Russia Invades

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Elbarad
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:23 pm

Nori1958 wrote:
Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:42 pm
Peace talks by the end of February
If there are they won’t be fruitful I’d wager. Ukraine isn’t going to give up territory and I don’t think they can put a big enough offensive together before then for Putin to concede.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:47 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:23 pm
If there are they won’t be fruitful I’d wager. Ukraine isn’t going to give up territory and I don’t think they can put a big enough offensive together before then for Putin to concede.
I don’t think he’ll ever concede; reckon he’ll take ill or be overthrown before he does that.

If the video posted about Wagner troops lacking shells in Bakhmut are true, there’s every chance Ukraine are closer to victory in some areas than we might know.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:14 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Dec 27, 2022 12:51 pm

https://twitter.com/R__Politik/status/1 ... 1486642178

This looks like an good analysis of Putins recent media pronouncements

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:46 pm

Some absolutely ridiculous footage of Ukrainian FPV drones attacking Russian IFVs in Donetsk Oblast

https://twitter.com/Sagakino1/status/16 ... 3143081985

I have no idea what an FPV drone is, but its apparently cheap and it looks very, very effective (especially against Russian vehicles that leave their back doors open)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:03 pm

FPV - First Person View.

The BBC asked some knowledgeable individuals to comment on how they saw the war developing in 2023:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63987113

The least wishful thinking and most sensible seems to me to be the third one by Barbara Zanchetta - no end in sight.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:21 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:46 pm
Some absolutely ridiculous footage of Ukrainian FPV drones attacking Russian IFVs in Donetsk Oblast

https://twitter.com/Sagakino1/status/16 ... 3143081985

I have no idea what an FPV drone is, but its apparently cheap and it looks very, very effective (especially against Russian vehicles that leave their back doors open)
First person view.

Like my DJI phantom, you can see in real time what’s going on. DJI phantom has a range of about two miles.

You can see the camera footage on a phone or tablet, take video or photos.


They just strap a grenade to one. Cost £1,200. EBay secondhand they are £400-500.

Lot cheaper than other weapons!
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:04 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:56 am

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:36 pm

Keep an eye on Kreminna

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Dec 29, 2022 9:04 am

https://wartranslated.com/interviewkaraya/

Interview with a Ukrainian fighter pilot (bit propaganda, but still interesting)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:32 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:36 pm
Keep an eye on Kreminna
Read Kreminna had been liberated 4 or 5 days ago. Seems that was a bit premature but looks like they’re doing okay there.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:36 pm

Mass missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure today. Possibly the largest ever. My bet is this is retaliation because Ukraine seem to be doing very well from recent numbers released.

Not all of the missiles were effective though:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndepend ... 3799901184

Makes you wonder how old this gear is.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:40 pm

Ukrainian police shut down a Russian bot farm. Over 100k sims used to verify accounts! Crazy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/intermarium2 ... 3123820545

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:52 pm

Russian air defences allegedly shoot down their own aircraft:

https://mobile.twitter.com/walter_repor ... 8046994434

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Volvoclaret » Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:02 pm

Gone quiet.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:26 pm

Volvoclaret wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:02 pm
Gone quiet.
Not in Ukraine:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ecember-30

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:42 am

Volvoclaret wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:02 pm
Gone quiet.
Not really, just the front line is a hell of a lot shorter now Russia has pulled back behind the Dnipro, so its a lot harder to make the sort of breakthroughs

Still lots going on, but its going to be a war in which supply and logistics are key (even more so than they are now)

Some Ukrainian manufactured 152 mm artillery shells, which will be a welcome boost to their stocks as (I presume) there economy also ratchets up to full wartime production

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 2193177601

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:43 am

Claims from both sides of significant missile strikes:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64142650

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:24 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putin-must-tr ... 25622.html
Nice to think it, however this will never happen.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:16 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... are_btn_tw

Remarkable story of how Sumy (in NE Ukraine) held out while surrounded

Suspect there will be a lot more stories like this, as one thing at the time that was very noticeable was the complete failure of the Russian army to take towns and cities like this which contributed massively to their defeat on the drive to Kyiv

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:06 am

Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights :

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ary-2-2023

Ukraine's Oligarchs:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64075087

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:49 pm

Must have been horrific in those barracks
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/anger-mounts- ... 50821.html

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:10 pm

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 5612389377

M-55S (Slovenian T-55 with NATO 105 mm guns) in service with the Ukrainian army

The original T-55 first became operational in 1955 which is 67 years ago

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed Jan 04, 2023 1:52 am

Russia updated the Himars strike. 89 dead including a LT Colonel, the deputy commander.

