Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:33 pm

https://www.army-technology.com/analysi ... d-ukraine/

Analysis of the supply/maintenance issues that Ukraine have with the arrival of (much needed) equipment from NATO armies

Sourcing ammunition and spare parts for the ex-Soviet equipment that equips the majority of the Ukrainian units is going to be a big issue, which could hasten its move towards much more Western equipment

Course, that will take a fair bit of time to sort out

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:35 pm

Javelin strike on a Russian tank

You can clearly see what the Javelin aims for and hits (the more unprotected areas of the tank behind the turret)

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1549867894821064705

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:39 pm

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1550202847681282048

Deal signed to allow the export of Ukrainian grain

Really good news

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:47 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:39 pm
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1550202847681282048

Deal signed to allow the export of Ukrainian grain

Really good news
I'd like to be positive, but why do you trust Putin to stick to any agreement.
I wouldn't trust him as far as I could spit.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:55 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:47 pm
I'd like to be positive, but why do you trust Putin to stick to any agreement.
I wouldn't trust him as far as I could spit.
Its gives him some good kudos with countries outside the alliance against him

Its in his interests as Ukraine essentially has unlimited credit from the west, so its not like he can strangle the Ukrainian economy

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:09 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:55 pm
Its gives him some good kudos with countries outside the alliance against him

Its in his interests as Ukraine essentially has unlimited credit from the west, so its not like he can strangle the Ukrainian economy
I get that, and I'm not trying to be argumentative, but you are judging him as a rational man, and time has shown that he is far from that.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:12 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:09 pm
I get that, and I'm not trying to be argumentative, but you are judging him as a rational man, and time has shown that he is far from that.
Oh don't worry I get that

I think he's rational, but he's listened to what he wants to hear for too long and thats why he made the miscalculation that he did

But this is a very rational act, and its a win/win for him

He needs all the international support he can get
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:26 pm

Sorry if this has already been posted …. Broken Ties, families with opposing views and Russian propaganda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qmQs2LbnaE

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:59 am

https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/1 ... 5255944192

Ukrainian tanks being transported by train

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:06 pm

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status ... 5227687937

US military reckons that 85% of the Russian military is involved in Ukraine

They must be completely down to the bare bones everywhere else

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:01 pm

I saw this Russian tv piece a few days ago but I couldnt evaluate whether it was real or a Micky-take on the Russian way of doing things by the Ukrainians.
It appears there was something on Russian TV about how families can get some benefit from having their sons killed - via lump-sum payment. In this instance enabling them to buy a new Lada for that trip to the cemetery.
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1549163986075131904

It's good that families get some recompense but the tone of this coverage is very crass/very Russian.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:06 pm
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status ... 5227687937

US military reckons that 85% of the Russian military is involved in Ukraine

They must be completely down to the bare bones everywhere else
Hopefully some of the people seeking freedom from Moscow will take advantage and maybe another front might open up.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:54 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:13 pm
Hopefully some of the people seeking freedom from Moscow will take advantage and maybe another front might open up.
My thoughts exactly.

Although I wouldn’t have thought the Russians would be that stupid. But you never know.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:55 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:06 pm
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status ... 5227687937

US military reckons that 85% of the Russian military is involved in Ukraine

They must be completely down to the bare bones everywhere else
If all that is true, a massively uplifting read. Especially about HIMARS taking out “100 high value targets”.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:00 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:55 pm
If all that is true, a massively uplifting read. Especially about HIMARS taking out “100 high value targets”.
I'd be inclined to trust the figures, if only because the US/NATO signit will be as good as it gets

Essentially when you are seeing the Russian fielding tanks that were made closer to the end of WWII than now its hard not to disagree that they are really struggling

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:09 pm

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/4-q ... -strategy/

Good opinion piece on where the West goes from here

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:09 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:00 pm
I'd be inclined to trust the figures, if only because the US/NATO signit will be as good as it gets

Essentially when you are seeing the Russian fielding tanks that were made closer to the end of WWII than now its hard not to disagree that they are really struggling
Surely with all these ammo dumps and targets being hit, the Ukrainians will want to try and attack them while they’re wounded soon?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:06 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:09 pm
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/4-q ... -strategy/

