty much anything that the Government want to send to Ukraine so I think they at least would be similar to the Conservatives.

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Re: Russia Invadese

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:43 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:28 pm
Can you though? If his government resigns can you be sure the next person won’t just do the opposite of whatever policy’s he had in place. Whether they are good or not? Sadly that’s how I feel the USA works. Regardless of how you feel about either Trump or Biden some of what each president had done or is doing was probably good. Yet when the new party comes into power here it’s all tossed out like bad fish. Both the good and the bad. Stupid. But maybe the UK is different.
Yeah, its popular and its the right thing to do

Only problem would be is that there are a lot of people who think like me socially, culturally and economically, but don't think like me in a global context

They aren't in charge though, but they tend to believe the worse of the West and believe that Russia isn't as bad as they are

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:43 pm

https://twitter.com/fpetitAN/status/1537456533189140482

Emmanuel Macron latest

Don't know how the "He wants to give up Ukraine" lot are going to spin this one though

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:51 pm

yTib wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:54 pm
i wonder if zelensky realises (or cares) that quasimodo is using him as a political distraction today.
Boris is pretty much a hero (for a foreigner) in Ukraine. Supported the country with anti-tank weapons etc + military training in the period leading up to the invasion; didnt sell Russia millions of Euros worth of weapons (like Fr & D did (getting round EU regs in the process)); he was the first major western leader to visit Kyiv whilst it was still under attack (thus helping to galvanise further western leader visits), no qualms about sending heavy(ish) weaponry and not placating Russians in any way with suggesting Ukraine cedes territory.
He's doing the right thing on this whether his domestic critics like it or not.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:54 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:51 pm
Boris is pretty much a hero (for a foreigner) in Ukraine. Supported the country with anti-tank weapons etc + military training in the period leading up to the invasion; didnt sell Russia millions of Euros worth of weapons (like Fr & D did (getting round EU regs in the process)); he was the first major western leader to visit Kyiv whilst it was still under attack (thus helping to galvanise further western leader visits), no qualms about sending heavy(ish) weaponry and not placating Russians in any way with suggesting Ukraine cedes territory.
He's doing the right thing on this whether his domestic critics like it or not.
No one is arguing that he's not doing the right thing with Ukraine

Not one

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:57 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:40 am
As an interested observer who believes Ukraine must prevail here and the bully must under no circumstances be allowed to win, is Russia not in real danger of alienating many of the people they claim to be helping? It's one thing being a Russian "separatist" and aspiring to have closer ties with Moscow, but when the reality turns up and your home, your town, your whole way of life and potentially even your life itself are being totally obliterated surely you start to question what exactly will be left when (and if!) it's ever over. These disputed areas could even be left at some stage with a kind of peace akin to that in Northern Ireland in the 70s and 80s where terror attacks are commonplace, troops are stationed permanently on every street corner and life is far, far from normal in any way. Surely many of these separatist types are now having second thoughts when they realise they will inhabit a wasteland and their standard of life will be wrecked and hopeless.
On another note, have world leaders not actually noticed that whilst Russia has for years "posed" as a massive superpower to be listened to, feared and respected, the reality has now been revealed!? They are a badly equipped, badly organised, baldy led, third world banana republic who could literally be defeated by a bunch of Ukrainian grain farmers if they had the right weapons. Stop listening to Russia, stop talking to Russia, stop taking them seriously, kick them permanently off the G8 and UN security council or whatever else their ridiculously inflated status allows them and rank them alongside countries such as Angola and Tunisia where their status fits. An absolutely typical playground bully it turns out. All mouth and bluster and ultimately absolutely nothing to back it up. Why would we ever be scared or take them seriously again?
Because they have nuclear weapons, some of which may actually work.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:07 pm

Screenshot_20220617-220313_Samsung Internet.jpg
Screenshot_20220617-220313_Samsung Internet.jpg (251.53 KiB) Viewed 2654 times
Come on guys, back to the war, we've avoided petty politics for ages.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:46 pm

Phillips OBrien /ISW: The Russian military has concentrated the vast majority of its available combat power to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at the expense of other axes of advance and is suffering heavy casualties to do so.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/statu ... 7Z9hiwzhuw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:58 am

https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/status/ ... bsJQNF-Y3Q

American volunteer in Severodonetsk provides a very grim assessment.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:49 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:58 am
https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/status/ ... bsJQNF-Y3Q

American volunteer in Severodonetsk provides a very grim assessment.

