Russia Invades

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Culmclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Culmclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:16 am

Have not posted on this thread before but have been very impressed by the detailed knowledge and insights of many posters. That said, at a strategic level it is difficult to see anything other than a Chinese victory. Having Putin tie down the west is massively in their interest and they barely need to have their fingerprints on it. The realignment of geopolitics and the global economy effectively means that the Russians can carry on as long as they have the will, however much of a stalemate it looks to the rational mind. The Chinese play the very long game (Taiwan being the prize) and they are re-orientating their economy away from reliance on western markets.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:21 am

Culmclaret wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:16 am
Have not posted on this thread before but have been very impressed by the detailed knowledge and insights of many posters. That said, at a strategic level it is difficult to see anything other than a Chinese victory. Having Putin tie down the west is massively in their interest and they barely need to have their fingerprints on it. The realignment of geopolitics and the global economy effectively means that the Russians can carry on as long as they have the will, however much of a stalemate it looks to the rational mind. The Chinese play the very long game (Taiwan being the prize) and they are re-orientating their economy away from reliance on western markets.
The US know their rival is China

That is one of the main reasons that they will continue to back Ukraine regardless of who is in the White House

They know they have to do a strategic realignment and they need Europe to be a lot quieter than it is currently

What I would say is that China needs a Navy that can match the USN, and its absolutely miles away from challenging it (plus the RoK and Japanese navies are seriously strong, and getting stronger as well)

But they are close to be able to deny the USN capability to operate off the Chinese coast, and that is all they need

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:08 pm

Lancaster- out of interest, when the Spring comes, where and how do you think Ukraine deploys their Western tanks?

In the south to try and split Crimea from the land bridge with the east?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:16 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:08 pm
Lancaster- out of interest, when the Spring comes, where and how do you think Ukraine deploys their Western tanks?

In the south to try and split Crimea from the land bridge with the east?
Yes

The thing is, it the logical place to do it, so I wonder if they have something else in mind

They won't do anything until the Russians have exhausted themselves against the defences in the easy though

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:25 pm

"easy"?!!?

"East"

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:47 pm

Thing is, in WWII, the offenses around there 1941-44 all tended to go east to west or vice versa

I don't think the terrain aids defence, certainly on a north to south axis and Russian logistics are horribly reliant on one road and one railway line

Based on what is being said, you'd expect the same strategy as last summer, with Russian supply depots being forced further back, and the sheer number of Russian defensive pillboxes and trenches being built between the Sea of Azov and the front line suggest that Russia is expecting to be attacked, and is expecting to lose quite a bit of territory

If Ukraine reaches the Sea of Azov anywhere, and can exploit east and west, then you are looking at Russia being penned into the Crimea

Attacking that is a massive logistical undertaking, and I'm still not sure it will ever be possible for the UA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:57 pm

On this sad anniversary day for global geopolitical issues.
My take on how it’s going to progress from now on.
Couple of points first. Russia has lost over 50% of its tanks, trucks, BMP’s etc.
30% of fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.

The troops it’s started with were rumoured to be around 180-200k, they have lost way more than that now with KIA and WIA.

It dare not fly over territory it’s not controlling as they just get shot down.

Russias army is a very big wounded beast at this time.

Iran supplied drones for a while but that soon stopped, pressure probably came from the US .

Unless China start to provide weapons, my take is they cannot last another year. They were building 200 tanks a year and they lose that each month. For example

With western tanks being sent and the training , plus the weapons continuing to pour in. Ukraine will push the Russians back this year.

I think Russia might just accept keeping Crimea as an out of this.

The best think is the west has just about stopped using Russian gas and oil and by the end of this year I expect it to be down to zero spend.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 1:04 pm

Worth mentioning that you need a certain % of your TOE to be capable of offensive operations, but a much less % of your TOE to be capable of defensive operations

Again, based on what I've read, Russia now has much smaller amounts of units who fit into the first category (and they are being bled in the Donbass) but much more of units that fit into the second category

It is worth mentioning that the only "real" advances in this war have come either as a surprise (the initial attack) or by exploiting a weakness in the line (Izyum) forcing a general withdrawal, and I don't see how the Russians will make that mistake again as they now have a much smaller line to defend and much more troops to do it with

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by frankinwales » Fri Feb 24, 2023 1:48 pm

Thanks Lowbank.

