Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu May 05, 2022 4:03 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 12:37 pm
Agree to disagree.
I don't doubt it won't be easy, but it's a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the younger generations. They've enjoyed all the modern technology FB, Twitter,etc. They've tasted life as the West does, it's benefits, as well as its downside. As the elderly die off, the support for Putins style of communism will too. You can't kow tow that generation.
All it takes is for somebody in power, to see the direction the tide is going, and jump on board with it.
I don't envisage the end of Communism , but I can't see the next 'leader' getting away with what Putin has done. They can't be blind to the dangers that lies in one man having all the authority. There has to be a checks and balance, only in Moscow today it's gone out the window.
Communism in its proper sense ended years ago.

Putin was 48 when he became President.

Edit - I removed the rest as it's not really what this thread is about - the Russia - Ukraine war.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Thu May 05, 2022 5:19 pm

I should imagine the Russian authorities will be out en masse on the 9th to prevent any disruption or a sniper taking a shot at Putin.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 7:15 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 5:19 pm
I should imagine the Russian authorities will be out en masse on the 9th to prevent any disruption or a sniper taking a shot at Putin.
They’ll have to find some. Most are busy keeping protestors off the streets, those that have not been sent to bulk up the army in Ukraine, that is.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 7:16 pm

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/statu ... 2353177600

Sanctions on Russia will not be lifted without Ukraines consent - Chancellor Scholz

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 10:39 pm

REUTERS: Germany will co-operate to allow countries without ports access LNG

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1522 ... HGyZabcVog

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 10:45 pm

OSINTtechnical: Aftermath of chaotic fighting around Kharkiv

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... HGyZabcVog

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 10:52 pm

NEXTA: EU file of human gross rights abuses increases daily in Ukraine, and over 180 kidnapings

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... HGyZabcVog

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 10:58 pm

MSN, Phillips-OBrien retweet:
Volunteers from allied nations are deserting and returning home because “they deceived us at every step” and Russia’s war is a shambles.

https://twitter.com/arvershbow/status/1 ... HGyZabcVog

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 10:03 am

Attention this morning is firmly on Belarus as Kidnapped NEXTA journalists (travelling on Ryanair) are sentenced to imprisonment, Russian invasion combat troops patrol the streets and a series of anti-protest raids lead to mass opposition of the populace and the Church.

Riots and Resistance: https://twitter.com/riotsresistance/sta ... FQRtKOeP3g

HANNA LUBAKOVA:https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

And…. https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

Sergei Sumlenny: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/130 ... FQRtKOeP3g

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 10:05 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 10:50 am

One of those unconfirmed reports again I'm afraid, but this account are reporting that a Russian frigate is on fire and a rescue operation is underway

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/15 ... 5750146048
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Fri May 06, 2022 12:21 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 10:50 am
One of those unconfirmed reports again I'm afraid, but this account are reporting that a Russian frigate is on fire and a rescue operation is underway

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/15 ... 5750146048
The Mirror has a far-off photo of what is claimed to be this Admiral Makarov frigate. From reports it seem to be off the coast of Romania/Moldova and quite a way from Odessa. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... p-26889015

Coincidentally enough, Forbes had a very recent article saying that this was the most vulnerable target of Russia's (remaining) Black Sea fleet. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 17b9d674d5

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Fri May 06, 2022 1:49 pm

Quite a few links to this Russian frigate loss now.

https://twitter.com/alexkhrebet/status/ ... 87936?s=21

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 1:54 pm

jos wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 1:49 pm
Quite a few links to this Russian frigate loss now.

https://twitter.com/alexkhrebet/status/ ... 87936?s=21
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 4182134791

Satellite imagery of the area suggests otherwise (unless its sunk and the rescue boats and helicopters have left the area (not likely)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Fri May 06, 2022 2:12 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 10:03 am
Attention this morning is firmly on Belarus as Kidnapped NEXTA journalists (travelling on Ryanair) are sentenced to imprisonment, Russian invasion combat troops patrol the streets and a series of anti-protest raids lead to mass opposition of the populace and the Church.

Riots and Resistance: https://twitter.com/riotsresistance/sta ... FQRtKOeP3g

HANNA LUBAKOVA:https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

And…. https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

Sergei Sumlenny: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/130 ... FQRtKOeP3g
and I'll repeat, the response from NATO isn't strong enough. These actions will spread like wildfire

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 2:12 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 12:37 pm
Agree to disagree.
I don't doubt it won't be easy, but it's a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the younger generations. They've enjoyed all the modern technology FB, Twitter,etc. They've tasted life as the West does, it's benefits, as well as its downside. As the elderly die off, the support for Putins style of communism will too. You can't kow tow that generation.
All it takes is for somebody in power, to see the direction the tide is going, and jump on board with it.
I don't envisage the end of Communism , but I can't see the next 'leader' getting away with what Putin has done. They can't be blind to the dangers that lies in one man having all the authority. There has to be a checks and balance, only in Moscow today it's gone out the window.
What I will say is , I hope your right and I am wrong.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 2:14 pm

A good thread on the current state of play in Ukraine, Ukrainian area gains and the Russia Area gains with maps.

