Russia Invades

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Aclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Aclaret » Tue May 09, 2023 2:34 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 09, 2023 12:41 pm
Russian May Day parade

- no air at all

- only tank a T-34 (designed in Kharkiv, which is in Ukraine)

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1655855625899765760
When Putin is on a walkabout at such events, why is there someone close by carrying a briefcase ? Wonder whats in there ?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue May 09, 2023 2:40 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 09, 2023 12:41 pm
Russian May Day parade

- no air at all

- only tank a T-34 (designed in Kharkiv, which is in Ukraine)

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1655855625899765760
I saw a comment elsewhere about how the tank is actually on its way to Ukraine and just happened to be passing through at the time of the parade :lol:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue May 09, 2023 4:17 pm

Aclaret wrote:
Tue May 09, 2023 2:34 pm
When Putin is on a walkabout at such events, why is there someone close by carrying a briefcase ? Wonder whats in there ?
His sandwiches and a girly magazine.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue May 09, 2023 4:45 pm

I notice the crazy Wagner guy is stating that a Russian army unit fled a 2 mile front near Bakhmut leaving it totally open . Not sure if this is more pantomime or there’s some serious issues on much of the RUS front . Looks like it’s pretty much all RUS artillery that’s doing most of the donkey work .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 09, 2023 4:52 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue May 09, 2023 4:45 pm
I notice the crazy Wagner guy is stating that a Russian army unit fled a 2 mile front near Bakhmut leaving it totally open . Not sure if this is more pantomime or there’s some serious issues on much of the RUS front . Looks like it’s pretty much all RUS artillery that’s doing most of the donkey work .
There is a media blackout all over that area from the Ukrainian side

Perfectly possible that a Russian unit broke under the pressure near Bakhmut

What pics you see from both sides suggest its hell on earth, and your average Russian will be wondering why on earth he is there

One thing that isn't in dispute is the massive causalities being caused, its just how much is it costing Ukraine to bleed the Russian army?

One thing I will say is that Russian war aims for their offensive in 2023 were certainly much, much, much bigger than a small chunk of Donestk oblast and the longer they push into a city of 50,000, then the more exhausted they will be and when they reach the stage where they are exhausted, then that is when Ukraine will counter attack (and they have timed it pretty well so far)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed May 10, 2023 2:25 pm

Swiss government approves the confiscation of the reserves of Russia's Central Bank in favor of Ukraine
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 10, 2023 2:36 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue May 09, 2023 4:45 pm
I notice the crazy Wagner guy is stating that a Russian army unit fled a 2 mile front near Bakhmut leaving it totally open . Not sure if this is more pantomime or there’s some serious issues on much of the RUS front . Looks like it’s pretty much all RUS artillery that’s doing most of the donkey work .
There was some video of this supposedly happening. I don't believe it's part of the much hyped counter offensive, but it appeared to be a successful counter attack from the video. The maps have updated this morning showing a decent chunk of the bulge south of Bakhmut moving from Russian controlled to contested, including the Russian Rybar maps. Guess we'll see if it sticks.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Wed May 10, 2023 7:38 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Wed May 10, 2023 2:36 pm
There was some video of this supposedly happening. I don't believe it's part of the much hyped counter offensive, but it appeared to be a successful counter attack from the video. The maps have updated this morning showing a decent chunk of the bulge south of Bakhmut moving from Russian controlled to contested, including the Russian Rybar maps. Guess we'll see if it sticks.
It’s certainly some kind of breakthrough, whether it was a relatively sparsely defended trench or a full brigade ( unlikely ) has still allowed UKR to punch a hole of sorts . Be interesting if UKR seriously follow this up .Hard to see if this was a rout of sorts or tactical withdrawal .It’s almost impossible to gauge either sides immediate strength . Though seems likely an exhausted Wagner with little in the way of fresh /decent troops in rotation .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Thu May 11, 2023 12:07 am

The real voice of Russia. Hope he was at the airport well before this went out

https://twitter.com/mingthemercil15/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 11, 2023 10:27 am

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1 ... 1343074305

UK provides Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Thu May 11, 2023 11:52 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 10:27 am
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1 ... 1343074305

UK provides Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine
I think the beauty of these and any other long range ordinance is the sheer potential of taking out serious RUS ammo depots/ supply lines etc . As I’m pretty damn sure the west’s Sat tech will enable a far higher “ strike rate” than some of the seemingly scattergun ( literally ) approach of much of the RUS shelling .
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 11, 2023 12:32 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 11:52 am
I think the beauty of these and any other long range ordinance is the sheer potential of taking out serious RUS ammo depots/ supply lines etc . As I’m pretty damn sure the west’s Sat tech will enable a far higher “ strike rate” than some of the seemingly scattergun ( literally ) approach of much of the RUS shelling .
All the videos I'm seeing show targeted Ukrainian shelling (mainly one gun firing at a specific target)

