Russia Invades

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:41 pm

If this Russian map is correct, they have learnt it’s not good to get encircled and are just running away.

https://twitter.com/kylejglen/status/15 ... la3LkNwEnA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:44 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:41 pm
If this Russian map is correct, they have learnt it’s not good to get encircled and are just running away.

https://twitter.com/kylejglen/status/15 ... la3LkNwEnA
Rybar is normally spot on

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:46 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:31 pm
It’s no wonder they have low moral and people want to run away when they see how the troops are treated. 193 survived and their wives and girlfriends have to drive to them to bring them some food. All that gets back to Russia even though the powers that be don’t want it too.
They are LNR/DNR troops

They are the ones that in theory should be the most motivated in fighting Ukraine, and they clearly are not

And you have to wonder (as you say) just what do they believe to be willing to be used as cannon fodder for Putin?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:01 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.lbc.co ... how-putin/
Is Putin trying to up the anti ? Is this train a legitimate target even inside Russia?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:14 pm

Interesting take by Peter Zeihan today.

https://youtu.be/i7jpbw6WImQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:18 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:41 pm
If this Russian map is correct, they have learnt it’s not good to get encircled and are just running away.

https://twitter.com/kylejglen/status/15 ... la3LkNwEnA
Hopefully they just keep running and running a long way away.

I’m no military expert but I would imagine that the “front line” is where they put the majority of trained troops and equipment in fortified positions? With the towns and villages beyond holding enough men/equipment to control the population but not necessarily able fighters or in defensive positions?

Presumably once they break through the front line (or in this case threaten to encircle) I’d have thought it quite hard to create a new defensive line? Certainly one capable of holding. If so, it feels very promising!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:20 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:44 pm
Rybar is normally spot on
Loads of statements from sources normally correct, Russia is doing a large tactical retreat, ie running away.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... la3LkNwEnA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:21 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:18 pm
Hopefully they just keep running and running a long way away.

I’m no military expert but I would imagine that the “front line” is where they put the majority of trained troops and equipment in fortified positions? With the towns and villages beyond holding enough men/equipment to control the population but not necessarily able fighters or in defensive positions?

Presumably once they break through the front line (or in this case threaten to encircle) I’d have thought it quite hard to create a new defensive line? Certainly one capable of holding. If so, it feels very promising!
Normally, when there are advances of this speed in a region where the fighting has been fairly static for weeks or months, then you'd assume this is a planned withdrawal to a better defensive position

Its hard to make the case for that in this case, and the long term consequences of fighting at the end of a very tenuous supply line (made a lot worse by Ukrainian tactics) are being felt

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:30 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:18 pm
Hopefully they just keep running and running a long way away.

I’m no military expert but I would imagine that the “front line” is where they put the majority of trained troops and equipment in fortified positions? With the towns and villages beyond holding enough men/equipment to control the population but not necessarily able fighters or in defensive positions?

Presumably once they break through the front line (or in this case threaten to encircle) I’d have thought it quite hard to create a new defensive line? Certainly one capable of holding. If so, it feels very promising!
From everything I have read, those on that side of the water in Kherson are being mainly supplied by the road over the dam and a couple of pontoon bridges that apparently got destroyed with tanks on them yesterday. So the dam is the main supply route. The Ukrainians are rapidly getting towards that dam and once they get that the Russians are screwed. They might get some food across by boat , but munitions and armour, no. They will be like
Y running low on ammo anyway and ifs that’s the case.
Your left with two options.
A very large white flag,
Or run away followed by a very cold swim.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:57 pm

Russian lend lease continues with the donation of a T90 a tank.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/157 ... la3LkNwEnA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:26 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:57 pm
Russian lend lease continues with the donation of a T90 a tank.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/157 ... la3LkNwEnA
He seems happy with his days work! I think I’d have a helmet on if I were him though…

Why are they leaving all this good stuff behind??

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:43 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:26 pm
He seems happy with his days work! I think I’d have a helmet on if I were him though…

Why are they leaving all this good stuff behind??
Not exactly sure to be honest.

Speculation by me.

They have seen what a javelin does to a tank retreating!

Lack of fuel perhaps.

Maybe ran out of munitions.

Seen photos of them retreating in cars which would be faster.

