Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:50 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:20 pm
Why is it folly?

The pics I'm seeing are T-62 with reactive armor turning up at the front line, towed ZU-23 AA guns etc etc etc

That equipment is almost as old as me, and will suffer disproportionately heavier casualties because its essentially obsolete

The modern stuff that Russia has (or rather had) is heavily dependent on Western tech, all of which is now on the sanctioned list

I can see Russia have a large army v the Ukrainians next year, but will it be as combat effective as the one that invaded in Feb 2022?

I can't see it, and the Ukrainian one is now both better equipped and experienced

I don't see Western arms shipments halting either, because Putin has been upping the rhetoric for the last six months, and it now impossible to ignore (well, apart from people like Corbyn) the threat he poses
Two T90 they lost as well in the last couple of days, looks like they both got stuck rather than destroyed, one looks to be still running as the track is moving.
The rains and mud have started, might have caught these guys out. Once a John Deere turns up that’s two more tanks for Ukraines army.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:51 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:50 pm
Two T90 they lost as well in the last couple of days, looks like they both got stuck rather than destroyed, one looks to be still running as the track is moving.
The rains and mud have started, might have caught these guys out. Once a John Deere turns up that’s two more tanks for Ukraines army.
Russia will have some much needed recovery time during the Autumn rains in October

Will massively restrict any offensive action not along paved roads, so be interesting to see what happens next

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:52 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:58 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:24 pm
Quantity will not beat quality.
In terms of moral, training, reason for being there, equipment, every Ukraine soldier must be worth 10 Russians.
Ask any man on the street, who he'd rather be fighting for, and only a fool would say Russia.
Well quantity certainly beat quality in WWII as far as the Russians were concerned anyway . Their losses were almost beyond comprehension fighting the Germans .Though like you say the quality of arms which we the west can provide them are staggeringly good . To think light infantry can beat tank regiments and air attacks is almost off the scale . However if Putin mobilises and equips 250,000 troops let’s say over the next 6 months it could get far worse . My concerns are Putin annexeing all the areas he’s taken

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:04 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:58 pm
Well quantity certainly beat quality in WWII as far as the Russians were concerned anyway . Their losses were almost beyond comprehension fighting the Germans .Though like you say the quality of arms which we the west can provide them are staggeringly good . To think light infantry can beat tank regiments and air attacks is almost off the scale . However if Putin mobilises and equips 250,000 troops let’s say over the next 6 months it could get far worse . My concerns are Putin annexeing all the areas he’s taken
Again, some context needed here

'41 and up to summer '42, yeah, Russian completely unable to deal with German equipment, training and doctrine

But the Soviet commanders who held their own (Zhukov, Koniev, especially Rokovossiky) and the troops will escaped from encirclement after encirclement provided a core, plus the T-34 and Western aid, and by late 1942, the Germans were exhausted and had lost millions of their best troops

The Russian army that pushed the Germans back to Berlin 1943-45 was pretty well trained, pretty well equipped and pretty well led (certainly in the various Guards formations)

The current Russian Guards units are based on the WWII forefathers, and are living proof that having a famous name is meaningless without proper training, equipment and doctrine

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:05 pm

REUTERS: Orthodox Church leader says Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine will be cleansed of sin

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1574 ... UTRbp_RK-Q

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:07 pm

NEXTA: Edward Snowden received Russian citizenship from Putin, Russian media report.

Will he be mobilized?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/157 ... UTRbp_RK-Q

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:11 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:05 pm
REUTERS: Orthodox Church leader says Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine will be cleansed of sin

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1574 ... UTRbp_RK-Q
Apparently the in joke going around Russia after he announced this is that God has joined NATO

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:15 pm

Just to reinforce the points I'm making

Nothing beats well trained troops on a conventional modern battlefield

Throw in modern equipment which they are familiar with, and high morale and what looks like a good plan and modern logistics system, and Ukraine are going to be hard to stop

If Russia genuinely think that thousands of conscripts with minimal training, outdated equipment and clearly very poor morale are going to change the dynamic, then they are going to suffer a catastrophic military defeat

But they have about a month of mud, then the winter, so they should be able to retrain and re equip after a fashion, but is that delay acceptable to Putin?

I'm not sure

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:21 pm

Just a thought.

After the India/China visits there were numerous reports that Putin wanted a quick end to the war. Then, at odds to that, he mobilised & said the sham referenda would go ahead.

I say this out of hope than expectation, but could it be possible that he announces the Donbas voted to go to Russia & the other regions voted to stay in Ukraine (by the narrowest of margins, of course). Then retreat and deploy his newly mobilised troops to the pre-2014 territory?