You are 100% correct that this will push Russian logistics/ammunition/repair hubs even further back than they are already, and the problems they have had all war supplying their front line units will just get worse

As we saw in Kherson, it might get to the stage where the Russians have to withdraw because they just can't supply the front line and it will weaken the ability of the Russians to hold and fight when under serious attack (which may already have started)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Thu May 11, 2023 1:18 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 10:27 am
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1 ... 1343074305

UK provides Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine
That looks like a seriously impressive bit of kit, a guy I worked with a few years ago (he'd retired from the army after 30 years and reached quite a high rank) said the arms industry like a conflict every now and then to really show the potency of their weapons, far more superior then displays and demonstrations. Hope this helps Ukraine to win.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Burnley1989 » Thu May 11, 2023 3:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 10:27 am
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1 ... 1343074305

UK provides Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine
I did some work at MBDA in Bolton late last year, the optics side of the missile, very impressive place.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Thu May 11, 2023 6:14 pm

5A4745AE-AE3E-4207-BF35-7EC80CCFCAFA.jpeg
5A4745AE-AE3E-4207-BF35-7EC80CCFCAFA.jpeg (919.51 KiB) Viewed 5299 times
Even the Russians are reporting multiple “ withdrawals “ on the flanks of Bakhmut .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 12, 2023 8:14 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Foshiznik » Fri May 12, 2023 8:24 am

Image

Always find these daily illustrations helpful.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Fri May 12, 2023 9:59 am

bfcjg wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 1:18 pm
That looks like a seriously impressive bit of kit, a guy I worked with a few years ago (he'd retired from the army after 30 years and reached quite a high rank) said the arms industry like a conflict every now and then to really show the potency of their weapons, far more superior then displays and demonstrations. Hope this helps Ukraine to win.
The Falklands conflict was very good for the UK defense industry, a lot was learnt then

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 12, 2023 10:06 am

Bloody twitter changes with the blue tick pushing loads of ******** to my timeline unfortunately

Hard to work out what is going on, but there is no way that Ukraine is invading Belgorod or Kursk or anywhere in Russia proper

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Sat May 13, 2023 7:09 pm

Russia has reportedly lost 4 units of its air-force today inside an area of Russia bordering Ukraine. 2 SU aircraft (one bomber and 1 support fighter it seems) + 2 helicopters. It's not clear yet if due to their own air-defence shooting down (which seems common), Ukrainian missiles from inside Ukraine or sabotage. https://twitter.com/search?q=Su-34&src= ... cal=trends

Also it's been reported that at least one storm shadow missile was involved in yesterday's/today's long range missile strikes on Russian assets within Russian-occupied Ukraine. This maybe false info from Russians as It was only announced a couple of days ago that they were to be supplied. https://twitter.com/search?q=storm%20sh ... yped_query

Added to the recent Ukrainian counter-attacks around Bakhmut, pressure mounting on Russian military these last few days.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat May 13, 2023 9:26 pm

The Ukrainian fight back has started

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat May 13, 2023 10:01 pm

So the Belarusian President is in hospital I'm seeing...

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sat May 13, 2023 10:22 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:01 pm
So the Belarusian President is in hospital I'm seeing...
With a bit of luck he's seriously ill.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Claret Toni » Sat May 13, 2023 10:37 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:01 pm
So the Belarusian President is in hospital I'm seeing...
Can't be a fall - that's usually more serious. Perhaps it's something he ate.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Sat May 13, 2023 11:43 pm

Claret Toni wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:37 pm
Can't be a fall - that's usually more serious. Perhaps it's something he ate.
Or maybe drank https://twitter.com/Tom_Haddock2/status ... 5332532227
He did visit Vlad for the big recent parade.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun May 14, 2023 1:38 am

Rob Lee:
GeoConfirmed Investigation:

"The first Ukrainian deep strike in Luhansk, the biggest logistical and command hub for the Russians and 85km away from the frontline. On 12 May 2023 Ukraine used a new capability."

First the geolocations 🧐

(This will be a '31+ tweets' thread)


https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1657 ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sun May 14, 2023 8:02 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:22 pm
With a bit of luck he's seriously ill.
On the whole he's been forced to run a sensible line and not get involved in the war directly, against Putin's wishes it seems. If he is removed his replacement may be less concerned about becoming closer to Putin and may enter the war. Whilst I'm not sure what sort of a threat they mount it would not be helpful to Ukraine.

