Russia Invades

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Taffy on the wing
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Thu Feb 16, 2023 8:07 pm

It must be pretty gruesome!....

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcmatt » Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:41 am

BBC program on the British soldiers in Ukraine
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... Ukraine%5D

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:49 am

bfcmatt wrote:
Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:41 am
BBC program on the British soldiers in Ukraine
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... Ukraine%5D
Ex British Soldiers Matt sorry for being pedantic but the way you worded suggests they are serving still which none are.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:28 am

I wonder how long the Russians will keep it together once the latest batch of tanks , weaponry , high tech etc hit the field ? Hard to say how much NATO are actively involved but I’d imagine ( aside from serious munitions supply) that the finest strategists , satellite mapping , premium use of drones and long range missiles are all very much “ on the ground “

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcmatt » Fri Feb 17, 2023 1:06 pm

JarrowClaret wrote:
Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:49 am
Ex British Soldiers Matt sorry for being pedantic but the way you worded suggests they are serving still which none are.
Fair point.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Crex901 » Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:59 am

saw a video on under ocean nukes that could flood US/UK coastlines with tsunamis. they have made 30 and put 15 in pacific and 15 in atlantic apparently. we think they have no where to go but pretty scary.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:42 am

Gasprom, increased supply through Ukraine by 9.5%.
Apologies link will not work from instagram.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:52 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:42 am
Gasprom, increased supply through Ukraine by 9.5%.
Apologies link will not work from instagram.
What does this mean? Russia are supplying more gas to the EU?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Loyalclaret » Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:10 pm

Crex901 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:59 am
saw a video on under ocean nukes that could flood US/UK coastlines with tsunamis. they have made 30 and put 15 in pacific and 15 in atlantic apparently. we think they have no where to go but pretty scary.
If true

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:16 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:42 am
Gasprom, increased supply through Ukraine by 9.5%.
Apologies link will not work from instagram.
It’s as well it’s been a ridiculously mild winter across pretty much the whole of Europe or demand would have forced some uncomfortable decisions on all sides I think .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:34 pm

Very massive warning not to watch if you don’t want to see actual bad war footage. It’s intense.

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/sta ... e3wQc1-5ow

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Longsider » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:36 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:34 pm
Very massive warning not to watch if you don’t want to see actual bad war footage. It’s intense.

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/sta ... e3wQc1-5ow
That's really full on. Like something out of World War One trench warfare

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Sat Feb 18, 2023 8:39 pm

10 x braver than me!........nightmarish stuff.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:53 am

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1 ... 7477587969

President Biden in a surprise visit to Kyiv

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Feb 20, 2023 5:52 pm

Part 2 of above video, no one gets hit, but Wow that guy is brave.

https://twitter.com/denestorteli/status ... 6IvODsTyWg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:32 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by 775claret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:45 pm

I like how the guy apologises for only 90% of rail services running on time yesterday.......in the middle of a war zone with a Presendential visit......something our rail companies would do well to take notice of.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:56 pm

775claret wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:45 pm
I like how the guy apologises for only 90% of rail services running on time yesterday.......in the middle of a war zone with a Presendential visit......something our rail companies would do well to take notice of.
I think I've posted it before on this thread, but Ukrainian Railways performance is actually better than most UK rail companies, which highlights the importance of the railway to Ukraine, and just how bad our railways have become (unfortunately)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:57 pm

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 4309782533

First confirmation that Ukraine has UK-60 Blackhawks

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lip » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:56 pm
I think I've posted it before on this thread, but Ukrainian Railways performance is actually better than most UK rail companies, which highlights the importance of the railway to Ukraine, and just how bad our railways have become (unfortunately)
Good job their railway system isn't run by Northern Fail then.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:50 pm

According to an expert analysis on Sky news this lunchtime, he reckoned that Russia will escalate their push and start to advance considerably in two weeks time.
Sorry I didn’t catch his name.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:05 pm

jos wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:50 pm
According to an expert analysis on Sky news this lunchtime, he reckoned that Russia will escalate their push and start to advance considerably in two weeks time.
Sorry I didn’t catch his name.
Sure they will make some gains, but at a cost that isn't worth the expenditure of equipment, ammo and troops

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:25 pm

To me the interesting rumor I've heard recently is Russia might make a large air offensive to finally gain air superiority. Supposedly they're willing to risk large losses to achieve this. According to the rumor they've been moving aircraft closer to the conflict zone in preparation. With the anniversary date of the invasion coming in a couple of days it's possible I suppose. I think if they did try this they would take bigger losses then they expect and it would escalate the chances of them receiving western aircraft.

But I guess we'll see if this rumor even has any basis of truth.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:45 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:25 pm
To me the interesting rumor I've heard recently is Russia might make a large air offensive to finally gain air superiority. Supposedly they're willing to risk large losses to achieve this. According to the rumor they've been moving aircraft closer to the conflict zone in preparation. With the anniversary date of the invasion coming in a couple of days it's possible I suppose. I think if they did try this they would take bigger losses then they expect and it would escalate the chances of them receiving western aircraft.

