Russia Invades

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Dark Cloud
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Dark Cloud » Tue May 10, 2022 10:58 am

I have have to say as a non military type, I thought the vehicles in that column (and others I've seen) were foolishly close together and it didn't look like good practice.
On another note, again as an interested observer, I think in some ways the number of vehicles hit and destroyed in situations such as this whilst being important belies another issue. Ukrainian troops are committed, fighting for what they believe in, fighting for their sovereignty, feel they have no choice but to defend their land from attack and accept that they could well die doing so. Russian troops are far from home, don't want to be there, are not committed to "the cause", don't believe in what they are doing, are probably largely unsure of exactly what they are supposed to be doing anyway and definitely don't want to die doing it if they can in any way avoid it. They are most probably scared to death basically 24/7 and seeing vehicles in your convoy suddenly being hit from nowhere and exploding into flames right ahead of you isn't going to exactly boost your rock bottom morale, even if you escape unscathed. The knock on effect of these sorts of strikes MUST be taking it's toll I'd have thought and can't be underestimated imo.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 11:42 am

NewClaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 10:47 am
Sorry, what do you mean by that?
I mean, that there is clearly long range drone shots of the column being attacked by artillery, and then there is two other distinctive videos, one of a Russian column rolling through a village (looks like through some sort of scope for a anti-tank missile) and then another one front on of a big Russian column that looks like sort of camera

Only a guess like!

But its pretty professionally put together and it clearly shows what the Ukrainians want it to see, ie a Ukrainian Mech Brigade engaging and destroying Russian vehicles

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 11:44 am

Dark Cloud wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 10:58 am
I have have to say as a non military type, I thought the vehicles in that column (and others I've seen) were foolishly close together and it didn't look like good practice.
On another note, again as an interested observer, I think in some ways the number of vehicles hit and destroyed in situations such as this whilst being important belies another issue. Ukrainian troops are committed, fighting for what they believe in, fighting for their sovereignty, feel they have no choice but to defend their land from attack and accept that they could well die doing so. Russian troops are far from home, don't want to be there, are not committed to "the cause", don't believe in what they are doing, are probably largely unsure of exactly what they are supposed to be doing anyway and definitely don't want to die doing it if they can in any way avoid it. They are most probably scared to death basically 24/7 and seeing vehicles in your convoy suddenly being hit from nowhere and exploding into flames right ahead of you isn't going to exactly boost your rock bottom morale, even if you escape unscathed. The knock on effect of these sorts of strikes MUST be taking it's toll I'd have thought and can't be underestimated imo.
Absolutely, the Russians clearly have huge morale and training issues that are not going away

Do you remember that missile strike from ridiculously close range in the first couple of weeks up near K'yiv?

The way the Russian troops reacted showed just how poor their training is, and it does look not to have got a lot better since then

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:04 pm

NEXTA: Ukraine to rename the main road in Kharkiv, formally Moskovsky Avenue; it will become The Avenue of Heroes

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:07 pm

Kyiv Independent - Lithuania formally acknowledges Russian invasion of Ukraine as GENOCIDE and Russia a TERRORIST STATE in a parliamentary vote.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... JlpXH0tJbQ
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:13 pm

ROB LEE - First recorded combat loss of a T-90 Russian Tank

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1523 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:24 pm

REUTERS: WHO report at least 3,000 Ukrainians have now died as a direct result of the invasion preventing them getting treatment for chronic medical conditions.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1523 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:33 pm

ROB LEE: Yuri Butusov bridge destroyed by Ukraine, the abandoned weaponry is Russian

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1523 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:38 pm

REUTERS: Renault still trying to sidestep sanctions by selling plants to local unsanctioned Russian authorities, with a future buy back that itself looks delusional.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1523 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 12:41 pm

REUTERS: Dutch and German foreign ministers in Ukraine for a series of meetings with Ukrainian officials

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 2:27 pm

ROB LEE: Ukrainians showing off more captured Russian armour.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1524 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 2:30 pm

ROB LEE: Footage of strikes on Russian armour shot by the Ukraine 59th Armoured Division.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1524 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Tue May 10, 2022 3:00 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:53 am
Russian estimated losses after 70 odd days. On people lost, I read a thread in the last couple of days where Ukraine’s contact line for Russian people to ring and find info on loved ones was at 32,000 enquiries. So 26,000 could be an under estimate.

