Russia Invades

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ClaretLoup
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ClaretLoup » Tue May 17, 2022 12:36 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 9:27 am
Very interesting

Mikhail Khodaryonok writing about the Ukraine situation, 20 days BEFORE the Russian invasion

He was absolutely spot on in pretty much everything

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status ... 6821460993
As ever Kamil summarises succinctly Khodaryonok's prediction in six or seven paragraphs.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 5916641281

The gist of it is that it appears that Soviet media are softening up the Russian public for the bad news
that things have gone t1ts up in the Ukraine otherwise this guy will be out of a window on to a polonium tipped brolly.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by hoskinsgoalatswansea » Tue May 17, 2022 1:04 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 7:28 am
Well, the only thing we have to go on are Russian opinion polls, which are at about 80% in favour

What Russia has managed to do is completely shut down all protests and control the Russian media narrative

I don't think my guess is that far out tbf!
I don’t think you can take anything from polls taken in countries like Russia and China, especially Russia right now. The figures will be greatly skewed by peoples fear of reprisals, and regardless of this they’d just release whatever number they want to anyway. Just look at the last election in Belarus.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Culmclaret » Tue May 17, 2022 1:16 pm

bpgburn wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 10:34 am
I wouldn't put much store in the Russian opinion polls. 83% may be just giving the "correct" answer to the question, pretty sure if people could exercise their true opinion (safely), of Putin and the situation with Ukraine, it would be a lot lower.
The Levada Centre which conducts these polls is described by the Kremlin as an agent of foreign interests. It has used a methodology which is about as good as it can be in gauging opinion within the context of a totalitarian regime. What we need to understand as others have said that the perspective of Russians is very different and is conditioned not only by current propaganda but by centuries of what they would see as humiliation from ‘the west’. Only 24% of Russians have ever been abroad and only 9% have travelled abroad regularly. Only 12% enjoy what would be regarded as a western standard of living. This is not defending Russia, far from it, but without understanding the Russian mentality we are unlikely to find ways to change it. When I visited Russia in 2006 I was staggered by just how many of the people I spoke to supported Putin….and these were English speakers.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 17, 2022 1:20 pm

hoskinsgoalatswansea wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 1:04 pm
I don’t think you can take anything from polls taken in countries like Russia and China, especially Russia right now. The figures will be greatly skewed by peoples fear of reprisals, and regardless of this they’d just release whatever number they want to anyway. Just look at the last election in Belarus.
Yes, but you also can't assume that the people in Russia are seeing things the same way that we are (or that they are able to)

Even with the danger of imprisonment, I would expect to see more demonstrations against the war than we currently are if Putin was in any danger of losing control

Moscow and St Petersburg would be where it starts, though if Russia are really casual about using their citizens from the more rural and less Russified areas, then it might be in places like that

I repeat though, we are a long way from anything like that

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 17, 2022 1:49 pm

Finnish Parliament votes to join NATO

Huge majority for it (188 out of 199)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by RicardoMontalban » Tue May 17, 2022 3:25 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 1:49 pm
Finnish Parliament votes to join NATO

Huge majority for it (188 out of 199)
No doubt it’s an effort to extract some concessions but Turkey aren’t playing along.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue May 17, 2022 3:37 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 8:57 pm
Am I right in remembering that the UK has laws preventing importing of GMO crops? Most of the US farmers plant grain that is 'Roundup Ready' which I believe is GMO.
As I understand it there are restrictions on GM products but no ban, and that includes food we eat and animal feed:

https://www.food.gov.uk/safety-hygiene/ ... fied-foods

The main point for retailers is that consumers don't want GM products and as long as labelling is done as per the rules it's unlikely we will change our mind.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue May 17, 2022 3:49 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 4:40 am
Well… Roundup is a herbicide. Not a pesticide. And it’s sprayed on corn and soy beans before the plants flower so not on the parts anyone eats. But they use genetic editing to make the crops not die from the herbicide. I thought that was the cause of your country’s concern. Not 100% sure. They are your laws not mine that I’m asking about. Heck I’m not even sure if our crops are banned in the UK but I thought they were. Anyway, someone asked about the UK becoming self sufficient in food production and I wondered if you could import the grain from the USA. I believe not, but am asking.
Roundup was the trade name for a herbicide with the active ingredient glyphosate (it seems Roundup is still available but with a different active ingredient). It's known as a 'systemic herbicide' which means it enters the plant through the leaves and travels down to the areas where it does it's deed. Any chemical hitting clay soil was said to be neutralised - it broke down into something safer allegedly. Some plants were discovered that were resistant to glyphosate and once the relevant genes were discovered they were transplanted to Maize etc.. to make them glyphosate resistant. The weeds are therefore killed and the maize grows freely. Clever!

Glyphosate has now generally been banned as in the US there was a settlement where $ millions of damages were awarded to people who claimed they got cancer from glyphosate use:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53174513

I've used, and was certified to use, glyphosate as well as many other pesticides professionally. I didn't like to do it but it was the most practical solution at the time.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue May 17, 2022 3:52 pm

Hipper wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 3:37 pm
As I understand it there are restrictions on GM products but no ban, and that includes food we eat and animal feed:

https://www.food.gov.uk/safety-hygiene/ ... fied-foods

The main point for retailers is that consumers don't want GM products and as long as labelling is done as per the rules it's unlikely we will change our mind.
Thanks for the clarification.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Tue May 17, 2022 4:00 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 4:40 am
Well… Roundup is a herbicide. Not a pesticide. And it’s sprayed on corn and soy beans before the plants flower so not on the parts anyone eats. But they use genetic editing to make the crops not die from the herbicide. I thought that was the cause of your country’s concern. Not 100% sure. They are your laws not mine that I’m asking about. Heck I’m not even sure if our crops are banned in the UK but I thought they were. Anyway, someone asked about the UK becoming self sufficient in food production and I wondered if you could import the grain from the USA. I believe not, but am asking.
You are right it is a herbicide......but the fact is it's extremely toxic to bees, killing 96% of those that come into contact with it.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue May 17, 2022 4:18 pm

Taffy on the wing wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 4:00 pm
You are right it is a herbicide......but the fact is it's extremely toxic to bees, killing 96% of those that come into contact with it.
Where did you get this information?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ClaretLoup » Tue May 17, 2022 4:29 pm

Khodaryonok speaking out with his profound expert understanding of the Russian Military capability is an interesting one.

If there is to be a change at the top and Putin and his cronies are to be ousted it won't be via a General election or any democratic means, they have had their snouts in the trough for so long they have too much to lose to just throw in the towel. In any case the only opposition in the Duma is the CP and the "Liberal Democrats", don't be fooled by the title, they are a bunch of far right crackpots who want to restore the Monarchy and shoot political opponents, they got circa 7% of the vote in the last "election"

What is required is the formation of a "counter elite" to replace the existing coterie and my bet is on the military, for the following reasons. One they are getting battered in the field and have been sent in to fight with crap equipment as the Kleptocrats have siphoned off funds from updating their gear, as well as sending them rookie troops from the outbacks of Russia with low motivation. If the likes of Khodarynonok can analyse the military situation there are certain to be others who came to the same conclusions but were over-ruled by the Politicos and conformity was probably enforced by the FBS ( Russkie Special Branch). Like Hitler, Putin allegedly has started interfering in military matters, bad news for Russia as he is probably clueless about military matters and showing signs of desperation. Added to the fact that a lot of the Military elite ranks ( their comrades) in the field have been bumped off by the Ukies, there may well come a time when they say enough is enough, and start to question the validity and wisdom of the "Special Operation" originated by Putin and his chums.