But I guess we'll see if this rumor even has any basis of truth.
I would suggest that’s a fools errand.

Ukraine now has many battalions trained and armed with Stingers and other manpads.

It now has air defence systems but no idea how many or where they are.

Providing multiple targets to troops who are trained with kit like they have will see a crazy amount of losses of fixed wing aircraft.

If there is a rumour the Ukrainians will know about it and will be ready. Recipe for disaster.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:28 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:45 pm
I would suggest that’s a fools errand.

Ukraine now has many battalions trained and armed with Stingers and other manpads.

It now has air defence systems but no idea how many or where they are.

Providing multiple targets to troops who are trained with kit like they have will see a crazy amount of losses of fixed wing aircraft.

If there is a rumour the Ukrainians will know about it and will be ready. Recipe for disaster.
Hah, I didn't say it was a good idea! Just what I've been reading. :) I agree with you 100%

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:20 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:28 pm
Hah, I didn't say it was a good idea! Just what I've been reading. :) I agree with you 100%
Never been in the military, just an armchair watcher. Though I did help make harpoons and cruise missiles.

I don’t see a strategy that Russia wins here.

Looks like Putin thinks the Wagner group are a threat so he is limiting its ammo so it’s getting smashed around Bakmut.

Internal politics is going to get them all killed.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:28 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:20 pm
Never been in the military, just an armchair watcher. Though I did help make harpoons and cruise missiles.

I don’t see a strategy that Russia wins here.

Looks like Putin thinks the Wagner group are a threat so he is limiting its ammo so it’s getting smashed around Bakmut.

Internal politics is going to get them all killed.
It's a corruption cluster...k of the highest order......with a lunatic running the show.
May they rot in Hell.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:23 pm

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1628695296552144896

I'm not saying Russia is running out of vehicles, but visual confirmation of one that was first produced in 1954

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:52 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:23 pm
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1628695296552144896

I'm not saying Russia is running out of vehicles, but visual confirmation of one that was first produced in 1954
Is that even a tank? Doesn’t look to have any guns?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:54 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:52 pm
Is that even a tank? Doesn’t look to have any guns?
very early APC I think

Pretty sure it wouldn't last long against anything with a gun above 30mm

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:56 pm

Honestly, if they drop their standards even more and get in WWII stuff, then I'm in my element!
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:56 pm
Honestly, if they drop their standards even more and get in WWII stuff, then I'm in my element!
If they drop much more I can see Ukraine going on the offensive armed with devil bangers
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:05 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:58 pm
If they drop much more I can see Ukraine going on the offensive armed with devil bangers
The way its going is that its not going to end anytime soon

Russia can't (or won't) stop and neither can Ukraine

It will go down to who can produce quality stuff faster and get it to the front line quicker

That should be the West, but it does all depend on willingness to set up the supply chain and logistics infrastructure to enable this to happen, and I'm not sure that all the countries are fully on board with that yet

Worth mentioning though that the strongest Ukraine backers in Europe (even without US/UK/Fra/Ger) have a greater GDP and industrial base than Russia does

Suspect that the eventual peace deal will be around original borders with some sort of agreement over Crimea

For Ukraine to agree to that, it would have to be allowed to join the EU (as I don't think NATO membership would be a goer)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:48 pm

Surely Putin couldn't agree such a deal and survive.

From a China perspective I can't see them wanting 'The West' to win this war. It would seem in their best interest for the war to go on without any clear victor which would keep Russia weak and also stress the US in particular. They then still get cheap energy, and become stronger against their main protagonist, the US. How to do that without making the US-China relationship dangerously unstable along with protecting their banking and economy is their big question.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Feb 23, 2023 5:22 pm

Hipper wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:48 pm
Surely Putin couldn't agree such a deal and survive.

From a China perspective I can't see them wanting 'The West' to win this war. It would seem in their best interest for the war to go on without any clear victor which would keep Russia weak and also stress the US in particular. They then still get cheap energy, and become stronger against their main protagonist, the US. How to do that without making the US-China relationship dangerously unstable along with protecting their banking and economy is their big question.
he can spin it anyway he wants

If the alternative is losing it to a Ukrainian military operation, then he might not have a lot of choice

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by box_of_frogs » Thu Feb 23, 2023 6:28 pm

Hipper wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:48 pm
Surely Putin couldn't agree such a deal and survive.

From a China perspective I can't see them wanting 'The West' to win this war. It would seem in their best interest for the war to go on without any clear victor which would keep Russia weak and also stress the US in particular. They then still get cheap energy, and become stronger against their main protagonist, the US. How to do that without making the US-China relationship dangerously unstable along with protecting their banking and economy is their big question.
Very good points on the Chinese, wouldn’t surprise me if you’re spot on.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:25 pm

Interesting article about how the rest of the world views the war.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... r-divided/

If this runs into a paywall challenge, let me know

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Leisure » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:26 pm

It does.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by box_of_frogs » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:27 pm

BayArea54 wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:25 pm
Interesting article about how the rest of the world views the war.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... r-divided/

If this runs into a paywall challenge, let me know
Paywall!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:42 pm

Capitalists!