Would be somewhat embarrassing but would legitimise his referenda somewhat. And I’m not sure that Zelensky or the West would have the appetite to continue the war thereafter?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:36 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:21 pm
Just a thought.

After the India/China visits there were numerous reports that Putin wanted a quick end to the war. Then, at odds to that, he mobilised & said the sham referenda would go ahead.

I say this out of hope than expectation, but could it be possible that he announces the Donbas voted to go to Russia & the other regions voted to stay in Ukraine (by the narrowest of margins, of course). Then retreat and deploy his newly mobilised troops to the pre-2014 territory?

Would be somewhat embarrassing but would legitimise his referenda somewhat. And I’m not sure that Zelensky or the West would have the appetite to continue the war thereafter?
Can't see it I'm afraid

On the plus side, I still think his threat to use Nukes is nothing new, and a guarantee of world isolation (which would finish any hope of a Russian win)

On the down side, I still think he is convinced that what he is doing is best for Russia, and that the decadent West support can be bought off, or something

The days of finding a solution with Putin having some sort of win to save face have long gone
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by fatboy47 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:42 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:21 pm
Just a thought.

After the India/China visits there were numerous reports that Putin wanted a quick end to the war. Then, at odds to that, he mobilised & said the sham referenda would go ahead.

I say this out of hope than expectation, but could it be possible that he announces the Donbas voted to go to Russia & the other regions voted to stay in Ukraine (by the narrowest of margins, of course). Then retreat and deploy his newly mobilised troops to the pre-2014 territory?

Would be somewhat embarrassing but would legitimise his referenda somewhat. And I’m not sure that Zelensky or the West would have the appetite to continue the war thereafter?

Interesting scenario NC... It'd give him some kind of an out... who knows what's in his mind?
I guess we'll all know soon enough, but I won't be putting my shirt on it.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:47 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:51 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:47 pm
Trying to find the videos, but just found this for now.

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/15 ... WCXva76-ug

Found one

https://twitter.com/geoconfirmed/status ... WCXva76-ug
I'd seen that over the weekend. You can see two chutes pop in the preexisting smoke coming from the ground. Amazed those airmen got out.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:59 pm

Just seen this, backing up what I said earlier.
https://twitter.com/ilvestoomas/status/ ... KqCDueHApw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:21 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:51 pm
I'd seen that over the weekend. You can see two chutes pop in the preexisting smoke coming from the ground. Amazed those airmen got out.
Yep there were a few over the weekend. My point was also around Putin getting involved and the sudden increase in aircraft loses. The Ukrainians now know how to use Manpads and stingers etc. his military commanders understand that you don’t fly over Ukrainians military. I think he has told them to get involved to cover troops and bosh, they get shot down.

If he continues pushing his aircraft forward he is going to lose lots over the coming weeks.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:40 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:59 pm
Just seen this, backing up what I said earlier.
https://twitter.com/ilvestoomas/status/ ... KqCDueHApw
Ramblings of a madman. He didn’t even make any sense.

If you nuke Ukraine pal, the next missile will be on you!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:43 pm

News coming through of new Ukrainian gains

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... KqCDueHApw

And Lyman perhaps encircled soon.

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... KqCDueHApw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:51 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:40 pm
Ramblings of a madman. He didn’t even make any sense.

If you nuke Ukraine pal, the next missile will be on you!
As I said earlier Russia might be relying on the fact Ukraine does not have Nukes and if they only firs them on Ukraine no one else will intervene.

Not say I am right , but it’s a thought about this annexation stuff.

Just trying to read the room.

Lost most of his tanks and armoured vehicles, there no pictures of joining in.

He has sanctioned himself more that the EU could by shutting off the gas supply.

Now he has called up 300,000 to 1.2 million men, who will just be cannon fodder.

Where does he go next, he has gone all in.

I said before he has bet on a hand of royal flush when in fact he holds a pair of twos.

Either he uses Nukes or gets over thrown. IMHO.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:17 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:51 pm
Either he uses Nukes or gets over thrown. IMHO.
I don’t think he’ll nuke, for several reasons:

- I’m not sure his nukes exist/are operable.
- He’ll care about his legacy. I think he knows he’ll be hated worldwide and by large parts of Russia if he does, because the consequences for Russia will be incredibly severe.
- He’ll most likely be killed himself in that scenario. He may as well fall on his sword as give the enemy the satisfaction of taking him out.
- He’s a bully. And I’m my experience they are very insecure and weak people. He will certainly fear the consequences deep down.