As always Kalim offers an excellent and thought provoking analysis re the formation of counter elites in Russia including how the present one came to take over. They are mainly KGB operatives schooled in foreign based operations outside of the existing Communist Party Power base. Basically they have no ideology, they are just operators and opportunists. Their cranky views re empire building, flag waving Nationalism and homophobia just happens to play well with the masses, feed their prejudices & allow them to hold on to their swindlings, most of which are stashed away in the west ironically.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... r%5Etweet
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Tue May 17, 2022 4:34 pm

Hipper wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 4:18 pm
Where did you get this information?
https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/ ... 021-04-16/

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue May 17, 2022 4:42 pm

Hipper wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 4:18 pm
Where did you get this information?
Here's a different link.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley ... 2664.13867

How you read it us up to you I guess, but what I read is, if you spray it directly on a bee it mats the hair on their body and suffocates them. Not that it's bad for human consumption if used as directed on plants. Also, this seems to be the home use spray formula for weeds in the cracks of your sidewalk that is the worst for bees. Edit: Regardless I wouldn't spray it into my mouth or all over my body in any event. :D

Anyway, I didn't mean to divert this very important thread with a discussion of herbicides. Can we agree to either start a new thread or let this discussion fall to the wayside?
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Tue May 17, 2022 4:48 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 4:42 pm
Here's a different link.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley ... 2664.13867

How you read it us up to you I guess, but what I read is, if you spray it directly on a bee it mats the hair on their body and suffocates them. Not that it's bad for human consumption if used as directed on plants. Also, this seems to be the home use spray formula for weeds in the cracks of your sidewalk that is the worst for bees. Edit: Regardless I wouldn't spray it into my mouth or all over my body in any event. :D

Anyway, I didn't mean to divert this very important thread with a discussion of herbicides. Can we agree to either start a new thread or let this discussion fall to the wayside?
Consider it ended.......i didn't mean to go off on a tangent in t' first place.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 17, 2022 6:16 pm

Video of the aftermath of that failed crossing of the river by Russian forces

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1526042467354742785

Looks even worse on video

(according to subsequent posts, was a Ukrainian trap and as soon as the troops were across the River, the artillery blew the bridges and the Ukrainians destroyed the rest on their side, while savaging the Russian troops and equipment on the other side

Guessing the Russian Army still being a bit too free with its radio and comms links

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by karatekid » Tue May 17, 2022 9:35 pm

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/15 ... e-61484222

The woman on this Russian TV show is obviously no lover of the British and delusional to boot.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ralph8 » Tue May 17, 2022 9:51 pm

What has made us the No 1 target? Have , what we done something different to the USA and all the other countries backing Ukraine.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ralph8 » Tue May 17, 2022 9:52 pm

we done

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ClaretLoup » Tue May 17, 2022 9:53 pm

The Russkies gave a load of money to Boris and the Conservatives and he’s been one of Ukraine’s key backers, could that be it?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Tue May 17, 2022 10:22 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 9:53 pm
The Russkies gave a load of money to Boris and the Conservatives and he’s been one of Ukraine’s key backers, could that be it?
Very clever move by Boris that, he's not as daft as some believe. Hopefully he took enough money of them to buy a few more of these to send to Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/search?q=brimstone&src=typed_query
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Tue May 17, 2022 10:55 pm

Russian BMPT seen for the first time I think today can’t remember where but imagine wherever it was will turn out to be the Russians main axis. Looks an awesome bit of kit bet it’s a pile of rusty nuts

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue May 17, 2022 11:03 pm

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... n-12615449
Sweden is increasing its military forces. If China falls out with him Putin will be surrounded.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Wed May 18, 2022 9:07 am

ralph8 wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 9:51 pm
What has made us the No 1 target? Have , what we done something different to the USA and all the other countries backing Ukraine.
Imo it's Boris.
I don't want a debate, or spoil this thread, but I admit, for all his faults, I like Boris. One of the reasons I like him, is he isn't a diplomat. He says what he thinks, often without thinking of the consequences, when a saner person could say the same thing, without upsetting people. I'm sure that in speaking his mind to Russia he would upset their regime, far more than the likes of Macron, who just comes across as a Uriah Heap. For that reason alone he would get the brunt of any vitriol coming from the Kremlin.
Good on him. :D sshh ;)
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 9:16 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 9:07 am
Imo it's Boris.
I don't want a debate, or spoil this thread, but I admit, for all his faults, I like Boris. One of the reasons I like him, is he isn't a diplomat. He says what he thinks, often without thinking of the consequences, when a saner person could say the same thing, without upsetting people. I'm sure that in speaking his mind to Russia he would upset their regime, far more than the likes of Macron, who just comes across as a Uriah Heap. For that reason alone he would get the brunt of any vitriol coming from the Kremlin.
Good on him. :D sshh ;)
Some of us figured out you quite liked Boris some time ago mate! ;)
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 12:00 pm