Short of copy and paste the whole article, someone know of a better workaround?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:48 pm

Capitalists!

Short of copy and paste the fairly long article, anyone more skilled than myself know of a work around?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by BayArea54 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:49 pm

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:02 am

How Russia's 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure (in the first few days of the war):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664944

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am

Well here we are, a year to the day.

Never did I think for one minute that Ukraine could hold out for as long as it did. Those early days were frightening.

Still a helluva long way to go, but hopefully the second year of this war brings an end to the fighting and suffering, and Ukraine can restore its territorial integrity.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:39 am

TsarBomba wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am
Well here we are, a year to the day.

Never did I think for one minute that Ukraine could hold out for as long as it did. Those early days were frightening.

Still a helluva long way to go, but hopefully the second year of this war brings an end to the fighting and suffering, and Ukraine can restore its territorial integrity.
Agreed. Putin's belief that many/most Ukrainians were pro-Russian and wouldn't have the backbone to defend their country/culture was a mistake of the highest magnitude.
He also miscalculated the willingness of "the west" to intervene in support of Ukraine. I know Ukraine is always, and understandably, lobbying for more (planes/tanks etc) but I've been surprised by how much popular and governmental support there's been in the west- despite the Russian threats via nukes/ energy market manipulations etc.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:42 am

TsarBomba wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:28 am
Well here we are, a year to the day.

Never did I think for one minute that Ukraine could hold out for as long as it did. Those early days were frightening.

Still a helluva long way to go, but hopefully the second year of this war brings an end to the fighting and suffering, and Ukraine can restore its territorial integrity.
I think I was worried for about the first week, then I started to see the sheer amount of abandoned and knocked out Russian equipment online and started to see the videos of Russian units completely out of fuel in the middle of Ukraine and began to realise that if you invade a country of 100 million people, and that 100 million people don't want you there, then there is absolutely nothing you can do

Perfectly possible btw that Russia manages to capture some towns in Luhansk and Donestk, and perfectly possible that Ukraine might not be able retake its land, but the reality is that Russia is relying on 1970s/80s equipment, while Ukraine is getting more modern NATO stuff and will continue to get it

Anyone who knows anything about WWII will know that Russia cares very little for the lives of its soldiers, and they will continue to fling them in to avoid having to make the decision that this was a huge mistake but you do wonder at what stage that can continue

I don't share Tsars optomism sadly, but I don't see anything other than a Ukrainian victory and a huge Russian strategic defeat (which he has already suffered btw) but not in a timescale of the next year

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vino blanco » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:09 am

Ukraine's population is 44 million, Lancaster. Many of those are now refugees fleeing the war.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by TsarBomba » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:11 am

I agree Lancaster, realistically, we’ll likely still be here talking of war in 2-3 years, but we can remain hopeful nonetheless.

And on a side note- I’m not able to post nearly as often as I would like, for some reason, when I do try and post, the site says my IP address is blocked and it can take half a dozen attempts for me to get a post through.

But anyway, thanks to all those that keep this thread running and up to date, it’s much appreciated.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Dark Cloud » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:13 am

LeadBelly wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:39 am
Agreed. Putin's belief that many/most Ukrainians were pro-Russian and wouldn't have the backbone to defend their country/culture was a mistake of the highest magnitude.
He also miscalculated the willingness of "the west" to intervene in support of Ukraine. I know Ukraine is always, and understandably, lobbying for more (planes/tanks etc) but I've been surprised by how much popular and governmental support there's been in the west- despite the Russian threats via nukes/ energy market manipulations etc.
Very much agree with this. I think 3 huge factors came into play when the initial invasion took place which have made a massive difference. 1. The "West" collectively realised that they had to draw the line which they should have drawn in 2014 and the failure to do so then had simply allowed Russia to believe we'd be all noise and bluster, but no actual action. 2. The not unreal fear that a nuclear power might resort to using nuclear weapons if it was pushed hard enough was brushed aside and the view was taken that it was a risk worth taking to do what's right. 3. Russia believed it's battlefield equipment and hardware was miles, miles better than it's turned out to be. It's been shown to be largely dated, badly made and nothing like "as good as it looks". These 3 things have hit Russia squarely between the eyes and if it wasn't for 2 things the war would have ended in Ukraine's favour a long time ago. The 2 problems are the Russian leadership has got itself into this and simply can't get out without losing face and credibility within it's own population and secondly Russia has literally millions and millions of men at it's disposal to send onto the battlefield as basically cannon fodder and however many are killed, they'll just dupe and send more. Heavy losses don't faze the leadership as the mentality is simply to just send overwhelming numbers believing eventually that is the way to prevail and as we've seen many times refusing to fight, deciding to retreat or follow ridiculous battleground orders is punishable with summary execution. For the Russian rank and file it really is a no win situation.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:13 am

Vino blanco wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:09 am
Ukraine's population is 44 million, Lancaster. Many of those are now refugees fleeing the war.
Yeah, think I had a moment there!

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