I didn't know that Iran had stopped supplying drones.

Up the Clarets.

Up Ukraine 🇺🇦

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:05 pm

frankinwales wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 1:48 pm
Thanks Lowbank.

I didn't know that Iran had stopped supplying drones.

Up the Clarets.

Up Ukraine 🇺🇦
I think their factory that made them had an accident courtesy of Israel
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Billy Balfour » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:33 pm

Year of war in Ukraine tests China’s ‘no limits’ relationship with Russia

There are signs Beijing wants a quick political resolution to conflict as its patience with Russia wears thin


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... lationship

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:54 pm

Five key moments from the war so far- Sky News.

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1629 ... r-xnpVuhrA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Cirrus_Minor » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:25 pm

After a year with this war, even journalists from the West are now saying that no side can win. The conflict is becoming a meat grinder since Russia will keep on sending cannon fodder like troops to continue Putins' obsession whilst Ukraine will defend and counter-attack with support from NATO. Estimates are for this to potentially remain in dynamic stalemate for the next 5 to 10 years. So whilst this becomes the biggest meat grinder since WW2 we also have the increased likelihood of direct involvement of NATO and all of the terrible consequences that that will ensue.

There really needs to be someone who can broker for peace. But if anyone suggests this then they are accused of being a Putin apologist or appeaser. Not sure if China are independent enough or have real motives for peace but as far as I see it they are the only ones who at least mentioned it. I for one would prefer more focus on this than calling for jet fighters to be sent into the war.

Note, this is not a dig at anyone on here, just a personal viewpoint and certainly not wanting to deflect from some excellent input over the last year on this conflict. Many thanks for that.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:35 pm

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:25 pm
After a year with this war, even journalists from the West are now saying that no side can win. The conflict is becoming a meat grinder since Russia will keep on sending cannon fodder like troops to continue Putins' obsession whilst Ukraine will defend and counter-attack with support from NATO. Estimates are for this to potentially remain in dynamic stalemate for the next 5 to 10 years. So whilst this becomes the biggest meat grinder since WW2 we also have the increased likelihood of direct involvement of NATO and all of the terrible consequences that that will ensue.

There really needs to be someone who can broker for peace. But if anyone suggests this then they are accused of being a Putin apologist or appeaser. Not sure if China are independent enough or have real motives for peace but as far as I see it they are the only ones who at least mentioned it. I for one would prefer more focus on this than calling for jet fighters to be sent into the war.

Note, this is not a dig at anyone on here, just a personal viewpoint and certainly not wanting to deflect from some excellent input over the last year on this conflict. Many thanks for that.
No, you are quite correct

The thing is, a peace deal cannot result in an invasion being successful

I don't see how we get one without that btw, but if it isn't, then all we are doing is then waiting for the next country to be attacked by Russia

You can only hope that a combination of sanctions, Ukrainian successes and diplomatic pressure from China is enough but I have my doubts

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:35 pm
No, you are quite correct

The thing is, a peace deal cannot result in an invasion being successful

I don't see how we get one without that btw, but if it isn't, then all we are doing is then waiting for the next country to be attacked by Russia

You can only hope that a combination of sanctions, Ukrainian successes and diplomatic pressure from China is enough but I have my doubts
Nail on head, Lancaster.

If Russia was to obtain a peace deal, which allows them to hang on to all/some of the annexed territories, it would give green light to every rogue state to invade and set a dangerous precedent.

But it’s a moot point because Ukraine will never agree to such a peace deal anyway.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:03 pm

Essentially, Ukraine has a veto on any peace deal, because you cannot give away the territory of a country AND its the victim of aggression

Whether Russia likes it or not, it has to deal with the fact that substantial Russian speaking minorities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine are actually nothing to do with them

It is very telling that the ones in everywhere (including Ukraine) are not interested in joining Russia in any significant numbers

Unfortunately, due to the war, regions that were majority Ukrainian are no longer that, so it would be completely pointless to have any discussion on the idea of referendums as well

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:05 pm

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1629149748434198528

Be worth seeing if this is actually Ukraine (and not Leopards transferred for training in Germany or Poland) but this tweet (author normally pretty accurate) says its in Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:02 am