They also announced in the same video the destruction of 5 more Himars. That puts their confirmed kills of Himars to something like 52 of the 18 total systems delivered.

Considering their difficulties with the truth I’d guess their numbers of dead is much higher then 89.

I initially thought Ukrainian estimates of 600 casualties had to be inflated. Wow… now I’m not so sure.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:31 am

Elbarad wrote:
Wed Jan 04, 2023 1:52 am
Russia updated the Himars strike. 89 dead including a LT Colonel, the deputy commander.

They also announced in the same video the destruction of 5 more Himars. That puts their confirmed kills of Himars to something like 52 of the 18 total systems delivered.

Considering their difficulties with the truth I’d guess their numbers of dead is much higher then 89.

I initially thought Ukrainian estimates of 600 casualties had to be inflated. Wow… now I’m not so sure.
While the Russians are masters of understatement when it comes to losses , I think they mean the interception /destruction of the actual missiles or the “ ramps” on the systems ? Though I very much stand corrected .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:36 am

They probably have destroyed 52 HIMARS…. Decoys… :lol: :lol:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dibraidio » Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:43 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6YPT9-Olqg
I don't know how reliable a source this is but it seems like the strike on that Russian base for newly arrived mobilised men wasn't an isolated incident, they could have suffered hundreds more losses elsewhere.

There has to be a balance between informing your own people and giving information to the enemy but there really does seem to be a lot of fake news out there but this guy seems to caveat a lot of news and clearly states when it's unconfirmed.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:57 pm

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:57 pm
https://twitter.com/GermanEmbassy/statu ... 2265633807

Pretty impressive from the Germans
Unbelievable effort.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Billy Balfour » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:54 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Sat Dec 24, 2022 12:55 pm
I shall make no further comment on this thread… lets see how long the thread lasts with the conspiracy theories.
This is a shame. I've mainly lurked on this thread, and I miss your contributions. BTW, you were bang on the money regarding conspiracy theories. Not only on this thread, either.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:58 am

Billy Balfour wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:54 am
This is a shame. I've mainly lurked on this thread, and I miss your contributions. BTW, you were bang on the money regarding conspiracy theories. Not only on this thread, either.
Aye, he was on this thread certainly

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:24 am

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-unlea ... 00412.html
More help, makes you wonder if the West had armed Ukraine right at the start if the war would be over now ?
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Thu Jan 05, 2023 1:26 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:40 pm

Bizarre

Russia has called an unilateral ceasefire for 36 hours for the Orthodox New Year

Asks Ukraine to join in

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 0126467072

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dibraidio » Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:53 pm

The big freeze is forecast to start on Saturday. Suddenly an offensive with heavy vehicles will be a real possibility as they won't get bogged down in the mud. No wonder Putin wants a ceasefire to delay the Ukrainians and reorganise their troops without the threat from artillery fire. This would be a fantastic Christmas present for the Russians. I hope the Ukrainians tell him where to stick his Yule log.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BleedingClaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:06 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:40 pm
Bizarre

Russia has called an unilateral ceasefire for 36 hours for the Orthodox New Year

Asks Ukraine to join in

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 0126467072
A comedian in charge of both sides now

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:28 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:54 am
This is a shame. I've mainly lurked on this thread, and I miss your contributions. BTW, you were bang on the money regarding conspiracy theories. Not only on this thread, either.
Thanks Billy. I just wanted to give the poster room to make his case without comment, as several posters seemed receptive. I think I know who the poster was: and I was wrong he is a claret, but he’s a claret that popped up quite a bit in the threads early days… and we know how well the thread was doing then. I believed this thread was worth saving and promised and delivered a moderator who would try to protect it, to get the thread re-opened. Fortunately, I knew the moderator was still casting an eye over things, so it was actually a nice break. I will be back as soon as I get my essay into Uni, towards the end of the month.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:56 pm

