Russia Invades

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elwaclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:58 am

There is a growing feeling in the West that despite the continued dominance in missiles, the war in Ukraine is now entering a new phase; Russia moving to the defensive. Several reports of serious questions now being asked by Russian troops sent unknowingly to Ukraine, from both Russian deserters and more importantly families at home. It seems Russia are struggling to plug the gaps in personnel and the strikes into Crimea suggest Ukraine are moving towards the offensive… it must be remembered Crimea is seen as no different to Donbas in its legitimacy as a target.

Added to that Russia are again ramping up the Nuclear threat, a sure sign the pressure is telling. The main fear among the Brass is that the EU will split over energy, but the reports from Norway this morning will further unsettle Russian hopes.

Obviously no-one can be sure of Russia’s genuine attitude to Nuclear war, but they are once agin talking about escalation.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:21 pm

'but the reports from Norway this morning will further unsettle Russian hopes.'

What reports from Norway?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:36 pm

One of the most disappointing things re: financial squeeze on Russia in todays FT stating that in total RUS have lost less than 3% in oil revenue and could even make more down the line with India /China et al. Seems also that the EU ( despite their rhetoric) are holding out till Feb before cranking up any oil sanctions and a growing body of EU big cheeses are v much in favour of softening this .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:54 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:58 pm

Two from ROB LEE:

Looks like Wagner sustained casualties in Popasna. Notably, photos were published a few days ago showing Yevgeny Prigozhin at a building in the city, which some dubbed as Wagner’s headquarters.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1558 ... hfnFU3iRzQ

A Russian Telegram channel confirms that there was a strike on a Wagner position in Popasna likely by HIMARS.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1558 ... hfnFU3iRzQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:14 am

Phillips OBrien: Commenting on reports that Russian officers have retreated across the river leaving troops to hols the line:

Has this been confirmed? Hard to hold the West Bank of the Dniepr if the Russian troops know their leadership has fled

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... fZGU2R5HqA

And yet the Russians are apparently preparing for one of their ‘referendums’ to justify their place in Donbas:

OSINTtechnical:

UK MOD- "It is likely that Russia is in the advanced planning stages to hold a referendum [on the DPR joining Russia], though it is unclear if the final decision to go ahead with a vote has yet been taken."

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... fZGU2R5HqA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:21 am

KYIV INDEPENDENT: 63 explosive devices were found in Sumy Oblast within a week.

State Emergency Service reported on Aug. 15 that the devices discovered include artillery and rocket shells, mortar, anti-tank mines, and grenades.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... fZGU2R5HqA

And…

According to Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky, Sumy Oblast is one of the most explosive-contaminated regions of Ukraine, with approximately 47% of the territories filled with such objects.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... fZGU2R5HqA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:23 am

You can sense the momentum is with Ukraine at the moment, when some of the countries over which they (Russia)have influence over realise they are not really that good an army there may well be moves to break free from Moscow.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:30 am

NEXTA: Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the heads of the Security Service of Ukraine departments in Kyiv, Lviv and Ternopil regions.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... fZGU2R5HqA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:34 am

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:23 am
You can sense the momentum is with Ukraine at the moment, when some of the countries over which they (Russia)have influence over realise they are not really that good an army there may well be moves to break free from Moscow.
Seems Russia are looking for justifications to call a ceasefire… the referendum idea I think shows that Russia expects when they get a return of 96% saying they want to be Russian, the West will throw up their hands and say “fair enough, you can have it” and then Russia can look for a ceasefire with a ‘win’ to report at home as justification.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:40 am

NEXTA: A kamikaze drone destroyed an observation tower in the Belgorod region.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... fZGU2R5HqA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:55 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:40 am
NEXTA: A kamikaze drone destroyed an observation tower in the Belgorod region.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... fZGU2R5HqA
Wouldn’t like to have been on watch when that fell!!
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:57 am