He’ll like the talk and fear mongering though.


I think his options now are:

- kill himself like hitler
- let things play out, which is tantamount to waiting for a coup (sure he’d rather die)
- find a way to deescalate and spin it as a stalemate and try to cling on to power (which I think he would)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:31 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:17 pm
I don’t think he’ll nuke, for several reasons:

- I’m not sure his nukes exist/are operable.
- He’ll care about his legacy. I think he knows he’ll be hated worldwide and by large parts of Russia if he does, because the consequences for Russia will be incredibly severe.
- He’ll most likely be killed himself in that scenario. He may as well fall on his sword as give the enemy the satisfaction of taking him out.
- He’s a bully. And I’m my experience they are very insecure and weak people. He will certainly fear the consequences deep down.

He’ll like the talk and fear mongering though.


I think his options now are:

- kill himself like hitler
- let things play out, which is tantamount to waiting for a coup (sure he’d rather die)
- find a way to deescalate and spin it as a stalemate and try to cling on to power (which I think he would)
Let me be really clear.
There is a difference between major Nukes and tactical nukes.

He will only attack Ukraine, no one else. With tactical nukes in the hope they surrender and he then wins.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:36 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:05 pm
REUTERS: Orthodox Church leader says Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine will be cleansed of sin

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1574 ... UTRbp_RK-Q
About as Christian as Ian Paisley.
Some people are capable of twisting religion to meet their own wishes, none of them are true believers. Much like most Russians he's living in a bubble of his own making.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:52 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:31 pm
Let me be really clear.
There is a difference between major Nukes and tactical nukes.

He will only attack Ukraine, no one else. With tactical nukes in the hope they surrender and he then wins.
Honestly don’t think it matters mate. I reckon if he nukes anyone, anywhere, he’s personally a dead man and so is Russia.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:02 pm

We've all seen how there are loads of young men leaving Russia for adjoining countries, I don't think I've seen an estimated number before but just seen- over a quarter of a million. These men will probably be (on average- not saying all) younger, better educated types which must have a detrimental effect on the economy.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 9514523648

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:11 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:02 pm
We've all seen how there are loads of young men leaving Russia for adjoining countries, I don't think I've seen an estimated number before but just seen- over a quarter of a million. These men will probably be (on average- not saying all) younger, better educated types which must have a detrimental effect on the economy.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 9514523648
I read somewhere that since the start of the war, 2-3m people have left Russia. Assuming that’s right & they’re economically active (who make up a smaller proportion of the population as a whole), that’s a massive impact on the economy.

Not all Russians though, including migrants who’d lost work as a result of the sanctions etc.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by CoolClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:19 pm

elwaclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:05 pm
REUTERS: Orthodox Church leader says Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine will be cleansed of sin

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1574 ... UTRbp_RK-Q
Guessing he’s off to Ukraine then?…

🥴🥴🥴
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by CoolClaret » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:56 pm

Came across this YouTube channel on the weekend when I was trying to find some information on the average ‘Russian Psyche’

https://youtube.com/c/1420channel

He asks Russians (of all ages) about their opinions of Putin/the war etc in Moscow and other places in Russia.

There’s a clear generational divide on their opinions the war and the regime, with a lot very apprehensive to appear on camera.

Some people interviewed repeat RT news points pretty much verbatim.

Their state really does a job on some folk, scary to see how brainwashed people can be.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:21 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:16 am

https://twitter.com/TimoVir20213018/sta ... 2759283748

Russian TV live broadcast of new conscripts goes well

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Loyalclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:35 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:16 am
https://twitter.com/TimoVir20213018/sta ... 2759283748

Russian TV live broadcast of new conscripts goes well
Apparently an old video of a jailed protester LancasterClaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:37 am

Loyalclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:35 am
Apparently an old video of a jailed protester LancasterClaret
Cheers mate!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:47 am

Couple of happy Russian squaddies https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 7400507416

Could be a set up I guess but probably accurate the way the Russian military has been organising things.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dushanbe » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:47 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:31 pm
Let me be really clear.
There is a difference between major Nukes and tactical nukes.

He will only attack Ukraine, no one else. With tactical nukes in the hope they surrender and he then wins.
Russia can deploy 'tactical' nuclear weapons of between 5 and 50 kilotons. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 15 kilotons, so please don't down play the destructive capability of these tactical nuclear weapons like they are some kind of souped up conventional bomb, if used it changes everything.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jedi_master » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:54 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:31 pm
Let me be really clear.
There is a difference between major Nukes and tactical nukes.