Good opinion piece on where the West goes from here
The implication is that we will have to spend more on weapons and that of course means less on other things. It also means that the weapons industry will expand and perhaps stay expanded with all that implies - not just jobs but a more weaponised world.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jul 23, 2022 8:36 am

Hipper wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:06 am
The implication is that we will have to spend more on weapons and that of course means less on other things. It also means that the weapons industry will expand and perhaps stay expanded with all that implies - not just jobs but a more weaponised world.
I think I said on Page two of this thread that the invasion would change everything

It is essentially back to the Cold War and that means increased defence spending
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sat Jul 23, 2022 10:30 am

Russia took massive losses yesterday - 240 troops according to the Ukrainians. Whilst I know not everyone trusts their data, I’d assume there’s some relativity in the numbers.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:16 am

NewClaret wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 10:30 am
Russia took massive losses yesterday - 240 troops according to the Ukrainians. Whilst I know not everyone trusts their data, I’d assume there’s some relativity in the numbers.
The Ukrainians encircled a town in the south yesterday, various claims of up to 2000 Russian soldiers cut off.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:23 am

Well worth a watch this. It’s the speak the truth podcast.this guy was fighting in Ukraine from the start of May. From what I read yesterday he was with the Dirty Dozen who post on Twitter. He must have an angel watching over him as he should really be dead. Really interesting podcast.

https://youtu.be/GOqk-OlNBw0

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:33 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:23 am
Well worth a watch this. It’s the speak the truth podcast.this guy was fighting in Ukraine from the start of May. From what I read yesterday he was with the Dirty Dozen who post on Twitter. He must have an angel watching over him as he should really be dead. Really interesting podcast.

https://youtu.be/GOqk-OlNBw0
Very interesting, such a modest laid back blokecas well.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:12 pm

So Moscow and Kyiv sign an agreement yesterday whereby Russia agreed not to target ports while grain shipments were in transit.

And then this morning...two missiles hit the city of Odesa in the early hours of Saturday morning, Ukraine's military said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:35 pm
Javelin strike on a Russian tank

You can clearly see what the Javelin aims for and hits (the more unprotected areas of the tank behind the turret)

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1549867894821064705
quite surprised at how slow the Jav travels towards it, very accurate :shock:
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:09 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Cirrus_Minor » Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:13 pm

Hipper wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:06 am
The implication is that we will have to spend more on weapons and that of course means less on other things. It also means that the weapons industry will expand and perhaps stay expanded with all that implies - not just jobs but a more weaponised world.
Interesting in that the cold War was essentially the west arming up to save the 'free world' from Soviet communism. Now its to save our free world capitalism from Russia's version. So all this time the we were all prepared to blow ourselves up, many times over, basically because NATO / USA don't like Russia in whatever form political guise they have.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:52 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-strip ... 47124.html
Interesting article on Russian drones and on how they can bypass sanctions to get components.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:53 pm

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:13 pm
Interesting in that the cold War was essentially the west arming up to save the 'free world' from Soviet communism. Now its to save our free world capitalism from Russia's version. So all this time the we were all prepared to blow ourselves up, many times over, basically because NATO / USA don't like Russia in whatever form political guise they have.
Thats an interesting point of view

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 2:13 am

https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status ... stEFWRZ65g

My first pictures I have seen of Stormer HVM in theatre. Interesting points to note
3 HVM and 5 Martlet loaded
They have the IFF antenna on top of the launcher (the square things)
Unless they have changed it, the ADAD (Alerting Device) seems to be missing ( I can make a done shape where it should it could be the cover but it looks clear to me.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:55 am

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:13 pm
Interesting in that the cold War was essentially the west arming up to save the 'free world' from Soviet communism. Now its to save our free world capitalism from Russia's version. So all this time the we were all prepared to blow ourselves up, many times over, basically because NATO / USA don't like Russia in whatever form political guise they have.
It was always about Russia in whatever guise - even in the days of the Tsars.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sun Jul 24, 2022 7:03 am

ecc wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:12 pm
So Moscow and Kyiv sign an agreement yesterday whereby Russia agreed not to target ports while grain shipments were in transit.

