Russia Invades

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
elwaclaret
Posts: 8929
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am
Been Liked: 1986 times
Has Liked: 2876 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 3:13 pm

ABRAMOVICH WATCH - Chelsea sale in doubt as Russian oligarch now insisting a S $1.6B loan to the club is returned, despite previously saying it would not says THE PRICE OF FOOTBALL

https://twitter.com/kieranmaguire/statu ... GuXTYhiW8A

Elsewhere fears are growing that the British Government are dragging their heels and leaving open the possibility of his return to football ownership in the country (though probably not a return to Chelsea).

elwaclaret
Posts: 8929
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am
Been Liked: 1986 times
Has Liked: 2876 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 3:33 pm

NEXTA: Large scale assault on the Avostal plant is underway.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... GuXTYhiW8A

Elbarad
Posts: 519
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Been Liked: 147 times
Has Liked: 50 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue May 03, 2022 5:39 pm

Looking like the Ukrainians are going to clear the area N and E of Kharkiv in the next couple of days. They just reported that they took Molodova, the village, not the country. There are only 3 more bridges across the Donets river, all within maybe 15 k of Molodova. So reachable, and certainly within range of artillery if the Russians tried to retreat across them.

If they do drive them all the way to the border, that puts them 40 kilometers from Belgorod. You'd think the Russians would have to redirect some forces to be sure they don't cross the border and get within artillery range of their main supply hub.

To be clear I don't think the Ukrainians have the force available currently to assault Belgorod, just saying... that's pretty close.
These 2 users liked this post: Lancasterclaret Colburn_Claret

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 5:45 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 5:39 pm
Looking like the Ukrainians are going to clear the area N and E of Kharkiv in the next couple of days. They just reported that they took Molodova, the village, not the country. There are only 3 more bridges across the Donets river, all within maybe 15 k of Molodova. So reachable, and certainly within range of artillery if the Russians tried to retreat across them.

If they do drive them all the way to the border, that puts them 40 kilometers from Belgorod. You'd think the Russians would have to redirect some forces to be sure they don't cross the border and get within artillery range of their main supply hub.

To be clear I don't think the Ukrainians have the force available currently to assault Belgorod, just saying... that's pretty close.
Kupyansk is the target - that is the main supply hub for Izyum

Course, the Russians will have to make sure their border is secure but I can't see the Ukrainians crossing it

Elbarad
Posts: 519
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Been Liked: 147 times
Has Liked: 50 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue May 03, 2022 5:54 pm

Kupyansk is certainly A target, no doubt. If the Ukrainians did manage to clear the west bank of the Donets River that would put them a mile at most from the road to Belgorod and Kypyansk. Obviously they can take other, longer routes, but still I think that would be a pain point.

Fingers crossed.

I'll get back in my arm chair and general some more now. Hah.
These 2 users liked this post: GodIsADeeJay81 Lancasterclaret

GodIsADeeJay81
Posts: 14566
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 am
Been Liked: 3435 times
Has Liked: 6339 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue May 03, 2022 6:03 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 5:54 pm

I'll get back in my arm chair and general some more now. Hah.
Armchair-General-post.jpg
Armchair-General-post.jpg (85.82 KiB) Viewed 4018 times
This you?
This user liked this post: Elbarad

jos
Posts: 1407
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:02 pm
Been Liked: 227 times
Has Liked: 294 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Tue May 03, 2022 6:51 pm

Finland minister advisor-
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.

https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21

bfcjg
Posts: 13157
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:17 pm
Been Liked: 5004 times
Has Liked: 6722 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue May 03, 2022 7:21 pm

jos wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:51 pm
Finland minister advisor-
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.

https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21
Let's hope so !

elwaclaret
Posts: 8929
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am
Been Liked: 1986 times
Has Liked: 2876 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 8:12 pm

Phillips-OBrien: Another command post targeted by Ukraine along with ammo dumps, as Ukraine continues to exploit improving missile technology and western intelligence advantages.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 66BZUs9TbA

elwaclaret
Posts: 8929
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am
Been Liked: 1986 times
Has Liked: 2876 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 8:18 pm

Rob LEE: Todays update, including gains for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... 66BZUs9TbA

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 8:19 pm

jos wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:51 pm
Finland minister advisor-
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.

https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21
Let’s hope this is true.