He will only attack Ukraine, no one else. With tactical nukes in the hope they surrender and he then wins.
Why would he attack Ukraine with a tactical nuke if he sees at least a fifth of it as ‘Russia’? Where would he target with such a device? If it was the areas under assault (I.e, the East and South) which he is in the process of annexing, would that not be a nuke dropped on his ‘own people’ and ‘own country’?

Unless you’re implying he will nuke Kyiv?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:57 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:04 pm
Again, some context needed here

'41 and up to summer '42, yeah, Russian completely unable to deal with German equipment, training and doctrine

But the Soviet commanders who held their own (Zhukov, Koniev, especially Rokovossiky) and the troops will escaped from encirclement after encirclement provided a core, plus the T-34 and Western aid, and by late 1942, the Germans were exhausted and had lost millions of their best troops

The Russian army that pushed the Germans back to Berlin 1943-45 was pretty well trained, pretty well equipped and pretty well led (certainly in the various Guards formations)

The current Russian Guards units are based on the WWII forefathers, and are living proof that having a famous name is meaningless without proper training, equipment and doctrine
The fact that from 43 the Russians inflicted irreversible losses on weakening Germans troops /Air Force /armour etc is because they started manufacturing tanks etc at blinding rate maybe 10 x that of Ger, ( whom imo were always overstretched in manufacturing from 41) backed by huge armies confident generals and starving millions of their own people . Are they prepared to do this again is this issue ? Ie , will or indeed can they seriously ramp up their firepower ? We’re fed propaganda that Vlad was a shaking wreck close to death , possibly true but I still believe they could be extremely dangerous .Ultimately ultra modern firepower should see this through but the expectation that Russia is a spent force is a bit silly .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:12 am

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:57 am
The fact that from 43 the Russians inflicted irreversible losses on weakening Germans troops /Air Force /armour etc is because they started manufacturing tanks etc at blinding rate maybe 10 x that of Ger, ( whom imo were always overstretched in manufacturing from 41) backed by huge armies confident generals and starving millions of their own people . Are they prepared to do this again is this issue ? Ie , will or indeed can they seriously ramp up their firepower ? We’re fed propaganda that Vlad was a shaking wreck close to death , possibly true but I still believe they could be extremely dangerous .Ultimately ultra modern firepower should see this through but the expectation that Russia is a spent force is a bit silly .
Well, they can't

It was Allied grain, allied oil and more important than anything else, allied trucks and jeeps that gave them the edge

They basically stopped manufacturing trucks because the US provided them all

They have to do everything themselves now, and the supply issues they have (completely reliant on the railways) are just going to get worse

And the more civilian vehicles they impound and use, then the less for domestic production and the domestic economy, and that will bring home the reality of the war to millions of currently supportive Russians

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:17 am

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:57 am
We’re fed propaganda that Vlad was a shaking wreck close to death , possibly true but I still believe they could be extremely dangerous .Ultimately ultra modern firepower should see this through but the expectation that Russia is a spent force is a bit silly .
well, he was paranoid about catching Covid, and there is no doubt that the hilarity those pics of him and those massive desks got back to the Russian as he now actually meets people

Has he been near the front line though?

No

Is there any evidence that he's actually looking at this war and seeing what we see?

No

And its not about them being regarded as a spent force, its just that if they are relying on untrained conscripts with outdated equipment to hold off a modern, professional army with good training and high morale, then there are going to be a lot of the poor b**tards in body bags or in Ukrainian POW camps, and all it will do is lengthen the war, and increase the depth of the Russian defeat

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:19 am

Philips O'Brein has just highlighted the only positive to come out of this absolute s**t show btw

It shows just how bad war is for all, and that should remind people (who clearly forgot) what it involves and what it costs

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:35 am

jedi_master wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:54 am
Why would he attack Ukraine with a tactical nuke if he sees at least a fifth of it as ‘Russia’? Where would he target with such a device? If it was the areas under assault (I.e, the East and South) which he is in the process of annexing, would that not be a nuke dropped on his ‘own people’ and ‘own country’?

Unless you’re implying he will nuke Kyiv?
Its a threat

Look, a tactical nuke is essentially just a really, really, really, really big explosion in a small area, and should be used for destroying HQs, rail heads, supply centres, that kind of thing

So somewhere like Kupyansk (an important rail head and supply centre due to railways and road junctions) is a potential target for a tactical nuclear strike

First thing to mention is that unless Russia takes out all the HQs, supply centres etc etc, AND has an army ready to take advantage of the problems that it would cause, then what does it gain Russia?