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1 ... 2774297600

Interesting view from a journalist in the Donbass

Russia certainly pushing hard, and has a lot of artillery and troops here, and its having an effect

Of course, that is clearly affecting them elsewhere (ie Khark'iv)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 1:23 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 12:00 pm
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1 ... 2774297600

Interesting view from a journalist in the Donbass

Russia certainly pushing hard, and has a lot of artillery and troops here, and its having an effect

Of course, that is clearly affecting them elsewhere (ie Khark'iv)
The Sky New military analyst, ex forces. He said Two days ago that Russia was building up its forces in the Donbas and Ukraine would very likely start to lose ground due to the large amount of Russian troops in the area, however he did say it’s left them weak in other areas of Ukraine. He was concerned they might be able to push them back quite a way. But we will have to see.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 1:27 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 1:23 pm
The Sky New military analyst, ex forces. He said Two days ago that Russia was building up its forces in the Donbas and Ukraine would very likely start to lose ground due to the large amount of Russian troops in the area, however he did say it’s left them weak in other areas of Ukraine. He was concerned they might be able to push them back quite a way. But we will have to see.
I'd say they want to get to the borders of Luhansk and Donestk oblasts to be able to declare a "victory", and then use the captured Ukrainian territory in the others areas as bargaining chips to try to get a ceasefire

I think they might well capture that, but the idea that somehow stops Ukraine from fighting looks fanciful

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Wed May 18, 2022 1:44 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Wed May 18, 2022 2:34 pm

First Russian soldier pleads guilty for war crimes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61496428

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 2:54 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 1:27 pm
I'd say they want to get to the borders of Luhansk and Donestk oblasts to be able to declare a "victory", and then use the captured Ukrainian territory in the others areas as bargaining chips to try to get a ceasefire

I think they might well capture that, but the idea that somehow stops Ukraine from fighting looks fanciful
I agree, but it was said on TV yesterday, we have sent ALL our NLAW a to tank weapons. No more to give. So things like that might start to have an impact.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 3:49 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 2:54 pm
I agree, but it was said on TV yesterday, we have sent ALL our NLAW a to tank weapons. No more to give. So things like that might start to have an impact.
Essentially the £33 billion lend lease that the US will approve this week solves that I feel

There won't be a shortage of weapons in Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed May 18, 2022 3:59 pm

no chance the west runs out of weapons. The arms companies are jumping for joy at the moment, I would imagine everyone is on double time !

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 4:11 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 3:59 pm
no chance the west runs out of weapons. The arms companies are jumping for joy at the moment, I would imagine everyone is on double time !
I was a manufacturing engineer, I can honestly say going from making around 15 a month to 30 a month is a 12 month project, supply chains cannot double production in a matter of weeks. You might do it for a week or two with overtime but then you run out of medium and long lead time items.

Last project I was on, base aluminium was an 18 month lead time , as an example.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 4:14 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 4:11 pm
I was a manufacturing engineer, I can honestly say going from making around 15 a month to 30 a month is a 12 month project, supply chains cannot double production in a matter of weeks. You might do it for a week or two with overtime but then you run out of medium and long lead time items.

Last project I was on, base aluminium was an 18 month lead time , as an example.
Oh there will be supply chain issues, but its not like they stop making weapons (I think there is one Raytheon system that will have this issue, but I can't remember which one it is)

If there is a market, especially in a depressed economy, then they will make the weapons, and there is definately a market with essentially an unlimited budget

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed May 18, 2022 4:32 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 4:11 pm
I was a manufacturing engineer, I can honestly say going from making around 15 a month to 30 a month is a 12 month project, supply chains cannot double production in a matter of weeks. You might do it for a week or two with overtime but then you run out of medium and long lead time items.

