Russia Invades

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welsbyswife
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by welsbyswife » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:01 pm

Why would Kate have to back up her opinion any more than anyone else? Nobody knows for certain what has happened and it's not obviously in Russia's advantage to blow it up as she says. Lots of suggestions that Ukrainian special ops forces are getting training from the Americans and conducting exercises in Russia so it's not out of the realms of possibility.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:04 pm

Hipper wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:46 pm
In whose interest would this damage be?

Whilst I'm sure the Russians are capable of this sort of damage - remember the underwater tracks off the Swedish coast some years ago for example - it seems an unnecessary act - they've already closed off the NS1 pipeline, and NS2 isn't going to be used for the foreseeable future.

It's a strange incident.
I think (and this is just guesswork) that they can still raise the revenue through the gas pipelines through main land Europe, and they know that these two pipelines will decline in use over time, and they can claim they are not using economic blackmail on Europe because they are still supplying gas

They hope to spook the markets and drive up gas prices again

However, just heard on the radio that today is the inauguration of a new pipeline from Norway to Poland which I think seals the deal about who is responsible

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:11 pm

welsbyswife wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:01 pm
Why would Kate have to back up her opinion any more than anyone else? Nobody knows for certain what has happened and it's not obviously in Russia's advantage to blow it up as she says. Lots of suggestions that Ukrainian special ops forces are getting training from the Americans and conducting exercises in Russia so it's not out of the realms of possibility.
Because its what Russia will be saying

And with the greatest respect in the world, you think that US special forces are training Ukrainian troops to blow up Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2?

Absolutely guarantee that the internet will be flooded with people claiming this in the next 24 hours btw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by welsbyswife » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:24 pm

I'm not saying that is what has happened. Just using it as an example. What I am saying is that KateR put a theory forward and you said she'd need to back it up. But the reality is that it is hard to work out what has happened so Kate's view is no less valid than anyone else's.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:28 pm

welsbyswife wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:24 pm
I'm not saying that is what has happened. Just using it as an example. What I am saying is that KateR put a theory forward and you said she'd need to back it up. But the reality is that it is hard to work out what has happened so Kate's view is no less valid than anyone else's.
No one said it isn't. but to claim its been done by someone other than Russia requires (IMHO of course!) something to back it up

No biggy really

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:31 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:50 pm
You'll have to back that up Kate

The ruptures are at the bottom of the Baltic sea, and the only way that can happen is by explosives planted by divers from either a boat or a sub, or directly from a sub

I don't see how Ukraine can do that when they haven't got a coastline in the Baltic

Course, there are loads of reports on the various Navy twitter accounts over the past few years about Russian submarines and surface vessels hanging around critical underwater infrastructure for Europe, including gas pipelines
I'm not accusing Ukraine of doing it, rather it suits them more than it does Russia and if we want to delve into conspiracy theories, then the Baltic companies taking up the sale of more gas to Europe would also benefit more than Russia would. As it seals the additional gas supplies, due to NS 1/2 shutdown in August, plus these additional revenues for a substantial period now.

In terms of how, any dive boat hired with an ROV could plant explosives easily, doesn't have to be a naval vessel, but again this is just an explanation of how it "could" be accomplished. However, I come back to the who would benefit the most, in my opinion, Russia would benefit the least and therefore seems unlikely to me. Of course it's possible they did it but I would not jump to conclusions that they did so easily, because they are least suspect to me, they own the pipeline and will be responsible for repairs, this will be costly and does nothing to aid them.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:36 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:38 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:31 pm
I'm not accusing Ukraine of doing it, rather it suits them more than it does Russia and if we want to delve into conspiracy theories, then the Baltic companies taking up the sale of more gas to Europe would also benefit more than Russia would. As it seals the additional gas supplies, due to NS 1/2 shutdown in August, plus these additional revenues for a substantial period now.

In terms of how, any dive boat hired with an ROV could plant explosives easily, doesn't have to be a naval vessel, but again this is just an explanation of how it "could" be accomplished. However, I come back to the who would benefit the most, in my opinion, Russia would benefit the least and therefore seems unlikely to me. Of course it's possible they did it but I would not jump to conclusions that they did so easily, because they are least suspect to me, they own the pipeline and will be responsible for repairs, this will be costly and does nothing to aid them.
Do you notice that today is the inauguration of the Norway-Poland gas pipeline?