Perhaps a case of 'better the devil you know'.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun May 14, 2023 1:02 pm

NEXTA: The arrival of the #Russian invaders in #Bakhmut ended in an apocalypse for the city.

📸 Press service of the 24th Motorized Brigade named after King Daniel

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/165 ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun May 14, 2023 1:32 pm

Hipper wrote:
Sun May 14, 2023 8:02 am
On the whole he's been forced to run a sensible line and not get involved in the war directly, against Putin's wishes it seems. If he is removed his replacement may be less concerned about becoming closer to Putin and may enter the war. Whilst I'm not sure what sort of a threat they mount it would not be helpful to Ukraine.

Perhaps a case of 'better the devil you know'.
The ONLY reason he hasn't joined the war, is because as far as the Belarusians are concerned it would be the final straw.
They don't like his regime, they don't agree with Putin invading Ukraine, and that was before Ukraine showed them what they are capable of.
I cant see anyway Belarusia joins this fight, not on the side of the Russians anyway.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Sun May 14, 2023 1:58 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Sun May 14, 2023 1:32 pm
The ONLY reason he hasn't joined the war, is because as far as the Belarusians are concerned it would be the final straw.
They don't like his regime, they don't agree with Putin invading Ukraine, and that was before Ukraine showed them what they are capable of.
I cant see anyway Belarusia joins this fight, not on the side of the Russians anyway.
Earlier in the war, there were a few instances of sabotage (of Russian assets/ transport lines) in Belarus and also there was (probably still is) a military unit of Belarusians fighting in Ukraine against the Russians. Some have hypothesised that the Belarus army could revolt if ordered to fight against Ukraine.
Not that this has stopped Lukashenko aiding Russia by supplying ammo/arms and locations within his country for Russia to use militarily. Theoretically there should be elections if he dies I think- but he fixed the last election results and has probably set up a pro Russian successor to take over without elections.
Worst case is that Russia would use his death to more directly take control of Belarus. Its maybe best all round if he survives whatever he's got and the status quo is maintained.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun May 14, 2023 10:08 pm

20230514_220548.jpg
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue May 16, 2023 9:17 am

A couple of interesting/odd points in the latest bulletin.

1. Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.

2. The Russian MoD claimed that it intercepted a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile for the first time on May 15.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ay-15-2023

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 16, 2023 10:27 am

I give it a week before Russia claims to have intercepted more Storm Shadows than have actually been built
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Tue May 16, 2023 11:07 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue May 16, 2023 10:27 am
I give it a week before Russia claims to have intercepted more Storm Shadows than have actually been built
Undoubtedly they will - on top of having taken out more HIMARS than were ever delivered to Ukraine.
I guess Ukraine also overstates successes v missile attacks but it looks like the various modern Nato weapons appear to be doing at least a decent job even if there is a fair bit of exaggeration here.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 3759083522

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed May 17, 2023 8:26 pm

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... OFfOg&s=19

An estimated/claimed 200k dead russian soldiers.

As someone else pointed out, there will also be further casualties, maybe up to 300k.

That's a staggering amount

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 18, 2023 10:28 am

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status ... 8882761733

Stuff like this is pretty informative on where the war is going

A decimated Russian unit, quickly rebuilt with raw recruits and obsolete equipment, is the reserve for the Russians South of Bakhmut

They won't be able to do anything but try to stop any attacks, which is not the role of a reserve unit behind a front line of fixed fortifications

And if this is Opensignit, then its 100% sure the UAF know this as well

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Thu May 18, 2023 3:35 pm

The flanks around Bakhmut look to be teetering somewhat . The sheer amateur defence of the recently overrun trenches by UKR are a sight to behold. The RUS didn’t appear to have any ATG , mortar ,rpg either in the trench network or surrounding area , no mining , no communication and critically no support from either flank or air, all with open fields behind them . Almost defies belief .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Thu May 18, 2023 5:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 10:28 am
https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status ... 8882761733

Stuff like this is pretty informative on where the war is going

A decimated Russian unit, quickly rebuilt with raw recruits and obsolete equipment, is the reserve for the Russians South of Bakhmut

They won't be able to do anything but try to stop any attacks, which is not the role of a reserve unit behind a front line of fixed fortifications

And if this is Opensignit, then its 100% sure the UAF know this as well
You have to feel for these new recruits......as soon as they get there, they get slaughtered.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 19, 2023 3:34 pm

https://twitter.com/aloha9916/status/16 ... 0802525184

Wear and tear will also take its toll over a long war

Think I've already linked a thread on this on here, but essentially there are severe doubts that Russia has ability to repair damage like this as quickly as it needs to

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Fri May 19, 2023 3:51 pm

Stormer after a lancet hit on it

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/16 ... CA2SO0u6vg

It is amazing how little damage the vehicle itself isn’t particularly well protected when it comes to armour.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 19, 2023 9:11 pm

Biggest news today is clearly the info that the US will allow nations to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s

Almost certainly that will be followed by deliveries of F-16s from the nations which are upgrading to the F-35 to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1659620288865116164

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Fri May 19, 2023 9:13 pm

Good news.