What is true is Russia is losing, but at great cost to Ukrainians lives.

elwaclaret
Posts: 8929
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am
Been Liked: 1986 times
Has Liked: 2876 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 9:10 pm

Phillips-OBrien: analysts starting to consider how to turn defence into Ukrainian counter-attack.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 66BZUs9TbA

(You’d expect them, given their allies to make a far more considered approach to that adopted by Putin)

jos
Posts: 1407
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:02 pm
Been Liked: 227 times
Has Liked: 294 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Tue May 03, 2022 9:32 pm

Killed in Ukraine:-

447 killed Russian officers • Updated 2nd May 2022

https://twitter.com/killedinukraine/sta ... 35745?s=21

GodIsADeeJay81
Posts: 14566
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 am
Been Liked: 3435 times
Has Liked: 6339 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed May 04, 2022 12:36 am

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/statu ... 6r97g&s=19

A growing belief that Russia will announce mobilization on May 9th

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 9:04 am

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/ ... 8441390080

EU to ban the import of Russian oil*

*despite many people thinking otherwise, the EU can't just do this and the member states having no say, so this is just the start of a process, but its a welcome development
This user liked this post: Taffy on the wing

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 9:06 am

So I have screenshot the before and after, and will put the link to the after video.
But I have a question for anyone who might know the answer to a question. So obviously this supply convoy was parked up and spotted by a drone, first picture. Now the question, previously I understood laser guided munitions needed someone on the ground to be pointing a laser at the target. In the new world of drones, are drones now used to do the laser targeting. I ask because this attack looks to be very successful at hitting the targets.
CB24CF9B-BC9B-461C-BC26-231E7E5A1E27.jpeg
CB24CF9B-BC9B-461C-BC26-231E7E5A1E27.jpeg (302.64 KiB) Viewed 3383 times
EB4EB6DB-9EB1-4A42-981C-D072B2254A1D.png
EB4EB6DB-9EB1-4A42-981C-D072B2254A1D.png (1.47 MiB) Viewed 3383 times
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... DnpjqqfpCA

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 10:47 am

Whilst doing some reading on the American guided munitions this video popped up. The 155mm munitions appear to be mainly gps guided, so I guess the Drone in this video is providing gps data . It is very accurate on this video. No where to run and hide. But most troops appear to survive the explosions and move to another location before getting hit again.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 10:54 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 10:47 am
Whilst doing some reading on the American guided munitions this video popped up. The 155mm munitions appear to be mainly gps guided, so I guess the Drone in this video is providing gps data . It is very accurate on this video. No where to run and hide. But most troops appear to survive the explosions and move to another location before getting hit again.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA
There was a great thread on the web about the difference between air burst shells and shells that explode when they hit the ground, especially when targeting troops in trenches and fortifications

Essentially the Russians appear not to be using them, which means they are essentially wasting their time when shelling troops in trenches and fortifications

For Ukraine to take back these territories, they are going to have to be able to take and destroy pretty extensive Russian fortifications and trench systems, and the artillery and munitions that Ukraine is receiving might well help them to do that

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 10:59 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 10:54 am
There was a great thread on the web about the difference between air burst shells and shells that explode when they hit the ground, especially when targeting troops in trenches and fortifications

Essentially the Russians appear not to be using them, which means they are essentially wasting their time when shelling troops in trenches and fortifications