I have seen at least 3 T90 tanks abandoned today or yesterday.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Tribesmen » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:46 pm

It seems things are moving at speed now but my worry is what is Putins next move .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:49 pm

Tribesmen wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:46 pm
It seems things are moving at speed now but my worry is what is Putins next move .
I agree, this is the time we find out if he is bluffing.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:58 pm

The fuel issues must be huge for the Russians leaving so many vehicles behind . An army their size should easily be able to retreat in good order , not the shambolic desperate dash for safety that has ensued . While the UKR is now easily the best equipped army in combat history , the way the Russians have overestimated their ( mainly) dated armour, air and logistics challenges ,yet underestimated the UKR/NATO response almost beggars belief

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:05 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:43 pm
Not exactly sure to be honest.

Speculation by me.

They have seen what a javelin does to a tank retreating!

Lack of fuel perhaps.

Maybe ran out of munitions.

Seen photos of them retreating in cars which would be faster.

I have seen at least 3 T90 tanks abandoned today or yesterday.
Yeah, all good points. Don’t think I’d like to be hit by a javelin or tootling out of somewhere in a massive tank whilst being chased. :? :?

Either way, very kind of them to give up their best tanks to the Ukrainians :lol: :lol:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:11 pm

Most of the equipment abandoned looks in decent condition

An army retreating in good order would destroy the stuff its had to leave behind, but I think I've seen pics of at least 10 T-62M in fully working order in Kherson oblast (limited use as they are old tanks)

And of course, when Russian units retreat, they leave behind ammo and supply dumps, and again, appear to be making little or no effort to destroy them

When the forces you are fighting use exactly the same weapons as you that is a serious problem

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Nonayforever » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:11 pm
Most of the equipment abandoned looks in decent condition

An army retreating in good order would destroy the stuff its had to leave behind, but I think I've seen pics of at least 10 T-62M in fully working order in Kherson oblast (limited use as they are old tanks)

And of course, when Russian units retreat, they leave behind ammo and supply dumps, and again, appear to be making little or no effort to destroy them

When the forces you are fighting use exactly the same weapons as you that is a serious problem
From what I can gather, the current problem for the Russians is the lack of direct leadership.
No coherent orders filtering down through the ranks which leaves a free for all.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:27 pm

Nonayforever wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:16 pm
From what I can gather, the current problem for the Russians is the lack of direct leadership.
No coherent orders filtering down through the ranks which leaves a free for all.
The Telegram posts are all saying that aren't they?

They will be very short of decent officers I'd have thought after the casualties of the past nine months, and any senior officers are very likely to be in posts because of support for Putin or because they have combat experience in Syria/Georgia/Ukraine*

*Good, but completely different experience to what they are facing now

To students of history like me, you are watching in real time the Russians making all the same mistakes they made in WWII, but without appearing to be capable of changing how they do things, and being completely unwilling to adapt to the new reality of the strength of the Ukrainian army

Course, worth mentioning as well that the Ukrainians are taking casualties and losing equipment as well, but clearly not enough to slow down their attacks

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:34 pm

It's nothing new. Here's a story from 1995 in Chechnya.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm ... story.html

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:36 pm

Another town liberated Petropavlivka

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... la3LkNwEnA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by alboclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:31 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:49 pm
I agree, this is the time we find out if he is bluffing.
Is this a big retreat to allow for tacticals ?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:59 pm

alboclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:31 pm
Is this a big retreat to allow for tacticals ?
No, I don’t think so.
They don’t have the comms or the organisation to even do that successfully.

Nuke Kyiv and Lviv, they can do.

But what would be the reaction globally.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:43 pm

If this is true they are nearly at the dam already. They are really are retreating fast.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/ ... G0AB7BflYA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:41 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:43 pm
If this is true they are nearly at the dam already. They are really are retreating fast.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/ ... G0AB7BflYA
Beryslav looked the biggest obstruction, size wise, to the march forward. A lot more infrastructure to hide in.
If it's true that they are closing in on it, then that's insane.There can't have been hardly any fighting at all, just the Ukrainians marching forward, and Russians fleeing.
I'd wait and see if this rumour is confirmed this morning before celebrating, but fingers crossed.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:42 am