And then this morning...two missiles hit the city of Odesa in the early hours of Saturday morning, Ukraine's military said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392
I think it quite possible that this wasn't deliberate but the nature of war.

Putin doesn't press the button to launch these rockets. There will be a list of targets and priorities which will have been agreed at the highest levels perhaps. His military people will then work their way through those lists. Odessa is clearly on that list and it just happened that the timing of this attack was already planned a while back.

I agree it's possible that Putin ordered this attack directly - I've no idea how long an order from Putin takes to reach the men on the ground and for them to activate it.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Top Claret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:31 am

We have kept giving Putin the benefit of the doubt that is the reason why Ukrainian or in this mess. Putin knows exactly what he is doing and as no intention of honouring any treaty or agreement.

His war as forced the gas and oil price higher so that the oil sanctions have had little or no impact on the economy (rouble unchanged)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:05 am

Top Claret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:31 am
We have kept giving Putin the benefit of the doubt that is the reason why Ukrainian or in this mess. Putin knows exactly what he is doing and as no intention of honouring any treaty or agreement.

His war as forced the gas and oil price higher so that the oil sanctions have had little or no impact on the economy (rouble unchanged)
I'm not sure I see any benefit for Russia in reneging on a treaty agreed with Turkey and the UN that will benefit mostly non-Western allied countries. He will lose all these potential friends for no purpose whatsoever.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Top Claret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:27 am

Hipper wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:05 am
I'm not sure I see any benefit for Russia in reneging on a treaty agreed with Turkey and the UN that will benefit mostly non-Western allied countries. He will lose all these potential friends for no purpose whatsoever.

I see no benefit for Russia in Putin's war with the Ukrainian.

Putin as no friends in the West, the rest of the world don't care, they will just keep taking his cheap oil and gas.

This is a war Putin is waging with Europe and the rest of the world watches from a distance. China and India are getting cut priced Russian oil and gas, whilst the oil producing nations are raking in the dollars through the high fuel prices.

Winter months away and the flaky EU especially the Germans, French and Italians will be concerned about winter energy. I wouldn't be surprised if the EU are now doing back handed deals with Putin for winters gas and oil. You won't see any of the promised arms and weaponry arriving in the Ukrainian from Germany I can assure you of that its a smoke screen

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:11 pm

Kyiv Independent: Ambassador Brink: US 'seriously considering' declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said on July 24 that Washington was looking into the decision, but it has to be "carefully analyzed in accordance with American law."

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... RzYfMKvaQw

Also…

A resolution calling on Secretary of State Antony Blinken to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism was registered in the U.S. Senate on May 10.

On June 23, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee supported the resolution.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... RzYfMKvaQw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:25 pm

Hipper wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 7:03 am
I think it quite possible that this wasn't deliberate but the nature of war.

Putin doesn't press the button to launch these rockets. There will be a list of targets and priorities which will have been agreed at the highest levels perhaps. His military people will then work their way through those lists. Odessa is clearly on that list and it just happened that the timing of this attack was already planned a while back.

I agree it's possible that Putin ordered this attack directly - I've no idea how long an order from Putin takes to reach the men on the ground and for them to activate it.
100% guarantee that it was ordered by Putin, to show the world that Russia isn't constrained by other states, and does what it wants

realpolitik

It doesn't mean that they won't stick to the agreement by the way, but they will attack grain ships if they think it is in their interests

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:33 pm

Top Claret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:27 am
I see no benefit for Russia in Putin's war with the Ukrainian.

Putin as no friends in the West, the rest of the world don't care, they will just keep taking his cheap oil and gas.

This is a war Putin is waging with Europe and the rest of the world watches from a distance. China and India are getting cut priced Russian oil and gas, whilst the oil producing nations are raking in the dollars through the high fuel prices.

Winter months away and the flaky EU especially the Germans, French and Italians will be concerned about winter energy. I wouldn't be surprised if the EU are now doing back handed deals with Putin for winters gas and oil. You won't see any of the promised arms and weaponry arriving in the Ukrainian from Germany I can assure you of that its a smoke screen
Look, can you keep the Daily Mail opinion pieces out of this please?