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1522 ... SouPihEfJQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Fri May 06, 2022 3:11 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:21 pm
The Mirror has a far-off photo of what is claimed to be this Admiral Makarov frigate. From reports it seem to be off the coast of Romania/Moldova and quite a way from Odessa. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... p-26889015

Coincidentally enough, Forbes had a very recent article saying that this was the most vulnerable target of Russia's (remaining) Black Sea fleet. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 17b9d674d5

A couple of weeks ago the sister ship, Admiral Essen, was also reported by the Ukrainians as being hit by missiles. What happened to that story?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_f ... iral_Essen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_G ... ss_frigate

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 3:58 pm

Looking more likely that something has happened to the Admiral Makarov

https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1522567204751003649

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 06, 2022 4:05 pm

The Ukrainians are very, very, very good at social media

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1522574828485677056

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sat May 07, 2022 12:32 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 3:58 pm
Looking more likely that something has happened to the Admiral Makarov

https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1522567204751003649
Good stuff. For some reason, it feels like naval losses are more embarrassing for Russia than all the tanks, etc. Slava Ukraine.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Loyalclaret » Sat May 07, 2022 8:34 am

As someone pointed out NewClaret, it is pretty embarrassing in a land war, against a country with very little/no navy.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat May 07, 2022 8:53 am

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1 ... 1303355392

Thread on what the sanctions are doing medium and long term to Russia

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Corky » Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

This is what UKDJ are reporting

Russia’s Admiral Makarov has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and is currently on fire, according to Ukrainian officials.
The frigate would be Russia’s latest naval loss coming after the Russian cruiser Moskva was sunk by Ukraine weeks ago.

Local media outlets also reported a frigate was burning in the Black Sea near to Snake Island.

“A Russian warship operating in the Black was hit and left burning by a Ukrainian cruise missile, news reports and social media reported on Friday. The UNIAN news agency citing the government social media website Dumska said the vessel was a “Burevestnik” class frigate, at midday located near the island Zmeyny, offshore from the Danube delta.

The usually-reliable Gruz200 military news web platform said a naval source confirmed that a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile struck the vessel. The Dumska statement likewise said a Ukrainian Neptune missile hit the ship, and that “large numbers” of Russian aircraft were circling overhead.”

A maritime ship tracking service showed a Russian rescue ship identified as SPK-46150 en route to the location and FlightRadar24 showed a US Air Force Global Hawk long-range reconnaissance drone over the location at 0500 this morning.

Commissioned in only 2017, the Admiral Makarov is one of Russia’s most modern warships and carries a crew of around 200.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat May 07, 2022 10:40 am

Some decent articles from the BBC. Seems to be turning in Ukraine's favour .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61343815

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat May 07, 2022 9:44 pm

Remarkable footage from a TB-2 drone of 2 Ukrainian Su-27 striking Russian facilities on Snake Island

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 0230444035

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Sun May 08, 2022 10:50 am

I found this piece of journalism very interesting. A visit to east Ukraine front lines by a journalist with quite a few (human and technical) insights. One thing I'd never considered is that the use of Starlink has played a big role for the Ukrainians - in terms of enabling comms. To quote a Ukrainian soldier from the piece "“Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can’t. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol.”

I think non-subscribers can read this story and the comments but you have to be a subscriber to join in the comments. https://unherd.com/2022/05/inside-the-b ... ern-front/
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun May 08, 2022 12:16 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 10:50 am
I found this piece of journalism very interesting. A visit to east Ukraine front lines by a journalist with quite a few (human and technical) insights. One thing I'd never considered is that the use of Starlink has played a big role for the Ukrainians - in terms of enabling comms. To quote a Ukrainian soldier from the piece "“Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can’t. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol.”

I think non-subscribers can read this story and the comments but you have to be a subscriber to join in the comments. https://unherd.com/2022/05/inside-the-b ... ern-front/
A really good read.
A massive day tomorrow, who knows what Putin is preparing, but he must have something special designed to boost his, and Russians, ego for May 9th.

Forewarned is forearmed, it would be so good if Ukraine can preempt it. It could be the straw that breaks Putins back.

My prayers are with them. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun May 08, 2022 7:41 pm

REUTERS: Latest footage released by Ukraine military demonstrates their ability to target a hovering helicopter.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1523 ... U3-YVUhRZw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon May 09, 2022 10:57 am

Luckily, Putin has not decided to announce a full mobilisation of troops today.

But the war continues in its current status.

Sadly for the Ukrainians.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 09, 2022 11:24 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 10:57 am
Luckily, Putin has not decided to announce a full mobilisation of troops today.

But the war continues in its current status.

Sadly for the Ukrainians.
He's not gone all in, because he knows he'll lose, and he's not declared a victory, because he knows there isn't going to be one

God knows what he's playing at?

Hoping Trump wins in 2024 and then hoping he manages to overrule 90% of Republican senators over Ukraine aid?

