Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:20 pm

JarrowClaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:17 pm
This is very odd and such strange way to announce the withdrawal.

It smells of either a come on with a trap set somewhere maybe in Kherson City or some sort of agreement has been struck between the US, Russia and Ukraine, it could of course also be genuine and they are fully withdrawing only time will tell. I imagine the Ukrainians will take their time as much as is possible much as they did in Kharkiv until they were past the point of no return.

I would expect the Russians to have mass equipment and personnel losses over the next few days, if not either they have withdrawn the vast majority pre announcement (too organised for them surely) or they struck a deal in my opinion.
Why do you think they have struck a deal Jarrow?

I don't see this as anything other than military reality catching up with the Russian leadership

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:39 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:20 pm
Why do you think they have struck a deal Jarrow?

I don't see this as anything other than military reality catching up with the Russian leadership
I have read about a deal from both Ukrainian and Russian supporters for around a week now, nothing other than that. To be honest I watched the obviously staged we are withdrawing video and put 2 and 2 together but I never said that is what I thought though I just offered it up as an option amongst other things.

As I said it is very odd, I don’t see the leadership caring about there soldiers enough to worry about reality though, they can spin it however they want and the majority will believe them. Let’s see how it plays out I don’t see the Ukrainians running into Kherson City any time soon whatever I suspect they will tread very carefully no need for own goals or giving the Russians what they want if it is a trap.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:43 pm

JarrowClaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:39 pm
I have read about a deal from both Ukrainian and Russian supporters for around a week now, nothing other than that. To be honest I watched the obviously staged we are withdrawing video and put 2 and 2 together but I never said that is what I thought though I just offered it up as an option amongst other things.

As I said it is very odd, I don’t see the leadership caring about there soldiers enough to worry about reality though, they can spin it however they want and the majority will believe them. Let’s see how it plays out I don’t see the Ukrainians running into Kherson City any time soon whatever I suspect they will tread very carefully no need for own goals or giving the Russians what they want if it is a trap.
Fair enough

I just don't see what is in it for Ukraine or the West

This is nothing other than another crushing Russian defeat, and if the Ukrainians aren't exhausted, they really can force Russian units to withdraw with only what they can cross the bridges with, or potentially capture thousands of troops if the bridges and ferries can be destroyed or damaged

Seeing a report on twitter that suggests the town next to Kherson airbase has been liberated

If that is true, then the Russians haven't got any defence lines outside of Kherson proper and any Russian units to the west and north of Kherson are in real trouble

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:48 pm

You can be certain that the invaders will have left behind lots of booby traps/mined areas that will need careful attention.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:50 pm

jos wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:48 pm
You can be certain that the invaders will have left behind lots of booby traps/mined areas that will need careful attention.
Oh, that will be an issue no doubt, but the overwhelming evidence is that when Russia retreats, its troops don't destroy ammo dumps, abandoned vehicles, artillery pieces

That is basic, you are supposed to leave nothing that the enemy can use

Its even worse in this war, because the Ukrainian army already uses the same equipment so can use it straight away

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:45 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:50 pm
Oh, that will be an issue no doubt, but the overwhelming evidence is that when Russia retreats, its troops don't destroy ammo dumps, abandoned vehicles, artillery pieces

That is basic, you are supposed to leave nothing that the enemy can use

Its even worse in this war, because the Ukrainian army already uses the same equipment so can use it straight away
Like this :D
Ukraine Weapons Tracker :-

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... yyjHSmIbIA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:57 pm

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/ ... 8783975424

Russian sources reporting a large number of Russian troops are stuck on the wrong side of the Dnipro

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:02 pm

Bad news everyone, twitter is on the verge of total collapse due to the new owner so updates might be a bit harder to come by!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:02 pm
Bad news everyone, twitter is on the verge of total collapse due to the new owner so updates might be a bit harder to come by!
He (Musk) really is a first class turd!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Jellybean » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:43 pm

From what I've read on Twitter just now it sounds like it's potentially a massacre, literally sink or swim. I feel bad for those abandoned Russians if true but at the end of the day they will be fathers and sons. Just devastatingly sad for everyone, shame on putin.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:30 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:39 pm
I have read about a deal from both Ukrainian and Russian supporters for around a week now, nothing other than that. To be honest I watched the obviously staged we are withdrawing video and put 2 and 2 together but I never said that is what I thought though I just offered it up as an option amongst other things.