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:34 am
Seems Russia are looking for justifications to call a ceasefire… the referendum idea I think shows that Russia expects when they get a return of 96% saying they want to be Russian, the West will throw up their hands and say “fair enough, you can have it” and then Russia can look for a ceasefire with a ‘win’ to report at home as justification.
I honestly don’t think that Russia expect a rigged referendum to damage the Wests resolve. I do t think the West will stop until they win Crimea back, nevermind allowing them to take more territory.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:04 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:23 am
You can sense the momentum is with Ukraine at the moment, when some of the countries over which they (Russia)have influence over realise they are not really that good an army there may well be moves to break free from Moscow.
Agree with this. There’ll be a tipping point, I think. We’re not at it yet, but there will come a time when the world realises that Russians army isn’t actually that good (or has become so significantly debilitated that it’s not anymore) and Putin starts to get cornered.

This will be other disputed territories being attacked, controlled countries listening their ties, etc. I just have a funny feeling China might turn on them when it comes to the crunch - ie they realise they’re so weakened that either they support them & destroy their relationships with the bigger, more prosperous Western economies, or stick the knife in & bring it all to a close.

The best chance for Putin is that he realises which way the wind is blowing and withdraws before the consequences become too severe.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:18 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:57 am
I honestly don’t think that Russia expect a rigged referendum to damage the Wests resolve. I do t think the West will stop until they win Crimea back, nevermind allowing them to take more territory.
You have more faith in Russian expectations of the West than I do, sadly. It worked for them in Hungry in 1956. I think it is too soon to call the full true strategic aims of the (full) Western alliance: While I cannot see them falling for the ‘referendum’, neither am I sure all nations will back Ukraine taking back Crimea. To do so may be more of a defeat than Putin is willing to except… which for obvious reasons becomes very dangerous. Though I agree I’d like to see the debacle of the theft of Crimea overturned.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:24 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:55 am
Wouldn’t like to have been on watch when that fell!!
Just imagine being stuck up there when the strike hit, and then hearing the metal start to buckle knowing you had no way of escape… and awaiting the inevitable, it must have been horrific.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:39 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:18 pm
You have more faith in Russian expectations of the West than I do, sadly. It worked for them in Hungry in 1956. I think it is too soon to call the full true strategic aims of the (full) Western alliance: While I cannot see them falling for the ‘referendum’, neither am I sure all nations will back Ukraine taking back Crimea. To do so may be more of a defeat than Putin is willing to except… which for obvious reasons becomes very dangerous. Though I agree I’d like to see the debacle of the theft of Crimea overturned.
I think he may have expected old methods to work at the outset but very unlikely he would think that will wash now.

I would say this is a war Western leaders never wanted, where there are severe consequences for all, and would love it to end, but also that they know weakening support and allowing any kind of win for Russia now is unthinkable. I also think many of them will see the consolation prize as a super power being hugely debilitated meaning they are less of a threat for generations.

There’s photographic evidence of 5000 pieces of machinery destroyed in Ukraine. Some of that may be duplicates, Ukrainian weapons, maybe even faked but one way or the other, they’ve lost a lot. And it’s not quick or cheap to replace it.

In that sense I think the West are likely quite happy to draw this out and keep depleting them.

I expect you’re right though, if it comes to it and Ukraine win back their mainland and/or Russia give in, I think Zelensky will come under pressure not to open old Crimea wounds.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:45 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:39 pm
I think he may have expected old methods to work at the outset but very unlikely he would think that will wash now.

I would say this is a war Western leaders never wanted, where there are severe consequences for all, and would love it to end, but also that they know weakening support and allowing any kind of win for Russia now is unthinkable. I also think many of them will see the consolation prize as a super power being hugely debilitated meaning they are less of a threat for generations.

There’s photographic evidence of 5000 pieces of machinery destroyed in Ukraine. Some of that may be duplicates, Ukrainian weapons, maybe even faked but one way or the other, they’ve lost a lot. And it’s not quick or cheap to replace it.

In that sense I think the West are likely quite happy to draw this out and keep depleting them.