Lost tanks is just a crazy number, when you consider the UK has 220 or so tanks.(I think I read)

9E7F7BCA-C210-4898-98E0-A9B6AAFBE637.png
Re the purported tank losses, if reasonably accurate, they are greater than Wehrmacht losses for the entirety of 1943 on the Eastern Front.

Staggering.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 4:30 pm

Royal Navy task force now patrolling the Red Sea

https://twitter.com/timwalker919/status ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 4:32 pm

REUTERS: President Zelenskiy asks for urgency from EU as further sanctions require further talks to pass the council of nations

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1524 ... JlpXH0tJbQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Tue May 10, 2022 4:42 pm

This site has just started tweeting in English, so may also be a useful source of info.

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - Official English page for Ukrainian media outlet “Ukrainska Pravda”

Odesa Region: Russian troops shell bridge over Dniester estuary for fourth time
https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1 ... 39808?s=21

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 8:10 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 3:00 pm
Re the purported tank losses, if reasonably accurate, they are greater than Wehrmacht losses for the entirety of 1943 on the Eastern Front.

Staggering.
So here is a thread from a guy who does analysis on the losses, both claimed and verified. It’s a bit intense but he is thorough. His chart is a bit busy,

https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/ ... IUfJ72mQLQ
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 7:31 am

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop

Been mentioned before, but excellent for trying to keep track of the losses


https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1524228712325160960

Latest assessment + maps

Essentially, Russian troops have made gains in Donestk and Luhansk, but at the cost of their position in Khark'iv on the verge of collapse

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 8:30 am

Just to give people some context of the graph and data I posted last night.
I will use tanks in this instance.
The grey to white bar shows the oryx numbers as a percentage at 52% of committed tanks to the invasion of Ukraine.
The 92% is the Ukrainians claimed amount of tanks destroyed or captured.

The red to blue bar is the losses against the total number of tanks Russia has.

My one comment would be on his data. I think his total committed Tank number of 1226 is very low from what I have read in the past. The numbers I had seen were figures like 1800, if that is the more representative number, it dramatically affects his percentages.
That would change the Ukrainians estimates of Tank losses percentage from 92% to 62%.
The Oryx percentage would change from 52% to 35%

Hope that helps explain the graphs and how each could be affected by his estimates of committed assets.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 9:04 am

A list of what the US has sent Ukraine. I don’t think this includes the new 40 billion of aid that’s just been voted on.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 9:32 am

After reading several reports today, this appears to be the next goal for Ukraine. The goal is to try to take or get very close to Kupiansk. The railway through it is what is keeping the Russian troops in Izyum supplied. They get close enough to stop the trains and the troops in Izyum will run out of supplies. Be interesting to see how that unfolds.
On the second screenshot I have circled it in black. Well I think I have if it works.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 10:24 am

A good thread for those who wish to read.

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status ... gsXUar73uA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 12:23 pm

Two videos, first of ten destroyed or abandoned tanks.
Second of 4 vehicles destroyed. Near Kharkiv apparently.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1496 ... gsXUar73uA

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1496 ... gsXUar73uA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 12:30 pm

The above videos could be from a couple of months ago, just seen a date on them , apologies.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 1:08 pm

Very clear video taken by Chinese press, turret goes probably 50 feet in the air. Poor people inside it.

https://twitter.com/notwoofers/status/1 ... gsXUar73uA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 1:12 pm

REUTERS: UK agrees new close mutual help security co-operation agreement with Finland and Sweden

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... jxOYMS3oWQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 1:15 pm

ROB LEE: Ukraine Stugna strike aftermath

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1524 ... jxOYMS3oWQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 1:20 pm

DAN SNOW: A history of the age old struggle between ships and shore, inspired by Ukraine’s sinking of ‘Putin’s Parade’ ship, Russia’s second major naval loss.

https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/statu ... jxOYMS3oWQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed May 11, 2022 2:21 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:08 pm
Very clear video taken by Chinese press, turret goes probably 50 feet in the air. Poor people inside it.

https://twitter.com/notwoofers/status/1 ... gsXUar73uA
:shock:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed May 11, 2022 2:49 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:20 pm
DAN SNOW: A history of the age old struggle between ships and shore, inspired by Ukraine’s sinking of ‘Putin’s Parade’ ship, Russia’s second major naval loss.

https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/statu ... jxOYMS3oWQ
The German's attempt to get warships through Oslofjord, April 1940:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ79i11JSnU

The computer graphics give a pretty good impression. Blucher was sunk as a result of all this and the ships behind her retreated until the German army had taken the land. Ironically the guns were made by Krupps, the German arms manufacturer.