Reports this morning that Russia has attacked Kyviv with drones,civilian structures hit as per the norm . Ukraine have done so well not to target innocent Russians with retaliatory strikes.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Aclaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:50 am

alboclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:31 pm
Is this a big retreat to allow for tacticals ?
This is my worry too. All Putin cares about is land grabs and borders, not about the people within them.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dibraidio » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:14 am

alboclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:31 pm
Is this a big retreat to allow for tacticals ?
How can he claim that this land is Russia forever and then nuke it? Does that really make any sense? When Chernobyl happened there were health consequences for people as far away as France. He'd have to wait until Friday otherwise the wind would blow contamination straight back at Russia.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:24 am

A good time lapse map from the last 5 days, reports the town bang in the middle of the map has been taken by Ukraine yesterday or over night, which is a big deal apparently. Snihurivka

https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/stat ... DIY1_ENjIQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:00 pm

This person is claiming Mylove was last taken overnight but this is the only person I have found so far who is saying it.

https://twitter.com/nowakkmichal/status ... DIY1_ENjIQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:03 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-advan ... 17572.html
Update regarding how vulnerable Russias supply lines are after the latent Ukraine push.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vino blanco » Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:38 pm

The 2030 World Cup bid by Spain and Portugal now includes The Ukraine, so they are calling it a European bid. It all helps strengthen Ukraine’s cause.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:03 pm

Anti-drone gun. I didnt know such things existed but saw this video. When I look up this weapon I see "...When disruption is triggered, UAS targets (e.g. drone) will respond via vertical on the spot landing or return to its remote controller or starting point. "
Matte Black or Desert Sand options- nice ;)

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... 4873973760

https://www.droneshield.com/dronegun-tactical

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:46 pm

alboclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:31 pm
Is this a big retreat to allow for tacticals ?
For a sensibly run war anyway, the use of tactical nuclear weapons require that your own troops have protection otherwise they too will suffer like your enemy. The current state of the Russian army means it would be unlikely to be able to equip its troops with suitable gear.

I agree that the Russian war in Ukraine is not being run sensibly but surely even Putin wouldn't risk neutralising his own troops and equipment with such weapons. All it would achieve is making enemies of his friends (I can't believe that China and India would abstain during a condemnation of Russia at the UN Security Council for example) and making Ukraine and its allies even more determined.

https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/spe ... utins.html

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:29 pm

He'd be nuking Russia though as he has signed a piece of paper saying it is Russia. If though he nukes a Ukraine city that opens the door to WW3.
IMHO the West should give Ukraine tactical nuclear weapons now and a map of Russia, see how Putin and his henchmen like it, the people of Russia would rise up at that against Putin.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:53 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:29 pm
He'd be nuking Russia though as he has signed a piece of paper saying it is Russia. If though he nukes a Ukraine city that opens the door to WW3.
IMHO the West should give Ukraine tactical nuclear weapons now and a map of Russia, see how Putin and his henchmen like it, the people of Russia would rise up at that against Putin.
That's definitely not a good idea. Two wrongs don't make a right!

It will only give Putin an excuse to use them and confirm the line he's feeding the Russians that the USA/West is to blame for this war.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:01 pm

The reason he hasn't used them is that he will strongly suspect the West will retaliate in kind,if Ukraine had them hecwould no for certain.
Also NATO guaranteed they would attack Russia if they attacked Ukraine in return for Ukraine not having their own deterrent.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by welsbyswife » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:15 pm

Maybe leave the peace negotiations for others bfcjg :D
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:22 pm

This just came up, British weapons in Ukraine.


https://news.sky.com/story/british-rock ... e-12712600

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:06 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:17 pm

one worry is that they're clearing space and pulling back (retreating/running away) so that there will be minimum damage for them if a tactical nuke is set off somewhere, one or more, to change they tide and make Ukraine come to the table. Tactical nukes are designed exactly for this and used even in your own or disputed territories, I'm hopeful this is not the case and they never get used, it really would be the first time and I dread to think of what the response would be from the West in general, just isolating Russia would not be enough and this is how escalation starts.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by alboclaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:35 pm

KateR wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:17 pm
one worry is that they're clearing space and pulling back (retreating/running away) so that there will be minimum damage for them if a tactical nuke is set off somewhere, one or more, to change they tide and make Ukraine come to the table. Tactical nukes are designed exactly for this and used even in your own or disputed territories, I'm hopeful this is not the case and they never get used, it really would be the first time and I dread to think of what the response would be from the West in general, just isolating Russia would not be enough and this is how escalation starts.
This is what I was getting at.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:38 pm

KateR wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:17 pm
one worry is that they're clearing space and pulling back (retreating/running away) so that there will be minimum damage for them if a tactical nuke is set off somewhere, one or more, to change they tide and make Ukraine come to the table. Tactical nukes are designed exactly for this and used even in your own or disputed territories, I'm hopeful this is not the case and they never get used, it really would be the first time and I dread to think of what the response would be from the West in general, just isolating Russia would not be enough and this is how escalation starts.
I’m personally not worried about tactical nukes. I don’t think Putin would use them. Its such a massive escalation that would not just isolate him from the West but also China most likely. To date they’ve sat on the fence a bit, but they’d be made to chose if nukes start getting dropped.