I expect you’re right though, if it comes to it and Ukraine win back their mainland and/or Russia give in, I think Zelensky will come under pressure not to open old Crimea wounds.
Agree with pretty much everything here, except the contempt Russia holds for Western ‘political short termism’ meaning they may expect (some in) the West to want a way out. It is also questionable if the West would push Russia so hard as to make Putin’s paranoia worse. One thing we know is the opposition to the War within Russia is getting stronger and more outspoken, though it is not yet organised, to any great degree.

Are the West ready for a tug-of-war for influence in effecting a ‘friendly’ overthrow, as even that would lead to instability and raise the prospect of a volatile Eastern Europe for decades, as both the West and China look to increase their influence in the region? For me these are the decisions that will need to be made at some point certainly, but which path will be chosen is anyones guess at the moment.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:49 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:33 pm

KYIV Independent: One person killed in Russian attack on Kharkiv.

According to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov, Russian forces shelled the city's Saltivka residential neighborhood.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:34 pm

REUTERS: Putin: Russia is ready to arm its allies

https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:39 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:34 pm
REUTERS: Putin: Russia is ready to arm its allies

https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status ... DoN-adSAkg
"(We) are ready to offer our allies the most modern types of weapons, from small arms to armored vehicles and artillery to combat aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles"

That's laughable
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:49 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:39 pm
"(We) are ready to offer our allies the most modern types of weapons, from small arms to armored vehicles and artillery to combat aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles"

That's laughable
Interestingly Russia just bought hundreds of drone from Iran. Obviously because the Russian ones a superior!!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:50 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:39 pm
"(We) are ready to offer our allies the most modern types of weapons, from small arms to armored vehicles and artillery to combat aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles"

That's laughable
Cannot disagree, he’s attempts to worry/influence the Western leaders are becoming more and more desperate and less and less realistic.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:37 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:34 pm
REUTERS: Putin: Russia is ready to arm its allies

https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status ... DoN-adSAkg
If Russia has such weapons, you might expect them to use them to arm their own troops :lol:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:37 pm

FMn4cVkXsAweShz.jpg
FMn4cVkXsAweShz.jpg (53.21 KiB) Viewed 2186 times
elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:34 pm
REUTERS: Putin: Russia is ready to arm its allies

https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status ... DoN-adSAkg
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:47 pm

NEXTA: Three more captured foreign servicemen of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine face the death penalty
These are citizens of Croatia, Sweden and the UK. They will be "tried" by the militants of the "DPR".

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:49 pm

Rob Lee: It appears the KNAUF factory in Soledar was captured by Russian forces. Apparently it was taken by Wagner and LNR forces are now holding it.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1559 ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:51 pm

BBC: on the hit to Wagner HQ (presumably the one first reported on her in yesterday’s links).

Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1559 ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:53 pm

KYIV Independent: Governor: More than 5,575 civilians evacuated from Donetsk Oblast.

Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said three-quarters of the population has been evacuated from Ukrainian-controlled territories in the oblast and mandatory evacuation continues.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:57 pm

ROB LEE (retweet): The Ukrainian Air Force KpsZSU has just received 4 helicopters donated by Latvia - soon to be included in the aviation fleet of the Ukrainian Army.

https://twitter.com/pabriks/status/1559 ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:04 pm

KYIV Independent: Melitopol Mayor: City likely to be without heat in winter.

Russian occupiers will not have the time to repair heating infrastructure by the beginning of winter, leaving residents without heat for the cold season, Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Russian-occupied Melitopol, warned.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... DoN-adSAkg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Longsider » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:21 pm

I still dip into this thread regularly for updates. Thanks for those who regularly update.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:22 am

Ukrainian forces aren't yet running out of prime targets. Some fireworks in Dzhankoi in north east Crimea (quite a big rail/road junction with (I think) an air base also).
If you search "Dzhankoi" on twitter, there are quite a few different pictures of this from various sources this morning, looks like several targets may've been hit, certainly looks like some decent amount of ammo went up.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Dzhankoi&src=typed_query

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:34 am

This is probably the clearest view; looks like maybe 3 hits with definitely ammo on the right - given the now familiar fireworks display.
https://twitter.com/LlopisMarta95/statu ... 2352181250

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:23 am

Wow, think that’s the biggest firework display I’ve seen.

