Russia Invades

[Clovius Boofus]

Unfortunately, with or without the aid package, I can't foresee UKR being in the ascendancy (like they were last Spring) when sat around the negotiating table at some point in the future.

[TsarBomba]

Sadly they are making progress,although limited in Ukraine. Hopefully more western aid will flood in but Russia have the advantage of population, maybe more mercenaries will join in plus the Russian battalion that is anti Putin is growing.

Ukraine are really, really struggling with manpower and munitions.

[Vegas Claret]

Putin is losing his touch. Currently, the US military aid package is held up in Congress. The death of Alexei Navalny will serve to focus the minds of the waverers.

sadly not likely, there are 3 or 4 Republicans that don't have a moral compass and they are the loudest ones. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it. Anyone that suggests Trump is the answer shows a terminal lack of knowledge

[TsarBomba]

Unfortunately, with or without the aid package, I can't foresee UKR being in the ascendancy (like they were last Spring) when sat around the negotiating table at some point in the future.

Russians already looking at Robotyne and wiping out the gains made there by Ukr last summer. We’ve just got to hope enough aid will have got through by Spring.

[Vegas Claret]

Russians already looking at Robotyne and wiping out the gains made there by Ukr last summer. We’ve just got to hope enough aid will have got through by Spring.

when are they due to get the F16s ? I know the pilots have had months of training now

[TsarBomba]

when are they due to get the F16s ? I know the pilots have had months of training now

I think it’s piecemeal through this year and into next. I couldn’t tell you how many exactly and when. Think some deliveries are delayed too.

[Vegas Claret]

I think it’s piecemeal through this year and into next. I couldn’t tell you how many exactly and when. Think some deliveries are delayed too.

so annoying, it would have made such a difference earlier in the war.

[AlargeClaret]

Russians already looking at Robotyne and wiping out the gains made there by Ukr last summer. We’ve just got to hope enough aid will have got through by Spring.

Was it Robotyne that’s now just literally a flattened waste ground ? It shows the sheer futility on both sides for the soldiers .

[TsarBomba]

Was it Robotyne that’s now just literally a flattened waste ground ? It shows the sheer futility on both sides for the soldiers .

Robotyne is within the line of defensive fortifications in Zaporizhia that Ukraine were trying to break through all last summer.

[AlargeClaret]

That’s the one ! I’d almost completely forgotten that , this was all the RUS minefields and pre prepped lines, WWI esque .

[AfloatinClaret]

...Hopefully more western aid will flood in...

Don't hold your breath over that one; more/earlier aid from the USA might well have tipped the balance already, but the Republicans are only prepared to sanction sufficient aid to keep things 'ticking over'; obviously that'll cost a good few lives, but not Merican ones, only Russian and Ukrainian. The Republicans are now happy to see this war drag on until after the Donald is re-elected and then get it sorted out; they don't want Joe Biden and the Democrats to be seen as the ones to have done that.

[TsarBomba]

Russians attacking on 5 main axis-

Avdiivka
Marinka
Robotyne
Kreminna
Bakhmut

Estimates of 40k Russian troops alone in the Mariupol area, and 110k in Lyman/Kupiansk.

Russia timing their offensives with Ukraine’s manpower/ammunition shortage. Critical.

[TsarBomba]

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1759 ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

As above.

[Shaggy]

You all need to stop listening to western propaganda in the yanks proxy war with Russia.

The sooner Trump gets back into power the better to end this thing once and for all correctly, at the negotiation table.

[AlargeClaret]

You all need to stop listening to western propaganda in the yanks proxy war with Russia.

The sooner Trump gets back into power the better to end this thing once and for all correctly, at the negotiation table.

You’re quite right re: Propaganda, and it’s embarrassing that the West has spouted just as much utter BS as the Russians and Ukraines ( understandable ) . While it’s a part of war I really expected a bit more critical and subjective balance from the main outlets

While not forgetting RUS is 100% the aggressor and de facto enemy , the “laughing off” of RUS as untrained tramps fighting with shovels while stripping washing machines for missile systems was smug, ignorant and and incredibly naive .

[Clovius Boofus]

While not forgetting RUS is 100% the aggressor and de facto enemy , the “laughing off” of RUS as untrained tramps fighting with shovels while stripping washing machines for missile systems was smug, ignorant and and incredibly naive .

I bit like when we were told that sanctions would bring Russia to her knees within a matter of months. We were told the economic pain would be worth the gain. This year - Russian defence spending is up by 68% and their economy is set to grow by 2.6%.