For Ukraine to take back these territories, they are going to have to be able to take and destroy pretty extensive Russian fortifications and trench systems, and the artillery and munitions that Ukraine is receiving might well help them to do that
I read the guided shells cost $68,000 each. Like wow , that’s a lot of cash per shell.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 11:14 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 10:59 am
I read the guided shells cost $68,000 each. Like wow , that’s a lot of cash per shell.
Yup, but fighting wars bankrupt countries

Continuing to fight wars after the initial beliefs and objectives are proved to be totally wrong and totally unachievable, and taking unsustainable casualties and short, medium and long term damage to your countries economic health is absolutely bonkers, and there is no sign that Russia are willing to accept they have miscalculated

I'm back to the worried stage now about this spreading, and I do wonder what the mad f**ker is going to say on May 9th

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 11:16 am

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 6867811328

South Ossetian troops not happy with the conduct of war

GodIsADeeJay81
Posts: 14566
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 am
Been Liked: 3435 times
Has Liked: 6339 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed May 04, 2022 12:47 pm

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1 ... u58PQ&s=19

Not for the faint hearted, story of some Ukrainian soldiers who were subsequently tortured

AlargeClaret
Posts: 4428
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:55 pm
Been Liked: 1148 times
Has Liked: 180 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Wed May 04, 2022 1:25 pm

Well so much for the EU’s “ crippling sanctions “ You get in bed with your enemy and here’s the results . The EU literally funding the atrocity . Russia of course knew this would leave Germany totally rudderless for around a year , in which time they’d be all wrapped up and … quelle suprise ! “ carry on regardless “! supplying oil.

box_of_frogs
Posts: 4955
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:47 am
Been Liked: 1087 times
Has Liked: 996 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by box_of_frogs » Wed May 04, 2022 3:28 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:06 am
So I have screenshot the before and after, and will put the link to the after video.
But I have a question for anyone who might know the answer to a question. So obviously this supply convoy was parked up and spotted by a drone, first picture. Now the question, previously I understood laser guided munitions needed someone on the ground to be pointing a laser at the target. In the new world of drones, are drones now used to do the laser targeting. I ask because this attack looks to be very successful at hitting the targets.

CB24CF9B-BC9B-461C-BC26-231E7E5A1E27.jpeg

EB4EB6DB-9EB1-4A42-981C-D072B2254A1D.png

https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... DnpjqqfpCA
In short, big ‘drones’ have always had the correct type of laser to guide munitions. Look at the US/UK Predator and Reaper. Ukraine has this capability in the TB2. As you state, you can also lase from the ground. Smaller drones aren’t big enough to take either the laser or power it to guide a munition properly. But they can still spot….

box_of_frogs
Posts: 4955
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:47 am
Been Liked: 1087 times
Has Liked: 996 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by box_of_frogs » Wed May 04, 2022 3:31 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 10:47 am
Whilst doing some reading on the American guided munitions this video popped up. The 155mm munitions appear to be mainly gps guided, so I guess the Drone in this video is providing gps data . It is very accurate on this video. No where to run and hide. But most troops appear to survive the explosions and move to another location before getting hit again.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA
Not watched the video yet, but not necessarily guided munitions. If you know where you are to a high degree of precision, you know where your target is to a high degree then you can still accurately fire arty or mortars if your fire control and aiming systems are accurate. If you’re also able to adjust properly then it’s even easier.

Key - don’t get spotted.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 3:31 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 1:25 pm
Well so much for the EU’s “ crippling sanctions “ You get in bed with your enemy and here’s the results . The EU literally funding the atrocity . Russia of course knew this would leave Germany totally rudderless for around a year , in which time they’d be all wrapped up and … quelle suprise ! “ carry on regardless “! supplying oil.
Again, they take time to implement and it has to be agreed across 27 countries

The biggest thing in todays sanctions announced by the EU (something we 100% won't do unfortunately) is the ban on EU citizens and companies working with Russia. That will cut off those companies that essentially spread Russian propaganda and those organisations that go after people and organisations who try to tell the truth about Putin, oligarchs and the Russian Federation