Another careless smoker in Crimea? :lol: :lol:

What I cannot fathom is how they’ve still got any ammo left? They must surely be running low? Can’t require many more of these attacks before they are so weakened that Ukraine can claim back their land unchallenged.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Tribesmen » Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:59 am

Not sure i would really want to be sat in a car filming that lot going off .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:47 pm

NEXTA: Ukrainian military unit operating behind enemy lines was responsible for the blasts in Dzhankoi district. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that the episode was an "act of sabotage," The New York Times reported, citing a high-ranking Ukrainian official.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... zrYxb2mptA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:59 pm

KYIV Independent: Defense minister: War won't freeze but intensity of conflict may decrease due to fewer resources.

Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told the Voice of America that Russian troops had lost at least a third of their combat potential, including 30% of their elite troops.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:04 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:47 pm
NEXTA: Ukrainian military unit operating behind enemy lines was responsible for the blasts in Dzhankoi district. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that the episode was an "act of sabotage," The New York Times reported, citing a high-ranking Ukrainian official.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... zrYxb2mptA
Just how pathetic are the Russians, invade a country slaughter children, rape, destroy hospitals and schools then moan when Ukraine fight back.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:25 pm

OTHER NEWS (?)

REUTERS: China to send troops to Russia for 'Vostok' exercise

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1559 ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:28 pm

NEW VOICE OF UKRAINE: After fresh explosions rocked Crimea, a record traffic jam of 38,000 cars occurred at the approach road to the bridge towards Russia.

https://twitter.com/newvoiceukraine/sta ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:29 pm

NEXTA: The head of #Luhansk regional military administration, Serhiy Hayday, said that the #Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed the SSU building in occupied Lysychansk, where the invaders had set up a headquarters.

According to Hayday, up to 100 occupiers were killed.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:10 pm

NEW YORK TIMES: Russia is a major diamond producer and earns billions of dollars from the gems that other nations say help finance its war in Ukraine. Now there is a growing push to officially label Russian exports as "conflict diamonds."

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1559 ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:14 pm

KEIV Independent: Reznikov: Ukraine has not lost any US-provided HIMARS.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Voice of America that contrary to Russia's repeated claims, Kyiv still has all the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. As of Aug. 1, the US has delivered 16 HIMARS to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:16 pm

NEXTA: A man in #Luhansk came to the kindergarten for his child, where the "defenders of the #Russian world" were already waiting for him.

Then, everything was just like in the manuals: forceful detention and "voluntary" escort to the front.

Source: telegram Denis Kazansky

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... Dn61NkpdBg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:25 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:10 pm
NEW YORK TIMES: Russia is a major diamond producer and earns billions of dollars from the gems that other nations say help finance its war in Ukraine. Now there is a growing push to officially label Russian exports as "conflict diamonds."

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1559 ... Dn61NkpdBg
Would that be similar to the blood diamonds situation?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:34 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:25 pm
Would that be similar to the blood diamonds situation?
In all honesty your guess is as good as mine, but I would think so.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:41 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:34 pm
In all honesty your guess is as good as mine, but I would think so.
They're similar terms but differ slightly from what I can see, but various media outlets are interchanging the terms.

Russia seem to make 2.25 billion $ from diamond sales, that's quite a hefty amount to lose.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:46 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:41 pm
They're similar terms but differ slightly from what I can see, but various media outlets are interchanging the terms.

Russia seem to make 2.25 billion $ from diamond sales, that's quite a hefty amount to lose.
Agree, but I guess it would depend in China and especially South Africa agreement and participation, far from Guaranteed. Without it diamonds will still flow out of Russia, washed and sold through their trades.
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