As I said it is very odd, I don’t see the leadership caring about there soldiers enough to worry about reality though, they can spin it however they want and the majority will believe them. Let’s see how it plays out I don’t see the Ukrainians running into Kherson City any time soon whatever I suspect they will tread very carefully no need for own goals or giving the Russians what they want if it is a trap.

Wow if what I am reading is true clearly I was talking out of my poop Shute🤣

Looks like a massacre is on the cards I read that some Russian troops hadn’t even been told they were to withdraw before they announced it! Some reports of Ukrainian SF on the outskirts of Kherson itself not sure if I believe them but hey I was seemingly massively wrong earlier about the Ukrainians taking there time.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:32 am

Jellybean wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:43 pm
From what I've read on Twitter just now it sounds like it's potentially a massacre, literally sink or swim. I feel bad for those abandoned Russians if true but at the end of the day they will be fathers and sons. Just devastatingly sad for everyone, shame on putin.
Agreed Jellybean. The leadership of Russia are a bunch of gangsters and there are some very bad elements in their armed forces (as per various torture/murder of non-combatants stories in many of the places they've occupied) but there will be a lot of relatively innocent soldiers getting killed/ maimed today and the next few days. Good that the Ukrainians are being able to get rid of the Russians but cant help but feel some pity for ordinary Russian soldiers- especially the ones who have recently been forced into mobilisation.

The amount of artillery (much of it precise) that is now close to the few available crossing points is going to take a very large toll on Russian life & limb.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Damo » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:07 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:02 pm
Bad news everyone, twitter is on the verge of total collapse due to the new owner so updates might be a bit harder to come by!
Is twitter on the verge of total collapse, or is there a few accounts throwing a bit of a hissy fit because the left wing filter has been turned off?
From what I have seen, it's the latter

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Damo » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:11 am

I wonder if "one side holy, one side evil" will be good for people long term.
The last thing the world needs right now is polarised views, with a handful of people controlling how the majority think

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:36 am

Damo wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:07 am
Is twitter on the verge of total collapse, or is there a few accounts throwing a bit of a hissy fit because the left wing filter has been turned off?
From what I have seen, it's the latter
There's always one!.........

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:34 am

Damo wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:07 am
Is twitter on the verge of total collapse, or is there a few accounts throwing a bit of a hissy fit because the left wing filter has been turned off?
From what I have seen, it's the latter
Sorry mate, its no politics

Tech experts on twitter (enjoy it while you can) are highlighting the issues that the changes in staff and Musks lack of a business plan are doing to the company potentially could be fatal

Oh, and Musk himself (that well known left winger) has said that twitter only has weeks if he can't turn it round

Various links

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status ... 9003556864

https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/ ... 3114195969

And the practical consequence of current plans

https://twitter.com/Stonekettle/status/ ... 3509062656

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:37 am

FAO Mods

I've only posted the above links to highlight the dangers to twitter, which is the primary news source for a lot of us on Ukraine

But if its not acceptable on this thread, feel free to delete

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:43 am

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1590944606757457920

Russians have blown up the rail bridge over the Dnipro near Kherson

Not clear yet if left Russian troops on the wrong side of the river

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:31 am

As a contrast - Inside the capture of a Russian oligarch's superyacht:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-63297797

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:10 am

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1590989488939225089

Well, that looks final (awaiting more confirmation)

Antonovsky bridge blown up last night by the Russians

Any Russians left on the north bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast are now prisoners

Bloody hell

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by welsbyswife » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:24 am

Please can someone explain the logic of abandoning thousands of your own troops on the wrong side of the river? I can't understand why they would do it. And surely it sends a message to all other Russian troops that their leaders really don't care a jot about their lives. Why would you put your life on the line for someone who couldn't care less if you die or not? That must be massively damaging to morale surely?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:27 am

welsbyswife wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:24 am
Please can someone explain the logic of abandoning thousands of your own troops on the wrong side of the river? I can't understand why they would do it. And surely it sends a message to all other Russian troops that their leaders really don't care a jot about their lives. Why would you put your life on the line for someone who couldn't care less if you die or not? That must be massively damaging to morale surely?
Got to make the point that no one is sure who (if anyone) has been left on the wrong side of the river, and that we are still waiting for more pics of the bridge to confirm its gone (but the ones I've seen suggest it has been blown and from multiple angles but it is a relatively easy photo shop job)