[NewClaret]

I bit like when we were told that sanctions would bring Russia to her knees within a matter of months. We were told the economic pain would be worth the gain. This year - Russian defence spending is up by 68% and their economy is set to grow by 2.6%.

Is that right?

I’ve been reading some things about huge reductions in gas and oil exports which must be hurting them.

Ukraine have certainly caused some big explosions on their energy infrastructure anyway.

[TsarBomba]

I bit like when we were told that sanctions would bring Russia to her knees within a matter of months. We were told the economic pain would be worth the gain. This year - Russian defence spending is up by 68% and their economy is set to grow by 2.6%.

Defensive spending is only increasing because of severe cuts in public spending- not that investment in public services was ever remotely a priority in Russia.

Outside of Moscow, the country is on its knees infrastructure wise, and not a day goes by that Ukraine doesn’t knock out an oil or gas terminal temporarily.

I wouldn’t disagree about the sanctions put in place. They’ve been too weak and contradictory. However, you could argue the sanctions haven’t bitten as hard because Russia is covering the losses with their reserves, and that can’t continue forever.

[HahaYeah]

Gas is almost free in Russia.

[Clovius Boofus]

Is that right?

I’ve been reading some things about huge reductions in gas and oil exports which must be hurting them.

Those figures were given out on C4 News this evening. They also said that Russia has bought 1000+ ageing oil tankers and will earn 186 billion (USD) in revenue this year.

It's on here.

https://www.channel4.com/news/are-sanct ... il-working

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-pilot ... 36601.html
Hmm

[Clovius Boofus]

I wrongly presumed that defectors would have been given new identities and protection, given what has happened in the past.

[Clovius Boofus]

Does anyone else think it's all over for Ukraine? By that, l mean winning back all their territory, including what they lost in 2014.

Even if the US aid goes through, I still don't think it will be enough. Russia is now resurgent and has finally got its act together, just like it always does after military setbacks.

[Dark Cloud]

Does anyone else think it's all over for Ukraine? By that, l mean winning back all their territory, including what they lost in 2014.

Even if the US aid goes through, I still don't think it will be enough. Russia is now resurgent and has finally got its act together, just like it always does after military setbacks.

Well it's certainly not looking good. The wavering amongst some of the western allies and the disgraceful current let down in the US has obviously left UKR hopeless exposed and given the Russians real renewed hope they can prevail and they're definitely piling on. It's really poor that some people pledge support and are "right behind you every step of the way" and yet lose focus and interest when it turns out it's going to be something of a long, hard slog. Russia has been banking on exactly that right from the off and sadly it looks right now as if they're going to be proved right. Allowing an aggressor to get away with what is basically a blatant land grab is wholly wrong, but the lack of people prepared to stay the course is going to allow it to happen and allow Putin to claim his desperately needed victory.

[Clovius Boofus]

Well it's certainly not looking good. The wavering amongst some of the western allies and the disgraceful current let down in the US has obviously left UKR hopeless exposed and given the Russians real renewed hope they can prevail and they're definitely piling on.

I've also noticed that the Western narrative has started to change. In the last couple of weeks, I've seen news reports about the Ukrainian public being war-weary and the TV news has vox popped people in UKR saying it's time to talk peace.

[Rumpelstiltskin]

It’s not possible to negotiate with Russia.Whatever you agree with Russia will be torn up five or ten years down the line and then Russia will carry on with further territorial expansionism.
Nevertheless negotiations may well ‘end’ the war but really its only kicking the can down the road.Ukraine has been betrayed by the west.The policy of giving them just enough to survive but not enough to win was always doomed to eventual failure.

[bfcjg]

I think the NATO countries and those in the Baltic bordering Ukraine need to raise their game even more. A victorious Russia as a next door neighbour is not good.

[ecc]

I've stopped following it regularly - which is morally wrong of me - but from the little I read it would seem Ukraine has very little chance of winning.

The cost of the war for the EU and The States has become a huge burden.

The huge impact of Zelensky travelling to capitals and speaking in Parliaments albeit virtually seems a long time ago now.

[AlargeClaret]

I see the Ruskies have assassinated the pilot that went AWOL in a Mi8 helicopter and defected to Ukraine . While I’ll never condone a cold blooded murder like this , if you defect mid combat in a multi million ££ piece of military hardware , it’s quite likely not gonna end well .

[CoolClaret]

*How British companies are bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine
A depressing thread.
But an important one.*

https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/176034 ... 91241?s=20

TLDR: we can't even do sanctions right.

[ecc]

President Macron hasn't ruled out Western troops to Ukraine. Just what that means and which "Western troops" is unclear.