It would be madness to trust Putin on anything, regardless of any Orthodox New Year. They've shown a complete lack of compassion with the timing and targeting of their attacks, and he wants Ukraine to respect it.
**** him.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:29 pm

Met up with some friends over the holidays who have family in the forces, appears us Brits are more involved than I thought.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bpgburn » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:00 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:29 pm
Met up with some friends over the holidays who have family in the forces, appears us Brits are more involved than I thought.
Shhhhhhhhh!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:08 pm

bpgburn wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:00 pm
Shhhhhhhhh!
Hopefully suitably vague.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:08 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:56 pm
It would be madness to trust Putin on anything, regardless of any Orthodox New Year. They've shown a complete lack of compassion with the timing and targeting of their attacks, and he wants Ukraine to respect it.
**** him.
I’d have responded by saying that Ukraine would grant his wish of a ceasefire… when he removed his troops from their country! Until then, no ceasefires.

They suffered massive losses again yesterday according to the Ukrainian army. 800+ troops, 2 MLRS, 1 plane, 1 helicopter. Have noticed tank losses massively reducing though. I don’t think they’ve got many left! Time to turn the screw, I think.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:17 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:08 pm
I’d have responded by saying that Ukraine would grant his wish of a ceasefire… when he removed his troops from their country! Until then, no ceasefires.

They suffered massive losses again yesterday according to the Ukrainian army. 800+ troops, 2 MLRS, 1 plane, 1 helicopter. Have noticed tank losses massively reducing though. I don’t think they’ve got many left! Time to turn the screw, I think.
The attrition rate is massive, KA-52 helicopters are 1 away from 50% of what they had at the start of the war.

At this rate in 6 months, the Falklands could invade Russia and take it.

His generals must be bricking it.

Rumours of between 1/2 million to a 2 million mobilisation with be enacted in a few weeks.

That could be a turning point internally within Russia.

You know like oopses, erm where did the 300,000 go to. Obvious conclusion is they are dead or wounded.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by welsbyswife » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:38 pm

I've said it before but such a loss of young men is a huge problem for a country already facing a demographic crisis of an elderly population, outward migration and low birth rate. In the long run this war will only speed up Russia's decline regardless of whether Ukraine is defeated.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:53 pm

welsbyswife wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:38 pm
I've said it before but such a loss of young men is a huge problem for a country already facing a demographic crisis of an elderly population, outward migration and low birth rate. In the long run this war will only speed up Russia's decline regardless of whether Ukraine is defeated.
Yes agreed, I have quoted Zeihan on several occasions, a geopolitical expert who has being Russia was doomed for years in his books.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:09 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:17 pm
The attrition rate is massive, KA-52 helicopters are 1 away from 50% of what they had at the start of the war.

At this rate in 6 months, the Falklands could invade Russia and take it.

His generals must be bricking it.

Rumours of between 1/2 million to a 2 million mobilisation with be enacted in a few weeks.

That could be a turning point internally within Russia.

You know like oopses, erm where did the 300,000 go to. Obvious conclusion is they are dead or wounded.
They struggled to equip the 300,000, I can't see them supplying 2,000,000.
Sooner or later the Russian people will have to acknowledge that they have been fed a crock of **** from the Kremlin.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:25 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:09 pm
They struggled to equip the 300,000, I can't see them supplying 2,000,000.
Sooner or later the Russian people will have to acknowledge that they have been fed a crock of **** from the Kremlin.
I follow Natasha in Russia on Twitter.

I think from her posts it’s sinking in. People asking her how to hide husbands and sons from authorities.

Also agree, they have run out of guns to give soldiers.

However he has said he will spend 30% of gdp to win in 2023 and passed laws that firms have to make what the military order.

If you run an engineering company and get an order for AK47’s, better deliver or stay away from windows.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:56 pm

Germany to send a Patriot battery to Ukraine, and Marder IFV

US to send Bradley IFVs, and both countries will train Ukrainians on the respective systems

Not hard to draw the conclusion here that the West have calculated that Russia is on its last legs, and more modern equipment for the UAF will push them to the absolute brink

Everyone has to remember that Russia GDP isn't capable of dealing with an arms race with the West

It wasn't in the 80s, and it certainly isn't now
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vino blanco » Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:48 pm

Russia's GDP is less than EACH of the GDPs of Texas, California and New York State.

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