I can't see how they would blow the bridge unless they had the vast majority of their troops across, so they either managed a perfect evacuation or the bridge hasn't been blown yet

But if they have blown it, and abandoned a lot of troops, that will be very hard to defend, even with the complete control Russia has of its media

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:30 am

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 6999560192

Bridge is destroyed apparently , but Russian troops walking across the pontoon bridge under it from Kherson to safety

The pics of the bridge there do appear to contradict the pics of the bridge in the first two tweets, but it hard to tell without seeing the full length of the bridge

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:32 am

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/15 ... 1283471360

Okay, the bridge has been blown

Just a matter of time to wait to see how many Russians got left behind (if any)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:32 am
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/15 ... 1283471360

Okay, the bridge has been blown

Just a matter of time to wait to see how many Russians got left behind (if any)
The interesting part of that is that further North the Ukrainians are already across the Dnipro so they don’t need to use this part as a crossing point just makes it easier to defend for the Ukrainians I would think.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:09 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 am
The interesting part of that is that further North the Ukrainians are already across the Dnipro so they don’t need to use this part as a crossing point just makes it easier to defend for the Ukrainians I would think.
There was a lot of chatter about this being the direct result of the damage to the Kerch bridge, and the Russian supply situation being critical

But if you think about it, every time Russia tries something to alleviate its supply situation, Ukraine manages to counter it quite easily

Sinking those Landing ships in Berdyansk, hitting the supply depots, targeting trucks and trains full of supplies, ammo and fuel etc etc

Last six months have seen Russia having to retreat closer and closer to its supply hubs, and the railways east of Donestk and out of the Crimea are now in HIMARS range

You do wonder if they can stop this, even with the much reduced front line this gives Russia (and Ukraine)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:18 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:09 am
There was a lot of chatter about this being the direct result of the damage to the Kerch bridge, and the Russian supply situation being critical

But if you think about it, every time Russia tries something to alleviate its supply situation, Ukraine manages to counter it quite easily

Sinking those Landing ships in Berdyansk, hitting the supply depots, targeting trucks and trains full of supplies, ammo and fuel etc etc

Last six months have seen Russia having to retreat closer and closer to its supply hubs, and the railways east of Donestk and out of the Crimea are now in HIMARS range

You do wonder if they can stop this, even with the much reduced front line this gives Russia (and Ukraine)

An MoD military expert last night was warning not to get too carried away. This is a dangerous situation for Ukraine, and he wouldn’t be surprised to see new lines drawn as Ukraine consolidates its gains through the winter. Although it seems paradoxical he suggests, with every step back Russia takes now it moves closer to where it gets to chose the ground, and start trying to turn the tables as Ukrainian supply lines stretch as Russia’s contracts.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:27 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:18 am
An MoD military expert last night was warning not to get too carried away. This is a dangerous situation for Ukraine, and he wouldn’t be surprised to see new lines drawn as Ukraine consolidates its gains through the winter. Although it seems paradoxical he suggests, with every step back Russia takes now it moves closer to where it gets to chose the ground, and start trying to turn the tables as Ukrainian supply lines stretch as Russia’s contracts.
Oh, there will be a period of consolidation over the winter absolutely no doubt

But the supply situation and storage of supplies doesn't change

The Russians don't have the weapons platforms to hit as accurately as the Ukrainian ones can, and (see the threads on the differences between Western /NATO supply chains and Russian ones) the supply situation only really changes when the Russians get within about 40 km of working large railway lines

And the equipment losses cannot be ignored either - the Russians have lost huge amounts of their best equipment, and the stuff coming on line to replace them is 1980s (or even earlier) tech

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:57 am

CNN reporting that Russian Defence ministry has confirmed that all Russian troops have left Kherson City

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1591021784362541057

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:21 am

Lots of people on twitter who tend to be ahead of the curve saying Kherson City is liberated

Blimey

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:24 am

Seems the Russians have officially completed their retreat and Kherson is back in UKR hands . I’m sure there’s been some coperation for this to happen so fast, which is no bad thing .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:40 am

AlargeClaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:24 am
Seems the Russians have officially completed their retreat and Kherson is back in UKR hands . I’m sure there’s been some coperation for this to happen so fast, which is no bad thing .
You know, I wasn't even remotely thinking that but I'm looking at pics of Ukrainian flags all over Kherson with no sign of the Ukrainian or Russian military anywhere and I am wondering

Guess we will find out soon enough

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:43 am

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... 3485356034

Russian TV host unable to explain what has happened, as (as he explains) he breaks the law whichever way he does it

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:11 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:40 am
You know, I wasn't even remotely thinking that but I'm looking at pics of Ukrainian flags all over Kherson with no sign of the Ukrainian or Russian military anywhere and I am wondering

Guess we will find out soon enough
Perhaps some very unofficial 48hr corridor ? “We’ll feck off pronto if you hold fire “ As you say seems the Russians have definitely left and the UKR are still arriving . Huge gain for the UKR all things said .
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:02 pm

Not sure if this video has been posted, on the bigger picture though is tank warfare finished gainst Western or advanced weapons as they can be picked of with relative ease?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1590841396172189696
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:08 pm

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/ ... 9138685952

Remembering this classic from March as a Russian soldier struggled against heavy resistance from an Ukrainian......door
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:12 pm

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1590794079813926912

Ukrainian Grad battery (I assume) firing

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Aclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:17 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:08 pm
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/ ... 9138685952

Remembering this classic from March as a Russian soldier struggled against heavy resistance from an Ukrainian......door
Indeed a classic.....I wonder what became of the Russian Soldiers trapped in that lift ? Perhaps they are still in there ?
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:22 pm

Putin 'offered surrender terms by West' as he loses control of Kherson https://mol.im/a/11417563 via https://dailym.ai/android

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by summitclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:24 pm

Any deal needs to include the return of any
Ukrainians transported to Russia/Crimea that want to return.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Penwortham_Claret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:26 pm

This is the first time that it has felt like there may be an end to this

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:38 pm

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 5078047744

Well, if Russia are going to get Iranian tech, then don't be surprised if more Israeli tech turns up in the Ukrainian Army

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:42 pm

Penwortham_Claret wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:26 pm
This is the first time that it has felt like there may be an end to this
There was an interesting piece in the Mail about Russia being offered a peace deal that keeps Crimea demilitarized and a return to the pre-war borders (unclear whether that is 2014 borders mind) and there was a report that General Miley (US Joint Chief of Staff and a very switched on guy) is keen on Ukraine negotiating with Russia

But Ukraine doesn't trust Russia (and no one should really) so I'm not sure where that goes

Its possible that for a guarantee of no prosecutions that Russia might agree to a return to pre-war borders but I can't see them accepting Crimea as demilitarized, and I can't see Ukraine accepting anything that doesn't include billions of repatriations

Put it another way, I think this has some way to go, and the only way to guarantee that Russia cannot do this again is force it to the negotiating table with the prospect of a complete defeat, but there will be some middle ground somewhere I'm sure

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by summitclaret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:17 pm

As things are atm, the only exceptable outcome for Ukraine is probably a return to pre 2014 borders. I completely get that but will NATO agree?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Penwortham_Claret » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:33 pm

I think the important part of this suggested deal is that if Russia attack Ukraine again, NATO support them, it literally guarantees them security in the future
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:12 am

Surely Russia couldn't accept Ukraine as a NATO member. That is one of the main reasons they went to war.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:18 am

Hipper wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:12 am
Surely Russia couldn't accept Ukraine as a NATO member. That is one of the main reasons they went to war.
Not going to happen

But if Ukraine is in the EU, then that is an additional level of security, and that might fly with the Russians

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:48 am

What is the feeling amongst you gentlemen that there are some Russians (deliberately) still in Kherson?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:51 am

I’m going to raise my hand. I didn’t think it possible but it looks right now anyway that the Russians did a good job of pulling off the withdraw without it turning into a rout. I won’t expect to see long lines of prisoners like I expected. It remains to be seen how much kit was left behind or destroyed in place.

I am sure they’ve left saboteurs behind to cause problems but both sides have groups of those passing thru the lines already.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:18 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/massive-blast ... 21461.html
They are intent on destroying anything and everything, no regard for human life.

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