Last project I was on, base aluminium was an 18 month lead time , as an example.
very well may be the case. I doubt very much America has even exhausted it's old supplies yet though

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 18, 2022 4:35 pm

I think it's clear there will be some supply chain issues. Hopefully, they can be overcome quickly. But I'm sure it's not easy. These companies don't have in stock enough parts and materials, nor do they have trained workers to simply run another shift and think that's going to double production. Gearing up will probably take most of the year.

I don't think there's any doubt that the UKR army is using more anti-tank missiles per day than can currently be produced in a day, and that can likely be produced per day at any time in the near future. However, the west can produce more of these missiles per day then Russia can produce Armored vehicles per day. So in time, that should be enough. Of course that means the war drags on with all that it entails.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed May 18, 2022 5:54 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 7:15 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 4:32 pm
very well may be the case. I doubt very much America has even exhausted it's old supplies yet though
I agree with that.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 18, 2022 8:21 pm

NRC wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 7:58 pm
Keynesian economics at its best, weaponry production here in the US, and the GOP don't really understand it. Federal government pours $billions into production, which cascades throughout the supply chain, from raw material to freight. Meanwhile the monetary multiplier kicks in throughout all the local economies as well as stockholder value. And at the same time, the US completely refreshes its weapons stockholding.

But schhhh! Don't tell the GOP this is Big Government at work...
Yep, much rather they put people to work and make something, rather then just handing out another trillion in giveaways and wonder why inflation keeps going up.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 18, 2022 8:51 pm

Here's an interesting but long look at this very question. Obviously I don't know how accurate it is, but I've listened to several of his videos and he seems pretty good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw

elwaclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 9:33 pm


elwaclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 9:41 pm

Russian military expert, back on message…

https://twitter.com/lawdavf/status/1527 ... oMpDx7ZQww

JarrowClaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Wed May 18, 2022 9:44 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 4:14 pm
Oh there will be supply chain issues, but its not like they stop making weapons (I think there is one Raytheon system that will have this issue, but I can't remember which one it is)

If there is a market, especially in a depressed economy, then they will make the weapons, and there is definately a market with essentially an unlimited budget
During Afghanistan and Iraq we used a process called UOR to get replacement vehicles and weapons out to both theatres. This drastically reduced the time it took to get them on the ground. I imagine the Americans did something similar and no doubt we will use something akin to it to replenish stocks someone and shorts/ Thales, Lockheed Martin etc will be frantically wringing there hands together saying excellent like good old monty burns.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed May 18, 2022 10:10 pm

Are there any recent releases of Russian losses? Not seen anything for a while.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 10:44 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 4:35 pm
I think it's clear there will be some supply chain issues. Hopefully, they can be overcome quickly. But I'm sure it's not easy. These companies don't have in stock enough parts and materials, nor do they have trained workers to simply run another shift and think that's going to double production. Gearing up will probably take most of the year.

I don't think there's any doubt that the UKR army is using more anti-tank missiles per day than can currently be produced in a day, and that can likely be produced per day at any time in the near future. However, the west can produce more of these missiles per day then Russia can produce Armored vehicles per day. So in time, that should be enough. Of course that means the war drags on with all that it entails.
There are no secret metal mountains. There is no easy fix to supply chains. My friends who still work in the industry tell me that due to sanctions. RR runs out of Titanium in Sept and Airbus runs out of Aluminium in November.
Not an easy fix when Russia supplied a minor bulk of these materials.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 10:46 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 10:10 pm
Are there any recent releases of Russian losses? Not seen anything for a while.
Here you go

A331BE09-A641-45BB-98E0-A936AA9F72DF.png
A331BE09-A641-45BB-98E0-A936AA9F72DF.png (370.44 KiB) Viewed 1618 times

bfcjg
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed May 18, 2022 10:50 pm

Oh dear.
Screenshot_20220518-222607_Samsung Internet.jpg
Screenshot_20220518-222607_Samsung Internet.jpg (473.51 KiB) Viewed 1642 times

LeadBelly
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Wed May 18, 2022 11:35 pm

This Melitopol incident has been reported in The Express (I think based on a Reuters report) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/16 ... -explosion

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed May 18, 2022 11:53 pm

REUTERS: Russian Google to file for bankruptcy.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1527 ... oMpDx7ZQww

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