Stormer HVM engagement in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... uf30BBxYNw

They have given them the full shabang you can clearly see the ADAD 360 degree picture I am a bit surprised they sent that with them but it is an amazing bit of kit so maybe it made sense. HVM also had the best thermal sight on the battlefield when I was serving anyway.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by claret59 » Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:44 am

It is very difficult t see any way that a negotiated settlement can be reached. Ukraine has had its infrastructure decimated in many areas, Russia is still as intact as it ever was. The death toll although shockingly high is still apparently sustainable by Russia. Amazingly Putin still seems to have widespread support at 'home and abroad' for his crazy protestations that the 'West started this war' and that all Russia is doing is 'ending it' so as to clear out Neo Nazis leadership of the Ukraine. It seems to me that sanctions against Russia are having little effect of their economy which perversely is being sustained by the high price of gas!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Loyalclaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:46 am

On radio 5live yesterday there was an experienced commentator on Russia who believed support for the war had fallen to as low as 25-30%.

He didn't back it up with any source though. Sure the people will be noticing boys not coming home

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:59 am

claret59 wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:44 am
It is very difficult t see any way that a negotiated settlement can be reached. Ukraine has had its infrastructure decimated in many areas, Russia is still as intact as it ever was. The death toll although shockingly high is still apparently sustainable by Russia. Amazingly Putin still seems to have widespread support at 'home and abroad' for his crazy protestations that the 'West started this war' and that all Russia is doing is 'ending it' so as to clear out Neo Nazis leadership of the Ukraine. It seems to me that sanctions against Russia are having little effect of their economy which perversely is being sustained by the high price of gas!
Fighting wars these days is a hi tech business

Russia relies on that tech from the West and Asian countries, all that are backing sanctions

There is a reason they are refitting and renovating T-64s, and a reason they "borrowed" 150 T-72s from Belarus

Sanctions are working

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by box_of_frogs » Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:11 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:02 am
Stormer HVM engagement in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... uf30BBxYNw

They have given them the full shabang you can clearly see the ADAD 360 degree picture I am a bit surprised they sent that with them but it is an amazing bit of kit so maybe it made sense. HVM also had the best thermal sight on the battlefield when I was serving anyway.
Not an expert on the system, but are we sure that was a Starstreak round? Looked more like a traditional missile, rather than the 3 darts?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:18 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:59 am
Fighting wars these days is a hi tech business

Russia relies on that tech from the West and Asian countries, all that are backing sanctions

There is a reason they are refitting and renovating T-64s, and a reason they "borrowed" 150 T-72s from Belarus

Sanctions are working
From images I saw about 6 months ago, I believe the T90 tanks had systems on them manufactured by Thales in France ( I think ) . Obviously they cannot source these things now, hence your point about the T 62’s.

Another thing I learnt on a commentary on a video, the T 62 can only do 4-5 miles an hour in reverse meaning it very vulnerable when facing a modern western tank.
As Ukraine gets modern tanks, they will find it easier to take out Russian tanks with superior targeting systems and accuracy, plus manoeuvrability.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:19 am

Biggest worry currently is China starting to supply weapons to Russia.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:02 pm

box_of_frogs wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:11 am
Not an expert on the system, but are we sure that was a Starstreak round? Looked more like a traditional missile, rather than the 3 darts?
No I don’t think it was starstreak more likely Martlet fired from the stormer HVM platform looking at the engagement. I think they load a number of each over there but it would depend on what their typical target is. There is every chance starstreak would have missed due to dart displacement and the size of the shahad so if they are solely targeting shahad type aircraft then all martlet would make sense for example.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:19 pm

box_of_frogs wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:11 am
Not an expert on the system, but are we sure that was a Starstreak round? Looked more like a traditional missile, rather than the 3 darts?
Just watched the video again and there are definitely parts immediately after the shahad is hit that could possibly be the 2nd and 3rd darts detonating but I still think it was the Martlet missile rather than Starstreak.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:55 pm

Read a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights analysing Russia's Gazprom natural gas production and sales through 2022.

S&P also quote Jack Sharples, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

"Russia's Gazprom, which until recently dominated the European gas market -- reduced supplies to a minimum through 2022, losing most of its market share in the process and triggering a huge gas production decline.