'Mr Macron announced that a coalition would provide Ukraine with "missiles and bombs of medium and long range to carry out deep strikes". He did not say when such weapons would be delivered.

And he did not rule out sending Western ground troops to Ukraine but acknowledged that differences remained among the allies.

"There was no consensus today to send troops on to the ground in an manner that's official, assumed and endorsed," he said. "But on the dynamic, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything so that Russia cannot win this war." '

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68410219

[Dark Cloud]

Well for all his other failings at least Macron is still talking up supporting Ukraine all the way, so good for him. The way Ukraine are being dropped and let down by many of their so called supporters atm is awful and as a result the war is only going one way sadly. Putin must be chuckling himself to sleep every night because he knew all along the collective will to back UKR would break eventually and well before the Russians lost interest and it was simply a case of how long it would be. Those Americans who are blocking desperately needed aid for reasons entirely unrelated to the war are utterly shameful. (imo)

[AlargeClaret]

While it’s highly disappointing ( though understandable in any proxy contest ) to see a wavering of $$ support for UKR , the ramped up sabre rattling and even consideration of “ putting NATO” troops on the ground in UKR should be concerning to all .
I’m getting a vibe of huge frustration from the west/US about the failure of what NATO have done so far for UKR allied to UKR failure to make any progress especially with the satellite/radar tech at hand .

The almost hysterical rage over the murder ( highly likely ) of Navalny seemed almost stage managed to synchronise a ramp up of aid ,which imo is no bad thing it’s just the “ Russian -esque” propaganda which the west is practicing which can be a bit hard to swallow at times .

[JarrowClaret]

There was a huge disparity between the 2 forces in avdeeka (spelling). By all accounts Ukraine had 1 Brigade holding it whilst the Russians attacked with 7 Brigades. I don’t know the breakdown of Russian and Ukrainian Brigades but that would seem to be a huge difference. I know it was a strategic fortress town so politically it was probably worth taking from a Russian perspective, but it would be interesting to know the losses on both sides to see if it was actually worth it really.

[Elbarad]

It's depressing to see the USA Republicans (of which I am one) dropping the ball so badly, and the President as well. The MAGA folks and their favorite son (of which I am not one) acting like defending Ukraine isn't both our obligation after they gave up their nukes, and in our best interests as NATO is infuriating and short sighted.

Biden has within his power to do much more as well without the Congress, but is happy to do little and pass blame.
Worst in my mind are the weapons and ammo that is literally being decommissioned at large expense that could be much more cheaply simply shipped to Ukraine. Like they'd complain about a rocket that's 99% perfectly fine but has passed a 'best used by' date.

Germany not giving the Taurus. Europe not meeting their artillery shell promises. There's lots of blame to go around. Really shows how unprepared the West as a whole would be if something kicked off.

Still, the Ukrainian's are incredibly resilient, hopefully at some point the losses the Russians are taking just become too much. For all of their successes of late, they've still only moved about most about 20 miles or so and it's a big country, as long as their isn't a collapse.

[GetIntoEm]

i think people waiting for Trump to sort it out are going to be shocked when he pulls all donations to Ukraine. Trump is severely lenient on his stance on Putin.

i imagine he will push for peace agreement, rather than ending the war through support of Ukraine, and about time too.

[CoolClaret]

i think people waiting for Trump to sort it out are going to be shocked when he pulls all donations to Ukraine. Trump is severely lenient on his stance on Putin.

i imagine he will push for peace agreement, rather than ending the war through support of Ukraine, and about time too.

Trump ultimately only gives a crap about himself and parts of his family - and I even gave credit for some of the work he did in the ME.

Democracy and freedom? Nah - he's only bothered about the bottom line $$$

He'd happily oversee the disbandment of NATO, pressure the EU, encourage other countries in the EU to pull out because it may be more beneficial to America (in the short term).

The sitting Republicans rn are an absolute disgrace.

[Shaggy]

Trump ultimately only gives a crap about himself and parts of his family - and I even gave credit for some of the work he did in the ME.

Democracy and freedom? Nah - he's only bothered about the bottom line $$$

He'd happily oversee the disbandment of NATO, pressure the EU, encourage other countries in the EU to pull out because it may be more beneficial to America (in the short term).

The sitting Republicans rn are an absolute disgrace.

The whole thing is an a proxy war with the US anyway. The US economy literally is oil and war.

[CoolClaret]

The whole thing is an a proxy war with the US anyway. The US economy literally is oil and war.

I mean, it's not though energy and defense are big portions of it no doubt.