Far too many coincidences for me to think its anyone but Russia

But Welsby is right, everyone is entitled to an opinion on this thread and I didn't mean to suggest otherwise

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:42 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:10 pm
https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status ... 8464812033

Russian Pantsir missile system targeting software might need some work
That’s so unbelievable it’s surely some prank?!?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:48 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:42 pm
That’s so unbelievable it’s surely some prank?!?
Only guessing, but has to be a malfunction somewhere

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:50 pm

I don't have twitter so unfortunately can't see as the computer I'm on won't open things like twitter/FB, etc. I get all my social media through UTC lol.

I've been involved in the O&G business for decades including offshore, pipeline, underwater well heads, etc. in design, operations and proving & troubleshooting. I've worked with diveboat captains, various drilling rigs and using explosives for certain activities, admittedly I've not been offshore for a decade and now I'm fully engrossed in alternative energy development. I do think I know a thing or two though and it simply makes no sense to me to blow up your own pipeline when you have full control over everything entering it from 0 to 100% production. However, from a political point of view it could be they want to deflect and appropriate blame to the West/Ukraine but I still don't see the advantage over the cost in that kind of play so for now my theory is Russia didn't do it.

Also, if I owned assets like NS 1/2, which are extremely costly things to design and build, then I might just want some of my war ships checking/protecting them, certainly not damaging them.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:36 pm
https://twitter.com/poppoppopkt/status/ ... 8278276096

Top, top, top trolling
What flag is that?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:54 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:38 pm
Do you notice that today is the inauguration of the Norway-Poland gas pipeline?

Far too many coincidences for me to think its anyone but Russia

But Welsby is right, everyone is entitled to an opinion on this thread and I didn't mean to suggest otherwise
Norway & Poland would gain far more from this action than Russia will, in my opinion that conspiracy is far more viable than yours, until you can come up with some rationale as to why it benefits Russia in any way shape or form. As I mentioned I can not access twitter

For what it's worth, I totally discount it as being an accident and am 99.99% certain it is some deliberate act, by parties as of yet unknown.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:55 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:50 pm
I don't have twitter so unfortunately can't see as the computer I'm on won't open things like twitter/FB, etc. I get all my social media through UTC lol.

I've been involved in the O&G business for decades including offshore, pipeline, underwater well heads, etc. in design, operations and proving & troubleshooting. I've worked with diveboat captains, various drilling rigs and using explosives for certain activities, admittedly I've not been offshore for a decade and now I'm fully engrossed in alternative energy development. I do think I know a thing or two though and it simply makes no sense to me to blow up your own pipeline when you have full control over everything entering it from 0 to 100% production. However, from a political point of view it could be they want to deflect and appropriate blame to the West/Ukraine but I still don't see the advantage over the cost in that kind of play so for now my theory is Russia didn't do it.

Also, if I owned assets like NS 1/2, which are extremely costly things to design and build, then I might just want some of my war ships checking/protecting them, certainly not damaging them.
I think you've nailed it in your 2nd paragraph - they can say "Why would we do this?"

Thing is, and I'm willing to bet on this, you can bet whichever Spetsnatz unit did this, they will have left some crucial evidence behind that will prove it was Russia that did it

See the incompetence of the two operatives who did the Salisbury poisonings for starters

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:56 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:54 pm
Norway & Poland would gain far more from this action than Russia will, in my opinion that conspiracy is far more viable than yours, until you can come up with some rationale as to why it benefits Russia in any way shape or form. As I mentioned I can not access twitter

For what it's worth, I totally discount it as being an accident and am 99.99% certain it is some deliberate act, by parties as of yet unknown.
Norway and Poland conspired to blow up Nordstream 1 and 2 is a theory that I'm only to see on the more blatant Russian fan boy accounts I feel!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:02 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:50 pm
I don't have twitter so unfortunately can't see as the computer I'm on won't open things like twitter/FB, etc. I get all my social media through UTC lol.