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 4:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 3:31 pm
Again, they take time to implement and it has to be agreed across 27 countries

The biggest thing in todays sanctions announced by the EU (something we 100% won't do unfortunately) is the ban on EU citizens and companies working with Russia. That will cut off those companies that essentially spread Russian propaganda and those organisations that go after people and organisations who try to tell the truth about Putin, oligarchs and the Russian Federation
Take it back, the Uk has just banned it from three sectors (management consulting, accountancy and PR)

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1 ... 6516783106
This user liked this post: Colburn_Claret

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 6:37 pm

So this is the first recorded new tank T-90M MBT.

Obviously no better than the old stuff against the wests stuff.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... AwpXpYK9Gw

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 6:51 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 6:37 pm
So this is the first recorded new tank T-90M MBT.

Obviously no better than the old stuff against the wests stuff.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... AwpXpYK9Gw
They are not going to be, the anti-tank stuff the West is sending is specifically designed to kill this type of tank

Until they work out proper tactics and have proper unit formations (no more of these clearly over balanced BTGs) then they will continue to take these sorts of losses

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 7:22 pm

Some combat footage allegedly from near Kharkiv in three parts. Part three shows all the kit the Russians left behind.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw

There are no real killings or gory bits.

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 7:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 6:51 pm
They are not going to be, the anti-tank stuff the West is sending is specifically designed to kill this type of tank

Until they work out proper tactics and have proper unit formations (no more of these clearly over balanced BTGs) then they will continue to take these sorts of losses
The videos I just posted, show the Ukrainians using mainly 4x4 trucks to move quickly, strike and move on.

JarrowClaret
Posts: 1475
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:04 pm
Been Liked: 341 times
Has Liked: 194 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Wed May 04, 2022 9:10 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 7:22 pm
Some combat footage allegedly from near Kharkiv in three parts. Part three shows all the kit the Russians left behind.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw

There are no real killings or gory bits.

Bit of an update from my friend in south east Ukraine!

Their sister battalion has lost over 450 KIA over the last 10 days so have had to pull in the reserve troops and get them replaced. a staggering amount of deaths but it just highlights how contested it still is.

They repelled 2 Russian BTG’s which also took horrendous casualties and lost around 16 tanks over the last 4 days, countless of other vehicles also.

There are another 2 BTG’s that are now deemed to be not combat effective, they must be down to 30-20% CE.

They estimates that the Russians have lost up to 33% of their full invasion force which is a huge amount if true his figures would be more accurate than ours though I would think.

The Russian BTG’s keep on getting thrown together ad hoc and launched back into the fray, they are only using people from the far flung districts of Russia, he hasn’t seen any from the Moscow or St Petersburg districts etc as the death toll there would sway public opinion.

That’s just in his area, Ukrainian forces are relieving and pushing the orcs out of Kharkiv district and are doing well.


Public opinion will mean that I would be hugely shocked if Putin mobilised anytime soon!
These 2 users liked this post: NewClaret jos

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed May 04, 2022 9:39 pm

JarrowClaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:10 pm
Bit of an update from my friend in south east Ukraine!

Their sister battalion has lost over 450 KIA over the last 10 days so have had to pull in the reserve troops and get them replaced. a staggering amount of deaths but it just highlights how contested it still is.

They repelled 2 Russian BTG’s which also took horrendous casualties and lost around 16 tanks over the last 4 days, countless of other vehicles also.

There are another 2 BTG’s that are now deemed to be not combat effective, they must be down to 30-20% CE.

They estimates that the Russians have lost up to 33% of their full invasion force which is a huge amount if true his figures would be more accurate than ours though I would think.

The Russian BTG’s keep on getting thrown together ad hoc and launched back into the fray, they are only using people from the far flung districts of Russia, he hasn’t seen any from the Moscow or St Petersburg districts etc as the death toll there would sway public opinion.