"Gazprom has limited options for diverting gas that used to be piped to Europe to other markets, but that is not to say that it won't try.

"Gazprom's gas production in 2022 totaled just 413 Bcm, more than 100 Bcm less than the 515 Bcm produced in 2021.

"Its monopoly pipeline exports to non-CIS countries amounted to 100.9 Bcm, which included 15.4 Bcm of pipeline supplies to China via the Power of Siberia link.

"That points to exports to Europe and Turkey of around 85 Bcm last year, which included half a year of full Nord Stream deliveries to Europe and the potential for up to 32 Bcm of supplies to Turkey via TurkStream and Blue Stream.

"Gazprom's supply of Russian gas to Europe continues via Ukraine and the second string of TurkStream, but if recent average flow rates are sustained, exports would total only 26 Bcm in 2023.

"The hit has been taken through a massive decline in gas production rather than re-directing," Sharples told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"The only destination for re-directed flows is to their near-neighbors," he said. "But we're talking very limited volumes compared with what they were exporting to Europe."

"In terms of the European market, however, Gazprom has gone from the pinnacle of relevance in the recent past to appearing to be increasingly irrelevant.

"Russia has plans to build new pipelines to supply China with gas -- the 50 Bcm/year Power of Siberia 2 link via Mongolia and the 10 Bcm/year Far Eastern route."


Some stats: Russian natgas production reduced by 20% compared with 2021, 100 Bcm. (We shouldn't forget that 2021 was a covid-19 lockdown year, so production and demand were already lower than pre-covid years).

85 Bcm of exports to Europe and Turkey in 2022, including 6 months when Nord Stream 1 was fully operational (Nord Stream 2, the new pipeline never commenced operation). Both Nord Stream 1 and 2 were blown up in September 2022 (and some NS 1 maintenance closures before then).

If average flow rates are sustained through 2023 total exports (I assume - I find the report a little unclear) to Europe would only be 26 Bcm.

So, 100 Bcm reduction in 2022 and further 59 Bcm reduction forecast for 2023: total reduction, across both 2022 and 2023, 259 Bcm. That's a massive amount of foreign currency to lose.

We should assume that natgas produced and sold by Gazprom in Russia is not sold at export prices - just as Saudia Arabia and most OPEC oil producers don't charge the same price for the oil that is sold within their countries as they can achieve when they sell into global commodity markets.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:07 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:19 am
Biggest worry currently is China starting to supply weapons to Russia.
Doubt they’ll do that. There would be big sanctions that would hurt their economy far more than supporting Russia would ever benefit it.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by box_of_frogs » Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:12 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:07 pm
Doubt they’ll do that. There would be big sanctions that would hurt their economy far more than supporting Russia would ever benefit it.
Depends if they get caught or not.

Let’s say artillery ammo. Make sure it has ‘made in Russia’ sprayed on it. Make sure all the markings and such are in cyrillic’s and not mandarin and you’re half way there. Especially to the casual observer.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:08 am

Loyalclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:46 am
On radio 5live yesterday there was an experienced commentator on Russia who believed support for the war had fallen to as low as 25-30%.

He didn't back it up with any source though. Sure the people will be noticing boys not coming home
Putin has been quite canny about who he sends to the front.

Muscovites have been largely protected, whereas if you’re from some Far Eastern province you’re off to the meat grinder.

There’s already talk of Russia running low on conscripts, so it’ll be interesting to see if this policy is loosened. The pressure will certainly ratchet when the body bags start returning to Moscow.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:11 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:08 am
Putin has been quite canny about who he sends to the front.

Muscovites have been largely protected, whereas if you’re from some Far Eastern province you’re off to the meat grinder.