The King's Choice is a good film if anyone is interested.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by conyoviejo » Wed May 11, 2022 5:10 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:12 pm
REUTERS: UK agrees new close mutual help security co-operation agreement with Finland and Sweden

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... jxOYMS3oWQ
Is that a wise move.? 🤔

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 6:18 pm

Russians tried to cross a river, lots of dead tanks.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 0jDSJgxdHg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 6:21 pm

More pictures and drone footage, holy moly, that’s some serious ass kicking by the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... ZGMe71fGCQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 6:24 pm

Found this funny!!
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Wed May 11, 2022 7:07 pm

Incredible carnage there!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 7:32 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:08 pm
Very clear video taken by Chinese press, turret goes probably 50 feet in the air. Poor people inside it.

https://twitter.com/notwoofers/status/1 ... gsXUar73uA
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 5539393539

Geolocated to well behind Russian lines, only 18 km from the Russian border, and deep in the Donetsk Republic- interesting thread on how this kind of thing is going to become very common, certainly in captured Ukrainian territory

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 11, 2022 8:11 pm

Get the 1st Ukrainian Farmers Brigade in there with their tractors and get that river cleaned up.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 11, 2022 8:15 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 8:11 pm
Get the 1st Ukrainian Farmers Brigade in there with their tractors and get that river cleaned up.
Thats a big chunk of the offensive power of one Russian BTG there

What I would say is that the Russians might well run out of offensive options, but as long as they have loads of artillery and a steady stream of cannon fodder infantry, they are going to be very hard to push out of areas

You'd think the LDR and DDR soldiers in particular would have much higher morale than your average Russian conscript for starters (though I have seen reports of them being very annoyed and fairly dispirited about what is going on)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Wed May 11, 2022 9:01 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 6:18 pm
Russians tried to cross a river, lots of dead tanks.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 0jDSJgxdHg
I previously saw some written descriptions of this action. It suggested that the Ukrainian forces were aware of the pontoon being built, waited until some units (infantry/armour) had crossed and then struck. Obvious huge carnage there and then + whatever personnel/vehicles survived on the "wrong" side of the river will now be hunted down. (Possibly the survivors on the "wrong" side of the river may abandon vehicles/equipment and attempt to get back across the Seversky Donets rather than fight it out - if the low morale of troops we hear about is true).

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 9:16 am

Finlands PM and President (and with 72% support for it) say they must join NATO without delay

Putins strategic miscalculation is so far reaching its getting to the impossible to quantify levels

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Thu May 12, 2022 11:14 am

Warning Graphic Detail

NEXTA -

#CNN showed footage of #Russian occupiers shooting two civilians in the back near #Kyiv:
the owner of a car dealership and a security guard.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... 02112?s=21

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Thu May 12, 2022 11:21 am

jos wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 11:14 am
Warning Graphic Detail

NEXTA -

#CNN showed footage of #Russian occupiers shooting two civilians in the back near #Kyiv:
the owner of a car dealership and a security guard.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... 02112?s=21
And a longer version of events with context…

Doge-

https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/15 ... 05734?s=21

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 12:38 pm

NEXTA: Nike finally sever their partnership with Spartak Moscow

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... LIA-5joA9g

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 2:05 pm

ROB LEE: Tractor boys getting at it again, this time a TOS - 1A Thermobaric transloader

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1524 ... LIA-5joA9g

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 3:43 pm

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu May 12, 2022 4:02 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 2:05 pm
ROB LEE: Tractor boys getting at it again, this time a TOS - 1A Thermobaric transloader

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1524 ... LIA-5joA9g
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 5:09 pm

ROB LEE: Another farmer, this one helped himself to a Russian Howitzer

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1524 ... u-h26SsBzQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 5:19 pm

REUTERS: Pussy Riot group member has escaped Russia and has now given an interview with REUTERS where she insists it is Russia than needs de-Nazification, not Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1524 ... u-h26SsBzQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 12, 2022 8:41 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTQ5ZGHV9Zs

Good BBC Newsnight piece on the war and the challenges and changes to defence that it has brought up

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Thu May 12, 2022 8:56 pm

jos wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 11:14 am
Warning Graphic Detail

NEXTA -

#CNN showed footage of #Russian occupiers shooting two civilians in the back near #Kyiv:
the owner of a car dealership and a security guard.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... 02112?s=21
The BBC now have even more info on these thieving murdering cowards

Ukraine conflict: Russian soldiers seen shooting dead unarmed civilians https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025

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