That’s just in his area, Ukrainian forces are relieving and pushing the orcs out of Kharkiv district and are doing well.


Public opinion will mean that I would be hugely shocked if Putin mobilised anytime soon!
Firstly I think from all I have read, they have lost more than 33% of the force they invaded with. They have made Ukrainians in the occupied parts sign up and fight plus people they have brought from other parts of the world.

I see the casualties mount for Russia and honestly whilst I know the Ukrainians must be taking heavy casualties I kinda want to hope they don’t. Sad to hear they lost so many. Wish we could do more to help them.

But unless something drastically changes, I see Ukraine drivingRussians out .

NewClaret
Posts: 13225
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:51 am
Been Liked: 3037 times
Has Liked: 3759 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pm

Just bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.

Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).

Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.

Elbarad
Posts: 519
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Been Liked: 147 times
Has Liked: 50 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Thu May 05, 2022 4:01 am

NewClaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pm
Just bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.

Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?)
Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
Hopefully with heavy casualties on both sides. Just because some Russian ministers get scared of a purge and take Putin out doesn’t make them hero’s. Having a good handful of those guys go down with him would be just desserts. Just my opinion and I’m not suggesting you would view his generals and ministers as hero’s either.

Vegas Claret
Posts: 30275
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:00 am
Been Liked: 10917 times
Has Liked: 5594 times
Location: clue is in the title

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Thu May 05, 2022 5:11 am

NewClaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pm
Just bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.

Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).

Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.

fingers crossed

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 7:27 am

NewClaret wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pm
Just bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.

Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).

Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
Dunno

Just finished reading Johnathan Dimberbys book on "Russia" (written in 2007), and all the stuff you hear about Putins Russia now is just starting and he absolutely nails the dangers that entails. It really good have been written this year as absolutely nothing has changed

Long story short, I don't think the Russians are going to rise up against Putin as he represents stability and a huge link to the past

Hope I'm wrong though

Colburn_Claret
Posts: 8069
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 pm
Been Liked: 3060 times
Has Liked: 5023 times
Location: Catterick N.Yorks

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu May 05, 2022 7:52 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 7:27 am
Dunno

Just finished reading Johnathan Dimberbys book on "Russia" (written in 2007), and all the stuff you hear about Putins Russia now is just starting and he absolutely nails the dangers that entails. It really good have been written this year as absolutely nothing has changed

Long story short, I don't think the Russians are going to rise up against Putin as he represents stability and a huge link to the past

Hope I'm wrong though
The status quote can't continue.
Russian losses aren't sustainable, they don't have the man power, or equipment to hold onto their gains, never mind to push on and gain ground (so long as the West keep up supplies ). The sanctions, although they will be felt, haven't had time to bite yet.
The problem the world faces is what happens when the balance tilts, what will Putin do, will he be allowed to do it. I doubt even the powers that be, have anymore idea than the rest of us.
Throwing in untrained conscripts, from far flung outposts of Russia, in order to protect the Moscovite troops, sums this tyrant up as much as anything. He really is as bad as Hitler. The world cannot appease him in anyway. Whenever this horrible war ends, Russia needs to be treated like a Pariah until he is gone.
These 2 users liked this post: Rumpelstiltskin bfcjg

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 9:31 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 7:52 am
The status quote can't continue.
Russian losses aren't sustainable, they don't have the man power, or equipment to hold onto their gains, never mind to push on and gain ground (so long as the West keep up supplies ). The sanctions, although they will be felt, haven't had time to bite yet.
The problem the world faces is what happens when the balance tilts, what will Putin do, will he be allowed to do it. I doubt even the powers that be, have anymore idea than the rest of us.
Throwing in untrained conscripts, from far flung outposts of Russia, in order to protect the Moscovite troops, sums this tyrant up as much as anything. He really is as bad as Hitler. The world cannot appease him in anyway. Whenever this horrible war ends, Russia needs to be treated like a Pariah until he is gone.
I agree with everything in the 4-5 posts.
But the problem with Russia is you hope it’s going to change with leadership. Gorbachev dramatically changed the country and it looked like it might take on a more eastern style approach and kinda did for a while. The west then starts to cosy up to Russia hoping it sees the symbiotic relationship helps a Russia financially and economically and with stability.