There’s already talk of Russia running low on conscripts, so it’ll be interesting to see if this policy is loosened. The pressure will certainly ratchet when the body bags start returning to Moscow.
This one of the worst things about the "Russian" psyche. They even treat their own people as second class citizens. There are Russians, and then again, there are Russians. Yet they get away with it.
There are good and bad in every country, including our own, yet to see the lack of interest so many have for other human beings. The sabre rattling, vitriolic crap set out daily on national tv. Are the Russian people really that blind, or are they really that horrible. God I hope it's the former, but if it's the latter, we really need to destroy that thought.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:16 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64793923

All the maps I'm seeing suggest that a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut is just a matter of time

I'm assuming that the idea was to bleed the Russians here, and fix into position a lot of their best combat units, while preparing a counter offensive against some other part of the front (more than likely a thrust towards Berdyansk/Melitopol)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Falcon » Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:15 pm

BBC article on conspiracy theories

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64789737

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Pendle Bella » Tue Feb 28, 2023 3:34 pm

Well worth listening to:

John Mearsheimer | UKRAINE war WILL END IN HORROR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOli2gMr0_c

John Mearsheimer WORLD WAR is on our DOORSTEP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-d4QFysznY

"..John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation..."

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:09 pm

Fp__2pDXgAIeR9c (2).jpg
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:13 pm

pro-Russian protests in Moldava

Internet full of people saying Russia is going to stage a coup

All I'll say to that is that when the Serbs in Kosovo protested by blocking roads and protesting, the internet was full of the same stuff, and the NATO peacekeepers moved in and absolutely nothing happened

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 01, 2023 5:16 pm

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1630962362873266178

Three point EU plan to boost ammo production within the Eurozone "because of the changed security situation"

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:53 pm

Russian revolution against Putin begins.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 4811925505

Or whatever that's supposed to be. No idea who these guys are or what they want, but apparently the crossed the border and raided a couple of villages. Obviously not going to accomplish much. Also, they look much cleaner then I'd expect soldiers to be after a fight. Almost like someone had dropped them off at the post office or something. You can hear gun fire in the back round though.

Weird.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:04 pm

Back to Bakhmut on the verge of falling, but its taken the Russians 7 months to take one city 1/3 of the population size of Lancaster

And while this has been happening, the Russians have been getting absolutely nowhere in Vulhedar and losing irreplaceable AFVs

I can only assume that the Russian plan is to stop the Ukrainian counter attack so that they feel that Ukraine will sue for peace

I guess we will see

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:22 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:53 pm
Russian revolution against Putin begins.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 4811925505

Or whatever that's supposed to be. No idea who these guys are or what they want, but apparently the crossed the border and raided a couple of villages. Obviously not going to accomplish much. Also, they look much cleaner then I'd expect soldiers to be after a fight. Almost like someone had dropped them off at the post office or something. You can hear gun fire in the back round though.


Weird.
It is very strange yes some suggestion it is a false flag thing to strengthen public opinion and maybe justify war declaration. 100% something to watch over the coming days.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:04 pm
Back to Bakhmut on the verge of falling, but its taken the Russians 7 months to take one city 1/3 of the population size of Lancaster

And while this has been happening, the Russians have been getting absolutely nowhere in Vulhedar and losing irreplaceable AFVs

I can only assume that the Russian plan is to stop the Ukrainian counter attack so that they feel that Ukraine will sue for peace

I guess we will see
It’ll be a shame if Bakhmut falls, I’ll miss the mindless headlong Russian attacks into Ukrainian minefields, only to end in abject failure.

And I can’t really see Ukr counter attacking until after Rasputitsa?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:01 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:43 pm
It’ll be a shame if Bakhmut falls, I’ll miss the mindless headlong Russian attacks into Ukrainian minefields, only to end in abject failure.

And I can’t really see Ukr counter attacking until after Rasputitsa?
The Russian attacks are lacking subtlety, which does rather suggest the generals are under a lot of pressure from the Kremlin, and also suggests that they have learnt zero lessons from this war so far (and WWII which is a lot more alarming if you are Russian)

Western intelligence is adamant that Russia is running very low on artillery ammunition, but Ukrainian sources are saying that they are under regular heavy bombardment

Either the Western info is wrong (and they haven't been so far), or that Russia are taking a tremendous risk with their supplies (which they have done before)

I just don't see anything concrete that the Russians get out of this

They can't surely believe that capturing Bakhmut will suddenly change their fortunes?