I've been involved in the O&G business for decades including offshore, pipeline, underwater well heads, etc. in design, operations and proving & troubleshooting. I've worked with diveboat captains, various drilling rigs and using explosives for certain activities, admittedly I've not been offshore for a decade and now I'm fully engrossed in alternative energy development. I do think I know a thing or two though and it simply makes no sense to me to blow up your own pipeline when you have full control over everything entering it from 0 to 100% production. However, from a political point of view it could be they want to deflect and appropriate blame to the West/Ukraine but I still don't see the advantage over the cost in that kind of play so for now my theory is Russia didn't do it.

Also, if I owned assets like NS 1/2, which are extremely costly things to design and build, then I might just want some of my war ships checking/protecting them, certainly not damaging them.
This makes a lot of sense to me.

When Russia have full control of supply at source, the only reason I can see them wanting to do this is to avoid the political fallout.

But then I think Putin quite likes wielding his power and control over the world, so that would seem strange too.

Unless, countries pay for what is discharged from Russia vs what they receive? If they are responsible for maintaining the lines, Russia could argue they are owed the money without them actually receiving the goods? Win:win for Russia in that situation?

Assuming that’s not the case though, I would say this is damaging for Russia.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:09 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:02 pm
This makes a lot of sense to me.

When Russia have full control of supply at source, the only reason I can see them wanting to do this is to avoid the political fallout.

But then I think Putin quite likes wielding his power and control over the world, so that would seem strange too.

Unless, countries pay for what is discharged from Russia vs what they receive? If they are responsible for maintaining the lines, Russia could argue they are owed the money without them actually receiving the goods? Win:win for Russia in that situation?

Assuming that’s not the case though, I would say this is damaging for Russia.
I'll say again, Russia can't supply gas to the West if Nordstream is damaged, and that means the West will have a potentially difficult winter, just as its clear Ukraine is winning the war v Russia, which is 100% what Russia want to do, and now no one can accuse Russia of strangling the Wests economy or enforcing an economic blockade, and they still get the money rolling in from the gas pipelines that run from Russia to Europe on the land

Win/win for Russia

Be some interesting theories floating around though!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:14 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:54 pm
Norway & Poland would gain far more from this action than Russia will, in my opinion that conspiracy is far more viable than yours, until you can come up with some rationale as to why it benefits Russia in any way shape or form. As I mentioned I can not access twitter

For what it's worth, I totally discount it as being an accident and am 99.99% certain it is some deliberate act, by parties as of yet unknown.
Hi Kate, my thoughts on NS 1 and NS 2 "suffering leaks:" NS2 - not been commissioned, so just a "side issue." NS1 Russia has shut it down before claiming "maintenance" required to pumps etc. Germany's response has been that the "maintenance" that was claimed was minor and not sufficient to shut 100% of pipeline down.

My speculation - maybe there will be some reports in the media along these lines, later - is that Germany and Russia have been discussing contractual performance, including that the shut down for maintenance should now have been completed. So, next step is for the pipeline to suffer further (unexplained) damage which puts it out of operation for extended period. This new damage would fall under force majeure clauses, so Russia has no obligation to Germany for non-delivery. Conclusion: Russia has organised the pipeline leaks, including putting NS2 out of action, in case it was suggested supplies could be delivered to Germany via NS2.

Of course, current market price for natgas jumps on this disruption - having fallen significantly over recent weeks.

Coincidence with Norway-Poland interconnector opening? No, just a reminder that critical infrastructure can be targeted by "unfriendly agents." However, NATO and all militaries will already be aware of this, thus not it itself a change or critical factor.

Just my speculation, of course.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Stayingup » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:20 pm

Who has blown up the gas pipelines in the Baltic?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by evensteadiereddie » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:23 pm

Den Perry did it.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Nori1958 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:39 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:09 pm
I'll say again, Russia can't supply gas to the West if Nordstream is damaged, and that means the West will have a potentially difficult winter, just as its clear Ukraine is winning the war v Russia, which is 100% what Russia want to do, and now no one can accuse Russia of strangling the Wests economy or enforcing an economic blockade, and they still get the money rolling in from the gas pipelines that run from Russia to Europe on the land

Win/win for Russia

Be some interesting theories floating around though!
Very interesting mate

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Stayingup » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:39 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:23 pm
Den Perry did it.
I thought it was Grandmaster Glitch.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:02 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:14 pm
Hi Kate, my thoughts on NS 1 and NS 2 "suffering leaks:" NS2 - not been commissioned, so just a "side issue." NS1 Russia has shut it down before claiming "maintenance" required to pumps etc. Germany's response has been that the "maintenance" that was claimed was minor and not sufficient to shut 100% of pipeline down. I INCLUDED NS 2 ONLY BECAUSE IT WAS PART OF THE DISCUSSION. I TOTALLY AGREE THE MAINTENANCE WAS JUST AN EXCUSE & THEY COULD HAVE PRODUCED IF THEY WANTED.