Going to be Syria Mk II

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Tribesmen » Mon May 09, 2022 11:24 am

Hey lucky Putin had a few tanks left to roll out in Red Square

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon May 09, 2022 11:34 am

BBC World Service - Putin addressing Russia yesterday

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/152 ... wHzRni2rOQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon May 09, 2022 11:54 am

President Zelenskiy’s 8th of May reply to Putin’s speech

https://twitter.com/donjmacleod/status/ ... wHzRni2rOQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Mon May 09, 2022 2:23 pm

RU cuts water supply to 1 million residents of Luhansk Oblast.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/sta ... KXxSYaZ6Kw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Dark Cloud » Mon May 09, 2022 2:35 pm

What happened to The Makarov? Anything (or nothing?) It's all gone rather quiet.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Mon May 09, 2022 3:31 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon May 09, 2022 4:49 pm

NEXTA: Azovstal Plant under attack again

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... rVMfqFCr7Q

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 09, 2022 11:33 pm

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0313433088

Very interesting thread on Ukrainian artillery targeting software
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 7:35 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 11:33 pm
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0313433088

Very interesting thread on Ukrainian artillery targeting software
Its been added to overnight to highlight the advantages that Starlink give Ukrainians (and the clear potential dangers of this as well)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Tue May 10, 2022 9:11 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 11:33 pm
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0313433088

Very interesting thread on Ukrainian artillery targeting software
Just read this.

Absolutely fascinating.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 9:37 am

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status ... 8422120449

Looks like the Admiral Makarov didn't go down, but the bigger Russian naval deployments are certainly staying very close to friendly territory

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 9:48 am

An army that after 70 odd days is still not learning.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... z1CSSVPIVw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 9:53 am

Russian estimated losses after 70 odd days. On people lost, I read a thread in the last couple of days where Ukraine’s contact line for Russian people to ring and find info on loved ones was at 32,000 enquiries. So 26,000 could be an under estimate.

Lost tanks is just a crazy number, when you consider the UK has 220 or so tanks.(I think I read)
9E7F7BCA-C210-4898-98E0-A9B6AAFBE637.png
9E7F7BCA-C210-4898-98E0-A9B6AAFBE637.png (331.73 KiB) Viewed 1451 times

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 10:08 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:48 am
An army that after 70 odd days is still not learning.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... z1CSSVPIVw
Still stuck to roads

By the time the weather improves (at this rate) they won't have the units or the equipment to use the terrain rather than the roads

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue May 10, 2022 10:32 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:48 am
An army that after 70 odd days is still not learning.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... z1CSSVPIVw
Think that video is the best I’ve seen. Sort of what I was expecting when they were all lined up North if Kyiv.

Do still feel there was a missed opportunity to inflict heavier damage on that convoy, although perhaps there was & that’s why it turned around?

Either way, a great video to illustrate that you cannot invade a country with your tanks and expect them to roll in unopposed.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 10:37 am

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/stat ... 6706268160

Analysis of potential Ukrainian counter attack options

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue May 10, 2022 10:38 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:53 am
Russian estimated losses after 70 odd days. On people lost, I read a thread in the last couple of days where Ukraine’s contact line for Russian people to ring and find info on loved ones was at 32,000 enquiries. So 26,000 could be an under estimate.

Lost tanks is just a crazy number, when you consider the UK has 220 or so tanks.(I think I read)

9E7F7BCA-C210-4898-98E0-A9B6AAFBE637.png
I still think 26k seems quite low from the destruction I’ve seen, although have been reminded before that probably means another 75k injured. Either way, appears from the footage seen in recent days that Ukrainian forces are inflicting some serious losses.

If the 220 is correct, I’d say that’s quite worrying having watched this war unfold. I’ve never really paid any attention to wars, and previously might’ve considered 220 a lot, but seeing how quickly they can be destroyed and the numbers Russia holds, makes that feel very low.

Appreciate as an island we likely face different risks and are not going to need the equipment to invade a country, but having seen this Russian aggression I’d be very keen we increase our defence spending!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 10, 2022 10:40 am

NewClaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 10:32 am
Think that video is the best I’ve seen. Sort of what I was expecting when they were all lined up North if Kyiv.

Do still feel there was a missed opportunity to inflict heavier damage on that convoy, although perhaps there was & that’s why it turned around?

Either way, a great video to illustrate that you cannot invade a country with your tanks and expect them to roll in unopposed.
We have to remember with stuff like this that its essentially Ukrainian military propaganda

I think the shots of Russian armor rolling through towns and villages are highly unlikely to be the same unit that got attacked for example

But its clear that until the Russians can get off the roads, then they are really going to struggle not to take losses, and with what looks like no way of striking back

It would be very interesting to know how far from the front lines that column was hit as well, because if the Ukrainians are deploying the longer ranger NATO artillery then the Russians lax security procedures and bunching up on the roads is really going to cost them

NewClaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue May 10, 2022 10:47 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 10:40 am
We have to remember with stuff like this that its essentially Ukrainian military propaganda

I think the shots of Russian armor rolling through towns and villages are highly unlikely to be the same unit that got attacked for example
Sorry, what do you mean by that?

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