Are we allowed to discuss the assessment made by the American volunteer?

I'm asking purely because I don't wish to jeopardise this thread.

MODERATOR - We can discuss anything as long as comments and reactions remain diplomatic and factual.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:57 am

Reuters: Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports is a war crime - EU's top diplomat

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1538 ... qOTzM81KOw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:58 am

NEXTA: Ukrainian media reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched strikes on SnakeIsland, which is controlled by #Russian occupiers.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... qOTzM81KOw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:02 am

NEXTA: Lithuania's decision to blockade the Kaliningrad region is unprecedented and a violation of absolutely everything", declared Putin's talking head Peskov.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... qOTzM81KOw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:05 am

TsarBomba wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:58 am
https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/status/ ... bsJQNF-Y3Q

American volunteer in Severodonetsk provides a very grim assessment.
My only issue with stuff like that is that there are a lot of fake combat accounts circulating at the moment

But I'm also sure he's correct in a lot of what he says, simply because we are talking about a war that no one has seen in Europe for seventy odd years, and the vast majority of troops on both sides will not be trained to the standard that ex-Western army troops will be

End of the day, we are completely reliant on drone footage, and a lot of nicked telegram accounts (from both sides), and its hard to build up a picture of just what is really going on

The only thing that is clear is that no one is moving anywhere fast, and that is unlikely to change

If I had to hazard a guess, the best trained and motivated troops on both sides are taking heavy casualties, and that will effect the conduct of the war going forward

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:28 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:05 am
My only issue with stuff like that is that there are a lot of fake combat accounts circulating at the moment

But I'm also sure he's correct in a lot of what he says, simply because we are talking about a war that no one has seen in Europe for seventy odd years, and the vast majority of troops on both sides will not be trained to the standard that ex-Western army troops will be

End of the day, we are completely reliant on drone footage, and a lot of nicked telegram accounts (from both sides), and its hard to build up a picture of just what is really going on

The only thing that is clear is that no one is moving anywhere fast, and that is unlikely to change

If I had to hazard a guess, the best trained and motivated troops on both sides are taking heavy casualties, and that will effect the conduct of the war going forward
Quite agree. Fog of War incidents happen in all conflicts. Is it any worse than the ‘friendly fire’ incidents in Iraq? A man on the ground could also have one impression that is based only on his personal experience, not a wider understanding.

The source seems reasonable, but I agree individual testimonies, unintentionally or otherwise can be misleading.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:35 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:28 am
Quite agree. Fog of War incidents happen in all conflicts. Is it any worse than the ‘friendly fire’ incidents in Iraq? A man on the ground could also have one impression that is based only on his personal experience, not a wider understanding.

The source seems reasonable, but I agree individual testimonies, unintentionally or otherwise can be misleading.
Reality is that the Russian "broke through" Ukrainian lines at Popsana a month ago, and have moved the square root of f**k all since

Either the Russians are really crap, or the Ukrainians are pretty good at this defensive lark

I was quite strong on here about the pointlessness of fighting for Severdonestk, but if its bleeding the Russian army dry then (yet again) the Ukrainians have got it spot on
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:30 pm

ROB LEE: Russian T-80BV tanks arriving in Luhansk

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1538 ... qOTzM81KOw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:37 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:35 am
Reality is that the Russian "broke through" Ukrainian lines at Popsana a month ago, and have moved the square root of f**k all since

Either the Russians are really crap, or the Ukrainians are pretty good at this defensive lark

I was quite strong on here about the pointlessness of fighting for Severdonestk, but if its bleeding the Russian army dry then (yet again) the Ukrainians have got it spot on
I think pulling out of Severdonetsk would have given Russia a chance to declare strategic victory, and (they would hope) increase pressure of Ukraine to accept the loss of the territory to accept a new border. It is to be hoped that this is another misreading of the script; I think ANY seeding of territory would create the perfect conditions for Russia to re-arm and then launch on another victim of their expansionist agenda.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:56 pm

ecc wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:49 pm
Are we allowed to discuss the assessment made by the American volunteer?