My speculation - maybe there will be some reports in the media along these lines, later - is that Germany and Russia have been discussing contractual performance, including that the shut down for maintenance should now have been completed. So, next step is for the pipeline to suffer further (unexplained) damage which puts it out of operation for extended period. This new damage would fall under force majeure clauses, so Russia has no obligation to Germany for non-delivery. Conclusion: Russia has organised the pipeline leaks, including putting NS2 out of action, in case it was suggested supplies could be delivered to Germany via NS2. FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSES WORK BOTH WAYS, IN SEVERAL DECADES I HAVE NEVER SEEN A CONTRACT EXECUTED THAT DIDN'T INCLUDE FM FOR BOTH PARTIES AND EVERY SINGLE TIME WAR WAS INCLUDED. EITHER PARTY COULD HAVE CLAIMED FM AT ANY TIME. ABSOLUTELY ZERO NEED FOR RUSSIA TO DAMAGE IT's OWN INFRASTRUCTURE, & IF I WAS DOING IT IT WOULD BE ON LAND, NOT UNDERWATER.

Of course, current market price for natgas jumps on this disruption - having fallen significantly over recent weeks. THEY'LL GO UP AND DOWN AS A MARKET REACTION

Coincidence with Norway-Poland interconnector opening? No, just a reminder that critical infrastructure can be targeted by "unfriendly agents." However, NATO and all militaries will already be aware of this, thus not it itself a change or critical factor. YES EVERYONE IS AWARE & IT SEEMS A FEW ARE POINTING THE FINGER DIRECTLY AT RUSSIA, GAS WAS NOT FLOWING, GAS WOULD NEVER FLOW IF RUSSIA DIDN'T WANT IT TO SO WHY SABOTAGE YOUR OWN INFRASTRUCE, FOR ME ONLY FOR POLITICAL GAIN. I'M YET TO SEE WHAT THAT ACTUALLY IS BUT I KNOW THERE ARE FAR MORE DEVIOUS MINDS AT WORK THAN MINE

Just my speculation, of course.

Hi Paul,
my thoughts on yours, interesting times

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:42 pm

jedi_master wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:54 am
Why would he attack Ukraine with a tactical nuke if he sees at least a fifth of it as ‘Russia’? Where would he target with such a device? If it was the areas under assault (I.e, the East and South) which he is in the process of annexing, would that not be a nuke dropped on his ‘own people’ and ‘own country’?

Unless you’re implying he will nuke Kyiv?
Think he makes the point better than me.

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1 ... eBHEThQ0wQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:42 pm

dushanbe wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:47 am
Russia can deploy 'tactical' nuclear weapons of between 5 and 50 kilotons. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 15 kilotons, so please don't down play the destructive capability of these tactical nuclear weapons like they are some kind of souped up conventional bomb, if used it changes everything.
Think he makes the point I was making better than I did.

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1 ... eBHEThQ0wQ

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:47 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:58 pm
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 0877177858

Damage to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipes extensive and almost certainly sabotage

Russia determined not to go down quietly it would seem
They are trying to blame America from what I can see on Twitter.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:50 pm
You'll have to back that up Kate

The ruptures are at the bottom of the Baltic sea, and the only way that can happen is by explosives planted by divers from either a boat or a sub, or directly from a sub

I don't see how Ukraine can do that when they haven't got a coastline in the Baltic

Course, there are loads of reports on the various Navy twitter accounts over the past few years about Russian submarines and surface vessels hanging around critical underwater infrastructure for Europe, including gas pipelines
Ukraine has no subs or ships to do it, so it’s not them.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:54 pm

Quite a big broken pipe!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-eur ... st+type%5D

How are these gas pipes protected? Surely they must have sections that can be closed off for maintenance or in case of a leakage? Otherwise the whole pipe will fill with sea water (assuming the gas is not under such pressure as to keep sea water out).