Those weapons are there as a deterrent and for defence. I know he’s a madman, but even Putin isn’t stupid enough to use them in disputed territory he has only recently taken.

Once he’s played that card, it’s gone. The West will take him out. That’s if they don’t beforehand at the slightest sign he is was planning to strike. I think they’ll know what he had for breakfast and when he took his last dump, so I think they’ll get wind of anything like that. And of course his military May not follow orders.

But to your point, the threat definitely lends itself to continuing the push and staying nice and close to them!!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:20 pm

Best idea these three Russian had in their life.

https://twitter.com/alexbondodua/status ... 17VrV7R29g

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:19 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:22 pm
This just came up, British weapons in Ukraine.


https://news.sky.com/story/british-rock ... e-12712600
That looks like the Vanden Plas version of the rocket launcher, with the stylish wooden trim.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:21 am

bfcjg wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:06 pm
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putin-dueling ... 12351.html
More evidence it's falling apart.
Whilst I'm not aware of any killings, don't our boys like an inter service fight now and then?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:07 am

KateR wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:17 pm
one worry is that they're clearing space and pulling back (retreating/running away) so that there will be minimum damage for them if a tactical nuke is set off somewhere, one or more, to change they tide and make Ukraine come to the table. Tactical nukes are designed exactly for this and used even in your own or disputed territories, I'm hopeful this is not the case and they never get used, it really would be the first time and I dread to think of what the response would be from the West in general, just isolating Russia would not be enough and this is how escalation starts.
Here's a map that claims to show how much and what damage a nuke does.

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I put in my location, a town of around 30,000, and selected a one kiloton bomb (the sort of size a tactical nuclear weapon might be), air burst (which seems more damaging then a ground burst).

The result was that the whole town received light blast damage (12.3km2), around one quarter was in the 'radiation radius' (2km2), there were 3,100 deaths and 6,450 injuries. It doesn't say if these are all radiation injuries but it does add that 15% of those survivors in the radiation radius will die.

Not sure on the effect of wind and therefore the spread of radioactive materials, rather like gas in WW1.

It seems there is not much point in using a very low yield nuclear weapon as it won't do enough damage to justify the possible nuclear retaliation. I would have thought that, in this Ukraine war, the only reason to use them would be to neutralise large numbers of enemy equipment and personnel, or to deny an area to the enemy. It would mean that your own troops could not use that area either unless suitably protected - I mentioned nuclear protection in an earlier post saying it seemed unlikely that the Russians have such equipment or training for their troops in Ukraine.

It seems a rather drastic way to deny the area to the Ukrainians when it could be done with conventional weapons like mines but I suppose desperation and lack of clear thinking which seems to be a feature of the Russians in this war means anything is possible.

welsbyswife
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by welsbyswife » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:12 am

If Vlad genuinely believes Ukraine to be Russian it would be a very strange thing to do. But then they seem to respond to military defeats by blowing up civilian areas anyway so it's clear he really doesn't care about the people or the country. He just wants to redraw lines on a map for his own legacy. The human race is unbelievably stupid at times.

Lowbankclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:21 am

Very interesting thread just popped on Twitter, if this guy has this amount of info and photographic evidence of Russian defensive positions in the Kherson region, so must the Ukrainians and with the mount of precision munitions they have, I would not want to be Russian.

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status ... 2KRtWI73OA

Colburn_Claret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:28 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:21 am
Very interesting thread just popped on Twitter, if this guy has this amount of info and photographic evidence of Russian defensive positions in the Kherson region, so must the Ukrainians and with the mount of precision munitions they have, I would not want to be Russian.

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status ... 2KRtWI73OA
Thankfully AFU now have the artillery to soften these positions up, without throwing bodies at it. How long that will I have no idea, but I'm sure Ukraine are patient.

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