I'm asking purely because I don't wish to jeopardise this thread.

MODERATOR - We can discuss anything as long as comments and reactions remain diplomatic and factual.
Thank you, Moderator.

I ask because I really don't want to harm this splendid source of information and discussion.

Many thanks to you, all the moderators and Tony.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:14 pm

Re. the account given by the American volunteer.

I will state immediately that I respect all the volunteers who've joined the Internation Legion.

I apologise for not being up to speed on this but I have a question concerning these soldiers:

Have they been integrated into the Ukraninan Army or are they a completely seperate entity? There must be some overlap for linguistic purposes alone.

Thank you in advance.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:59 pm

ecc wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:14 pm
Re. the account given by the American volunteer.

I will state immediately that I respect all the volunteers who've joined the Internation Legion.

I apologise for not being up to speed on this but I have a question concerning these soldiers:

Have they been integrated into the Ukraninan Army or are they a completely seperate entity? There must be some overlap for linguistic purposes alone.

Thank you in advance.
- the answer seems to be both. The international brigades are under Ukrainian overall command, so not completely separate. But vols are also being added to Ukrainian regular units, it appears where communication/language allows, going off the bits of news and the fact Russia loves to use captured foreign nationals for propaganda means they shout from the rooftops when they capture foreigners.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:21 pm

KYIV Independent: General Staff: Ukrainian military repels Russian offensive near Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast.

The invaders failed to break through two settlements, Myrna Dolyna and Bila Hora, located around 20 kilometers south of the strategically important city of Sievierodonetsk.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... UhQv1_TTQA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:35 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:58 am
https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/status/ ... bsJQNF-Y3Q

American volunteer in Severodonetsk provides a very grim assessment.
If true, that is extremely worrying. Especially the bit about a British SAS sniper dying.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:38 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:43 pm
https://twitter.com/fpetitAN/status/1537456533189140482

Emmanuel Macron latest

Don't know how the "He wants to give up Ukraine" lot are going to spin this one though
Very good, well done Emmanuel.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:40 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:38 pm
Very good, well done Emmanuel.
The West is a lot more unified than a lot of people seem prepared to admit

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:49 pm

Don't put up combat footage of the alleged oil rig attack by the Ukrainians btw, the one circulating on the internet is a copy of a 2004 oil rig fire

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:57 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:49 pm
Don't put up combat footage of the alleged oil rig attack by the Ukrainians btw, the one circulating on the internet is a copy of a 2004 oil rig fire
I would be interested in why they hit them though. Is that something they had put SAMs on or radars? Only reason I can think of to risk an oil spill. No idea if one has happened just seems like a reasonable thing to worry about.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by karatekid » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:46 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:58 am
https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/status/ ... bsJQNF-Y3Q

American volunteer in Severodonetsk provides a very grim assessment.
Propaganda? Would the SAS really be any where near? All negative comments from someone fighting as a volunteer on the front line? I expect this guy would have served in the US army if true and wouldn't use the internet to spout this sort of negativity. He would know better, surely.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:58 am

karatekid wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:46 pm
Propaganda? Would the SAS really be any where near? All negative comments from someone fighting as a volunteer on the front line? I expect this guy would have served in the US army if true and wouldn't use the internet to spout this sort of negativity. He would know better, surely.
If you have watched the videos of interviews with James Vasquez, you could easily see that the things he says could be true. They have no secure comms.
When a bit of yellow, blue , green red or white tape is what identifies which side you are fighting on. It’s not hard to see friendly fire happening all the time.

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