I mean, the Russian side of twitter is convinced that is some sort of strategic success, but its like Sieverdonestk and Lychansk, its a city whose fall will just open up attacks on other equally well defended cities, and further stretch Russian supply lines

Regarding the Rasputitsa, I'm not sure the Ukrainians will want to give the Russians time to reorganise and rearm, but I guess it depends on just how bad the terrain is (and we know it will be very bad off the road)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:04 pm
Back to Bakhmut on the verge of falling, but its taken the Russians 7 months to take one city 1/3 of the population size of Lancaster

And while this has been happening, the Russians have been getting absolutely nowhere in Vulhedar and losing irreplaceable AFVs

I can only assume that the Russian plan is to stop the Ukrainian counter attack so that they feel that Ukraine will sue for peace

I guess we will see
James Vasquez who I follow on Twitter, was sent to Bakhmut yesterday.
They had a convoy of Toyotas.
Concerned he will not make it.

https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/statu ... NPC_4lrSVQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:38 pm

I’m not quite sure what to make of Vasquez.

Garnered a big following in the early days of the war, before heading back to the US, and returning again.

Was involved recently in a very public spat with other foreign fighters (forget if they were Brit or American), and also accused of siphoning off money from the war effort and basically not doing any fighting, merely posing as if he was.

There were some DM’s released as well which he sent to one of the fighters he had a spat with, and they didn’t portray him in a good light either. Very abusive and threatening.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:51 pm

Dose of realism on Russian State TV tonight.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... ihGc_xNrXg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:10 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:01 pm
The Russian attacks are lacking subtlety, which does rather suggest the generals are under a lot of pressure from the Kremlin, and also suggests that they have learnt zero lessons from this war so far (and WWII which is a lot more alarming if you are Russian)

Western intelligence is adamant that Russia is running very low on artillery ammunition, but Ukrainian sources are saying that they are under regular heavy bombardment

Either the Western info is wrong (and they haven't been so far), or that Russia are taking a tremendous risk with their supplies (which they have done before)

I just don't see anything concrete that the Russians get out of this

They can't surely believe that capturing Bakhmut will suddenly change their fortunes?

I mean, the Russian side of twitter is convinced that is some sort of strategic success, but its like Sieverdonestk and Lychansk, its a city whose fall will just open up attacks on other equally well defended cities, and further stretch Russian supply lines

Regarding the Rasputitsa, I'm not sure the Ukrainians will want to give the Russians time to reorganise and rearm, but I guess it depends on just how bad the terrain is (and we know it will be very bad off the road)
Russia at the very least need control over the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, considering they have annexed them. Which means taking Bakhmut and every other town and village in those oblasts, at any cost.

Strategically, it means squat, but politically it means everything.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:29 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:10 pm
Russia at the very least need control over the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, considering they have annexed them. Which means taking Bakhmut and every other town and village in those oblasts, at any cost.

Strategically, it means squat, but politically it means everything.
But to even do that they have to retake land they lost in the Ukrainian offensive last year

If its taking them seven months to take Bakhmut at the cost of gutting their army, then how on earth are they going to take the rest of Donestk oblast, which is just getting more and more fortified by each month

I get that for a political win they have to control these provinces, but its like they take them and Ukraine suddenly stops fighting?

Mind you, the war makes as little sense now as it did back last year so who knows what the Russians are thinking or even trying to do at this stage

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:35 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:10 pm
Russia at the very least need control over the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, considering they have annexed them. Which means taking Bakhmut and every other town and village in those oblasts, at any cost.

Strategically, it means squat, but politically it means everything.
From what Zelensky said the other day, one of the reasons they’re struggling to hold it is that the Russians are flattening everything that is providing them cover.

My hope would be that they retreat slowly as it’s being destroyed, building forces elsewhere, let them pile in and leave them sitting ducks trying to defend a town with no cover.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:36 pm

TsarBomba wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:51 pm
Dose of realism on Russian State TV tonight.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... ihGc_xNrXg
Yes, but not really

When you listen to what he is saying, its a call for unity and sacrifice, to make more demands on the Russian people, to essentially militarise the whole nation

It won't make any difference

The GDP and manufacturing capacity of the Nordics, Poland and the Czechs is as big as Russia's, and that doesn't include UK, US, Canada, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan etc

Throw sanctions into the mix as well and you looking at USSR producing more and more 1970s era equipment in 2023

And the Russians don't have inexhaustible supplies of men either

We need more realism than this sadly

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Pendle Bella » Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:26 pm

Douglas Macgregor: Ukraine Will Be Destroyed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXj87urVnUo

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