Then along comes Putin.

So we could get another Gorbachev next, but when does another Putin come along.

Russia could have made its people lives so much better with the money pouring in, but no he spends on arms to attack people with.

It is a really sad state of affairs, due to one lunatic.
This user liked this post: Rumpelstiltskin

Colburn_Claret
Posts: 8069
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 pm
Been Liked: 3060 times
Has Liked: 5023 times
Location: Catterick N.Yorks

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu May 05, 2022 9:50 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 9:31 am
I agree with everything in the 4-5 posts.
But the problem with Russia is you hope it’s going to change with leadership. Gorbachev dramatically changed the country and it looked like it might take on a more eastern style approach and kinda did for a while. The west then starts to cosy up to Russia hoping it sees the symbiotic relationship helps a Russia financially and economically and with stability.

Then along comes Putin.

So we could get another Gorbachev next, but when does another Putin come along.

Russia could have made its people lives so much better with the money pouring in, but no he spends on arms to attack people with.

It is a really sad state of affairs, due to one lunatic.
It's his age, clinging to a bye gone era, supported by people with the same hangups.
As soon as Russia can get a leader under 50 years old, it will change, and never go back imo.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 10:01 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 9:50 am
It's his age, clinging to a bye gone era, supported by people with the same hangups.
As soon as Russia can get a leader under 50 years old, it will change, and never go back imo.
Again, I'd love you both to be right, but the Russian experts online are all saying the same thing, they can't see Putin being removed by a popular uprising, whatever he does

Mind you, they all thought Putin was bluffing when he built up his military around Ukraine so who knows?

The key is finding some way out of this, and there isn't one at the moment

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 10:08 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 9:50 am
It's his age, clinging to a bye gone era, supported by people with the same hangups.
As soon as Russia can get a leader under 50 years old, it will change, and never go back imo.
Unfortunately history suggests other wise.

Gorbachev, put forward a new openness, freedom of speech etc. The people with power didn’t like it and there was a failed coup. But ultimately dissolved the USSR. That caused massive issues for normal Russians. Economically and lack of basic foods.

Along come Putin and he provides stability, but makes people around him very rich, they keep him in power.

I really don’t see Russia suddenly becoming ademocratic state. Too many powerful men with all the money.

Therefore your always in danger of another Putin.

The world needs to stop giving him money and arm to the teeth against him, in a defensive position. The second Cold War is next unfortunately.

Colburn_Claret
Posts: 8069
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 pm
Been Liked: 3060 times
Has Liked: 5023 times
Location: Catterick N.Yorks

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu May 05, 2022 12:37 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 10:08 am
Unfortunately history suggests other wise.

Gorbachev, put forward a new openness, freedom of speech etc. The people with power didn’t like it and there was a failed coup. But ultimately dissolved the USSR. That caused massive issues for normal Russians. Economically and lack of basic foods.

Along come Putin and he provides stability, but makes people around him very rich, they keep him in power.

I really don’t see Russia suddenly becoming ademocratic state. Too many powerful men with all the money.

Therefore your always in danger of another Putin.