Any update on when/whether this much anticipated offensive is going to start?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 19, 2023 9:33 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 9:13 pm
Good news.

Any update on when/whether this much anticipated offensive is going to start?
No!

I am assuming that the Ukrainians are very happy with the attrition rate v Russian units, but there was also a good article on the way Russian units and commands have adapted to the war, and that would cause headaches for the Ukrainians, especially if the offensive starts

It did highlight though that (in their opinion) that a crack in the Russian lines would be harder for the Russians to react to and consequently could be a lot more successful because of it

Either way, the Russians have depths of defences, with kill zones, all covered by artillery or tanks (a T-55 acting as an artillery piece is probably the best use of it to be perfectly honest) and that will be hard to break through

Thing is, the only thing that is looking obvious now is that Putin is not going to negotiate under any circumstances that would be remotely acceptable to Ukraine, so the West and their partners will reach the conclusion that the only way this ends is with a complete Ukrainian victory, and the only way to achieve that is supply Ukraine with as much as it needs

You have to remember that the West power, both hard and soft completely out guns whatever Russia does, and that should be deceive

I'll try to find the link to the article

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Cirrus_Minor » Fri May 19, 2023 11:00 pm

Meanwhile Zelensky is invited to attend the Arab League as they welcome back Syrian president Basar-Al--Assad to the fold with open arms. Remember Syria has been backed by Putins Russia on a murderous bombing campaign against its own people. Chemical weapons, barrel bombs and wholesale slaughter but the dictator has now faced down the US, UK and NATO with the help of Putin. Must be a depressing watch for Zelensky.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sat May 20, 2023 2:37 pm

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 11:00 pm
Meanwhile Zelensky is invited to attend the Arab League as they welcome back Syrian president Basar-Al--Assad to the fold with open arms. Remember Syria has been backed by Putins Russia on a murderous bombing campaign against its own people. Chemical weapons, barrel bombs and wholesale slaughter but the dictator has now faced down the US, UK and NATO with the help of Putin. Must be a depressing watch for Zelensky.
Unfortunately the West has admired Middle East money for so long they are not sure how to deal with an ideological power block that is not ‘Communist’ but is potentially more dangerous. Unfortunately the West is reaping what they sowed, the exploitation in the region from the war until the 1970’s has made it a very uneven relationship… we rely on their oil, they have long memories.

The only silver lining is they are welcoming Bolshevik puppets rather than Chinese, that would present a much bigger immediate threat.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Sat May 20, 2023 8:15 pm

Seems Bakhmut has finally fallen , truly horrific losses on both sides for this bizarre “ trophy “. What happens now is anyone’s guess , can RUS really replace Wagner’s mercenaries? Far as I can see though the full city has fallen the flanks look very shaky indeed . It’s hard to see RUS moving anything but greenhorns into the void . I’d imagine they’ll attempt to make it part of their defensive line as they ain’t going any further .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Sat May 20, 2023 8:20 pm

Wagner’s boss said on the 25th of May he was moving his forces out of Ukraine and to the Sudan. First, you really can’t believe any thing he says and secondly, I wonder if Putin will let him do that. But if he does pull all Wagner forces out that will make things difficult for the RU army. Will be interesting for sure.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat May 20, 2023 8:25 pm

You'd imagine that Wagner units would be pulled out for R & R as they must be absolutely on their last legs

Its still taken Russia the best part of a year to advance about 35 miles in this sector though, at god knows what losses

And as has already been said, the flanks have wobbled alarmingly over the past couple of weeks

Still, not easy to retake a city once its fallen unless there is a total collapse (like Izyum)or a withdrawal (like Kherson)

Still be interesting to see where and when the Ukrainian attacks aim for

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 21, 2023 12:58 pm

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 5358841857

Biden says that there have been 100,000 Russian casualties in Bakhmut

Its a staggering amount

There just doesn't appear to be a plan to conserve Russian combat power at all, anywhere on the front, and it makes no sense

What are they thinking is going to happen if they lose that amount of troops while the Ukrainians get stronger?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Billy Balfour » Sun May 21, 2023 1:24 pm

They haven't moved on since WW1/WW2. Just throw people into the meat grinder.

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