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:57 pm

A tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) or non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW)[1] is a nuclear weapon which is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territory. Generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war.

Tactical nukes can be dialed down to be what they want, from 0.1, 0.3, 1, 5, 10, etc. so they don't have to be anywhere near what happened in Japan with a 15 & 21 bomb. The radiation however will kill so many, even if the explosive power is used tactically on a small target, definitely need to get the weather and wind right if they do use one on the front, or it will kill more Russians, Russian supporting people.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:06 pm

Quite a big broken pipe!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-eur ... st+type%5D

How are these gas pipes protected? Surely they must have sections that can be closed off for maintenance or in case of a leakage? Otherwise the whole pipe will fill with sea water (assuming the gas is not under such pressure as to keep sea water out).

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:07 pm

Interesting that this new Norway-Poland pipe runs near Bornholm where the Nord Stream leaks occurred.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/bal ... -on-russia

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:01 pm

Ukrainian troops capture Russians in a forest:

https://mobile.twitter.com/raging545/st ... 8974377994

If that’s that their sleeping arrangements are (sheets, basically, not even a proper tent), this winter is going to be very tough for them.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:20 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:51 pm
Ukraine has no subs or ships to do it, so it’s not them.
so they, or anyone else, could not hire someone to do it, I see, we can discount them obviously :roll:

I notice the CIA are saying they warned Germany about this in the summer, nothing in what I read regarding whom they were warning about but assume it must have been Russia.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:44 pm

Hipper wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:06 pm
Quite a big broken pipe!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-eur ... st+type%5D

How are these gas pipes protected? Surely they must have sections that can be closed off for maintenance or in case of a leakage? Otherwise the whole pipe will fill with sea water (assuming the gas is not under such pressure as to keep sea water out).
Pipelines over land typically have valve stations every so often, so they can be isolated by sections, however most marine pipelines have no valve stations except at the initiating point if it is a subsea template with wells producing and at platforms or landfall, the lines from subsea templates are usually referred to as flowlines rather than pipelines. They have to withstand the pressure and corrosion, oil pipelines typically don't move but gas pipelines can, however the coating can be heavy enough, concrete in many cases, to keep them in place. Depth has a bearing on wall thickness due to obvious pressures being used. Usually deign will take into account having to depressure the pipelines by installing venting systems at either end, I've never seen or worked on any pipeline that had valves to isolate sections, sabotage was never a real factor in designing them. Valves themselves in a long submarine pipeline become a leak risk in addition to the added costs for designing and constructing/installing them with the obvious requirement for being able to operate them when you should need them.

So no, they don't have sections that can be closed off.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:58 am

Not posting a link to this as I think it’s against the Geneva Convention.

It’s a video all over Twitter of a Russian who was mobilised on I think the 21st sep and is already a POW. he is holding his passport and draft paperwork.
There are also videos of lots of dead soldiers that are claimed to be new conscripts, looking at the clothing, it seems fairly new so could be true.

Poor souls.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:30 am

On gas supplies, I understand that there is still gas arriving from Russia to Europe via the land pipelines.

Map as at 2020:

https://w3ask.com/map-gas-pipelines-europe/

If Russia want to stop all their gas supplies to Europe (particularly Western Europe) as a war tactic - a good one from their point of view - it would seem the next target would be the one through Belarus.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:32 am

It would make sense.
Ukraine are pushing a spearhead either side of Lyman, so that is bound to be where they are reinforcing troops.
Complete madness that you would send such unprepared troops into that kind of war zone, against battle hardened, well equipped, well motivated soldiers.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Top Claret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:48 am

The gas line leak will no doubt be Russian sabotage just another weapon to destabilise European economies, who have little energy security after putting all their eggs into the Nett Zero basket along with dependency on Russia

I wouldn't be surprised if the gas lines from Norway are now on the Russian agenda, the **** will hit the fan if that happened the price of gas could easily double

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:07 am

If the Russians are truly sending raw conscripts to the front line against well equipped battle hardened troops there is only one outcome , which ( again ,if true ) couid essiky become a rout .Unlike in wwII Vlad doesn’t have 20+ million men and armour as cannon fodder . Let’s hope UKR are given the goods to finish the job .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:16 am