The Grain deal already allows Russia to bypass some of its stuff via sanctions, and though that isn't ideal, the idea of a famine in Africa because of the West refusal to allow Russia some crumbs isn't one that anyone wants to see

Its been said on here numerous times, but its worth repeating - the flaky EU nations are amongst the biggest supporters of Ukraine, certainly in armaments, and the French Ceasar SP artillery in particular (because it out ranges anything the Russians have got)

Germany is lagging behind, but there are good (and bad!) reasons for this, and what they have promised of a non-offensive nature has arrived on time (helmets, flak jackets etc)

And again, it is worth saying Russia can cut off the oil and gas to Europe, and its economy will collapse long before any of the ones in the West do
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:37 pm

Anyone know how Germany are doing on reducing reliance on Russian fuel? I thought they said they’d do it by this winter? Or am I mistaken on that?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:49 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:16 am
The Ukrainians encircled a town in the south yesterday, various claims of up to 2000 Russian soldiers cut off.
280 troops killed, 14 tanks and 13 APVs destroyed yesterday. Much higher than normal, so sounds like this battle is ongoing.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:52 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:37 pm
Anyone know how Germany are doing on reducing reliance on Russian fuel? I thought they said they’d do it by this winter? Or am I mistaken on that?
Building two LPG terminals to get natural gas from the Gulf/US

Turning back on the coal fired powers stations that are in reserve

The longer Russia resists the urge to turn off the taps, the longer the EU will be able to cope due to a stringent contingency plan (already posted on here)

But it will be a tough winter for all of us if Russia decides to do it (but not as tough as it would be in Russia)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:58 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:37 pm
Anyone know how Germany are doing on reducing reliance on Russian fuel? I thought they said they’d do it by this winter? Or am I mistaken on that?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... hout-power

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Paul Waine » Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:05 pm

That's a valuable link, bfcjg. Thanks for posting.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:10 pm

Top Claret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:00 pm
Keep your Green Nett zero socialist politics where they belong with the kids who know no better on the Lancaster University campus

Final word







Do one Snow Flake
Just pointing out facts mate

No need to get all grumpy about it

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:10 pm

Top Claret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:00 pm
Keep your Green Nett zero socialist politics where they belong with the kids who know no better on the Lancaster University campus

Final word







Do one Snow Flake
This is a very important thread of interest to numerous posters,please can we keep it informed and objective, name calling risks getting it locked and quite frankly your opinion of a fellow Claret who has provided very incisive comment and knowledge is totally out of order.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:17 pm

NEXTA: The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced that the strike in Odesa was carried out on the territory of a shipyard.

They claim that as a result of the strike, a Ukrainian warship and a warehouse of Harpoon missiles were destroyed.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... RzYfMKvaQw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:21 pm

Thanks bfcjg. Some shocking electricity access figures there!
This user liked this post: bfcjg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:25 pm
100% guarantee that it was ordered by Putin, to show the world that Russia isn't constrained by other states, and does what it wants

realpolitik

It doesn't mean that they won't stick to the agreement by the way, but they will attack grain ships if they think it is in their interests
When I suggested that a few days back, you said he wouldn't.....

The only thing we can be sure of, where Putin is concerned, is that you cannot trust him as far as you could spit. Bartering with him is a pointless exercise, which is why Macron needs to stop talking to him. The only thing it signifies to Moscow, is that they are getting to us.

NATO should step in and provide a Naval escort for the grain ships, and defend them from any attack. So long as they don't dock in Ukraine, Putin might not like it, but there is very little he could do about it. The West just have to point out they are making sure that HIS agreement is honoured.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:36 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:08 pm
When I suggested that a few days back, you said he wouldn't.....

The only thing we can be sure of, where Putin is concerned, is that you cannot trust him as far as you could spit. Bartering with him is a pointless exercise, which is why Macron needs to stop talking to him. The only thing it signifies to Moscow, is that they are getting to us.

NATO should step in and provide a Naval escort for the grain ships, and defend them from any attack. So long as they don't dock in Ukraine, Putin might not like it, but there is very little he could do about it. The West just have to point out they are making sure that HIS agreement is honoured.
I was wrong!

NATO can't escort the ships, as that is a step too far I think

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:36 pm

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 4430472192

Philiips O'Brien summary from this morning

Seems pretty spot on

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