The world needs to stop giving him money and arm to the teeth against him, in a defensive position. The second Cold War is next unfortunately.
Agree to disagree.
I don't doubt it won't be easy, but it's a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the younger generations. They've enjoyed all the modern technology FB, Twitter,etc. They've tasted life as the West does, it's benefits, as well as its downside. As the elderly die off, the support for Putins style of communism will too. You can't kow tow that generation.
All it takes is for somebody in power, to see the direction the tide is going, and jump on board with it.
I don't envisage the end of Communism , but I can't see the next 'leader' getting away with what Putin has done. They can't be blind to the dangers that lies in one man having all the authority. There has to be a checks and balance, only in Moscow today it's gone out the window.
This user liked this post: bfcjg

Mala591
Posts: 1887
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:02 pm
Been Liked: 681 times
Has Liked: 428 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Mala591 » Thu May 05, 2022 12:59 pm

I’m afraid the only medium/long term solution to the fascist dictatorship in Russia is a civil war. Many brave Russian citizens will die fighting for a ‘free, independent and democratic’ country.

They’re just too frightened at the moment to rebel but their time will come and (when that moment in time does arrive) we must support them in every way we can.

Btw, I hope everyone is voting today in our free and democratic local elections!

ClaretLoup
Posts: 1828
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:35 pm
Been Liked: 534 times
Has Liked: 185 times
Location: Retirement Home in Suffolk

Re: Russia Invades

Post by ClaretLoup » Thu May 05, 2022 1:31 pm

Another thorough and thought provoking thread from Kalim Galeev in which he explains the ethnic mix of the Russian Army conscripts, i.e. mainly ethnic minorities from Asiatic and other rural regions which may explain the lack of resolve and fighting capabilities of the Russian army despite it's weight of numbers and equipment. Some of the one year conscripts become "contractors" and sign on for longer because of the money which is more than they would earn back home. Ethnic white Russians from St Petersburg and Moscow can avoid being conscripted by going to University.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... gr%5Etweet

The real victims are these ethnic groupings in the Russian Federation who seem powerless and also the objects of racism from Russia's white supremacist right wing types. He's scathing about the Russian "Liberals" who he thinks shares the same view as Putin et al of centralised control except with proper elections. He expounds that Russians largely regard Ukrainians as ethnically inferior as they are tainted with non Slavic blood and are just a troublesome minority to be put down. Ironically the people doing the putting down on behalf of the White Russian/Moscow/Petersburg elites are minorities from other parts of Russia. Galeev believes that the only real solution to putting a halt to Russian empire building is a fragmentation of the Russian Federation however due to the police state, this is unlikely to happen any time soon. There is a very interesting clip on the thread of people from Buryat an Siberian Asiatic area who seem to have twigged what is going on, however they seem to have a fatalistic sense of inevitability.

This really is a fascinating read where the author draws numerous perspectives both historical and present in a simple easy to understand manner to present a view of the current situation.

ClaretLoup
Posts: 1828
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:35 pm
Been Liked: 534 times
Has Liked: 185 times
Location: Retirement Home in Suffolk

Re: Russia Invades

Post by ClaretLoup » Thu May 05, 2022 1:47 pm

Kamil Galeev also has some interesting thoughts on parallels between Lenin and the Russian revolution and the situation today.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 6292978692

Soon Putin will have to decide whether to declare a war or not, at the moment Service personnel can actually resign from the Armed Forces as they are contractors or if they are conscrits they shouldn't be fighting in the Ukraine, however most of them are what Galeev calls "bumpkins" and they don't know their rights.

If Putin declares war and enacts mass mobilisation the situation changes, however he also creates a massive danger for himself as, by creating a mass call up he will be putting rifles in the hands of conscripts who may well not want to go to the Ukraine to get their arses shot off. Back in 1917 Lenin realised that by calling for an end to Russian participation in the war he could mobilise a following to overthrow the Government and impose a Soviet Bolshevik led set up and those conscripts need not go to the trenches and get shot up by Germans. Marx predicted that the revolution would occur in the most advance Industrialised nation, whereas Lenin was a lot more more pragmatic and realised that a few thousand peasants with rifles acting with self preservation at the forefront of their thoughts might be able to deliver the workers paradise, even though Russia was mainly a semi feudal country at the time.