Warnings of unidentified drones flying near Norwegian oil rigs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-09-26/

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by 1882Clarets1882 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:30 am

February 2022. "If Russia invades , there will be no Nord 2". Biden.

https://youtu.be/sep08UdBEf0

Russia has no need to sabotage . It could simply turn off the taps

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:32 am

1882Clarets1882 wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:30 am
February 2022. "If Russia invades , there will be no Nord 2". Biden.

https://youtu.be/sep08UdBEf0
There is always a need to point out that someone saying something won't happen does not automatically mean they have blown it up

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by 1882Clarets1882 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:35 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:32 am
There is always a need to point out that someone saying something won't happen does not automatically mean they have blown it up
Correct. But why would Russia do it? It makes no sense at all. Also, the journo asks how he'd do it as its on German territory. Nonetheless he's confident it won't happen.

US naval fleet present in baltic sea September 2022 . USS kearserge.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Rumbletonk » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:39 am

NewClaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:01 pm
Ukrainian troops capture Russians in a forest:

https://mobile.twitter.com/raging545/st ... 8974377994

If that’s that their sleeping arrangements are (sheets, basically, not even a proper tent), this winter is going to be very tough for them.
That is just incredible

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:46 am

1882Clarets1882 wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:35 am
Correct. But why would Russia do it? It makes no sense at all. Also, the journo asks how he'd do it as its on German territory. Nonetheless he's confident it won't happen.

US naval fleet present in baltic sea September 2022 . USS kearserge.
Why wouldn't Russia do it?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by 1882Clarets1882 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:50 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:46 am
Why wouldn't Russia do it?
Because they wouldn't need to. They can simply turn off the taps which they control. Someone's done it. Why wouldn't it be the US? The Rubles doing particularly well off the back of gas sales.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:54 am

1882Clarets1882 wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:50 am
Because they wouldn't need to. They can simply turn off the taps which they control. Someone's done it. Why wouldn't be the US?
But then they run out of money in about a month

I've already said why I think its Russia but it does bear repeating

1) They don't care if they are found out - see Salisbury poisoning

2) They know people will believe "why would they do it"

3) They still supply gas through overland pipes, which is financing their war

4) They hope it will cause the energy market to contract again, and hope that will affect Western support for Ukraine

5) Russian ships and submarines have been training around critical NATO/EU underwater infrastructure for at least the past five years

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by 1882Clarets1882 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:11 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:54 am
But then they run out of money in about a month

I've already said why I think its Russia but it does bear repeating

1) They don't care if they are found out - see Salisbury poisoning

2) They know people will believe "why would they do it"

3) They still supply gas through overland pipes, which is financing their war

4) They hope it will cause the energy market to contract again, and hope that will affect Western support for Ukraine

5) Russian ships and submarines have been training around critical NATO/EU underwater infrastructure for at least the past five years
Points 1, 2 bit silly to be honest.
Points 3 and 4 , gas is "financing their war" so why sabotage a source of finance? They could simply turn off the taps to contract the market to achieve the same ends. Why make it more difficult to resupply in the future.by wrecking infrastructure? It simply does not make sense?

5, USS Kearserge in Baltic September 2022.

Since February, the Rubles being doing well . Why wouldn't USA want to affect the source?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:13 pm

Lyman is looking like it’s nearly encircled.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... ovsAcIA6_g

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:15 pm

1882Clarets1882 wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:11 pm
Points 1, 2 bit silly to be honest.
Points 3 and 4 , gas is "financing their war" so why sabotage a source of finance? They could simply turn off the taps to contract the market to achieve the same ends. Why make it more difficult to resupply in the future.by wrecking infrastructure? It simply does not make sense?

5, USS Kearserge in Baltic September 2022.

Since February, the Rubles being doing well . Why wouldn't USA want to affect the source?
1 and 2 are not "a bit silly"

They actually did that

Explained 3 and 4 already

5 - Are you telling me that a NATO vessel has attacked the energy infrastructure of a NATO member?

If you really believe in 5), then you need some new information sources, and I'd like to see the ones you use at the moment

Remember there are hundreds and thousands of Russian fan boi accounts retweeting Kremlin propoganda, all the time, to try to flood the internet with what are essentially total rubbish

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