End of the day if Putin doesn't play empire then there's no war - it really is in America & the West/Europe's best interest to defend democracy.

[TsarBomba]

There was a huge disparity between the 2 forces in avdeeka (spelling). By all accounts Ukraine had 1 Brigade holding it whilst the Russians attacked with 7 Brigades. I don’t know the breakdown of Russian and Ukrainian Brigades but that would seem to be a huge difference. I know it was a strategic fortress town so politically it was probably worth taking from a Russian perspective, but it would be interesting to know the losses on both sides to see if it was actually worth it really.

The front lines in Avdiivka barely moved since 2014. The Ukrainians were able to hold it for so long and so well because they were so entrenched. They had a number of strong points that the Russians just couldn’t overcome, until now, primarily because of the accute Ukrainian shortage in men and munitions.

Just for Avdiivka, I’ve seen Russian casualty figures, from a number of reliable sources, at upwards of 30 thousand.

The frightening thing is that even with these losses, Russia is able to replace them, and their military economy is now kicking out more material than ever before.

There’s no doubt that Russia hold the strategic advantage heading in to spring.

[Taffy on the wing]

India & China are financing Russia by buying massive amounts of below market price oil& gas......they're both happy to see the mighty USA divided & on the losing side.

[TsarBomba]

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1764 ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

In response to their struggles with manpower and ammunition, it would appear the Ukrainians are investing in huge defensive works to hold back the likely Russian spring offensives.

[TsarBomba]

At least 4 gunman have opened fire on civilians at a mall and concert hall in Moscow, which is now completely ablaze.

I won’t post links but it looks horrendous.

The US Embassy has been advising of an imminent attack of some description and to avoid large gatherings.

Not known yet who is responsible, if linked to the Ukraine war or a false flag incident to ramp up the SMO.

[HahaYeah]

I recommend this Youtube channel for anyone interested in Russia.

Sergey is covering this story live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaGZftxLQfc

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/moscow-hits-v ... 42438.html
Russia up to their old trick of targetting infrastructure. The West really need to get backing Ukraine as how this war is going Putin will conquer Ukraine and that puts a lot of European cities well within range.

[TsarBomba]

At least 4 gunman have opened fire on civilians at a mall and concert hall in Moscow, which is now completely ablaze.

I won’t post links but it looks horrendous.

The US Embassy has been advising of an imminent attack of some description and to avoid large gatherings.

Not known yet who is responsible, if linked to the Ukraine war or a false flag incident to ramp up the SMO.

Kyiv being held responsible already.

Meduza news outlet reporting the Moscow Military Commisariat are already sending electronic summonses via SMS.

[elwaclaret]

If Trump gets in and does what he is threatening it is not just Ukraine that needs to worry. All this penny pinching now is only going to end up costing much more.

The trajectory at the moment suggests within the next 5-10 years Russia will roll over Europe.

When they attacked a friend I did nothing to help
When they attacked my brothers I did nothing to help
Now they attack me and there is no-one left to help.

[CoolClaret]

If Trump gets in and does what he is threatening it is not just Ukraine that needs to worry. All this penny pinching now is only going to end up costing much more.

The trajectory at the moment suggests within the next 5-10 years Russia will roll over Europe.

When they attacked a friend I did nothing to help
When they attacked my brothers I did nothing to help
Now they attack me and there is no-one left to help.

The next US election is absolutely massive. Possibly the most important election of this Century.

[ecc]

"Earlier this month, western countries led by the United States had issued terror warnings and told their citizens not to join public gatherings in Russia. On 8 March, the embassy wrote it was “monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.”

The warnings from the Western embassies came shortly after Russia said it had foiled a planned shooting by an Afghan group linked to Islamic State.

Russian authorities had recently carried out a series of raids against armed Islamist militants in the region of Ingushetia, leading to pitched firefights between police and the fighters.

It was unclear if this was the attack referred to in the warning.

Russia has not faced a large terrorist attack on its own territory since 2017, when 14 people were killed in a blast on the Saint Petersburg metro. Suicide bombers killed 34 people in Volgograd in 2013 shortly before the Sochi Olympics. And in 2011, suicide bombers killed 30 people at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport."

(The Guardian)

[bfcjg]

It foes have all the hallmarks of Islamic state terrorism, I joke ordinary Russians realise this and it doesn't escalate the conflict with Ukraine, that said Putin will use any excuse to justify his slaughtering in Ukraine and I wouldn't be surprised if the authorities knew this was coming and let it happen for political reasons,let's face it to Putin Russian blood is nothing to him.