TopCat
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:40 am
Been Liked: 170 times
Has Liked: 43 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by TopCat » Thu May 05, 2022 2:51 pm

I follow this thread with great interest from many that are providing us with detailed information.
A lot is backed up with links etc, but there is still much speculation.
My paranoia is heightened when there are talks/threats of nuclear missiles being used.
What are the thoughts about this?
Are there any expectations of Putin's plans to celebrate Victory Day on May 9th?

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 3:03 pm

TopCat wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 2:51 pm
I follow this thread with great interest from many that are providing us with detailed information.
A lot is backed up with links etc, but there is still much speculation.
My paranoia is heightened when there are talks/threats of nuclear missiles being used.
What are the thoughts about this?
Are there any expectations of Putin's plans to celebrate Victory Day on May 9th?
Russia know that if they use nukes, they cross a line, and that line could result in them dying. No one, not even Putin, thinks they are immortal

They are desperate for the internal consumption to be concentrating on everything but the war (their reports from the front line clearly show they haven't moved, and also there will be enough stuff getting through showing that things are not going well ie the Moskva sinking) and telling everyone each night that they can blow up the UK (without mentioning that the same would happen to them) will show Russians how strong they still are

No idea about May 9th at all, though I suspect they will declare some sort of victory in Mariupol, but whether that will be enough for them to come to the negotiating table with realistic propositions for peace is doubtful

Mind you, not sure the Ukrainian peace demands would be anymore realistic, which isn't helping (but are fully understandable because of what is happening every day)

What is flabbergasting (and I think shows a lot of the problems we in the West have with this) is that no one expected Russia to use the same tactics in Ukraine that it did in Syria, and having that brutally played out in front of us is really hardening attitudes to Russia in the West

I'm not sure where Russia goes from here, but its in serious danger of becoming some huge version of North Korea, and I don't think that is good for anyone

JarrowClaret
Posts: 1475
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:04 pm
Been Liked: 341 times
Has Liked: 194 times

Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Thu May 05, 2022 3:11 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 3:03 pm
Russia know that if they use nukes, they cross a line, and that line could result in them dying. No one, not even Putin, thinks they are immortal

They are desperate for the internal consumption to be concentrating on everything but the war (their reports from the front line clearly show they haven't moved, and also there will be enough stuff getting through showing that things are not going well ie the Moskva sinking) and telling everyone each night that they can blow up the UK (without mentioning that the same would happen to them) will show Russians how strong they still are

No idea about May 9th at all, though I suspect they will declare some sort of victory in Mariupol, but whether that will be enough for them to come to the negotiating table with realistic propositions for peace is doubtful

Mind you, not sure the Ukrainian peace demands would be anymore realistic, which isn't helping (but are fully understandable because of what is happening every day)

What is flabbergasting (and I think shows a lot of the problems we in the West have with this) is that no one expected Russia to use the same tactics in Ukraine that it did in Syria, and having that brutally played out in front of us is really hardening attitudes to Russia in the West

I'm not sure where Russia goes from here, but its in serious danger of becoming some huge version of North Korea, and I don't think that is good for anyone
Yes and they also talk about flooding the Uk with some mythical missile called Poseidon, as far as I can tell it is still in development and not part of there inventory at the minute.

The thing is the Russian media can talk about it, Putin may even want to do it but they all know if they ever pressed that button a HUGE portion of what they want to launch either won’t launch or fail before arming so I suspect they won’t try any Nuclear attack certainly a strategic 1.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 05, 2022 3:15 pm

JarrowClaret wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 3:11 pm
Yes and they also talk about flooding the Uk with some mythical missile called Poseidon, as far as I can tell it is still in development and not part of there inventory at the minute.

The thing is the Russian media can talk about it, Putin may even want to do it but they all know if they ever pressed that button a HUGE portion of what they want to launch either won’t launch or fail before arming so I suspect they won’t try any Nuclear attack certainly a strategic 1.
Yeah

Its all talk, and it would be amusing if it wasn't being happily swallowed wholesale by huge swathes of the Russian population

Post Reply