Second thing to mention is that the US will have almost certainly told Russia that the use of nuclear weapons in Europe will be viewed in about as bad a terms as it can get, and I'll be astonished if China and India have not said similar

The political costs of using them combined with the limited tactical benefits do suggest a bluff but again, it is very hard to read what Putin is willing to do

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:36 am

This made me laugh. The tune is from a programme us older Clarets will remember.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574420187343904772

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:39 am

LeadBelly wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:47 am
Couple of happy Russian squaddies https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 7400507416

Could be a set up I guess but probably accurate the way the Russian military has been organising things.
Find it hard to believe they’d show their faces so openly, whilst calling their commanders, however hacked off.

I saw something this morning reporting to be a loads of Ukrainian captured soldiers. Oddly, all smoking newly lit cigarettes, not really looking like they’d been in battle, no Ukrainian markings and hands sellotaped together 😂

Some of this stuff just can’t be real.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:08 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:58 pm

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 0877177858

Damage to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipes extensive and almost certainly sabotage

Russia determined not to go down quietly it would seem

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:10 pm

https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status ... 8464812033

Russian Pantsir missile system targeting software might need some work

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:18 pm

Goes without saying that directly attacking Europes energy supplies is a dangerous mis calculation by Putin

Almost certainly will swing nations that aren't fully behind rearming Kyi'v into line, including Germany which could unlock a lot more equipment and supplies

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:47 pm

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:33 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:57 am
The fact that from 43 the Russians inflicted irreversible losses on weakening Germans troops /Air Force /armour etc is because they started manufacturing tanks etc at blinding rate maybe 10 x that of Ger, ( whom imo were always overstretched in manufacturing from 41) backed by huge armies confident generals and starving millions of their own people . Are they prepared to do this again is this issue ? Ie , will or indeed can they seriously ramp up their firepower ? We’re fed propaganda that Vlad was a shaking wreck close to death , possibly true but I still believe they could be extremely dangerous .Ultimately ultra modern firepower should see this through but the expectation that Russia is a spent force is a bit silly .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_ar ... rld_War_II

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_co ... rld_War_II

I don't see the '10x that of Germany'. In fact it seems quite remarkable how German increased tank production up to 1944 despite air raids and difficulties with transport and supplies.

I doubt tanks had any more effect then any other items. I would think logistics was the key and the Russians had ever increasing advantages in most areas - manpower, fuel, weapons.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:58 pm
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 0877177858

Damage to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipes extensive and almost certainly sabotage

Russia determined not to go down quietly it would seem
I don't understand or can't believe the Russians would do this, both pipelines have been shutdown, all they need to do is keep the valves closed at source, both pipelines have been full of gas for a while but they're not supplying gas to anyone. If a ceasefire and a request for more gas from Europe occurred during winter as part of an agreement, it was easy to turn the valves to open and start the gas flowing, providing funds to Russia. This action has prevented them from doing that and it can only be an advantage to people outside Russia and the various European offtakers, it is far more advantageous to Ukraine than Russia to carry out this kind of act, and is exactly what I hypothesized they could/may do very early in the conflict.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:46 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:58 pm
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 0877177858

Damage to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipes extensive and almost certainly sabotage

Russia determined not to go down quietly it would seem
In whose interest would this damage be?

Whilst I'm sure the Russians are capable of this sort of damage - remember the underwater tracks off the Swedish coast some years ago for example - it seems an unnecessary act - they've already closed off the NS1 pipeline, and NS2 isn't going to be used for the foreseeable future.

It's a strange incident.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:50 pm

KateR wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:43 pm
I don't understand or can't believe the Russians would do this, both pipelines have been shutdown, all they need to do is keep the valves closed at source, both pipelines have been full of gas for a while but they're not supplying gas to anyone. If a ceasefire and a request for more gas from Europe occurred during winter as part of an agreement, it was easy to turn the valves to open and start the gas flowing, providing funds to Russia. This action has prevented them from doing that and it can only be an advantage to people outside Russia and the various European offtakers, it is far more advantageous to Ukraine than Russia to carry out this kind of act, and is exactly what I hypothesized they could/may do very early in the conflict.
You'll have to back that up Kate

The ruptures are at the bottom of the Baltic sea, and the only way that can happen is by explosives planted by divers from either a boat or a sub, or directly from a sub

I don't see how Ukraine can do that when they haven't got a coastline in the Baltic

Course, there are loads of reports on the various Navy twitter accounts over the past few years about Russian submarines and surface vessels hanging around critical underwater infrastructure for Europe, including gas pipelines

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